Coach: Andy Reid 6 PPG
QB: Jameis Winston 28 PPG & Marcus Mariota 27 PPG
After over a year of owning both, it is a goddam travesty Curt still invests $23 million into two quarterbacks. It makes no sense to invest that much money into two quarterbacks, but sense and Curt don’t always meet. I think Winston starts most weeks. His weapons have graduated into one of the best units in the league, and his gunslinging mentality is an effective way to create chunk points. There will be many, probably close to half of the games, where Mariota will be the better choice. It’s a great advantage to own a competent backup, and Mariota should finish in the top 10 QBs. However, his mobility is restricted by the coaching staff and Mariota hasn’t played in 16 games his first two years. His ceiling may be higher than Winston’s but at $13 million, he’s obviously been difficult to move. Maybe a deal will never happen for Curt and if it doesn’t he still owns the best 1-2 QB unit in the league.
RB/WR/TE: Jay Ajayi 27 PPG, Jordan Reed 20 PPG, Greg Olsen 18 PPG, Eddie Lacy 16 PPG, Kenny Britt 15 PPG (6th men: Corey Davis 14 PPG, Randall Cobb 14 PPG, Cameron Brate 14 PPG, Will Fuller 13 PPG, CJ Fiedorowicz 13 PPG)
I could make a case that Curt’s 2nd offensive group is better than some starting units in the AFC.
Jay Ajayi is set to become the offense in Miami. If Ajayi is over 1,500 total yards this year, the Dolphins will be in the playoffs. Their plan worked and Ajayi is, in fact, a beast who can stay healthy. A 27 PPG prediction could be too low, as he’s my favorite back to join the elites in Bell, DJ and Zeke if he can stay healthy. The offensive line will have to play its part, but there’s a chance Ajayi is the x-factor in this close AFC West race. I like Lewis’ stars more, but Curt’s overall team is superior to Lewis’. If Ajayi can mitigate the advantage DJ gives Lewis, Curt could dominate this division from start to finish.
Reed is another candidate for progression, if healthy. He’s a walking injury bomb, however, there’s only one TE I would rather own when 100% healthy. Reed is now the unquestioned alpha target for the Redskins, with DJax and Garcon out the door. I would like to see Reed stay healthy and buck the trend of his injury prone status. However, with Cousins soon to be out the door, Reed’s value is unlikely to ever increase. There will always be something wrong with him. But when he’s healthy and playing, there are few offensive players Curt would rather have starting.
As a former Greg Olsen owner, he’s amazing to own. Last year, he was the best of the high floor types. He’s not a big touchdown scorer, but he scored under 10 points twice. What’s amazing about TE scoring is a marginal scoring week is still a great. For example, Olsen’s week 1 game against the Broncos was 7 receptions for 73 yards and he accumulated 22 points. It’s a pretty standard week for Olsen, but think about the weeks he goes off. His 41 point week against the Bucs with 9 receptions for 181 yards was gravy for owners who expect his standard 20 points. A regression is inputted because the McCaf and Samuel selections should reinvent the offense a bit, but Olsen is the TE that will keep on giving.
The Lacy v Rawls battle in Seattle could be one of the most lucrative battles to watch in training camp. Yes, the Seahawks line sucks and they’ve gone to a more pass-heavy approach, but the Hawks’ successful roots lie with their running game. This is a very lazy comparison, but Lacy is expected to become the next Marshawn. A castoff from his former team, Lacy is now in Seattle to prove he’s still a gamer. Rawls will be a formidable opponent, and this is a battle I wouldn’t want to bet on in Vegas. I think Lacy wins, but there will be some target loss from Rawls and the little discussed CJ Prosise.
There are some uber Kenny Britt lovers in IFL. Sometimes I feel like I’m the only one who remembers who the Browns are. No, they aren’t some elite offensive attack with multiple weapons. This time last year, Britt was waiver fodder, Cody Kessler was a backup rookie QB and Isiah Crowell was going to be benched for Duke Johnson. Now all of a sudden people are lining up to pick the best of the fucking Browns. I’m here to tell y’all to relax. Britt is not a special talent and it should exceed expectations that Britt becomes 2016 Pryor. (Pryor’s output was 15 PPG btw) Anyway you slice it, Britt is nothing more than a 4/5th starter, but that’s not to say he won’t be startable, especially against below average corners. With all the depth Curt has, Britt is the best of his fringe guys, but he could very easily be overcome by Corey Davis in the first couple of weeks.
PK: Sabastian Janikowski 9 PPG
PN: Thomas Morstead 9 PPG
DT: Johnathan Hankins 7 PPG
It’s a shame to watch a fantasy viable DT go from a good situation to a deplorable one. The Colts 1-tech role is a fantasy wasteland, one that I’ve never seen anyone succeed from. As an interior defensive lineman for the Colts, Hankins will constantly take on double teams from the guard and center, opening up holes for other players to take on the fantasy production. Unless I am incorrect on how the Colts will utilize him, Hankins is down in the DT doldrums. Sell before it’s too late.
