Coach: Mike Vrabel 6 PPG
QB: Kyler Murray 33 PPG
There are a wide variety of mobile quarterbacks electrifying the modern-day NFL. It’s becoming the norm, especially at the top of the fantasy football ranks for there to be a mobile component to a signal caller’s game. Growing up, there was no question Michael Vick was the most electric player in the NFL. Kyler Murray is the closest to Vick I’ve seen since his time in Atlanta. (Yes, Lamar and Mahomes are both incredible too.) Murray has dealt with a bit of some offseason drama with his precarious contract situation but is locked into a decent spot in Arizona for the foreseeable future. With his insane rushing upside, he has an overall QB1 ceiling. Through a full 17 games, he’ll run 100 times and eclipse 4,000 yards through the air. When he’s finally able to stay healthy without dealing with any nagging injuries, it’s very possible he’ll bring in an MVP. He’s a locked-in top 5 option.
RB/WR/TE: Alvin Kamara 27 PPG, Kennan Allen 18 PPG, Breece Hall 16 PPG, Michael Thomas 16 PPG, Mike Williams 16 PPG 6th men: Jerry Jeudy 15 PPG, Allen Robinson 15 PPG, Corey Davis 13 PPG, Robbie Anderson 9 PPG
There are few other running backs that have showcased the 30 PPG upside Kamas displays. This largely comes from this insane TD production, like in 2020, but he still delivers a dual threat skill set few possess. Kamara has been the engine of the Saints for the past two seasons on offense, as their entire unit has struggled with injuries. Outside of Kamara missing a month, the Saints were without their record-setting receiver Michael Thomas and starting QB Jameis Winston for most of the season. 27 PPG is the benchmark, but AK’s season has numerous red flags. His skill set as a rusher is suspect. His 1.5 yards after contact is abysmal and ranked 46th in the NFL. His two truly elite seasons came with insane touchdown productions with 16 and 14 TDs on the ground. (2018 and 2020). If his opportunity stays stagnant, AK will likely stay in the mid-high 20s in PPG. Fingers crossed any potential suspension won’t come to pass as well.
2021 was another quality season for Keenan Allen, who profiles as one of the best back-end starters for championship contending teams. His target share on the pass-happy Chargers are what PPR dreams are made of. His annual total targets dating back to 2017: 159, 137, 150, 147 and 149. He’s safe, secure, and not injury prone. Still tethered to one of the best QBs in the game, Allen is primed to age gracefully into his early 30s. There isn’t another serious receiving threat on this team that could quell his opportunity. Allen is one of the easiest projections in fantasy football with his copy/paste production from the past 5 years. We know who he is and that’s a fringe top 10 WR.
Breece Hall’s profile is largely what you want to see for an incoming running back. He was the centerpiece of a competent Iowa State offense, providing a dual-threat, home run ability that can very well translate into elite fantasy production. The two items that stuck out were his 99% athletic score from his combine workout metrics and his robust 82 receptions, 734 yards and 6 touchdowns. All that being said, my gut doesn’t love Breece. When watching him, I just don’t see an elite runner, but he has quality moments. By far the most serious issue is the landing spot, which is not being not about nearly enough. Head coach Mike LaFleur will certainly be utilizing a timeshare situation in New York with both Michael Carter and Hall factoring in. While a parallel can be made to Matt LaFleur’s offense in Green Bay, the Jets won’t hold a candle to the Aaron Rodgers-led results. The hype on Breece is warranted, but the ceiling is probably closer to David Montgomery than the Zeke/Najee spectrum. How his opportunity shakes out will be critical.
We’ll never see Michael Thomas ever resemble anything close to his 27 PPG production from 2019, but it’s very possible he’ll slide into being a serviceable PPR option again. Thomas has barely played in two years and it’s not wise to expect him to be an elite option with an improved receiving room around him. There was also the fact Drew Brees could barely throw beyond 10 yards, meshing with MT’s slant delux profile to a T. I’m hoping for an attitude shift from this drama queen and perhaps we can see a return to relevancy from this once elite WR. I fear the bottom may fall out and we could see him move on from the Saints if any other potential drama pops up. Fingers crossed he’s 100% healed from his foot injury and by all indications, that is certainly the case.
