I know what you may be thinking “Why would I read a Hitman article when I could hear him say it in that smooth voice?”
I agree with you completely but some things are better put into article format rather than the best podcast to ever hit the IFL airwaves.
The EG crew put together one of the best statistical drops since Bill James when they came out with the 1st year draft hit rates of the IFL franchises.
This though is not the end of the data. While most of you have been sitting on your asses and just sending suggestions to Nate, the Hitman has been busy at work punching in numbers and coming up with a statistic of his own.
Let’s get into it.
Dynasty Guru and his Hit Rates
The idea for adjusted scoring came while the Hitman was reading an old article that he came across from The Dynasty Guru about how often rookie draft picks hit (article can be found here).
If you are too lazy to read the article here is the long and short of it:
- Based off how often rookies become fantasy starters
- Data used from 2012-2017
- Hit Rate = at least 1 season at a fantasy starter rank
- This means top 24 RB, top 30 WR, top 12 QB
Dynasty Guru found that the hit rate per round were as follows:
- 1st Round – 45.8%
- 2nd Round – 30.6%
- 3rd Round or After – 9.3%
This was obviously done for leagues that include no IDP players.
The Hitman and his Adjusted Scoring Metric
So looking to expand on this profound work, the Hitman took the guru’s data and expanded it to include IDP players. Since we have a mixed league it is natural to think that a doubling of the round should still rain true.
- 1st & 2nd Round – 45.8%
- 3rd & 4th Round – 30.6%
- 5th Round or After – 9.3%
Taking these hit rates a metric begins to form.
To adjust for actual skill of drafting we must account for how hard it is to find a player of value in each tier of the draft (Day 1, Day 2, Day 3). To do this the Adjusted Scoring metric was created.
Adjusted Scoring is done as follows:
Player points * (1-Round hit rate) = Adjusted Scoring
Example:
Based on 3 year Average Points:
Christian McCaffrey (AFC Pick 1.04)
437.73 pts * (1-.458) = 237.25
Blake Martinez (AFC Pick 5.05)
245.25 pts * (1-.093) = 233.63
Obviously we know that McCaffrey is worth more to a team than Martinez, but we are talking about draft skill here. These two actually rank as the 5th and 6th overall adjusted points respectively in the AFC.
This essentially takes into account that a player of superb caliber in McCaffrey at 1.04 takes the same skill to draft as Blake Martinez at 5.05. I’m sure we can find arguments against this but let’s move on to what all the metric accounts for…
Adjusted Scoring:
PROS of the metric:
- Total points of a player over their rookie contract
- The round the player was drafted in
- Consistent scoring
CONS of the metric:
- Hurts teams that have not been in the league for 3-4 years
- Doesn’t account for position depth
- Players with only 1-2 years of experience may have higher average points if they end up being a flash in the pan
Now that that is out of the way, let’s move on to the data
Historical Adjusted Scoring per Pick per Franchise
To see full size images, right click on it and click “Open in New Tab”
AFC
NFC
As you can see the adjusted scoring per pick represents that average amount of points over a 4 year period that a franchise can expect from each pick that they make.
Teams that miss in the first round get hurt worse than a team that misses in the 7th, and a team that consistently hits with mid-round picks is shown to be more fruitful than one that drafts a mediocre first round talent.
Overall Individual Player Adjusted Points
AFC TOP 25 Players Ever
(Based on Average Points in League Career)
| Round | Pick | OVR | FRANCHISE | PLAYER | Average Adjusted Points |
| 3 | 10 | 42 | Los Angeles Chargers – Decker | Watson, Deshaun HOU QB | 282.0416 |
| 3 | 14 | 46 | Houston Texans – Peru | Wentz, Carson PHI QB | 267.042525 |
| 3 | 9 | 41 | Miami Dolphins – Brad | Mahomes, Patrick KCC QB | 246.7285667 |
