To start looking at our next big off season event, Nils and I teamed up to look at the free agency landscape on the AFC side. We estimate around 322m will be available for the AFC to fill some gaps in rosters and make a run at pushing Tennessee out of the Championship chair. That cash will come in handy as 1,150 free agents (excluding rookies) are looking to earn paychecks in the AFC. This article will concentrate on the AFC South.

Approach: Some rosters required us to estimate players who will possibly end up on a team’s taxi squad or could be cut. Because of that, we applied that thought to the other teams as well. So, the active roster numbers and salary cap may be a bit different come June 24th and will differ than what’s currently on MFL. Our goals were to:

• Estimate roster spots and cap space
• Assess team needs
• Identify potential taxi squad moves, player cuts, and/or trade options
• Analyze potential free agency options

AFC Capital for Free Agency

AFC South Team Breakdown

Tennessee Titans. 43 active players, 14.22m available for FA.

Finished 2016 with a 14-2 record (#1 in AFC South), 5,462 total points.  

 

• Offense – Jason has a stacked offense with Bell, Freeman and Murray being a three-headed monster. Not to mention Dez and Sanders to round it out. He is fairly shallow behind these five though. Adding another starting caliber player would be wise for Jason. His cap situation isn’t the greatest, but considering he has a fairly complete team, he can focus on adding solid floor players to backup his high powered starters. In week 5, Jason runs into a small issue with Byes as Freeman and Sanders are out that week. If Dak underperforms or runs into the dreaded Sophomore year curse, Jason could be rolling into the season being the weakness at QB.

• Defense – Solid unit to say the least. No worries about his DLine, elite group. Three solid LB’s. If Foster loses his job, Jason is a little thin behind his top-three guys. Shaq Thompson could finally have his breakout year OR it might be another year away as the immortal Thomas Davis is still a high end player. I see Jason adding a LB and at least one S, maybe two. Geathers is a top-10 Safety if healthy, but a neck injury leaves his future uncertain. Sean Davis could be a solid starter this year, but I think Jason would be wise to add a solid S in the auction.

• Special Teams – Could use a better HC and K.

• Potential TS / Cuts – None. Dan Carpenter.

• Notes –  Not surprising, the reigning IFL Champ is rolling into the auction with one of the most complete teams in the league. Jason has few concerns minus a little depth, which he has the cap to get in the auction. I think Jason comes away with 1-2 high level signings and some solid floor plays on offense for a little insurance.

 

• Potential FA Targets –
• • QB – Eli Manning, Blake Bortles
  • WR – Julian Edelman, Cameron Meredith
  • TE – Cameron Brate
  • LB – Lawrence Timmons, Vince Williams, Sean Spence, Edwin Jackson
  • S – Barry Church, Eric Berry, Eric Reid, Jahleel Addae, Antoine Bethea

Indianapolis Colts. 40 active players, 18.38m available for FA.

Finished 2016 with a 8-8 record (#2 in AFC South), 4,747 total points.

 

• Offense – Erik has a respectable offense, but it needs a lot of work to help him compete with Jason for the South. I honestly think Erik is better off focusing on his future instead of this year. He has a solid base to build around, but no cap space to add the necessary pieces to push him over the top. He has question marks like Martavis and Decker that he needs to rely on, it’s just not an ideal situation.

• Defense – A lot of work to do here. Average DT’s, but Buckner has been playing DT in mini-camp. High possibility for him to have a position switch. This might be the ideal situation, considering he has three startable DE’s at the moment. There is also concern Buckner loses snaps, as SF (NFL) DC Robert Saleh said this week, “he wants none of his DLine going over 600 snaps this year.” Buckner went over 1000 snaps last year. Bowman is an elite LB still, but Beasley, Jones and Clowney are average options at best. Cyprien should have another S1 season, but Chung is an average 2nd starter. Bottom line, he needs another player at S.

• Special Teams – No HC, No P, 1 K and Bye week issue for his Team Off.

• Potential TS / Cuts – Alex Collins, DJ Foster, Aaron Burbridge, Cody Core, Jakeem Grant, Jordan Payton, Shilique Calhoun, Joshua Perry. DeAndre Levy.

• Notes – Erik needs a ton of work to make his team viable for this season. He needs another starting option or two on offense, as well as at least one more reliable LB just to give him a chance. That’s not even addressing his depth issues. He could focus on winning this year, but it may be best for him to put the effort into focusing on his future. Trading away some vets like Decker, Bowman, Tate and Cousins could net him some high quality capital heading into next year.

