2016 AFC East Projections
By: Luke Monster
IFL!!! The most boring time of the year is upon us for the NFL and that means one thing… Predictions will be coming in hot and heavy! I hope you enjoy as I breakdown all 32 teams’ prospects this summer. A couple of things to keep in mind. My projections last year were high. Not extraordinarily high, but the vast majority of the teams finished below what I projected. I am trying to fix that this season with a little tinkering to my projections, but think of this exercise more so to a comparison of all teams.
New York Jets – Aaron
Coach: Marvin Lewis 6 PPG
QB: Matt Ryan 28 PPG
Matt Ryan is an overrated fantasy asset. Largely in part because he has a top 3 fantasy weapon in Julio Jones, Ryan has the reputation for turning in quality seasons. In 2014 he finished as the QB7, but in 2015 he dropped all the way down to the QB18. With no improvement to his receiving corps or offensive line, I don’t expect Ryan to vault into the top 10 again in 2016. Given that 2015 was his worst statistical year since 2009, I think a slight uptick in numbers is a safe call, but he’s still a fringe starting QB.
RB/WR/TE: Jamaal Charles 23 PPG, Keenan Allen 22 PPG, Allen Robinson 19 PPG, Ryan Matthews 19 PPG, TY Hilton 18 PPG, (6th man: Danny Woodhead 17 PPG)
I’m going to be real with you IFL, this is the best offense I’ve written about thus far in the AFC. There is an abundance of what I look for, star power and depth. He has the best crop of running backs in the AFC East with Jamaal Charles, Ryan Matthews, Danny Woodhead and Isaiah Crowell all occupying significant roles in their offenses. His wideouts are also solid yet deep with Keenan Allen, Allen Robinson, TY Hilton and Michael Crabtree. This has playoff caliber offense written all over it.
Yes Jamaal Charles tore his ACL for the 2nd time in the last 5 years, but I’m not ready to throw this 29-year-old fantasy asset in the trash bin. He will be a top 10 fantasy player once again. The best stat to show Charles’ dominance is his YPC, which has never dipped under 5.0 EVER in his career. That’s absurd. Guess how many running backs in the history of the NFL has a better YPC in their career? None. As we enter the 2016 season, Charles may be in for a regression as Kansas City looks to monitor his workload as Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware both proved to be reliable backs. Anywhere from 220-250 carries sounds about right.
Keenan Allen was on his way to a top 10 fantasy season catching a healthy 67 balls in the 1st half of the year. Unfortunately a kidney injury ended his career year, but Allen is poised to leave his mark on the NFL. The 6’2 211 pound receiver would have recorded around 125 receptions and close to 1,400 yards over the course of a full season. There’s no reason to expect the #1 weapon of the Chargers offense to regress from the season prior.
Allen Robinson is who most people would call the most valuable dynasty asset on Aaron’s team and I would agree. A-Rob has turned into a star for the Jaguars ascendant offense with last year’s statline of 80 receptions, 1,400 yards and 14 touchdowns. He is a bonafide WR1, but there is a decent chance that the receptions and touchdowns go down. The Jags have pledged they will be more run heavy with the Chris Ivory and TJ Yeldon tandem. The Jags were also behind in many games, giving Robinson the opportunity for more chances to catch the football. A-Rob will probably lose a couple hundred yards from last season and he may not reach double digit TDs, but he’s still a top 15 wide receiver lock.
Ryan Matthews mantra has been “I’m a quality back, but I can’t sustain a heavy workload.” Matthews is once again looking at starter usage. The last time he was a starter and was fully healthy, he received 285 carries, with 1,255 yards and 6 TDs. That is fantastic production for a back-end starter. Matthews has found himself in a run-heavy system with Doug Peterson and I believe he’s being overlooked as a stable fantasy option. There is always the risk for injury, but is poised for a solid RB2 season.
TY Hilton has always kind of been there when it comes to solid wide receivers. He did regress across the board last year, but that’s obvious why. The question is what does his usage look like when Luck is healthy and Donte Moncrief is starting opposite of him? Probably about the same as his 2014 numbers. Hilton will never be an elite fantasy wideout or redzone option, but he definitely gets the job done as a back-end starter.
PK: Blair Walsh 9 PPG
PN: PN: Matt Darr 10 PPG
DT: Malik Jackson 12 PPG
Malik is currently listed as a DE, but has switch over to DT on Rotoworld and the positional change should occur soon on MFL. Jackson has been a solid, but unspectacular fantasy option since 2013, and that shouldn’t change as a DT in Jacksonville. His role should be rather similar as an interior defender, but he will be asked to rush the passer which helps his upside. The move to DT definitely makes him a more valuable fantasy commodity, and will probably end up in the top 10 at the position.
DE: Cameron Wake 12 PPG, Michael Johnson 11 PPG
Aaron is betting on Cameron Wake coming back from a ruptured Achilles and leading his defensive end unit. That’s probably not the best idea in the world, especially after only scoring two points the 1st 4 weeks of 2015, but he was an elite producer in 2014 and is expected to be 100% for training camp. His situation is certainly worth monitoring, but Wake should make for a DE1 in IFL.