| 3 | 1 | 33 | Miami Dolphins – Brad | Mayfield, Baker CLE QB | 240.34955 |
| 1 | 4 | 4 | Jacksonville Jaguars – Nate | McCaffrey, Christian CAR RB | 237.2514667 |
| 5 | 5 | 69 | Los Angeles Chargers – Decker | Martinez, Blake GBP LB | 233.6318625 |
| 1 | 11 | 11 | Denver Broncos – David | Murray, Kyler ARI QB | 225.8785 |
| 1 | 1 | 1 | Miami Dolphins – Brad | Elliott, Ezekiel DAL RB | 224.388 |
| 3 | 2 | 34 | Buffalo Bills – Travis | Allen, Josh BUF QB | 220.3103 |
| 4 | 9 | 61 | Buffalo Bills – Travis | Jones, Daniel NYG QB | 218.3324 |
| 5 | 6 | 77 | Cleveland Browns – Kyle | Bates, Jessie CIN S | 213.031625 |
| 2 | 15 | 31 | Baltimore Ravens – Matt | Jackson, Lamar BAL QB | 210.25535 |
| 4 | 9 | 61 | Jacksonville Jaguars – Nate | Trubisky, Mitchell CHI QB | 208.3388 |
| 1 | 1 | 1 | New England Patriots – Mark | Barkley, Saquon NYG RB | 207.4776 |
| 5 | 18 | 89 | Cincinnati Bengals – Danny | Crosby, Maxx OAK DE | 198.633 |
| 1 | 7 | 7 | New England Patriots – Mark | Kamara, Alvin NOS RB | 195.1471 |
| 1 | 15 | 15 | Pittsburgh Steelers – Spencer | Leonard, Darius IND LB | 190.3504 |
| 3 | 3 | 35 | Los Angeles Chargers – Decker | Darnold, Sam NYJ QB | 188.54245 |
| 7 | 13 | 119 | Miami Dolphins – Brad | King, Desmond LAC CB | 188.0362167 |
| 7 | 6 | 112 | Buffalo Bills – Travis | Holcomb, Cole WAS LB | 187.4769 |
| 1 | 3 | 3 | Jacksonville Jaguars – Nate | Chubb, Nick CLE RB | 183.1147 |
| 6 | 2 | 92 | New York Jets – Cory | Slayton, Darius NYG WR | 178.18015 |
| 1 | 6 | 6 | Los Angeles Chargers – Decker | Thomas, Michael NOS WR | 177.11205 |
| 2 | 6 | 22 | New York Jets – Aaron | Goff, Jared RAM QB | 176.996875 |
| 6 | 5 | 85 | Los Angeles Chargers – Decker | Byard, Kevin TEN S | 176.3208 |
NFC TOP 25 Players Ever
(Based on Average Points in League Career)
| Round | Pick | OVR | FRANCHISE | PLAYER | Average Adjusted Points |
| 6 | 14 | 94 | New York Giants – Djordan | Prescott, Dak DAL QB | 385.089525 |
| 3 | 3 | 35 | Detroit Lions – Mac | Wentz, Carson PHI QB | 267.042525 |
| 3 | 19 | 51 | Los Angeles Rams – Andy | Mahomes, Patrick KCC QB | 246.7285667 |
| 1 | 3 | 3 | Los Angeles Rams – Andy | McCaffrey, Christian CAR RB | 237.2514667 |
| 5 | 7 | 71 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Luke | Martinez, Blake GBP LB | 233.6318625 |
| 1 | 7 | 7 | San Francisco 49ers – Josh | Murray, Kyler ARI QB | 225.8785 |
| 1 | 1 | 1 | Dallas Cowboys – Brian O. | Elliott, Ezekiel DAL RB | 224.388 |
| 4 | 14 | 66 | Detroit Lions – Nate | Allen, Josh BUF QB | 220.3103 |
| 2 | 13 | 29 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Luke | Watson, Deshaun HOU QB | 220.2688 |
| 3 | 8 | 40 | Atlanta Falcons – Floyd | Jones, Daniel NYG QB | 218.3324 |
| 5 | 8 | 79 | Carolina Panthers – Nils | Bates, Jessie CIN S | 213.031625 |
| 7 | 1 | 116 | New Orleans Saints – Carlos | Cohen, Tarik CHI RB | 211.01355 |
| 2 | 13 | 29 | Seattle Seahawks – Will | Jackson, Lamar BAL QB | 210.25535 |
| 4 | 9 | 61 | New Orleans Saints – Carlos | Trubisky, Mitchell CHI QB | 208.3388 |
| 1 | 1 | 1 | Atlanta Falcons – Floyd | Barkley, Saquon NYG RB | 207.4776 |
| 6 | 3 | 83 | Chicago Bears – Nic | Schobert, Joe CLE LB | 199.5966875 |
| 5 | 11 | 82 | New Orleans Saints – Carlos | Crosby, Maxx OAK DE | 198.633 |
| 1 | 1 | 10 | Arizona Cardinals – Jai | Kamara, Alvin NOS RB | 195.1471 |
| 1 | 11 | 11 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Luke | Leonard, Darius IND LB | 190.3504 |
| 5 | 3 | 74 | San Francisco 49ers – Josh | Hubbard, Sam CIN DE | 189.449625 |
| 3 | 3 | 35 | Seattle Seahawks – Will | Darnold, Sam NYJ QB | 188.54245 |
| 7 | 13 | 119 | Detroit Lions – Mac | King, Desmond LAC CB | 188.0362167 |
| 1 | 15 | 15 | San Francisco 49ers – Josh | Mayfield, Baker CLE QB | 187.70815 |
| 7 | 11 | 117 | New Orleans Saints – Carlos | Holcomb, Cole WAS LB | 187.4769 |
| 1 | 9 | 9 | Detroit Lions – Nate | Chubb, Nick CLE RB | 183.1147 |
As you can see QBs tend to have high value when they hit later (3rd round on). Let’s take out QBs to get another look.
