Coach: Anthony Lynn 6 PPG
QB: Patrick Mahomes 26 PPG
It’s time to see what rocket arm can do. Surrounded by elite offensive weapons and coached by a QB guru, Patrick Mahomes was placed in the perfect situation to succeed. He brings a dual-threat ability that will increase his weekly upside and floor, something that can’t be discounted as we routinely see those types finish at the top of our rankings all the time. (Newton in ‘15 and Wilson in ‘17) There’s some concern that Mahomes comes with inconsistency issues as well as a tough schedule. These are caked into his 26 PPG projection. His upside is the best QB in the IFL.
RB/WR/TE: Todd Gurley 31 PPG, Jimmy Graham 15 PPG, Bilal Powell 14 PPG, Nelson Agholor 14, Jordy Nelson 12 PPG (6th men: Kenny Golladay 11 PPG, Samaje Perine 11 PPG, Tyler Higbee 11 PPG)
This time last year, Todd Gurley was regarded by some as an overrated player. He was inefficient in Jeff Fisher’s scheme and was rarely utilized in the passing game. 2018 results changed everything. The All-Pro finished with an otherworldly 500 points which resulted in a cool 3-year $46 million contract from DJ. McVay’s offense changed everything for him. The offensive line took a major step forward, led by left tackle veteran Andrew Whitworth. Gurley rarely left the field and even more importantly maintained his health. No running back has finished back to back seasons as the number one rusher, but Gurley is as good a bet as any to accomplish the feat. Only 24 when the season starts, he’s got a lot of points ahead of him.
There was a legitimate conversation a long time ago that asked whether Jimmy Graham or Rob Gronkowski was the best tight end in the world. Unfortunately, both have dealt with career-threatening injuries, as have many tight ends, and Graham, in particular, has seen it affect his production. The Seahawks finally started using Graham correctly in 2017, spraying him with targets in the red zone. After electing to leave in free agency, he signed with Green Bay, which isn’t a better landing spot for a tight end. Green Bay hasn’t had a factor at that position in years and needs another red zone presence with Devante Adams. The touchdowns should be there, but will the receptions and yardage? That will determine Graham’s upside, but at the very least he’s a solid 4/5 starter.
In his typical timeshare, Bilal Powell’s usage doesn’t appear it will change from the last couple of seasons. He will be the change of pace back with a couple of receptions sprinkled in every week. Powell, for a good part of the last couple of seasons, produced more efficiently than ancient Matt Forte, but for some reason never got the nod to start. There have also been rumors of the Jets moving on from Powell. Whatever the case may be, he’s a decent bye-week fill-in with Crowell getting the majority of the work.
Nelson Agholor’s third-year breakout came right after a time where the NFL may have never drafted another USC wide receiver. All of a sudden two others produced in addition to Agholor and the curse was broken. Curses aside, Agholor developed a rapport with MVP candidate Carson Wentz and will be in line for an uptick in receptions if Alshon Jeffrey isn’t ready for the regular season. His 14 PPG mark from 2017 is a safe projection.
Is Jordy Nelson’s 12 PPG projection too low? Perhaps, but with Jordy showing a significant decline in play last year and joining an offense that couldn’t supply any quality receivers let alone two in 2017 doesn’t inspire much confidence. I’ve heard from Josh’s FUPA or game speed charts thingy that Jordy was still playing at an above average speed, so that fun. Nelson’s outlook relies heavily on Carr and whether he can keep this offense alive. 2018 is shaping up to be a make or break year for Carr and will most likely show us if he’s a long-term starter at QB.
PK: Robbie Gould 11 PPG
PN: Marquette King 11 PPG
DT: Gerald McCoy 12 PPG
Good ol’ Gerald is gonna eat like a beast this year with possibly the best defensive line he’s ever had. Hopefully, that projection can be accurate as it will help McCoy have open opportunities for sacks. The annual Pro-Bowler has dealt with horrid supporting casts his entire career despite holding down the 3-tech spot for 7 years. He’s a top 10 DT option and that isn’t going to change heading into this year.
DE: Jurrell Casey 13 PPG, Robert Quinn 12 PPG
Jurrell Casey has recently seen himself in the news for stating he will be kneeling to protest police brutality to the African American community, but don’t ever overlook the Pro-Bowl caliber player. Casey’s annual value has set as a solid DE2 as he doesn’t have a high ceiling as a 3-4 DE. He’s still more than viable, however, as he’s an elite real-life player.
