The long 2020 offseason has been permeated by a series of disinformation tactics put on by the propaganda machine of the IFL (aka Dalla Brian). We are here to stop these baseless attacks on the freedom that is the IFL. We embarked on a journey to find a hero to evaluate the league from the outside. So here are the unfiltered, unbiased, IFL offseason power rankings.
I know what you may be thinking “Why would I read a Hitman article when I could hear him say it in that smooth voice?”
I agree with you completely but some things are better put into article format rather than the best podcast to ever hit the IFL airwaves.
The EG crew put together one of the best statistical drops since Bill James when they came out with the 1st year draft hit rates of the IFL franchises.
This though is not the end of the data. While most of you have been sitting on your asses and just sending suggestions to Nate, the Hitman has been busy at work punching in numbers and coming up with a statistic of his own.
Let’s get into it.
Dynasty Guru and his Hit Rates
The idea for adjusted scoring came while the Hitman was reading an old article that he came across from The Dynasty Guru about how often rookie draft picks hit (article can be found here).
If you are too lazy to read the article here is the long and short of it:
Based off how often rookies become fantasy starters
Data used from 2012-2017
Hit Rate = at least 1 season at a fantasy starter rank
This means top 24 RB, top 30 WR, top 12 QB
Dynasty Guru found that the hit rate per round were as follows:
1st Round – 45.8%
2nd Round – 30.6%
3rd Round or After – 9.3%
This was obviously done for leagues that include no IDP players.
The Hitman and his Adjusted Scoring Metric
So looking to expand on this profound work, the Hitman took the guru’s data and expanded it to include IDP players. Since we have a mixed league it is natural to think that a doubling of the round should still rain true.
1st & 2nd Round – 45.8%
3rd & 4th Round – 30.6%
5th Round or After – 9.3%
Taking these hit rates a metric begins to form.
To adjust for actual skill of drafting we must account for how hard it is to find a player of value in each tier of the draft (Day 1, Day 2, Day 3). To do this the Adjusted Scoring metric was created.
Adjusted Scoring is done as follows:
Player points * (1-Round hit rate) = Adjusted Scoring
Obviously we know that McCaffrey is worth more to a team than Martinez, but we are talking about draft skill here. These two actually rank as the 5th and 6th overall adjusted points respectively in the AFC.
This essentially takes into account that a player of superb caliber in McCaffrey at 1.04 takes the same skill to draft as Blake Martinez at 5.05. I’m sure we can find arguments against this but let’s move on to what all the metric accounts for…
Adjusted Scoring:
PROS of the metric:
Total points of a player over their rookie contract
The round the player was drafted in
Consistent scoring
CONS of the metric:
Hurts teams that have not been in the league for 3-4 years
Doesn’t account for position depth
Players with only 1-2 years of experience may have higher average points if they end up being a flash in the pan
Now that that is out of the way, let’s move on to the data
Historical Adjusted Scoring per Pick per Franchise
To see full size images, right click on it and click “Open in New Tab”
AFC
Average adjusted scoring per pick of the AFC
NFC
Average adjusted scoring per pick of the NFC
As you can see the adjusted scoring per pick represents that average amount of points over a 4 year period that a franchise can expect from each pick that they make.
Teams that miss in the first round get hurt worse than a team that misses in the 7th, and a team that consistently hits with mid-round picks is shown to be more fruitful than one that drafts a mediocre first round talent.
Overall Individual Player Adjusted Points
AFC TOP 25 Players Ever (Based on Average Points in League Career)
Round
Pick
OVR
FRANCHISE
PLAYER
Average Adjusted Points
3
10
42
Los Angeles Chargers – Decker
Watson, Deshaun HOU QB
282.0416
3
14
46
Houston Texans – Peru
Wentz, Carson PHI QB
267.042525
3
9
41
Miami Dolphins – Brad
Mahomes, Patrick KCC QB
246.7285667
3
1
33
Miami Dolphins – Brad
Mayfield, Baker CLE QB
240.34955
1
4
4
Jacksonville Jaguars – Nate
McCaffrey, Christian CAR RB
237.2514667
5
5
69
Los Angeles Chargers – Decker
Martinez, Blake GBP LB
233.6318625
1
11
11
Denver Broncos – David
Murray, Kyler ARI QB
225.8785
1
1
1
Miami Dolphins – Brad
Elliott, Ezekiel DAL RB
224.388
3
2
34
Buffalo Bills – Travis
Allen, Josh BUF QB
220.3103
4
9
61
Buffalo Bills – Travis
Jones, Daniel NYG QB
218.3324
5
6
77
Cleveland Browns – Kyle
Bates, Jessie CIN S
213.031625
2
15
31
Baltimore Ravens – Matt
Jackson, Lamar BAL QB
210.25535
4
9
61
Jacksonville Jaguars – Nate
Trubisky, Mitchell CHI QB
208.3388
1
1
1
New England Patriots – Mark
Barkley, Saquon NYG RB
207.4776
5
18
89
Cincinnati Bengals – Danny
Crosby, Maxx OAK DE
198.633
1
7
7
New England Patriots – Mark
Kamara, Alvin NOS RB
195.1471
1
15
15
Pittsburgh Steelers – Spencer
Leonard, Darius IND LB
190.3504
3
3
35
Los Angeles Chargers – Decker
Darnold, Sam NYJ QB
188.54245
7
13
119
Miami Dolphins – Brad
King, Desmond LAC CB
188.0362167
7
6
112
Buffalo Bills – Travis
Holcomb, Cole WAS LB
187.4769
1
3
3
Jacksonville Jaguars – Nate
Chubb, Nick CLE RB
183.1147
6
2
92
New York Jets – Cory
Slayton, Darius NYG WR
178.18015
1
6
6
Los Angeles Chargers – Decker
Thomas, Michael NOS WR
177.11205
2
6
22
New York Jets – Aaron
Goff, Jared RAM QB
176.996875
6
5
85
Los Angeles Chargers – Decker
Byard, Kevin TEN S
176.3208
NFC TOP 25 Players Ever (Based on Average Points in League Career)
Round
Pick
OVR
FRANCHISE
PLAYER
Average Adjusted Points
6
14
94
New York Giants – Djordan
Prescott, Dak DAL QB
385.089525
3
3
35
Detroit Lions – Mac
Wentz, Carson PHI QB
267.042525
3
19
51
Los Angeles Rams – Andy
Mahomes, Patrick KCC QB
246.7285667
1
3
3
Los Angeles Rams – Andy
McCaffrey, Christian CAR RB
237.2514667
5
7
71
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Luke
Martinez, Blake GBP LB
233.6318625
1
7
7
San Francisco 49ers – Josh
Murray, Kyler ARI QB
225.8785
1
1
1
Dallas Cowboys – Brian O.