AFC TOP 25 Players Ever excluding QBs
(Based on Average Points in League Career)
| Round | Pick | OVR | FRANCHISE | PLAYER | Average Adjusted Points |
| 1 | 4 | 4 | Jacksonville Jaguars – Nate | McCaffrey, Christian CAR RB | 237.2514667 |
| 5 | 5 | 69 | Los Angeles Chargers – Decker | Martinez, Blake GBP LB | 233.6318625 |
| 1 | 1 | 1 | Miami Dolphins – Brad | Elliott, Ezekiel DAL RB | 224.388 |
| 5 | 6 | 77 | Cleveland Browns – Kyle | Bates, Jessie CIN S | 213.031625 |
| 1 | 1 | 1 | New England Patriots – Mark | Barkley, Saquon NYG RB | 207.4776 |
| 5 | 18 | 89 | Cincinnati Bengals – Danny | Crosby, Maxx OAK DE | 198.633 |
| 1 | 7 | 7 | New England Patriots – Mark | Kamara, Alvin NOS RB | 195.1471 |
| 1 | 15 | 15 | Pittsburgh Steelers – Spencer | Leonard, Darius IND LB | 190.3504 |
| 7 | 13 | 119 | Miami Dolphins – Brad | King, Desmond LAC CB | 188.0362167 |
| 7 | 6 | 112 | Buffalo Bills – Travis | Holcomb, Cole WAS LB | 187.4769 |
| 1 | 3 | 3 | Jacksonville Jaguars – Nate | Chubb, Nick CLE RB | 183.1147 |
| 6 | 2 | 92 | New York Jets – Cory | Slayton, Darius NYG WR | 178.18015 |
| 1 | 6 | 6 | Los Angeles Chargers – Decker | Thomas, Michael NOS WR | 177.11205 |
| 6 | 5 | 85 | Los Angeles Chargers – Decker | Byard, Kevin TEN S | 176.3208 |
| 5 | 3 | 67 | Cleveland Browns – Kyle | Bell, Vonn NOS S | 175.2210625 |
| 6 | 10 | 90 | Baltimore Ravens – Matt | Campbell, De’Vondre ATL LB | 174.55215 |
| 6 | 15 | 105 | Los Angeles Chargers – Decker | Brown, Jayon TEN LB | 174.46145 |
| 3 | 5 | 37 | Houston Texans – Peru | Jones, Aaron GBP RB | 173.4768667 |
| 1 | 1 | 1 | Cincinnati Bengals – Danny | Jacobs, Josh OAK RB | 169.5918 |
| 5 | 15 | 86 | Cincinnati Bengals – Danny | White, Tre’Davious BUF CB | 169.4276 |
| 7 | 8 | 114 | Oakland Raiders – Mark Prendo | Johnson, John LAR S | 164.84725 |
| 7 | 7 | 113 | Oakland Raiders – Mark Prendo | Jackson, Eddie CHI S | 163.5321 |
| 4 | 14 | 66 | Los Angeles Chargers – Decker | Watt, T.J. PIT LB | 163.1825333 |
| 1 | 3 | 3 | Indianapolis Colts – Erik | Sanders, Miles PHI RB | 162.7626 |
| 4 | 19 | 71 | Kansas City Chiefs – Curt | Cohen, Tarik CHI RB | 161.4591 |
NFC TOP 25 Players Ever excluding QBs
(Based on Average Points in League Career)
| Round | Pick | OVR | FRANCHISE | PLAYER | Average Adjusted Points |
| 1 | 3 | 3 | Los Angeles Rams – Andy | McCaffrey, Christian CAR RB | 237.2514667 |
| 5 | 7 | 71 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Luke | Martinez, Blake GBP LB | 233.6318625 |
| 1 | 1 | 1 | Dallas Cowboys – Brian O. | Elliott, Ezekiel DAL RB | 224.388 |
| 5 | 8 | 79 | Carolina Panthers – Nils | Bates, Jessie CIN S | 213.031625 |
| 7 | 1 | 116 | New Orleans Saints – Carlos | Cohen, Tarik CHI RB | 211.01355 |
| 1 | 1 | 1 | Atlanta Falcons – Floyd | Barkley, Saquon NYG RB | 207.4776 |
| 6 | 3 | 83 | Chicago Bears – Nic | Schobert, Joe CLE LB | 199.5966875 |
| 5 | 11 | 82 | New Orleans Saints – Carlos | Crosby, Maxx OAK DE | 198.633 |
| 1 | 1 | 10 | Arizona Cardinals – Jai | Kamara, Alvin NOS RB | 195.1471 |
| 1 | 11 | 11 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Luke | Leonard, Darius IND LB | 190.3504 |
| 5 | 3 | 74 | San Francisco 49ers – Josh | Hubbard, Sam CIN DE | 189.449625 |
| 7 | 13 | 119 | Detroit Lions – Mac | King, Desmond LAC CB | 188.0362167 |
| 7 | 11 | 117 | New Orleans Saints – Carlos | Holcomb, Cole WAS LB | 187.4769 |
| 1 | 9 | 9 | Detroit Lions – Nate | Chubb, Nick CLE RB | 183.1147 |
| 7 | 12 | 118 | Arizona Cardinals – Jai | Slayton, Darius NYG WR | 178.18015 |
