We’re about to complete our second week of the league’s third season. I’m sure many GMs look at their current record and wonder how many have made it to the playoffs. Do you have good odds? Are you screwed? Should you start a week 3 fire sale? Or do you keep on the season’s plan and hope things improve? Let’s take a quick look at how teams have done in the past…

0-4 start after two weeks: 1/5 (20%)

Five teams have been here before. Of those five teams, only one has reached a positive record at the end of the year. That same team also made the playoffs as the #6 seed. That team – the New Orleans Saints. In 2016, the Saints finished with a 9-7 record and fell 10.82 points shy of being the IFL Champion.

1-3 start after two weeks: 3/17 (17.85%)

17 teams have started the season 1-3 after the first two weeks. Of those 17 teams, only three teams made the playoffs.

• In 2016, GB (11-5, #3 seed) reached the playoffs
• In 2017, HOU (11-5, #2 seed) and DAL (9-7, #4 seed) reached the playoffs.

2-2 start after two weeks: 8/21 (38.10%)

21 teams have started the season 2-2. Of those teams, eight teams reached the playoffs.

• In 2016, CLE (8-8, #6 seed), TEN (14-2, #1 seed, IFL Champion), DAL (13-3, #2 seed), and SEA (9-7, #4 seed) reached the playoffs.
• In 2017, MIA (10-6, #6 seed), CHI (11-5, #3 seed), GB (11-5, #5 seed), and LAR (10-6, #6 seed) reached the playoffs.

3-1 start after two weeks: 9/15 (60%)

15 teams started the season 3-1. Of those teams, nine reached the playoffs. Who were the teams who didn’t make it? MIN (2016), NYG (2016), SF (2016), PIT (2017), NYJ (2017), and WAS (2017).

• In 2016, PIT (8-8, #4 seed), DEN (8-8, #3 seed), MIA (12-4, #2 seed), TB (11-5, #5 seed), and CAR (13-3, #1 seed) reached the playoffs.
• In 2017, NE (10-6, #3 seed), IND (11-5, #5 seed, IFL Champion), and TB (13-3, #1 seed) reached the playoffs.

4-0 start after two weeks: 4/6 (66.67%)

Six teams started the season 4-0. Of those teams, four reached the playoffs. The two teams that didn’t reach the playoffs were the Jaguars (2016) and Vikings (2017).

• In 2016, BUF reached the playoffs. BUF finished with a 11-5 record and entered the playoffs as the #5 seed.
• In 2017, BAL (15-1, #1 seed), DEN (10-6, #4 seed), and SEA (13-3, #2 seed) reached the playoffs.

 

Teams have plenty of options to finish out the season… You can take notes from New England and sell the farm after two weeks and stack up draft picks. You can tell everyone you’re preparing for the 2019 season like the Steelers, yet continue to win in the AFC North. You can alternate each season with one successful and one completely blown up roster like Carolina.

The past has shown no matter where you end up after two weeks, it’s still possible to reach the playoffs….