DE: Cameron Jordan 15 PPG, Myles Garrett 13 PPG
Last week I talked about Jordan as the best player on the Saints’ defense and that hasn’t changed in a week. Jordan was a great signing by Curt this offseason, as he had nothing at this position at the end of 2016. Jordan should be a top 10 DE again, and he’s the type of set it and forget it player you look for in fantasy.
Who knows what Myles Garrett will be year one. The obvious answer is beastly. But as a rookie, it usually takes time for ends to adjust to the NFL. What worries me more than anything else with Garrett is the way he’s used. How much is he rotated out to stay healthy? What if he constantly has foot issues like his last year at A&M and OTAs? There’s a lot under the surface to worry about, and I’m not willing to put Garrett anything higher than a top 20 option. Still, not the worst thing in the world for a rookie DE, as the best is yet to come for the #1 pick.
LB: Deion Jones 16 PPG, Sean Lee 16 PPG, BJ Goodson 14 PPG, Brian Orakpo 12 PPG
Deion Jones is exactly the type of linebacker you want to own in today’s NFL. He’s a jack of all trades type of player, not excelling at any one thing, but being above average at everything. He’s uber athletic and is put in the best situations to score a butload of points. On a super cheap contract, there may not be a linebacker I would rather own in IFL right now. Jones is what we wanted Myles Jack, Jaylon Smith and Darron Lee to be. It should be more of the same for 2017.
Sean Lee finally didn’t have a season cut short by injury and he showed the elite play the Cowboy MLB is known for when on the field. This year, he will have to contend with Jaylon Smith, who should take away some of Lee’s ceiling. Still, there’s not much competition for tackles in Dallas, so Lee should continue to ball out, as long as he stays on the field.
BJ Goodson is projected to start in the middle of the Giants’ defense, but it’s yet to be seen if he can hold a job and be competent. Any MLB job is IDP currency, but the Giants haven’t been able to solidify the position for years. It’s another frustrating year to attempt to predict how that position will shakeout, but if Goodson can maintain the position all year, he should be looking at low LB2 numbers. Avery Williamson is what he should aspire to be.
Orakpo is the traditional passrusher who’s an elite player at his NFL role, but it’s not conducive to IDP production. After years of dominance and season ending injuries, Orakpo continues to play at a Pro Bowl level. He makes for a shaky LB4, with many boom or bust weeks.
CB: Bashaud Breeland 14 PPG, Josh Norman 12 PPG
Breeland was one of the premiere corners to own, as he is opposite Josh Norman. Breeland is actually one of the safest corners to target, as he’s traditionally a high tackle guy. Being opposite of one of the elite corners gives him the floor you look for. He’s a safe bet for top 10 production again.
Norman was one of the rare quality corners to own, and it was due to his high level of pass deflections. Will that trend continue in 2017? It’s hard to say, as I’ve never looked into whether or not PDs are a volatile stat or not, but my guess is they are. Norman should still be on the CB2 radar, which is about as good as it gets for an elite corner. If Norman posts another top 10 season, it’s icing on the cake.
S: Keanu Neal 17 PPG, JJ Wilcox 13 PPG
Neal quietly put up amazing numbers as a rookie, and his season is what Jamal Adams should aspire to. Neal didn’t appear in the first two games, yet he pulled a Joey Bosa and balled out once he returned. Neal is essentially a quality linebacker at the safety position. He’s is the epitome of the box safety in today’s NFL, and Neal’s skillset fits perfectly. The Falcons never asked him to do something he wasn’t used to his rookie year, and that shouldn’t change as they continue to utilize him as an elite defender in the run game.
JJ Wilcox joins the Tampa 2. As long as he’s the starter next to Justin Evans, Wilcox, should provide serviceable numbers. It doesn’t matter who plays safety in this scheme as Wilcox is far from an elite talent, but both safeties accumulate numbers. Wilcox will see completion from Chris Conte and Keith ‘Candy Man’ Tandy, but his role is worth betting on.
Off: Kansas City Chiefs 10 PPG
Total: 307
2016 Total: 313
Prediction: 9-7
2016 Prediction: 9-7
It’s really close between Curt and Lewis, as both teams are better in different areas. Lewis is absurdly absent in the depth, where Curt lacks starpower. Curt has holes on defense, and his key to filling a DT, LBer and safety spot lies in a trade with Mariota or Winston. Curt’s floor is high, as the depth on his offense will never ask him to start randoms. I do question Curt as a GM. I’m not sure he’s ready to build a championship roster. But the team he’s built for 2017 is currently the best in the west and my choice as the new king of the roulette division.