Coach: Mike Tomlin 6 PPG
QB: Matt Ryan 33 PPG
I’ve had some Lukewarm takes in my day, but my worst one was saying Jay Cutler for a 3rd round pick was better value than Matt Ryan for a 2nd. Looking back to this time last year, that proclamation wasn’t so crazy, as Cutler finished .5 PPG lower than Ryan the year prior. But, here we are, one is MVP and one is retired. Like I said in my last Ryan blurb, I believe he’s turned the corner into one of the NFL’s best. And he’s got Julio Jones, the most physically imposing wide receiver in the game.
WR/RB/TE: Antonio Brown 24 PPG, Christian McCaffrey 19 PPG, Joe Mixon 19 PPG, Devante Adams 16 PPG, Kyle Rudolph 16 PPG (6th men: Tevin Coleman 15 PPG, Jeremy Maclin 15 PPG, Will Fuller 13 PPG)
Consider me shocked Brown was dealt. While Brown immediately becomes Andrew’s strongest offensive weapon, he gave up two elite offensive prospects to do so. AJ Green isn’t Brown, but the drop off isn’t significant. Brown did score 4 PPG ahead of Green, but also shipping out Greg Olsen, a player who is good for at least 270 points hurts. He was a huge kicker in this deal, and the depth of Drew’s offense took a hit. As far as Brown is concerned, he’s the #1 fantasy receiver, and there’s no receiver I would rather own in fantasy.
McCaffrey’s skillset offers the highest ceiling of any prospect coming out of the draft. He can carry the ball 20 times, catch the ball 10 times, and handle kick and punt return duties all at elite levels. It’s a matter on how he will be utilized. At this point in the offseason, I see his ceiling capped by the situation. There are many questions that need answers. At the forefront, how will Stewart impact CMC’s rushing touches? If Stewart handles 1st, 2nd and goaline touches, then I see him as Danny Woodhead. If he ends up splitting the aforementioned role, then he may join the top 16 offensive weapon conversation. I worry that Stewart hurts him more than we are being led to believe by the dynasty community. It may take a year to really see what CMC can do, and dare I say it, I fear his career may end up similar to Reggie Bush.
Mixon is another back who’s usage concerns me more than the consensus, but first the good. Mixon reminds many experts of Zeke. He’s got the tools to impact games in both rushing and passing situations, along with being an adequate pass blocker. Hill’s been underwhelming the last two seasons, but like Stewart, he’s the incumbent of the job. Mixon wins this job, but how much will Hill spell him? Gio rejoins the offense after six games, and he’s an elite 3rd down back. Mixon didn’t face as many 8-man boxes as 4Net, CMC or Cook, and the Bengals lost two Pro-Bowlers in Andrew Whitworth and Kevin Zeitler. Mixon is an elite prospect, and we will know how much he’s impressed the Bengals’ coaching staff with his usage to begin the year.
Adams has graduated past Cobb to become the #2 weapon in Green Bay’s offense. The question is if he can sustain his level of play we saw in 2016 after flopping big time in 2015. I think he should be fine, but he could struggle with consistency. I think Adams is a great investment in this league as I don’t think he’ll ever be a top 5 receiver and receive the holdout tag, but he will remain relevant enough to be a good 4/5 starter and keep his salary low.
Kyle Rudolph came to life for the 1st time in his career. He avoided the injury bug, and he was featured in an underwhelming dink and dunk offense. Bradford is a good enough quarterback to give Rudolph sustained success. He just needs to stay healthy to be relevant in an offense that desperately needs him to sustain. Can he do it again and fulfil the potential many saw when he began his career. Rudolph is still somewhat of a forgotten man, but if he can do it again, Andrew may be winning the west this year.
PK: Caleb Sturgis 9 PPG
PN: Johnny Hekker 14 PPG
DT: Kyle Williams 12 PPG
Kyle Williams is one of those players who you forget about his elite play because the Bills suck and their defensive scheme did as well under Rex. But just a few years ago, Williams led DTs in points. While we don’t know exactly what his usage will be at his advanced age, I do know he’s not a bad option at the position. I like Williams as a top 10 option at a position that is very scarce on talent.