| 1 | 7 | 7 | Green Bay Packers – Barry | Thomas, Michael NOS WR | 177.11205 |
| 5 | 12 | 76 | Seattle Seahawks – Will | Bell, Vonn NOS S | 175.2210625 |
| 6 | 6 | 86 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Luke | Campbell, De’Vondre ATL LB | 174.55215 |
| 7 | 7 | 113 | Washington Redskins – Brian G. | Brown, Jayon TEN LB | 174.46145 |
| 3 | 1 | 42 | Arizona Cardinals – Jai | Jones, Aaron GBP RB | 173.4768667 |
| 1 | 1 | 1 | Washington Redskins – Dan | Jacobs, Josh OAK RB | 169.5918 |
| 6 | 8 | 98 | Atlanta Falcons – Floyd | White, Tre’Davious BUF CB | 169.4276 |
| 5 | 2 | 73 | Chicago Bears – Nic | Jackson, Adoree TEN CB | 167.38685 |
| 6 | 15 | 105 | Detroit Lions – Mac | Jackson, Eddie CHI S | 163.5321 |
| 4 | 12 | 64 | Green Bay Packers – Barry | Watt, T.J. PIT LB | 163.1825333 |
Adjusted Scoring by Position
AFC QB Top 10
| Round | Pick | OVR | FRANCHISE | PLAYER | Average Adjusted Points |
| 3 | 10 | 42 | Los Angeles Chargers – Decker | Watson, Deshaun HOU QB | 282.0416 |
| 3 | 14 | 46 | Houston Texans – Peru | Wentz, Carson PHI QB | 267.042525 |
| 3 | 9 | 41 | Miami Dolphins – Brad | Mahomes, Patrick KCC QB | 246.7285667 |
| 3 | 1 | 33 | Miami Dolphins – Brad | Mayfield, Baker CLE QB | 240.34955 |
| 1 | 11 | 11 | Denver Broncos – David | Murray, Kyler ARI QB | 225.8785 |
| 3 | 2 | 34 | Buffalo Bills – Travis | Allen, Josh BUF QB | 220.3103 |
| 4 | 9 | 61 | Buffalo Bills – Travis | Jones, Daniel NYG QB | 218.3324 |
| 2 | 15 | 31 | Baltimore Ravens – Matt | Jackson, Lamar BAL QB | 210.25535 |
| 4 | 9 | 61 | Jacksonville Jaguars – Nate | Trubisky, Mitchell CHI QB | 208.3388 |
| 3 | 3 | 35 | Los Angeles Chargers – Decker | Darnold, Sam NYJ QB | 188.54245 |
NFC QB Top 10
| Round | Pick | OVR | FRANCHISE | PLAYER | Average Adjusted Points |
| 6 | 14 | 94 | New York Giants – Djordan | Prescott, Dak DAL QB | 385.089525 |
| 3 | 3 | 35 | Detroit Lions – Mac | Wentz, Carson PHI QB | 267.042525 |
| 3 | 19 | 51 | Los Angeles Rams – Andy | Mahomes, Patrick KCC QB | 246.7285667 |
| 1 | 7 | 7 | San Francisco 49ers – Josh | Murray, Kyler ARI QB | 225.8785 |
| 4 | 14 | 66 | Detroit Lions – Nate | Allen, Josh BUF QB | 220.3103 |
| 2 | 13 | 29 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Luke | Watson, Deshaun HOU QB | 220.2688 |
| 3 | 8 | 40 | Atlanta Falcons – Floyd | Jones, Daniel NYG QB | 218.3324 |
| 2 | 13 | 29 | Seattle Seahawks – Will | Jackson, Lamar BAL QB | 210.25535 |
| 4 | 9 | 61 | New Orleans Saints – Carlos | Trubisky, Mitchell CHI QB | 208.3388 |
| 3 | 3 | 35 | Seattle Seahawks – Will | Darnold, Sam NYJ QB | 188.54245 |
AFC RB Top 10
| Round | Pick | OVR | FRANCHISE | PLAYER | Average Adjusted Points |
| 1 | 4 | 4 | Jacksonville Jaguars – Nate | McCaffrey, Christian CAR RB | 237.2514667 |
| 1 | 1 | 1 | Miami Dolphins – Brad | Elliott, Ezekiel DAL RB | 224.388 |
| 1 | 1 | 1 | New England Patriots – Mark | Barkley, Saquon NYG RB | 207.4776 |
| 1 | 7 | 7 | New England Patriots – Mark | Kamara, Alvin NOS RB | 195.1471 |
| 1 | 3 | 3 | Jacksonville Jaguars – Nate | Chubb, Nick CLE RB | 183.1147 |
| 3 | 5 | 37 | Houston Texans – Peru | Jones, Aaron GBP RB | 173.4768667 |
| 1 | 1 | 1 | Cincinnati Bengals – Danny | Jacobs, Josh OAK RB | 169.5918 |
| 1 | 3 | 3 | Indianapolis Colts – Erik | Sanders, Miles PHI RB | 162.7626 |
| 4 | 19 | 71 | Kansas City Chiefs – Curt | Cohen, Tarik CHI RB | 161.4591 |
| 1 | 1 | 1 | New England Patriots – Mark | Fournette, Leonard JAC RB | 157.5774667 |
NFC RB Top 10
| Round | Pick | OVR | FRANCHISE | PLAYER | Average Adjusted Points |