It’s been a slow climb to the 100+ targets for jump ball threat Mike Williams, but he finally was able to deliver a startable fantasy season for his GMs. While he’s still a bit boom/bust, he delivers quality weeks, especially when the target share is there. As a fantasy asset, I’m not a big fan of Williams, as he scored less than 10 points in 7 of his 16 weeks. (Including 3 games under 5.2 points.) The TD upside is certainly there and there is room for growth at the expense of say, touchdown regression candidate Austin Ekeler. That being said, the target pecking order with the Chargers is clear and Mike Williams plays second fiddle. While Williams PPG points to a 4/5 starter, I’d be most comfortable having him as an elite bye-week filler. (And certainly playing him in shootouts.)
PK: Justin Tucker 10 PPG
PN: Blake Gillikin 9 PPG
DT: DeForest Buckner 18 PPG
It feels like DeForest Buckner has been in the NFL for a millennia, but he’s only heading into his 7th season. He has been a pillar for quality defensive lines and annually a projected top 5 DT. The recent DT tackle boost certainly made him a more valuable commodity, which boosted his PPG to an elite 18 PPG. After the shocking trade to Indianapolis two years ago, Buckner has not missed a beat with back to back seasons of 9.5 and 7 sacks with over 50 total tackles. He’s one of the best interior pass rushers in the game and that won’t be going away as he heads into his late 20s. He’s locked in as a top tier option and he may be on a Hall of Fame trajectory.
DE: Myles Garrett 18 PPG, Chase Young 14 PPG (Emmanuel Ogbah 14 PPG)
While TJ Watt received the fanfare for setting the all time sack record, Myles Garrett was matching him with 52 total pressures. Staying on the field has been a bit of an issue for Myles, as he’s struggled a bit with injuries and hitting a redneck in the face with his helmet. What holds Myles back from the Watt/Heyward/Donald tier is his total tackles, which has never cleared 60 in a season. It’s more a product of the scheme than his skill, but it’s worth noting when making a tiebreaker between assets. That being said, he’s one of the few EDGEs with 60 point upside and will win his GMs weeks. He’s a no doubt star and the best may be yet to come.
Yikes. Chase Young’s stock is tumbling faster than Enron with his pathetic 2021 showing. His 1.5 sacks through 9 games were disappointing, barely producing as a bye-week filler. His torn ACL made matters critically bad as now he’s still sitting on the PUP list recovering from the serious 2nd half injury. What we get from Chase Young moving forward is a major question mark. Some GMs have elected to sell high and avoid the risk that comes with his recovery. As it stands, he’s questionable for week 1 and his return to IDP startability may not come til 2023.
LB: Fred Warner 17 PPG, David Long 17 PPG, Quincy Williams 15 PPG Matt Milano 15 PPG
Fred Warner is consistent as they come. While the regular season wasn’t his best, Warner elevated his game in the playoffs and was lauded for his play to get the 9ers to the NFC Championship game. (And a couple plays away from the Super Bowl) Fred’s total tackle numbers leave a little to be desired to be in the annual top 10 conversation, but he’s rock solid with his opportunity. He’ll deliver a few big plays and at least 130+ tackles. Lock him in for low-end LB1 numbers with upside for more.
You may not have been paying attention, but David Long was a full time backer for the Titans from weeks 2 – 9 before a season ending injury to his hamstring. He has been a full participant in training camp and he’s one of the biggest breakout backers heading into 2022. The 23-year-old was hamstrung by Jayon Brown and Rashaan Evans when drafted two years ago, but will be the leading tackler for Tennessee if all goes according to plan. He was a machine in the middle of their defense, with five straight weeks of over 20 points. He’s a bit undersized at 5’11 227 lbs and fingers crossed his body can stay fit.