DE: Muhammad Wilkerson 15 PPG Akiem Hicks 14 PPG
Big Mo was a beast in 2015 before breaking his leg the last game of the year, but last season’s rotation and a tumultuous 2016 saw Wilk take a step back in production. There was talk of him giving up and taking plays off. It was concerning, to say the least, but it’s not like his talent all of a sudden disappeared. There isn’t much to get excited about if you’re a Jets fan or player, but my gut is telling me Wilk will be fine.
Hicks put his talent on display last season on a deficient Bears’ team that desperately needed the run stopping ability Hicks provides. As far a 5-techs in 3-4 defenses go, he’s not a bad option, as evidenced by the healthy $7 million contract it took to sign him. Hicks filled a big need for Drew, as the depth behind him currently features two 2nd year players in Nkemdiche and Lawson who have yet to make an impact. Hicks is a safe and sound investment.
LB: Benardrick McKinney 18 PPG, Justin Houston 15 PPG, Vic Beasley 15 PPG, Ramik Wilson 14 PPG
O boy, so writing about my feelings about McKinney and Houston is tough, as I’ve been inquiring about them recently, but here it goes. I like McKinney, a lot. He eats up tackles complimented by a bevvy of elite pass rushers and sometimes joins the sack party because he’s largely forgotten about. Yes, there are better players on this defense, and there may even now be a better inside linebacker, but that doesn’t mean his role is deteriorating anytime soon. It’s possible McKinney sees less snaps on passing downs, but I want to see it before having him take a step back like many analysts believe.
Houston, like most pass rushers, is volatile. But Houston can change weeks. He can win you matchups by taking over games with his Hall of Fame pass rush ability. Look no further than his 53 point performance his 2nd game back from a torn ACL in a huge Sunday night game against the Broncos. What about the season he notched 22 sacks! Due to his partially torn ACL, Houston almost a man forgotten. He may not be the 1st name that pops up when you think of elite pass rushers, but he’s still elite.
Speaking of elite pass rushers, Vic Beasley came alive and lead the NFL in sacks last year. Just a quarter away from a ring, it’s a shame he couldn’t notch a sack in the 4th quarter to help put the Patriots away. Entering 2017, it should be more of the same for Beasley, and he should make a solid impact in over half the games he plays for Drew. It’s a shame he doesn’t play DE in base sets, but he’s still not a bad option as a 3rd or 4th option.
Ramik Wilson isn’t an elite player, but he may find himself getting more usage this year as Derrick Johnson is returning from another torn Achilles. While not used in ways that provide their owners with big production, he provides a decent floor while being on the field for the majority of snaps. I like Wilson’s chances to staying relevant for many years, and if/when DJ is out of the picture, he will be one to watch if he takes over his star studded job.
CB: Stephen Gilmore 12 PPG, AJ Bouye 11 PPG
I love Gilmore this year, and I feel like every article I write includes a current or former Patriots cornerback. He’s more than likely going to be a top 16 corner, and he’s shown that he can be an adequate starter.
Bouye is starting opposite of an emerging corner in Jalen Ramsey. His opportunity will more than likely be volatile and depends on who he’s going up against each week. If he ends up outperforming Ramsey, he should be avoided. As of right now, he’s a fringe starter, but a decent option.
S: Malcom Jenkins 13 PPG, Earl Thomas 12 PPG
Jenkins isn’t the weapon he was a couple years ago, but he’s still a decent S2. If it wasn’t for his two touchdowns last year, he would have really disappointed, and it’s possible I don’t view him as startable. I do expect bounce backounceback, but he’s still not used the same since they move to a 4-3 defense.
Earl Thomas is an overrated fantasy prospect, but it doesn’t get much better as far as free safeties are concerned. His real life value trumps fantasy by a country mile, and he’s barely a startable option. Drew can and should do better than Thomas, as he’s best used as a bye week fill-in.
Off: Carolina Panthers 11 PPG
Total PPG: 318
2016 Total PPG: 280
Prediction: 9-7
2016 Prediction: 4-12
I’m teetering on this prediction, between 8-8 and 9-7. Andrew overachieved last year, and he’s improved his offense immensely. I think his season comes down to how well his rookies perform. If CMC and Mixon become studs, he could run away with the West. There’s not a team in this division that’s complete, but Andrew is the closest. His starpower isn’t on par with Will’s at least not yet, but the future is bright in LA and the present may be too.