| 1 | 3 | 3 | Los Angeles Rams – Andy | McCaffrey, Christian CAR RB | 237.2514667 |
| 1 | 1 | 1 | Dallas Cowboys – Brian O. | Elliott, Ezekiel DAL RB | 224.388 |
| 7 | 1 | 116 | New Orleans Saints – Carlos | Cohen, Tarik CHI RB | 211.01355 |
| 1 | 1 | 1 | Atlanta Falcons – Floyd | Barkley, Saquon NYG RB | 207.4776 |
| 1 | 1 | 10 | Arizona Cardinals – Jai | Kamara, Alvin NOS RB | 195.1471 |
| 1 | 9 | 9 | Detroit Lions – Nate | Chubb, Nick CLE RB | 183.1147 |
| 3 | 1 | 42 | Arizona Cardinals – Jai | Jones, Aaron GBP RB | 173.4768667 |
| 1 | 1 | 1 | Washington Redskins – Dan | Jacobs, Josh OAK RB | 169.5918 |
| 1 | 3 | 3 | Dallas Cowboys – Brian O. | Sanders, Miles PHI RB | 162.7626 |
| 1 | 1 | 1 | Chicago Bears – Nic | Fournette, Leonard JAC RB | 157.5774667 |
AFC WR Top 10
| Round | Pick | OVR | FRANCHISE | PLAYER | Average Adjusted Points |
| 6 | 2 | 92 | New York Jets – Cory | Slayton, Darius NYG WR | 178.18015 |
| 1 | 6 | 6 | Los Angeles Chargers – Decker | Thomas, Michael NOS WR | 177.11205 |
| 3 | 10 | 42 | Buffalo Bills – Travis | McLaurin, Terry WAS WR | 150.1816 |
| 5 | 6 | 77 | Pittsburgh Steelers – Spencer | Westbrook, Dede JAC WR | 148.0224 |
| 3 | 1 | 33 | Miami Dolphins – Brad | Godwin, Chris TBB WR | 142.7789333 |
| 4 | 1 | 53 | Jacksonville Jaguars – Nate | Golladay, Kenny DET WR | 141.9924 |
| 3 | 17 | 49 | Las Vegas Raiders – Craig | Johnson, Diontae PIT WR | 131.513 |
| 1 | 11 | 11 | Pittsburgh Steelers – Spencer | Moore, D.J. CAR WR | 128.0746 |
| 1 | 13 | 13 | New York Jets – Cory | Ridley, Calvin ATL WR | 119.3213 |
| 2 | 4 | 20 | Jacksonville Jaguars – Nate | Smith-Schuster, JuJu PIT WR | 118.7883333 |
NFC WR Top 10
| Round | Pick | OVR | FRANCHISE | PLAYER | Average Adjusted Points |
| 7 | 12 | 118 | Arizona Cardinals – Jai | Slayton, Darius NYG WR | 178.18015 |
| 1 | 7 | 7 | Green Bay Packers – Barry | Thomas, Michael NOS WR | 177.11205 |
| 3 | 1 | 33 | Chicago Bears – Nic | Smith-Schuster, JuJu PIT WR | 152.1016667 |
| 3 | 6 | 38 | Detroit Lions – Nate | McLaurin, Terry WAS WR | 150.1816 |
| 5 | 7 | 78 | Los Angeles Rams – Andy | Westbrook, Dede JAC WR | 148.0224 |
| 3 | 5 | 37 | Los Angeles Rams – Andy | Kupp, Cooper LAR WR | 147.475 |
| 3 | 4 | 36 | Atlanta Falcons – Floyd | Godwin, Chris TBB WR | 142.7789333 |
| 3 | 17 | 49 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Luke | Golladay, Kenny DET WR | 141.9924 |
| 3 | 16 | 48 | Arizona Cardinals – Jai | Johnson, Diontae PIT WR | 131.513 |
| 1 | 12 | 12 | Carolina Panthers – Nils | Moore, D.J. CAR WR | 128.0746 |
AFC TE Top 10
| Round | Pick | OVR | FRANCHISE | PLAYER | Average Adjusted Points |
| 3 | 11 | 43 | New England Patriots – Mark | Andrews, Mark BAL TE | 149.557 |
| 3 | 4 | 36 | Pittsburgh Steelers – Spencer | Goedert, Dallas PHI TE | 113.87499 |
| 1 | 16 | 16 | Cleveland Browns – Kyle | Engram, Evan NYG TE | 101.6340333 |
| 2 | 15 | 31 | Oakland Raiders – Mark Prendo | Hooper, Austin ATL TE | 99.336405 |
| 6 | 14 | 104 | Houston Texans – Dean | Moreau, Foster OAK TE | 93.52984 |
| 5 | 3 | 74 | Miami Dolphins – Brad | Smith, Jonnu TEN TE | 92.38097333 |
| 1 | 16 | 16 | Houston Texans – Dean | Fant, Noah DEN TE | 88.63868 |
| 1 | 11 | 11 | Cleveland Browns – Kyle | Howard, O.J. TBB TE | 81.53125333 |
| 3 | 1 | 33 | Tennessee Titans – Jason | Smith Jr., Irv MIN TE | 80.851 |
| 5 | 16 | 87 | Indianapolis Colts – Erik | Akins, Jordan HOU TE | 80.754745 |
NFC TE Top 10
| Round | Pick | OVR | FRANCHISE | PLAYER | Average Adjusted Points |