This may be a bit of a hot take, but it appears that Quincy Williams is poised for a full-time linebacker role for the Jets. Not only that, but there’s chatter he could turn into a Pro-Bowl caliber linebacker this season too. As it stands, Williams will play the strongside when they play in three linebacker sets and then he’ll stay on the field in passing situations. This is subject to change, but the hype around Quincy is growing by the day. Adding on, Quincy was not chopped liver in 2021 either, he finished as the LB23, often on part time snaps. This could be the breakout player no one is talking about, folks. At 15 PPG, he’s sitting as a LB2 with upside for more if he can provide some big plays. ***A bit of an update since this was written about a month ago, with Kwon Alexander signing with the Jets. Kwon’s signing likely affects Hamsah Nasirldeen and Jamien Sherwood’s role versus Quincy’s. Quincy will likely still stay on the field for all three downs with Kwon leaving the field, but the situation is a bit precarious. As it stands, I’m regressing Quincy down a bit from 17 to 15 PPG.
It was a step back statistically for Matt Milano, who didn’t necessarily have a bad season in real life, but was not what his GMs had in mind for a full-time player. From a PPG perspective, it was his worst season since his part time rookie year. I’m hopeful he’ll be able to progress a bit into the 100+ tackle range, but it boils down to he’s just not a proficient tackle producer. He’s a fringe top 32 option even with his full time role with back-end starter production.
CB: Desmond King 13 PPG, Kenny Moore 11 PPG
Desmond King has been an IDP mainstay since his incredible 4 sack rookie year in 2017. While he’s never replicated that feat, he’s still produced ample production, including a touchdown every season sans 2021. He was traded midseason to the Titans and didn’t miss a beat, producing numerous 20+ point games on his way to a CB4 finish. Now with the Texans, it appears that he’ll be producing quality numbers off the back of a slot corner role and punt return bonus. Keep him in your top 16.
I love Kenny Moore, but with the scheme change, I’m a bit worried his IDP star power is about to take a major step back. The shift from Matt Eberflus to Gus Bradley will likely quell his production, especially in the total tackle department. His absurd 92 total tackles and 4 total interceptions resulted in a CB1 finish. The UDFA from Valdosta State is electrifying, but I expect a major regression from the scheme alone.
S: Jayron Kearse 15 PPG, Justin Reid 13 PPG (Xavier Woods 13 PPG)
Jayron Kearse came out of nowhere to snag the strong safety role in Dallas and quietly posted a 250-point season. The Dan Quinn box role provides Kearse ample opportunity for production. Starting a rocky career in Minnesota, Kearse found his footing after a heated training camp battle. While he’s still not locked in long-term for Dallas, he posted quality grades across the board according to PFF. Kearse is slated for another stellar season and is the type of safety that can provide incredible weeks when he hits on big plays. The tackle floor is what you hope for from a safety.
Justin Reid didn’t just walk — he ran out of the Texans’ locker room. I couldn’t imagine the atrocities he witnessed as a member of that football team. Now with a Super Bowl contending Chiefs, it’s easy to slide him into Tyrann Mathieu’s old role. Reid has played mostly free safety, but has dabbled as a box safety from time to time. Mathieu played all over the field, including over 700 snaps at slot corner and in the box. While this role can’t be guaranteed, the outlook is currently Juan Thornhill playing deep while Reid plays closer to the line of scrimmage. Bryan Cook may play a factor, but he directly projects to have Daniel Sorenson’s responsibilities.
Off: Arizona Cardinals 14 PPG
PPG: 331
W-L: 11-6
The moment Derrick Henry went down, the intention was to build another quality team and it’s safe to say mission accomplished. With the #1 overall rookie in tow, the future looks bright and there is depth for days on offense, providing potential flexibility to fill holes as they pop up. The recent trade-up for Kamara provides the star necessary to compete for a championship, providing he can get through the week 14 bye where he’ll be without AK, Michael Thomas and DeForest Buckner. It’s shaping up to be another blood bath in the talented AFC South and Jason is no doubt in the thick of it.