• Potential FA Targets –
  • RB – Duke Johnson, Jerrick Mckinnon, Brandon Oliver, Rex Burkhead
  • WR – John Brown, Devante Parker, Devin Funchess, Paul Richardson
  • LB – Anthony Barr, Vince Williams, AJ Klein, Corey James
  • S – Eric Reid, Maurice Alexander

Houston Texans. 41 active players, 16.62m available for FA.

Finished 2016 with a 8-8 record (#3 in AFC South), 4,383  total points.

 

• Offense – This is a sneaky good offense! Evans, Cooper, ARob, Mccoy, Gillislee/Bennett have the opportunity to be a top offense in the league. Big Ben is a volatile QB, but still a reliable one. Peru needs very little work on this side of the ball, but I could see him adding a couple more cheap upside plays.
• Defense – Not as good as his offense, but a lot of upside. I love Liuget to have a comeback season at DT in the 4-3 defense. Very solid DE’s! Great set of young LB’s with Davis, McMillan and Reddick. But no idea if Reddick and McMillan will be startable this year. McMillan has been starting at MLB, but he has been coming off the field in Nickel. Reddick is taking advantage of Bucannon being out, and I think he has a chance to take that job in the future. However, I don’t think he will be viable this year. I would think Peru needs to add three starting caliber LB’s, which will be tough with only a handful of options and a ton of teams vying for their services. He could also use two Safety’s, as I would not be comfortable with Parker, Jones or Pryor as my starter at this time.

 

• Potential TS / Cuts – Jordan Evans, Cyrus Jones. None.

• Notes – Peru has a dark horse team. If he can come away with some solid LB’s, he could be a playoff team this year. I am not sure he can compete with Jason for the division though, but his team will be a monster sooner or later. If it happens sooner, watch outI

• Potential FA Targets –
  • QB – Blake Bortles, Eli Manning
  • RB – Dion Lewis, Rex Burkhead, Danny Woodhead
  • WR – Tyler Lockett, John Brown
  • LB – Derrick Johnson, Lawrence Timmons, Vince Williams, Gerald Hodges, Dannell Ellerbe
  • S – Jahleel Addae, Shawn Williams

 

Jacksonville Jaguars. 49 active players, 19.16m available for FA.

Finished 2016 with a 7-9  record (#4 in AFC South), 4,587 total points.

 

• Offense – Nate has a ton of players on offense, but I am not sure he has a starting lineup. **womp womp** I think we’re looking at Tevin Coleman, Christian McCaffrey, C.J Prosise, Kelvin Benjamin and Brandin Cooks. I would not be surprised if Run-CMC leads his offense this year. Nate is lacking sure fire, top-end talent. If Benji has a comeback year and Cooks somehow funnels all of Brady’s targets, it looks a little better. But relying on 2 COP RB’s to start is not ideal.

• Defense – The Beard does have some very solid players on Defense. Dareus is a sneaky bet to be a top3-three DT after returning to a 4-3 defense. Heyward and Campbell are solid DE’s. (There is some worry Campbell moves to DT, which would be a huge blow to Nate). Davis, Mosley, Wright and Ryan is a solid LB corps, but he could use one more solid player. The Jags need a solid Safety to pair with Dix.

• Special Teams – Needs backup K and Team Off.

• Potential TS / Cuts – Trevone Boykin, Corey Clement, Keith Marshall, Leonte Carroo, Malachi Dupre, Roger Lewis, Jaleel Johnson, Jayron Kearse. Ladarius Green, Shamarko Thomas.

• Notes – Nate has a solid defense, but his offense is lacking and he does not have the cap space to land a stud. I think Nate has a tough decision ahead about his future and what direction he will go. If he can land some cheap contributors on offense he could be in the running for the playoffs, but it may be smart to start planning for the future.

• Potential FA Targets –
  • RB – Dion Lewis, Giovanni Bernard
  • WR – Cole Beasley, Adam Thielen, Robert Woods
  • LB – Karlos Dansby, Vince Williams, Sean Spence, Edwin Jackson
  • S –  Shawn Williams, Jahleel Addae, Mike Adams, DJ Swearinger

 

Less than a week away, and the race to catch the Titans begins in the AFC. Two, only two, teams posted over 5K points last season. Tennessee was one of those teams. We’ll see if Peru, Erik, and Nathan can accumulate enough to threaten the Titans top spot in the South. If not, maybe targeting a wildcard spot might be the best goal. It will be fun to see if Houston can live up to the Dark Horse image and become a challenger, what acquisitions the Colts make to improve on their 8-8 record, and how the Jaguars improve on the offensive side of the ball.