| 3 | 14 | 46 | Carolina Panthers – Nils | Andrews, Mark BAL TE | 149.557 |
| 3 | 9 | 41 | Arizona Cardinals – Jai | Edmunds, Terrell PIT S | 123.37585 |
| 3 | 17 | 49 | Carolina Panthers – Nils | Goedert, Dallas PHI TE | 113.87499 |
| 1 | 16 | 16 | New Orleans Saints – Carlos | Engram, Evan NYG TE | 101.6340333 |
| 2 | 14 | 30 | Carolina Panthers – Nils | Hooper, Austin ATL TE | 99.336405 |
| 6 | 2 | 92 | Philadelphia Eagles – Tiffany | Moreau, Foster OAK TE | 93.52984 |
| 1 | 13 | 13 | Dallas Cowboys – Brian O. | Fant, Noah DEN TE | 88.63868 |
| 1 | 6 | 6 | Minnesota Vikings – Wade | Howard, O.J. TBB TE | 81.53125333 |
| 4 | 11 | 63 | Detroit Lions – Nate | Knox, Dawson BUF TE | 78.93556 |
| 7 | 1 | 107 | Dallas Cowboys – Brian O. | Herndon, Chris NYJ TE | 76.020205 |
AFC DE Top 10
| Round | Pick | OVR | FRANCHISE | PLAYER | Average Adjusted Points |
| 5 | 18 | 89 | Cincinnati Bengals – Danny | Crosby, Maxx OAK DE | 198.633 |
| 4 | 18 | 70 | Jacksonville Jaguars – Nate | Hubbard, Sam CIN DE | 144.95925 |
| 2 | 12 | 28 | Indianapolis Colts – Erik | Buckner, DeForest SFO DE | 129.3212 |
| 1 | 6 | 6 | Las Vegas Raiders – Craig | Bosa, Nick SFO DE | 116.53 |
| 2 | 7 | 23 | Indianapolis Colts – Erik | Bosa, Joey SDC DE | 115.8525 |
| 3 | 10 | 42 | New York Jets – Aaron | Clark, Kenny GBP DE | 115.56835 |
| 2 | 5 | 21 | Indianapolis Colts – Erik | Allen, Josh JAC DE | 110.8932 |
| 7 | 5 | 101 | Indianapolis Colts – Erik | Nassib, Carl CLE DE | 106.9353 |
| 3 | 14 | 46 | Miami Dolphins – Brad | Allen, Jonathan WAS DE | 105.0253333 |
| 1 | 12 | 12 | Kansas City Chiefs – Curt | Garrett, Myles CLE DE | 97.9936 |
NFC DE Top 10
| Round | Pick | OVR | FRANCHISE | PLAYER | Average Adjusted Points |
| 5 | 11 | 82 | New Orleans Saints – Carlos | Crosby, Maxx OAK DE | 198.633 |
| 5 | 3 | 74 | San Francisco 49ers – Josh | Hubbard, Sam CIN DE | 189.449625 |
| 7 | 9 | 105 | Atlanta Falcons – Floyd | Clark, Kenny GBP DE | 151.038175 |
| 1 | 13 | 13 | Philadelphia Eagles – Chris | Buckner, DeForest SFO DE | 129.3212 |
| 6 | 3 | 93 | Washington Redskins – Brian G. | Hill, B.J. NYG DE | 117.6379 |
| 1 | 5 | 5 | Seattle Seahawks – Will | Bosa, Nick SFO DE | 116.53 |
| 2 | 4 | 20 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Luke | Bosa, Joey SDC DE | 115.8525 |
| 2 | 2 | 18 | New York Giants – Djordan | Allen, Josh JAC DE | 110.8932 |
| 3 | 6 | 38 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Luke | Allen, Jonathan WAS DE | 105.0253333 |
| 1 | 15 | 15 | Green Bay Packers – Barry | Garrett, Myles CLE DE | 97.9936 |
AFC DT Top 10
| Round | Pick | OVR | FRANCHISE | PLAYER | Average Adjusted Points |
| 5 | 7 | 78 | New York Jets – Cory | Payne, Da’Ron WAS DT | 157.477875 |
| 7 | 16 | 122 | Oakland Raiders – Mark Prendo | Ogunjobi, Larry CLE DT | 133.2080667 |
| 5 | 8 | 79 | Denver Broncos – Lewis | Tomlinson, Dalvin NYG DT | 127.4637333 |
| 5 | 10 | 81 | Las Vegas Raiders – Craig | Lawrence, Dexter NYG DT | 120.0868 |
| 4 | 10 | 62 | Las Vegas Raiders – Craig | Wilkins, Christian MIA DT | 112.7056 |
| 5 | 9 | 73 | New York Jets – Aaron | Reed, Jarran SEA DT | 112.082525 |
| 3 | 5 | 37 | Buffalo Bills – Travis | Oliver, Ed BUF DT | 103.9612 |
| 4 | 14 | 62 | Los Angeles Chargers – Decker | Robinson, A’Shawn DET DT | 96.995175 |
| 7 | 6 | 102 | Buffalo Bills – Travis | Onyemata, David NOS DT | 86.2557 |
| 4 | 13 | 65 | Los Angeles Chargers – Decker | Hurst, Maurice OAK DT | 77.43305 |
NFC DT Top 10
| Round | Pick | OVR | FRANCHISE | PLAYER | Average Adjusted Points |
