Coach: Jon Gruden 4 PPG
QB: Carson Wentz 31 PPG
The 2017 MVP before he tore his ACL and Big Dick Foles had to carry the Eagles to their first Super Bowl, Wentz is gearing up for another elite season. Wentz came into his own in year two, with an offense catered to his strengths, and plus offensive pieces surrounding him. Nothing major has changed except the OC is out of town, but that shouldn’t affect production as Doug Peterson was calling the plays anyway. Another MVP season could be well on the way, as is a top 3 QB campaign.
RB/WR/TE: DeAndre Hopkins 23 PPG, Stefon Diggs 17 PPG, Larry Fitzgerald 17 PPG, Julian Edelman 15 PPG, Michael Crabtree 14 PPG (6th men: Randall Cobb 14 PPG, Rishard Matthews 14 PPG, DJ Moore 13 PPG, Kelvin Benjamin 13 PPG, DeVante Parker 13 PPG, James White 10 PPG)
I want to preface with disappointment we didn’t get to see Bell and David Johnson on the same team. Both were looking at 31 PPG in 2018, which probably would have made Spencer the favorite in the AFC if he could build a semi-competent roster.
DeAndre Hopkins, man purse and all are looking like he’s going to be a stud receiver for awhile tied together with Deshawn Watson. Hopkins was easily the best wide receiver when Watson was healthy and that may not change when he’s fully healthy again. The Texans don’t have many options to look for production along their offense other than their elite QB/WR tandem. No reason to dock points on Hopkins for anything, he’s going to be a top 16 option in the IFL.
Every year, I hear Diggs is ready to go supernova, profiling as the next Antonio Brown. We are still waiting for the elite breakout, but Diggs is still an adequate low-end WR1. Like all wide receivers in this format, he will struggle with consistency, but Diggs finally has an above average quarterback. If Cousins can elevate his play from the days in Washington, the upside for Diggs is immense. Let’s just hope he stays off the trainer’s table.
The ageless Larry Fitzgerald is looking like a value again in his last year in the NFL. Seamlessly transitioned from the outside to the slot, Fitz seemed to have extended his career and been an excellent asset for IFL GMs at his yearly cost. The only concern is a new coaching staff in Arizona may want to focus more on the run and their younger weapons. I still would be surprised to see Fitz dip below 250, and is a very safe 4/5 option for any offense.
Julian Edelman, with all his flaws, is still a startable asset in the league. There are many red flags on his value. The 4-game suspension, coming off a season-ending ACL tear and the wheels could fall off of Brady at any time. Like Fitz, Spencer is taking the safe route in employing a slot receiver with a high floor. When Edelman comes back, he should be right back to producing like he did in 2016.
Michael Crabtree has moved to Baltimore and projected to be the number one receiving option for the Ravens. They completely updated their receiving corps, which was one of the worst in the NFL. Crabs should be their go-to receiving option, especially in the red zone, which will drive his value. Hopefully, the Ravens can establish some sort of offense this year under Flacco to give Lamar time to develop. Crabs will be a big part of it and will be the main beneficiary if so. He’s projected as a low-end WR2 at the moment, with upside for a bit more.
PK: Chandler Catanzaro 8 PPG
PN: Matt Haack 10 PPG
DT: Gerald McCoy 12 PPG
Good ol’ Gerald is gonna eat like a beast this year with possibly the best defensive line he’s ever had. Hopefully, that projection can be accurate as it will help McCoy have open opportunities for sacks. McCoy has dealt with horrid supporting casts his entire career despite holding down the 3-tech spot for 7 years. McCoy has always been in the top 10 DT options and that isn’t going to change heading into 2018.
DE: Bruce Irvin 15 PPG, Jerry Hughes 11 PPG
Irvin was invisibly moved to DE and he scored a robust 228 in DE scoring in 2017, which is high-end DE2 numbers. This year he’s being projected to see more pass rushing opportunities, increasing his upside. Irvin is into his 30’s but has shown annual promise, just not as a valuable IDP position. That all changes this year. If you have other IDP leagues you’re drafting in, he’s a fantastic undervalued target.
