2016 AFC East Projections
By: Luke Monster
IFL!!! The most boring time of the year is upon us for the NFL and that means one thing… Predictions will be coming in hot and heavy! I hope you enjoy as I breakdown all 32 teams’ prospects this summer. A couple of things to keep in mind. My projections last year were high. Not extraordinarily high, but the vast majority of the teams finished below what I projected. I am trying to fix that this season with a little tinkering to my projections, but think of this exercise more so to a comparison of all teams.
Buffalo Bills – Travis
Coach: Mike Zimmer 6 PPG
QB: Drew Brees 34 PPG
Brees has been a fixture at the top of fantasy teams for a decade and this year in New Orleans should be no different. New weapons surround him, as the Saints spent capitol to bring in Coby Fleener and Michael Thomas. Both should be upgrades from the players they are replacing. I think Brees is undervalued due to the Saints terrible defense and they should be in games where they will have to pass. The 2016 season may be one of Brees’ last, but the 37-year-old should keep chugging along just fine.
RB/WR/TE: LeSean McCoy 22 PPG, Steve Smith 19 PPG, Jarvis Landry 18 PPG, Jeremy Maclin 18 PPG, Jeremy Langford 17 PPG (6th man: Mike Wallace 14 PPG)
Travis’ offense doesn’t offer much star power or depth. While the starting 5 will win him games, it’s hard to get excited about a unit that features 5 players that could be looking at regression.
LeSean McCoy is once again the workhorse for the Bills, but there is some concerns with the talent behind him. Karlos Williams was one of the best backs in the NFL, averaging 5.6 YPC on 93 carries. It was reported at OTAs that he looks even better, and if McCoy underperforms Williams will take carries. McCoy is still one of the most elusive backs in the NFL, and in all reality he should see close to 1,000 yards and 8 or so TDs.
Is my projection for Steve Smith crazy for a 37-year-old who is coming off a torn Achilles? Smith will once again be target #1 in Baltimore and he’s been training hard to get back to 100% for training camp. It’s amazing that the 5’9 Smith was 11th in fantasy points for receivers before going on the IR. With another year with Flacco, I don’t think it’s unconceivable to actually see a progression, and Smith should be one of the best bargains for offensive production in IFL. He was signed for a bargain price of $1.6 million.
Jarvis Landry will not match his 1st two years of production based off he will no longer be the punt returner for the Dolphins. That alone will shave a couple PPG off his totals. There is also concerns with Adam Gase and how he will spread out targets. With DeVante Parker looking to take a step forward and Leonte Carroo talented enough to take targets as well, it could be Landry’s worst statistical season as a pro. Landry is extremely talented, and one of my favorite players in the NFL, but to expect 1,000 yards in 2016 might be expecting too much.
Jeremy Maclin is undervalued again in 2016. Travis once again signed Maclin to a nice contract at $7 million and he will be a fixture of his offense for the next few years. The #1 target in Kansas City stats didn’t fall off a cliff like people were expecting, as he scored 8 touchdowns and over 1,000 yards receiving. As we enter 2016, Maclin will be Alex Smith’s favorite target and a top 20 wide receiver for fantasy.
If I were to predict one starting running back that would lose his starting job in 2016, it would be Jeremy Langford. If you’ve been on any fantasy football website, you’ve read what I’ve read. He averaged 3.6 YPC, had the worst drop rate of any running back and wasn’t successful with goalline carries. At best for 2016, I think Langford heads a committee with Jordan Howard (Travis intelligently owns him btw), but at worst he loses his job to the more talented Howard in training camp. I think John Fox doesn’t give Howard the job right away, but like David Johnson in 2015, by November Howard is the #1 back in Chicago.
PK: Justin Tucker 9 PPG
PN: Shane Lechler 10 PPG
DT: Linval Joseph 14 PPG
Linval Joseph finally lived up to his potential in 2015, proving that 1-techniques can be successful fantasy contributors. Joseph was the best nose tackle in the NFL, and he may have been the most valuable player on the Vikings’ defense last season. While the ceiling is low for Joseph as he doesn’t rush the quarterback, the hole-clogger should prove to be a reliable top 10 option.
DE: Michael Bennett 15 PPG, Jurrell Casey 14 PPG
Another year and another Michael Bennett contract dispute. Regardless of that outcome, Bennett is another bargain signing by Travis and should be a top 10 option for fantasy purposes. Bennett offers elite run and pass rush skill which gives him as high of a ceiling as anyone except for Watt. Look for Bennett to reach double digit sacks and if his tackle numbers go up he could be a top 3 option.