| 5 | 7 | 78 | San Francisco 49ers – Josh | Payne, Da’Ron WAS DT | 157.477875 |
| 5 | 13 | 84 | Los Angeles Rams – Andy | Tomlinson, Dalvin NYG DT | 127.4637333 |
| 5 | 13 | 77 | Dallas Cowboys – Brian O. | Robinson, A’Shawn DET DT | 126.7645875 |
| 7 | 11 | 107 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Luke | Hargrave, Javon PIT DT | 126.29975 |
| 5 | 18 | 89 | New York Giants – Djordan | Lawrence, Dexter NYG DT | 120.0868 |
| 7 | 8 | 104 | Atlanta Falcons – Floyd | Ioannidis, Matt WAS DT | 113.6471 |
| 3 | 15 | 47 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Luke | Wilkins, Christian MIA DT | 112.7056 |
| 5 | 6 | 70 | Minnesota Vikings – Wade | Reed, Jarran SEA DT | 112.082525 |
| 5 | 1 | 72 | Atlanta Falcons – Floyd | Hurst, Maurice OAK DT | 101.198525 |
| 6 | 8 | 98 | Washington Redskins – Brian G. | Nnadi, Derrick KCC DT | 97.1397 |
AFC LB Top 10
| Round | Pick | OVR | FRANCHISE | PLAYER | Average Adjusted Points |
| 5 | 5 | 69 | Los Angeles Chargers – Decker | Martinez, Blake GBP LB | 233.6318625 |
| 1 | 15 | 15 | Pittsburgh Steelers – Spencer | Leonard, Darius IND LB | 190.3504 |
| 7 | 6 | 112 | Buffalo Bills – Travis | Holcomb, Cole WAS LB | 187.4769 |
| 6 | 10 | 90 | Baltimore Ravens – Matt | Campbell, De’Vondre ATL LB | 174.55215 |
| 6 | 15 | 105 | Los Angeles Chargers – Decker | Brown, Jayon TEN LB | 174.46145 |
| 4 | 14 | 66 | Los Angeles Chargers – Decker | Watt, T.J. PIT LB | 163.1825333 |
| 7 | 13 | 119 | Indianapolis Colts – Erik | Greenlaw, Dre SFO LB | 154.32605 |
| 5 | 5 | 76 | Las Vegas Raiders – Mark Prendo | Landry, Harold TEN LB | 147.841 |
| 3 | 18 | 50 | Cleveland Browns – Kyle | Baker, Jerome MIA LB | 147.24945 |
| 2 | 8 | 24 | Cleveland Browns – Kyle | Warner, Fred SFO LB | 144.5785 |
NFC LB Top 10
| Round | Pick | OVR | FRANCHISE | PLAYER | Average Adjusted Points |
| 5 | 7 | 71 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Luke | Martinez, Blake GBP LB | 233.6318625 |
| 6 | 3 | 83 | Chicago Bears – Nic | Schobert, Joe CLE LB | 199.5966875 |
| 1 | 11 | 11 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Luke | Leonard, Darius IND LB | 190.3504 |
| 7 | 11 | 117 | New Orleans Saints – Carlos | Holcomb, Cole WAS LB | 187.4769 |
| 6 | 6 | 86 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Luke | Campbell, De’Vondre ATL LB | 174.55215 |
| 7 | 7 | 113 | Washington Redskins – Brian G. | Brown, Jayon TEN LB | 174.46145 |
| 4 | 12 | 64 | Green Bay Packers – Barry | Watt, T.J. PIT LB | 163.1825333 |
| 5 | 18 | 89 | Carolina Panthers – Nils | Landry, Harold TEN LB | 147.841 |
| 4 | 12 | 64 | Carolina Panthers – Nils | Baker, Jerome MIA LB | 147.24945 |
| 2 | 12 | 28 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Luke | Warner, Fred SFO LB | 144.5785 |
AFC CB Top 10
| Round | Pick | OVR | FRANCHISE | PLAYER | Average Adjusted Points |
| 7 | 13 | 119 | Miami Dolphins – Brad | King, Desmond LAC CB | 188.0362167 |
| 5 | 15 | 86 | Cincinnati Bengals – Danny | White, Tre’Davious BUF CB | 169.4276 |
| 7 | 3 | 99 | Houston Texans – Peru | Bradberry, James CAR CB | 158.77035 |
| 6 | 15 | 105 | Cincinnati Bengals – Danny | Alexander, Jaire GBP CB | 157.613925 |
| 5 | 9 | 80 | Baltimore Ravens – Matt | Lattimore, Marshon NOS CB | 157.4552 |
| 7 | 10 | 116 | Las Vegas Raiders – Craig | Murphy, Byron ARI CB | 155.5505 |
| 7 | 12 | 118 | Denver Broncos – David | Jackson, Donte CAR CB | 139.156475 |
| 5 | 13 | 84 | Cincinnati Bengals – Danny | Humphrey, Marlon BAL CB | 133.6011 |
| 7 | 1 | 97 | New England Patriots – Mark | Apple, Eli NYG CB | 131.0728375 |
