Coach: Mike Zimmer 7 PPG
QB: Drew Brees 28 PPG
Is Drew Brees still a top 5 NFL quarterback? Most definitely. Is he still a top 5 fantasy quarterback? No. Reason being the Saints have adjusted into a much more run-centric team with Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara. Brees’ PPG shot down to 28 PPG in 2018, which is still top 10 worthy. Brees is still leading an elite offense with above average weapons, so the upside is still there for another elite season, but his days as one of fantasy’s elite options are likely over. It’s also possible we continue to see the decline of Brees at his ripe age of 39.
RB/WR/TE: Jordan Howard 20 PPG, Mark Ingram 20 PPG, Kyle Rudolph 16 PPG, Nelson Agholor 14 PPG, Jack Doyle 14 PPG, (6th men: Bilal Powell 14 PPG, Taywan Taylor 9 PPG)
A new coaching staff has taken over in Chicago and Jordan Howard’s role as their 1st, 2nd and goaline back appears safe. Howard has two 1,000 yard rushing seasons under his belt and we know he can run the football effectively. Nagy has expressed interest in getting Tarik more involved and views him as his new Tyreek Hill. That’s a bit unusual, as Hill plays outside receiver on most of his snaps. The biggest question to Howard’s value is how much Cohen spells him. If he has a similar role to 2017, he’s an easy 20 PPG projection.
Mark Ingram got popped for a 4-game PED suspension which is killer for Travis’ outlook through the doubleheaders. Arguably his best player, it’s going to be very tough to be competitive in the East with lack of a viable replacement. Once Ingram returns from suspension, it’s very possible Kamara takes more carries and Ingram’s 2017 PPG decreases. That’s what’s going on with the 20 PPG, which still is nothing to sneeze at.
Word out of Minnesota is that Kyle Rudolph will be utilized more than ever before in the passing game. Rudolph wasn’t a serious fantasy factor in 2017, but that could change if DeFilippo utilizes the tight end like he has in his past stints. I expect an increase this year for Rudolph, with the possibility of double-digit touchdowns. The most important issue is an increase in receptions and the points will come.
Nelson Agholor finally showed the NFL what he could do with career highs in receptions, yardage, and touchdowns. Everything except a duplication of 8 touchdowns is likely, with a possibility of his first 1000 yard season. Agholor still won’t be more than a back-end starter in Philly with Wentz notorious for spreading the receptions around.
Jack Doyle is boring. He quietly was more than serviceable in 2017, despite his lack of athleticism. Heading into 2018, there are two new factors for Doyle, one good and one bad. The good is top 5 quarterback Andrew Luck returns to the Colts, which should increase the fantasy viability of the Colts. Problem is, the Colts added Eric Ebron, who specializes in receiving. The Colts will likely use 12 personnel more often than not, with Doyle being the 1st string tight end with his blocking ability giving him extra snaps.
PK: Justin Tucker 11 PPG
PN: Rigoberto Sanchez 10 PPG
DT: Linval Joseph 13 PPG
Linval Joseph has been a mainstay in the DT stud rankings for years and he could have a career year along a stacked Vikings defensive line. Joseph never leaves the field and has a high ceiling for sacks. A true 4-3 DT 3-tech, he’s exactly what you look for in an IDP. With little injury concerns, there are fewer safer options heading into 2018.
DE: Calais Campbell 19 PPG, Jurrell Casey 13 PPG
Calais Campbell has always been a solid and steady option for defensive players, but he absolutely erupted in Jacksonville. A true career year, 2017 saw Campbell hit a career high in sacks with 14.5. The Jaguar defensive line gives Campbell a higher upside than anytime he had in Arizona with almost everyone along their line a serious pass rush threat. The 6’8 mammoth is 32, but should still have another couple of elite years left in him. There are few safer bets for elite production.
Jurrell Casey has recently seen himself in the news for stating he will be kneeling to protest police brutality to the African American community, but don’t ever overlook the Pro-Bowl caliber player. Casey’s annual value has set as a solid DE2 as he doesn’t have a high ceiling as a 3-4 DE. He’s still more than viable, however, as he’s an elite real-life player.
