Coach: Pete Carroll 6 PPG
QB: Cam Newton 30 PPG
Cam Newton is one of my favorite quarterbacks in the NFL and is the type of player I wish was leading the Buccaneers. He’s a fantastic team guy and genuinely cares about connecting with the fans of Carolina. One of the most special things in the NFL is when any offensive player on Carolina scores a touchdown. They find a kid in the stands wearing a Panthers’ jersey and give them the ball. Cam may have a bad rep for his poor attitude with the media after losses, but I appreciate someone who is himself. Newton’s dual threat ability keeps him in the conversation as a top 3 option at the position and with reports of his deep ball returning, he may be ready to return to elite status. The fate of the Panthers fall on his shoulder, so hopefully he can keep it 100%.
RB/WR/TE: James Connor 26 PPG, Derrick Henry 22 PPG, Tyler Boyd 16 PPG, Kenyan Drake 15 PPG, Curtis Samuel 13 PPG 6th men: Adrian Peterson 14 PPG, N’Keal Harry 12 PPG, Randall Cobb 12 PPG, Jerrick McKinnon 11 PPG, Quincy Enunwa 10 PPG, Tre’Quan Smith 9 PPG
James Conner replaced Le’Veon Bell and didn’t miss a beat. He mimicked Bell in such an identical way, he even missed a few games to end the 2018 season. Now an established running back in the league, Conner is a safe bet to continue his workhorse ways, although there are reports surfacing that Samuels and Snell will spell Conner. The Steelers haven’t has a timeshare in recent memory, but I expect at least a small regression from his 2018 production.
Derrick Henry is poised to go off this season as the Titans’ offense is going to flow through him. The Titans’ fortunes changed once they kept handing off to the former Heisman winner last season and they barely missed the playoffs. Henry’s training camp is marred by injury, so there is a bit of uncertainty with his usage especially in the early going of his return. Keep in mind Henry was already averaging 19 PPG in 2018 with mad inconsistency in the early going. Between weeks 14-16, he dropped a 60, 48 and 27. The single digit results will be few and far between if they keep giving him 15+ carries a game. A true power runner, Henry can be the type of guy Craig and Will builds their teams around. He just needs the usage.
Tyler Boyd entered the NFL as the most prolific receiver from Pittsburgh since Larry Fitzgerald. His first two seasons in the NFL were wastes, but he did the stereotypical 3rd year leap in a below average offense. Boyd appears to have turned a corner in his career and may eventually materialize as their #1 receiving option as soon as this year. With AJ Green missing the first few weeks of the season, the receiving game will flow through Boyd. He’s a rock solid 3rd or 4th starter in our league with upside for more if Zac Taylor can progress the offense.
Kenyan Drake is a poor man’s Kamara in a much worse situation. He doesn’t profile as a 300 carry guy and has superb receiving chops. Drake’s receptions are what drives his floor up and those aren’t going away even if Kalen Ballage eats into his carries. The upside Drake possesses is top 16 worthy if he could of held off Ballage, but that doesn’t appear to be the case. Miami appears to be ready to adopt a timeshare situation, similar to New England.
Curtis Samuel’s first two years in the league haven’t amounted to much, although much of that can be attributed to injuries. Many analysts are pointing to a breakout season, but I’m unsure if their #4 receiving option will be anything more than a fringe starter. If Cam and Samuel find chemistry beyond what they had last season, he could provide exactly what Will would want from his back-end starter with a high floor from receptions.
PK: Ka’imi Fairbairn 9 PPG
PN: Brett Kern 11 PPG
DT: DeForest Buckner 18 PPG
Is DeForest Buckner a Defensive Player of the Year Candidate? Last year, Buckner post 12 sacks from the interior with over 60 tackles, destroying the rest of his competition in scoring. After a talent injection across San Fran’s defensive line, attention may not be solely focused on the Oregon product. Bucker is a huge advantage with his cheap salary and stats from a position that has 4 or so options that average 15 PPG. 47 points in week 15 during an AFC/NFC championship game? Boner alert…
DE: Calais Campbell 16 PPG, Nick Bosa 12 PPG
Calais Campbell’s career has been nothing short of incredible. Every year since 2008, he’s posted over 5 sacks, with a career high coming two years ago after joining Sacksonville. His 2019 prospects don’t point to anything changing and should be able to post another couple of top 10 defensive end seasons. He may never top double digit sacks again, but 7-8 with a high tackle floor and a small injury history makes him an extremely safe player to invest in.