Elliott, Ezekiel DAL RB
224.388
4
14
66
Detroit Lions – Nate
Allen, Josh BUF QB
220.3103
2
13
29
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Luke
Watson, Deshaun HOU QB
220.2688
3
8
40
Atlanta Falcons – Floyd
Jones, Daniel NYG QB
218.3324
5
8
79
Carolina Panthers – Nils
Bates, Jessie CIN S
213.031625
7
1
116
New Orleans Saints – Carlos
Cohen, Tarik CHI RB
211.01355
2
13
29
Seattle Seahawks – Will
Jackson, Lamar BAL QB
210.25535
4
9
61
New Orleans Saints – Carlos
Trubisky, Mitchell CHI QB
208.3388
1
1
1
Atlanta Falcons – Floyd
Barkley, Saquon NYG RB
207.4776
6
3
83
Chicago Bears – Nic
Schobert, Joe CLE LB
199.5966875
5
11
82
New Orleans Saints – Carlos
Crosby, Maxx OAK DE
198.633
1
1
10
Arizona Cardinals – Jai
Kamara, Alvin NOS RB
195.1471
1
11
11
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Luke
Leonard, Darius IND LB
190.3504
5
3
74
San Francisco 49ers – Josh
Hubbard, Sam CIN DE
189.449625
3
3
35
Seattle Seahawks – Will
Darnold, Sam NYJ QB
188.54245
7
13
119
Detroit Lions – Mac
King, Desmond LAC CB
188.0362167
1
15
15
San Francisco 49ers – Josh
Mayfield, Baker CLE QB
187.70815
7
11
117
New Orleans Saints – Carlos
Holcomb, Cole WAS LB
187.4769
1
9
9
Detroit Lions – Nate
Chubb, Nick CLE RB
183.1147
As you can see QBs tend to have high value when they hit later (3rd round on). Let’s take out QBs to get another look.
AFC TOP 25 Players Ever excluding QBs (Based on Average Points in League Career)
Round
Pick
OVR
FRANCHISE
PLAYER
Average Adjusted Points
1
4
4
Jacksonville Jaguars – Nate
McCaffrey, Christian CAR RB
237.2514667
5
5
69
Los Angeles Chargers – Decker
Martinez, Blake GBP LB
233.6318625
1
1
1
Miami Dolphins – Brad
Elliott, Ezekiel DAL RB
224.388
5
6
77
Cleveland Browns – Kyle
Bates, Jessie CIN S
213.031625
1
1
1
New England Patriots – Mark
Barkley, Saquon NYG RB
207.4776
5
18
89
Cincinnati Bengals – Danny
Crosby, Maxx OAK DE
198.633
1
7
7
New England Patriots – Mark
Kamara, Alvin NOS RB
195.1471
1
15
15
Pittsburgh Steelers – Spencer
Leonard, Darius IND LB
190.3504
7
13
119
Miami Dolphins – Brad
King, Desmond LAC CB
188.0362167
7
6
112
Buffalo Bills – Travis
Holcomb, Cole WAS LB
187.4769
1
3
3
Jacksonville Jaguars – Nate
Chubb, Nick CLE RB
183.1147
6
2
92
New York Jets – Cory
Slayton, Darius NYG WR
178.18015
1
6
6
Los Angeles Chargers – Decker
Thomas, Michael NOS WR
177.11205
6
5
85
Los Angeles Chargers – Decker
Byard, Kevin TEN S
176.3208
5
3
67
Cleveland Browns – Kyle
Bell, Vonn NOS S
175.2210625
6
10
90
Baltimore Ravens – Matt
Campbell, De’Vondre ATL LB
174.55215
6
15
105
Los Angeles Chargers – Decker
Brown, Jayon TEN LB
174.46145
3
5
37
Houston Texans – Peru
Jones, Aaron GBP RB
173.4768667
1
1
1
Cincinnati Bengals – Danny
Jacobs, Josh OAK RB
169.5918
5
15
86
Cincinnati Bengals – Danny
White, Tre’Davious BUF CB
169.4276
7
8
114
Oakland Raiders – Mark Prendo
Johnson, John LAR S
164.84725
7
7
113
Oakland Raiders – Mark Prendo
Jackson, Eddie CHI S
163.5321
4
14
66
Los Angeles Chargers – Decker
Watt, T.J. PIT LB
163.1825333
1
3
3
Indianapolis Colts – Erik
Sanders, Miles PHI RB
162.7626
4
19
71
Kansas City Chiefs – Curt
Cohen, Tarik CHI RB
161.4591
NFC TOP 25 Players Ever excluding QBs (Based on Average Points in League Career)
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