Jurrell Casey since moving over to DE in 2014 has been somewhat of an underrated player. Casey will be a top 20 lock at a thin position. The 26-year-old doesn’t get the credit he deserves due to the team he plays for, but there are few players that will be as solid as Casey for the next few seasons. If he can wrangle 50 tackles and reach 10 sacks, he could sneak into the top 10.
LB: Jamie Collins 22 PPG, Ryan Shazier 19 PPG, Anthony Barr 14 PPG, Von Miller 12 PPG
Jamie Collins has been a player that I’ve wanted to have on my fantasy teams for the last two years. He has the elite pedigree from Georgia, Collins is a physical freak at 6’3 250 pounds. As we enter 2016, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Collins be the #1 linebacker for fantasy. He is in a fantastic position to do so as the weakside backer for the Pats. When healthy, Collins only averaged a PPG less than Kuechly. If it wasn’t for a virus that knocked Collins out for a month, he could have cost Travis $5 million more in the auction.
Ryan Shazier needs to stay healthy. He’s undersized which hasn’t helped, but concussion issues and shoulder problems have stalled his progression. Shazier’s injury problems showed on the field as well, as he was the 65th ranked linebacker out of 97 by PFF. He was bad in both run defense and coverage. Entering 2016, this is a make or break season for Shazier to live up to his potential.
Anthony Barr is an incredibly talented linebacker and one of the most valuable ones in the NFL, but he’s not an elite asset for fantasy. His job on the strongside caps his fantasy value to begin with, but Barr’s main duty is to rush the quarterback. He still makes for a solid back-end starter, but like many outside linebackers, is a boom or bust option.
Speaking of boom or bust option, there probably isn’t a better one than Von Miller. As an owner who started Von Miller last year, he was maddening to watch an elite talent not put up counting stats. I’ve beat the drum of not starting or paying elite outside linebackers due to their production being so stringent on sack production, but if you had to have one it would be Miller. Still, Travis should expect at least 40% of his games to be under 5 points, just like in 2015.
CB: Byron Maxwell 12 PPG, Darius Slay 10 PPG
Byron Maxwell is looking for redemption in his 3rd team in 3 years. Now the #1 corner in Miami, you can bet your last dollar he will be targeted by offensive coordinators. Whether he can live up to the task is irrelevant, as the targets thrown his way will produce fantasy points. If Maxwell proves tall to the task, he could rack up the INTs as well as tackles.
Darius Slay, unlike Maxwell was one of the best shutdown corners in the NFL last season. Slay is looking to get paid and another solid season should be right around the corner. Elite NFL corners are rarely in the elite category for fantasy and that is the case with Slay. He makes for a fringe starter at best.
S: Harrison Smith 17 PPG, Tony Jefferson 13 PPG
The key for Harrison Smith in 2016 is to stay healthy. The two of the last three years Smith has missed games due to injury, but every other year has been a healthy season for the 5th year pro. Smith is one of the best, if not the best safety in the NFL as he can do it all. Smith has the ability to cover the NFL’s best tight ends and be a run stuffer in the box. With Reshad Jones poised to once again be the #1 safety for fantasy, Smith is the dark horse in the race.
Tony Jefferson has just kind of been there the last few years. An undrafted free agent out of Oklahoma, Jefferson has been a borderline elite safety, ranking 18th out of 89th in last year’s PFF grades. He won’t wow you with his stats for fantasy or his play in the NFL, but he’s the typical steady fantasy producer.
Off: Arizona Cardinals 15 PPG
Total PPG: 330
Prediction: 8-8
Final Thoughts: After thoroughly analyzing Travis’ team, I definitely think he can make a run at the postseason. He’s got stars on defense and his quarterback is one of fantasy’s best. Where Travis will run into problems will be the upside of his offense. He needs a career year from McCoy, Landry can’t regress too much, Langford needs to avoid a timeshare, and Steve Smith has to get over his Achilles injury. Unfortunately, the odds of all four of these things happening are low, and Travis doesn’t have the depth to compensate. In a division that has two of the most talented owners in IFL, it’s going to be challenging for Travis to make a run at the division crown. I do think however a wild card is very much in play.