Michael Johnson is very sack dependent. Half of his games in 2015 had Johnson scoring under 10 PPG. That won’t get it done and Aaron will be asking for more as the season is underway. Johnson’s tackle floor is rather low with the talent surrounding him on the defensive line, and he’s not a quality player himself, receiving negative grades the last two seasons by PFF. This could be the last season Michael Johnson starts, but there is no one breathing down his neck on the depth chart to steal snaps away.
LB: Thomas Davis 17 PPG, Lawrence Timmons 16 PPG, Will Compton 16 PPG, Wesley Woodyard 14 PPG
Thomas Davis is in the tier of quality linebackers over 30 that year after year come back and make a fantasy roster better. If you haven’t heard his story, it’s simply amazing. A career Panther, he was close to being cut after he tore his ACL for a 3rd time in his NFL journey, but he took a pay cut, came back and is now a top 10 linebacker for fantasy. As we enter 2016, I expect to see a regression for the 33-year-old both due to his age and the emergence of Shaq Thompson opposite of him on the strongside.
Lawrence Timmons was a disaster in 2015. After positing positive PFF grades for the majority of his career, Timmons ended up 87th out of 97 in PFF grading. Terrible both against the run and pass, it’s reasonable to consider Timmons over the hill. He could be this year’s Paul Worrilow, a guy who needs to be replaced as soon as possible, but doesn’t have an adequate replacement backing him up. The opportunity is still there for Timmons and as we’ve seen time and time again with linebackers who are bad at football, all they need is to rack up tackles to be viable IDP assets.
The trend of terrible linebackers continue on with Will Compton who finished as the 3rd worst linebacker according to PFF grades in 2015. Compton is the leader of the Redskins’ dynamite inside linebacking unit that was the worst in the NFL last year. That trend will continue in 2015, but Compton stats should take a step forward with full time duties coming his way. I may be giving him too much credit, but he’s a top 30 linebacker based on opportunity alone.
There’s probably a GM reading this article who has been burned by Wesley Woodyard breakout hype before a regular season. That’s actually a very common theme among Titans’ linebackers, but unlike the previous two linebackers I’ve discussed, Woodyard posted elite NFL numbers in 2015. Woodyard is an elite run defender and adequate in coverage, he’s a sneaky bet to turn in a starter worthy 2016 campaign if the Titans feel like he can replicate what he did last season. There will be some consistency issues with Woodyard, but he should come close to 100 tackles to and half a dozen sacks to end the year.
CB: Ronald Darby 15 PPG, Brent Grimes 12 PPG
Ronald Darby’s rookie season was arguably better than Marcus Peters, as he was more consistent over the course of the season. Yes he didn’t score two touchdowns, but he allowed only 4 touchdowns all season. As he enters 2016, I think he stands pat as a top 5 corner for two reasons: the people who record tackles in Buffalo are incredibly friendly in handing out solos and assists and he only had two INTs in 2015. That’s bound to go up.
Brent Grimes is on the decline, but will be a starting corner for the terrible Bucs secondary. Grimes is not an elite corner anymore, and he should be targeted more than ever before. Grimes should be a solid fantasy starter at corner, but nothing better than top 30 numbers should be expected.
S: Kurt Coleman 16 PPG, Karl Joseph 12 PPG
Kurt Coleman coming out of nowhere to be a top 5 safety helped many owners vault themselves into the playoffs in 2015. 2016 should be no different for the 28-year-old, as he’s earned full time starter duties for the best defense in the NFL. He plays in the box more than most free safeties do, so his fantasy upside should be safe.
Karl Joseph is an interesting rookie safety to diagnose, because he’s the best safety from the 2016 draft class, but he’s undersized and we don’t fully know how he will be used for the Raiders. He’s listed as a strong safety and I have read he will be used in the box some, but it’s hard to say that Joseph will be anything more than a fringe fantasy starter year one. Although as far as starters are concerned, Aaron could do much worse. The upside is very much there for Joseph.
Off: Houston Texans 10 PPG
Total PPG: 317
Prediction: 8-8
Final Thoughts: I’m a very big fan of Aaron’s offense for year one, as I think it has the upside to put up big numbers each week. I believe it can sustain an injury or two as well, which is needed when Ryan Matthews and Jamaal Charles are in your starting 5. The depth certainly factored into my prediction for Aaron, as his offense could carry him into a wild card berth. The problem that limits his squad is his defense. His defensive ends are by far his weakest unit on his team and there will be weeks he gets less than 10 points from both of them. His linebackers after Thomas Davis are inconsistent and bad at football. Only Thomas Davis and Curt Coleman both have serious talent and I worry that Aaron won’t do enough research to keep that part of his team competitive. I thought really hard about his prediction, having him winning as much as 10 games. I don’t believe he’ll get there due to the division he plays in with two proven quality owners and a 3rd that is looking to make the jump into the playoffs. If Aaron makes a couple moves for quality defenders without compromising his starting unit, I think his offense could lead him to a division championship. But he has to make quite a few moves for his defense to reach the level of his offense and the offense of course has to stay healthy and not regress.