Hughes has been a steady presence in the DE2 ranks for the last few years. He’s been the topic of positional changes the last few years, but when he’s at end, he’s been valuable for the most part, except in 2017 where he took a step back. There are many options along the Bills’ defensive line vying for snaps. If Hughes struggles this year, we could see his snaps scaled back for Trent Murphy, Shaq Lawson or Eddie Yarborough.
LB: Brandon Marshall 15 PPG, Darius Leonard 15 PPG, Derrick Johnson 14 PPG
Brandon Marshall has been serviceable the last few years in the middle of Denver’s defense. He’s never been a difference maker for IFL GM’s, but you can count on him never leaving the field, giving Marshall a solid floor. His 2017 was improved from the year prior after Wade Phillips’ unfriendly scheme left town. Marshall should be around the same numbers this year from last, as nothing has really changed.
Darius Leonard came into the draft as a linebacker sleeper and he left a first-round pick in the IFL. That’s the world we live in the IFL where linebackers are extremely valuable as they take up a large chunk of our starting lineup and weekly points. It’s pretty simple with Leonard, if he starts, he’s going to vacuum up tackles on a terrible Colts’ defense. The upside for Leonard is immense if he can be a competent backer. His draft pedigree suggests the Colts are ready for him to start right away. That will be something for Spencer to watch.
Derrick Johnson doesn’t die. I appreciate that and hopefully he can manage to keep a hold on the MLB position in Oakland. It’s a valuable position, one that Bowman saw great success in 2017. Johnson’s efficiency fell off a cliff last season and was not startable in our league despite not having a decrease in snaps. I’m a bit apprehensive to project an improvement from last year, but I think the scheme change will help.
CB: Quincy Wilson 12 PPG, Logan Ryan 11 PPG
O lawd the Colts’ cornerback room is a mess. It’s led by 2nd year, 2nd round pick Quincy Wilson, who is projected to thrust into a starting role. He didn’t play many snaps last year, which is concerning as there wasn’t much obstructing him. He’s going to be targeted like crazy and an excellent option for a league like ours.
Logan Ryan used to be a top 10 IDP corner with the CB-friendly New England, but predictably fell back to Earth in Tennessee. 2018 shouldn’t be much different. I’m curious to see how the Titan cornerback situation is settled and who will be off the field in base sets. Perhaps that’s Ryan and something to watch in training camp.
S: Matthias Farley 13 PPG, HaHa Clinton-Dix 13 PPG, Tyrann Mathieu 11 PPG
Matthias Farley is in a training camp battle with Clayton Gathers, but seems to have the leg up as Gathers can’t stay healthy. Farley was serviceable last year, so it’s expected to see him back in the position. With a weak linebacking group ahead of him, Farley could flirt with low-end S1 numbers again. However, new defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus comes from the Tampa 2 scheme which doesn’t provide safeties many opportunities to sit near the line of scrimmage.
HaHa Clinton-Dix’s first two years were rather productive for a free safety, but his turnover numbers were down in 2017, which resulted in Dix being a S2. This year, Dix enters a new scheme, but things won’t be too different from his time under Dom Capers. I expect Dix’s turnover numbers to increase slightly to return him to low-end S1 numbers.
Tyrann Mathieu joins the Texans as their new strong safety, but historically the Texans safeties do not play anywhere near the line of scrimmage. They play mostly cover 2 looks with safeties 8 or more yards behind the line of scrimmage. The Honey Badger unfortunatley hasn’t been a valuable IDP for years and I don’t expect that to change.
Off: New Orleans Saints 14 PPG
2018 PPG: 295
Outlook: Before the edits, Spencer’s team was at 304 PPG and 7-9 projected record. After dealing Harrison and Telvin Smith, Spencer is looking to build for 2019. Spencer’s team has a decent floor and depth is not an issue on offense. Studs are few and far between, something Spencer should rectify before week 1 games next year. Like many other franchises, having 10-12 offensive pieces that score 13 PPG doesn’t do shit. 4-6 offensive pieces that score over 17 PPG is what will put Spencer in contention. I hate to be packing onto Spencer here, but it’s an issue that many teams struggle with, especially in dealing their studs for 4-5 meh pieces. The draft picks he received in his recent deals will come in handy to build a team that can compete with Baltimore for the long-term. But it’s safe to rule out Spencer for the 2018 season, and it’s possible we see more seller deals before the season is underway.
W-L: 6-10