Robert Quinn hasn’t been a startable option for years but finally reclaims his DE designation after being cast off to Miami. He should be on the field as much as possible to bookend Cameron Wake and Co. Quinn needs to reclaim his elite production days or he could end up a part of the dreadful Miami end rotation. If he ends up a part of the rotation, he will need to be hyper-efficient to be a startable option.
LB: Deion Jones 19 PPG, Jamie Collins 15 PPG, Jarrad Davis 15 PPG, Darius Leonard 15 PPG
Deion Jones is also on his way to being considered one of the best linebackers in the NFL and he’s already there in dynasty. The cliché put on Jones is he’s the modern-day linebacker at a petite 6’1 222 lbs. At only 23-years-old, Jones is going to hold a valuable position in our game for years. He’s solid in every facet in the games and someone any GM would be lucky to build around.
The forgotten man Jamie Collins was an elite asset as recent as 2016, but an injury-plagued and ineffective 2017 saw him tumbling the linebacking ranks in dynasty. His role in Cleveland’s defense is peculiar, as he’s the SLB for the Browns, but is an efficient tackler that will be asked to rush the passer instead of dropping into coverage. Collins was at the 15 PPG mark when he was traded to the Browns and before he endured a season-ending injury in 2017, and that’s where he will be projected for this year.
Jarrad Davis is the man in the middle of the Lions new defensive scheme under Matt Patricia. The position is a decent one for fantasy production and Davis will be a serviceable LB2 for the foreseeable future. Davis struggled a bit last year with efficiency and health, but positive reports of a step forward is expected in year two.
Darius Leonard came into the draft as a linebacker sleeper and he left a first round pick in the IFL. That’s the world we live in the IFL where linebackers are extremely valuable as they take up a large chunk of our starting lineup and weekly points. It’s pretty simple with Leonard, if he starts, he’s going to vacuum up tackles on a terrible Colts’ defense. The upside for Leonard is immense if he can be a competent backer. His draft pedigree suggests the Colts are ready for him to start right away.
CB: Vontae Davis 13 PPG, Malcolm Butler 11 PPG
At one point in time, Vontae Davis was viewed as a borderline elite corner, but injuries have derailed his career. Davis will play opposite of Tre’Davious White, who finished 2nd in AP’s defensive rookie of the year rankings. If White is perceived as an elite corner, Davis will be the one targeted by offensive coordinators. You know what that means.
Malcolm Butler comes from the friendly IDP confines of New England, that routinely churns out top 16 corners in our league. Butler now plays in Tennessee, where he just won’t pickup the same stats as he did in his previous home. As a full-time starter, he’s good to go as a solid weekly option.
S: Reshad Jones 16 PPG, Tyrann Mathieu 11 PPG
Reshad Jones has been the best safety for fantasy the last few years and that’s not going to change as long as Miami provides a weak linebacking corps and defensive line ahead of him. Jones is tasked with regularly cleaning up the ineptitude of the players in front of him and regularly plays in the box. A small concern was when TJ McDonald returned from injury, Jones moved to free safety. With Minkah Fitzpatrick and TJ McDonald in the fold now, it’s important to watch how Jones is used in the preseason. He could be in line for a huge regression, but we don’t know until his role is defined.
After being released for not accepting a paycut, the Honey Badger’s second NFL chapter start in Houston, which hasn’t produced a startable safety in at least a half decade. Nothing has changed from their unfriendly IDP scheme, which is a downgrade from his hybrid safety/nickelback role from last season. He will be playing deep on the vast majority of snaps, and will be a bye-week fill-in type.
Off: San Francisco 49ers 11 PPG
PPG: 303
Outlook: It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to recognize DJordan’s offense is donkey poo poo outside of Gurley and Graham, but DJ boasts a top unit at linebacker and another stud at safety. His defense is the strength of his team, with the only real weakness coming at the 2nd safety spot. This is a very DJ team, with studs, but a lack of depth at various positions. In 2018, the offense is going to be a revolving door of options and perhaps trading a linebacker or defensive end for a solid offensive piece is in the cards before the start of the season. A sidenote, if Gurley goes down, DJ’s PPG shoots down from 303 to a fun 283, the same as Will’s.
W-L: 8-8