| 7 | 15 | 121 | Cleveland Browns – Kyle | Murphy-Bunting, Sean TBB CB | 130.4266 |
NFC CB Top 10
| Round | Pick | OVR | FRANCHISE | PLAYER | Average Adjusted Points |
| 7 | 13 | 119 | Detroit Lions – Mac | King, Desmond LAC CB | 188.0362167 |
| 6 | 8 | 98 | Atlanta Falcons – Floyd | White, Tre’Davious BUF CB | 169.4276 |
| 5 | 2 | 73 | Chicago Bears – Nic | Jackson, Adoree TEN CB | 167.38685 |
| 7 | 12 | 118 | New York Giants – Djordan | Flowers, Tre SEA CB | 162.76115 |
| 7 | 8 | 114 | New Orleans Saints – Carlos | Alexander, Jaire GBP CB | 157.613925 |
| 5 | 17 | 88 | Philadelphia Eagles – Chris | Lattimore, Marshon NOS CB | 157.4552 |
| 6 | 16 | 106 | New Orleans Saints – Carlos | Humphrey, Marlon BAL CB | 133.6011 |
| 5 | 15 | 86 | Green Bay Packers – Barry | Ward, Denzel CLE CB | 132.46735 |
| 5 | 14 | 78 | Los Angeles Rams – Andy | Apple, Eli NYG CB | 131.0728375 |
| 6 | 5 | 95 | Minnesota Vikings – Wade | Ya-Sin, Rock IND CB | 126.98 |
AFC S Top 10
| Round | Pick | OVR | FRANCHISE | PLAYER | Average Adjusted Points |
| 5 | 6 | 77 | Cleveland Browns – Kyle | Bates, Jessie CIN S | 213.031625 |
| 6 | 5 | 85 | Los Angeles Chargers – Decker | Byard, Kevin TEN S | 176.3208 |
| 5 | 3 | 67 | Cleveland Browns – Kyle | Bell, Vonn NOS S | 175.2210625 |
| 7 | 8 | 114 | Oakland Raiders – Mark Prendo | Johnson, John LAR S | 164.84725 |
| 7 | 7 | 113 | Oakland Raiders – Mark Prendo | Jackson, Eddie CHI S | 163.5321 |
| 3 | 2 | 34 | Miami Dolphins – Brad | Baker, Budda ARI S | 155.2478 |
| 4 | 18 | 70 | Jacksonville Jaguars – Nate | Hubbard, Sam CIN DE | 144.95925 |
| 7 | 11 | 117 | Las Vegas Raiders – Mark Prendo | Whitehead, Jordan TBB S | 144.462425 |
| 4 | 8 | 60 | Houston Texans – Dean | Rapp, Taylor LAR S | 143.3457 |
| 6 | 3 | 93 | Los Angeles Chargers – Decker | Williams, Marcus NOS S | 141.3710667 |
NFC S Top 10
| Round | Pick | OVR | FRANCHISE | PLAYER | Average Adjusted Points |
| 5 | 8 | 79 | Carolina Panthers – Nils | Bates, Jessie CIN S | 213.031625 |
| 5 | 12 | 76 | Seattle Seahawks – Will | Bell, Vonn NOS S | 175.2210625 |
| 6 | 15 | 105 | Detroit Lions – Mac | Jackson, Eddie CHI S | 163.5321 |
| 3 | 18 | 50 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Luke | Baker, Budda ARI S | 155.2478 |
| 5 | 1 | 81 | New York Giants – Djordan | Evans, Justin TBB S | 145.61885 |
| 6 | 11 | 101 | Washington Redskins – Brian G. | Whitehead, Jordan TBB S | 144.462425 |
| 4 | 18 | 70 | Carolina Panthers – Nils | Rapp, Taylor LAR S | 143.3457 |
| 5 | 16 | 87 | Los Angeles Rams – Andy | Williams, Marcus NOS S | 141.3710667 |
| 3 | 6 | 38 | Washington Redskins – Brian G. | Fitzpatrick, Minkah MIA S | 138.67855 |
| 4 | 13 | 65 | Los Angeles Rams – Andy | Reid, Justin HOU S | 137.4814 |
The Wrap Up
Listen the Hitman could go on forever with these stats and compare players and values such as how these two values and draft skill levels are equal:
| Round | Pick | OVR | FRANCHISE | PLAYER | Average Adjusted Points |
| 1 | 1 | 1 | Chicago Bears – Nic | Fournette, Leonard JAC RB | 157.5774667 |
| 5 | 7 | 78 | San Francisco 49ers – Josh | Payne, Da’Ron WAS DT | 157.477875 |
But we must move on.
I thank you all for reading and feel free to drop me any suggestions that you feel may help the process.
Also here is the link to view the entire spreadsheet so that you all can dig into it as much as you would like:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1gPjSormSSIEerwN7P5vJxAtpC-atYxQ5/view?usp=sharing
Thanks,
The Hitman