Nick Bosa is following in his brother’s footsteps with a training camp injury his rookie year. Will Nick Bosa really be as productive as his brother Joey? I can’t bet on it with rookie defensive ends often struggling their rookie season. Even at 12 PPG, that is better than 98% of rookie DE performances. Robert Saleh coaches a very similar defense to the Chargers and Nick is playing the same strong-side defensive end position as is his brother. Hopefully, Nick can stay healthy as he’s currently dealing with a significant high ankle sprain.
LB: Luke Kuechly 20 PPG, Cory Littleton 18 PPG, Leighton Vander Esch 18 PPG, Von Miller 15 PPG
After another healthy season, it’s safe to say that Kuechly is not injury prone. There were some serious concerns a couple years ago that he may pull a Chris Borland and leave the NFL after numerous concussions. Head injuries may always be a concern, but Luke is a top 2 option at the position, right there with Bobby Wagner. There is no question Luke is going to post elite numbers again, right around the 300 mark.
I’m going to be real with y’all… I would have never in a million years expected Littleton to go from an UDFA to a #2 linebacker in our scoring system. To make matters even less likely, I’ve never seen a backer post elite numbers in a Wade Phillips defense, but gotta leave some room to be surprised by players, I guess. I definitely envision a small regression and is factored into his projection. He’s a fantastic story and a pillar for Matt to build his team around.
LVE was so impressive his rookie year, showcasing his elite athleticism into robust tackle stats. While his tackle efficiency is likely to decrease, the full-time MIKE backer is one of the best options to build around at the position. Now a top 10 option, look for LVE to continue to lead the Cowboys’ defense in counting stats for the foreseeable future.
I’ve never been a big fan of starting 3-4 OLB due to high variance in their scoring, but I’ve come around to starting just one as a back-end starter for their potential blow-up games. Obviously, Von is near the top of the OLB list, he’s prone for his share of blow-up games. An area of concern is his tackle numbers, which makes Von very reliant on sack numbers, which were very high at 14.5 in 2018. If those start to dip, Von could be looking at a regression. I’ve cooked a tiny decline into his 15 PPG projection for this season heading into his age 30 season.
CB: Byron Jones 10 PPG, Brian Poole 10 PPG
Byron Jones is one of the better corners in the NFL and racks in his points by a remarkable 14 pass deflections. That number will certainly decrease, but he still should put up a decent amount of tackles in a full time role.
Not a fan of Brian Poole, as he’s a below-average, part-time corner. I don’t envision him being more than a bye-week fill-in type for his owners. His role is likely safe, but there are 10,000 better options out on the wire. Brad will likely add corners as we get deeper into camp.
S: Adrian Phillips 14 PPG, Justin Simmons 12 PPG
While Nate lost the most valuable safety in our league, Will gained a top 16 option. Phillips has been an average starter when brought in to replace whatever Charger has gone down. That Charger is now Derwin James and his role is ripe for production. While he’s not going to wow with top 3 production with 300 point potential, Phillips in line for ample opportunity.
A scheme change for Justin Simmons is likely to change his production. Kareem Jackson is looking like the strong safety in Denver, relegating Simmons to free safety, which is where he played in college. Simmons’ range is what he was known for coming into the NFL, so we could see his real life value increase. As for IFL value, he’s unlikely to replicate last year’s numbers, but still should be a serviceable option.
Off: Philadelphia Eagles 11 PPG
PPG: 322
W-L: 10-6
Sat here this time last year, I predicted Will to go 4-12 and won’t be making that mistake again. Will’s build himself a solid team with star power on both sides of the ball. While guys like Connor, Henry, LVE, and Kuechly are the type of players to build around, Will hasn’t built teams with adequate depth. This could be the best team Will’s ever had, but he will have his hands full with Andy and Jai’s team vastly improved. It’s going to be an interesting year in the NFC West, but the road still runs through Seattle.