LB: Wesley Woodyard 17 PPG, Vince Williams 17 PPG, Benardrick McKinney 15 PPG, Von Miller 14 PPG
Wesley Woodyard had himself a career year in 2017, with over 120 tackles and 4 sacks. The Titan team captain has struggled for fantasy viability in the past as he’s struggled as a run defender and not always been placed in an opportunity to succeed. That won’t be the case this year, as he’s expected to lead the Titans to an AFC South title. Woodyard will never leave the field, however, it’s a near lock his tackle numbers decrease with Rashaan Evans in town.
With Ryan Shazier sadly out of the picture, Williams will have to step up as the leader of Pittsburgh’s linebacking corps. Williams has annually been a steady, back-end starter for IDP GM’s, but we should expect a progression in tackle opportunities with Shazier out of the picture. With a training camp battle ensuing next to him between Bostic and Matakavich, Williams is going to slide into the Shazier role, which saw him annually average 19 PPG. That won’t be Williams’ but 17 PPG will be a 2 PPG increase from his 2017 campaign.
Benardrick McKinney had one of his worst campaigns in 2017 statistically, but he still rarely left the field. Like Rashaan Evans in Tennessee, McKinney is a stud run defender and because of his coverage liability generally rushes the passer. That gives McKinney a bit of a boom or bust factor. McKinney will stay as a solid back-end starter for the foreseeable future after signing a contract extension this offseason. I’m curious to see how McKinney and Cunningham play together as Houston hasn’t provided two fantasy viable linebackers in years.
Von Miller is the stud 3-4 OLB pass rusher in the NFL. That, unfortunately, doesn’t equate to an elite player for us as he’s the epitome of a boom or bust player. Miller still scores well over 200 points most years. Miller annually posts double-digit sacks, but can’t provide enough sacks to warrant a weekly start over the standard high floor 4-3 MLB or WLB. Nothing has changed for Miller except an upgrade across from him in Bradley Chubb.
CB: Trae Waynes 11 PPG, Byron Maxwell 11 PPG
Trae Waynes is in a prime position opposite of Xavier Rhodes to be targeted heavily. The former 1st round pick out of Michigan State struggled early in his career, but has turned into a solid starter for the Vikings. The 2018 campaign could be his best and he should be a solid top 32 option.
Byron Maxwell has been all over the place but is now back in Seattle where he first made a name for himself. The Legion of Boom is pretty much donezo, with Chancellor and Sherman onto greener pastures, but this is giving Maxwell an opportunity to start. Maxwell will be a starter opposite of Shaq Griffin, who is expected to be their new Sherman. Maxwell has annually been one of the most targeted corners in the league and that shouldn’t change in 2018.
S: Jordan Poyer 17 PPG, Tony Jefferson 13 PPG
Jordan Poyer had a huge coming out party as the strong safety for the Bills and at his 19 PPG clip exceeded any sort of expectation put upon him before the season. That will be hard to duplicate, but Poyer’s role isn’t going to be scaled back in any way. Poyer has one of the safest floors heading into 2018 and should continue to be a tackle monster with an inexperienced linebacking corps ahead of him.
Tony Jefferson used to be one of the elite IDP safeties when he was the SS in Arizona, but his move to Baltimore saw him moved around their defense, placing him farther off the line of scrimmage. With fewer tackles opportunities presented to Jefferson, the regression could be seen from a mile away before the season, and Jefferson was hardly a startable option. There is a decent chance Jefferson increased his tackle numbers in 2018 and that is placed in the projection. He should be a solid S2.
Off: San Francisco 49ers 11 PPG
2018 PPG: 311 w/ Ingram 304 w/o Ingram
Outlook: Almost every year Travis builds a competent team that is just a player or two away from serious contention. With Mark finally building a competent team, Travis is the third best team in an improving division. Travis should be squarely in wild-card contention once again. I’m curious to see what adjustments we see Travis do in-season, with an extremely quiet offseason.
W-L: 8-8
