2016 AFC West Projections
By: Luke Monster
IFL!!! The most boring time of the year is upon us for the NFL and that means one thing… Predictions will be coming in hot and heavy! I hope you enjoy as I breakdown all 32 teams’ prospects this summer. A couple of things to keep in mind. My projections last year were high. Not extraordinarily high, but the vast majority of the teams finished below what I projected. I am trying to fix that this season with a little tinkering to my projections, but think of this exercise more so to a comparison of all teams.
Denver Broncos – Lewis
Coach: Bruce Arians 8 PPG
QB: Eli Manning/Matthew Stafford 29 PPG
This is streamer city, but I do envision Manning starting for Lewis most weeks. Manning plays six games in the defense-abandoned NFC East. Plus he has a new weapon Sterling Shepard and someone named Odell. Stafford is a slightly more depressing case, as he lost a hall-of-fame caliber receiver and was replaced by Marvin Jones. A breakout is needed from Eric Ebron to lessen the blow, but there are weeks where I think Stafford will be the better play. It’s a smart strategy from the rookie owner, as he has a little under $9 million allocated to the two quarterbacks.
RB/WR/TE: Julio Jones 26 PPG, DeAndre Hopkins 24 PPG, David Johnson 23 PPG, Thomas Rawls 18 PPG, Jason Witten 15 PPG (6th man: Reshad Jennings 15 PPG)
Julio could be even better than he was in 2015. No one will take targets away from Jones and he will eat all he can. The physical freak has alarming speed for his 6’3 frame and as long as he can stay off the trainer’s table he will be a top 3 play most weeks in 2016.
DeAndre Hopkins brokeout last season and is now one of the most valuable assets in all of dynasty. The Osweiler signing doesn’t get me as giddy as most people, but it should provide consistency on who’s throwing him the ball. Until I see Osweiler take that next step, I don’t foresee Hopkins taking that next step either. I think 2015 was his ceiling in terms of production with a mediocre quarterback. Osweiler has been nothing but mediocre, but there is room to grow. Hopkins will certainly help that growth with another excellent 2016 campaign.
David Johnson’s prospects scare me a little bit. Yes, he is the workhorse in what shapes up to be the best offense in the NFL, but he’s got two guy in CJ2k and Andre Ellington who are capable of taking away valuable snaps. I think that taps his upside a bit, as Arians has stated he plans on using Ellington and CJ2k this season. Still, I do believe in David Johnson as a top 5 running back of the present and future.
Out of everyone on Lewis’ roster, Thomas Rawls is the most volatile. We honestly have no idea what his role will be. At best, I think he is the 2-down runner with goalline touches. At worst, he is the 2nd or 3rd string running back. Seattle has no capital invested into Rawls, so it will be easy to move him down the depth chart if he isn’t healthy or ineffective in training camp. This is by-far the biggest player to watch for Lewis before the regular season begins.
Jason Witten, while he’s old and he’s not uber productive, he’s a solid back-end starter. He will get the job done most weeks and with Romo returning to full health, I can see his numbers stay in the top 10 tight ends for 2016. I think Witten may hit that old man wall soon, but until I see it happen I’m not projecting it.
PK: Robbie Gould 9 PPG
PN: Johnny Hekker 12 PPG
DT: Ndamukong Suh 14 PPG
Suh is about as consistent of an option as you can own at the DT position, although his ceiling is capped by his lack of sacks the last few years. He’s only eclipsed 10 sacks once and that was his rookie year. Going into 2016, Suh could post those numbers again, like he could ever year, but him staying right around the top 5 DTs sounds right. He’s sat right around there for the last 3 years.
DE: Cameron Jordan 14 PPG, Connor Barwin 13 PPG
Cameron Jordan is your typical DE that you’re happy to start on a weekly basis because he’s better than the vast majority of guys people start, but he’s rarely ever going to post you gems. Jordan only had 3 weeks over 20 points and one week where he went berserk for 47. Jordan has posted similar numbers since 2012 and if there is a guy I project to hit on my projection it’s Jordan. Set it and forget it.
Connor Barwin is making the switch from OLB to DE, which is fantastic news for fantasy owners. In what seems like a yearly occurrence were teams are switching from 4-3 to 3-4, 2016 was a year where we only saw one team switch from a 3-4 to a 4-3. A question I have for Barwin is will his production be affected when his hand is on the ground vs. standing up. I think that is a possibility, but a sharp regression shouldn’t be expected.
LB: Reggie Ragland 16 PPG, Clay Matthews 12 PPG, Ryan Kerrigan 11 PPG
Reggie Ragland is going to be a stud, especially at stopping the run. There is questions about whether he will play on 3rd downs, but Rex Ryan said they view him as such. Ragland should have plenty of opportunity to eat and he becomes Lewis’ best linebacker immediately.
Clay Matthews’ game is not suitable for fantasy. Most of his work is rushing the passer and he doesn’t accumulate enough tackles to warrant starting on most teams. That’s certainly not the case with Lewis, but Matthews should have a few weeks where Lewis is happy he starts. He’s the typical boom or bust OLB.
Please see Clay Matthews’ blurb, shave off a PPG and you have Ryan Kerrigan.
CB: Marcus Peters 13 PPG, Logan Ryan 12 PPG
Marcus Peters is the most overrated asset in the IFL heading into 2016. A couple of things are going against him. The biggest one is there will be an inexperienced and less talented player playing opposite Peters this season so he will be thrown to less. He also scored two touchdowns last year. While I think Peters will still be a CB1, to think he will once again be the #1 corner is asking too much.
Logan Ryan had a solid year and turned him into a corner New England could rely on the outside. His role is safe for 2016 and I expect similar number to come Ryan’s way, as New England’s secondary once again looks solid.
S: Malcom Jenkins 16 PPG, Barry Church 14 PPG, Calvin Pryor 14 PPG
You’ve probably heard this before, but Malcom Jenkins took his game to the next level in Philadelphia. Very few people including myself would have bet on Jenkins to end up the 4th best safety in 2015. But it happened and while his numbers could go down a tad with Philly switching to a 4-3, Jenkins should once again be a valuable asset for Lewis.
Barry Church has been overvalued since his absurd Reshard Joneslike season in 2012. Still, he’s a great safety play and will once again be an anchor to a below average Dallas defense who just lost Rolando McClain for the 1st ten games. He came on toward the tail end of the 2015 season, and a top 3 season could be in the cards for Church once again.
Calvin Pryor has largely disappointed in his first two years in the league. He was miscast his rookie season playing free safety and last year struggled with injuries and was getting reacclimated to his normal box safety role. This is a make or break season for Pryor in terms of fantasy relevancy, and I think this is the year he vaults up into the S1 ranks. The talent is there.
Off: Jacksonville Jaguars 11 PPG
Total PPG: 316
Prediction: 6-10
Final Thoughts: Lewis has a great core to build around in Hopkins, Jones and David Johnson. His biggest x-factor and what I think will end up resulting in Lewis being competitive is what happens with Thomas Rawls. If he is the starter, Lewis’ win total goes up a couple games. If he doesn’t start, I think this season has potential to get really ugly. The holes at linebacker are too glaring and needs to be addressed. Lewis, trade Reggie Nelson, Calvin Pryor, Barry Church, or Malcom Jenkins and get yourself a solid #2 linebacker.