Coach: Doug Pederson 5 PPG
QB: Matthew Stafford 28 PPG
Talking straight to the Stafford owner, you know how his 2019 went. You know he was the 3rd ranked QB through week 9. All that was standing between Stafford and MVP votes were a couple of pesky fractures in his back. So, Stafford is going to repeat, right? Last year’s numbers were on pace to match his 2011 career-highs with over 5,000 passing yards and 38 touchdowns. To expect him to repeat may be a stretch, but he’ll likely hover around the top 10.
RB/WR/TE: Clyde Edwards-Helaire 25 PPG, Miles Sanders 25 PPG, David Montgomery 19 PPG, Cooper Kupp 18 PPG, Calvin Ridley 17 PPG 6th men: Hayden Hurst 16 PPG, Preston Williams 14 PPG, Noah Fant 13 PPG, TJ Hockenson 13 PPG, Blake Jarwin 13 PPG
The more I dove into Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s background, the most I grew excited to exclaim this hooker has #1 RB/WR/TE upside written all over him. His 1,414 rushing yards on 215 carries combined with 453 receiving yards on 55 receptions is a Dalvin Cook-like stat line. With the dual-threat skill set not in question, there’s nothing to worry about from an opportunity standpoint and has been lauded by head coach Andy Reid for his pass protection. Last year’s starter Damien Williams opted out before the COVID deadline, taking away the biggest threat to touches. The biggest threat to a monster CEH season is actually the Chiefs’ lack of rushing touches, as their high flying offense ranked 27th in rushing attempts, making his receiving and pass blocking effectiveness even more critical. So is CEH worth of a top 10 RB/WR/TE projection? Rookies are hard to project, but signs point to him being as close to a slam dunk as anyone. At 25 PPG, he’s already a fringe top 10 option from day one, with upside to hit close to 30 PPG if the Chiefs ever increase their commitment to the run.
Owners of Miles Sanders must have been ecstatic with his rookie season, despite a wildly inconsistent carry share from week to week. In a true rookie year fashion, Sanders started slow out of the gate opportunity wise, not eclipsing 13 carries until week 13. The last four weeks saw Sanders go buck wild, and was a top 5 RB/WR/TE the rest of the way. Sanders is a two-way player, with 63 targets, 50 receptions, 509 yards and three touchdowns. The fumbles, which were a major concern coming into the NFL evaporated with just one fumble lost. Now that Sanders has proven himself as a reliable rushing option, Doug Peterson prioritized talking up Sanders as the main guy and Duce Staley wasn’t shy about the notion either. Here’s the Eagles assistant head coach/running backs on Sanders, “I’m excited about Miles. I’m excited about him handling the full load. I don’t see Miles as a guy that you have to monitor his touches,” Staley said (via the Eagles website). “I think you put him in, and you let him go.” One thing I’ve learned about when head coaches speak about how a player will be utilized, you listen. (Chris Carson is an iconic example of this.) Sanders is ready to ascend into a top 10 RB/WR/TE and be the center of the Eagles offensive attack.
David Montgomery’s rookie year was chock full of opportunity as a rusher, and concluded as a mixed bag. His attempts per broken tackles sit in the top 10 in the NFL (which is what he was widely known for in college), but he was almost league-worst at generating yards after contact with 1.6 yards. If this doesn’t improve, he will not have a prolonged career with annual 200+ rush attempts. The Bears’ offense needs to revolve around their run game to succeed, a proposition that will be tough if the Bears can’t improve their run blocking for the 2nd year back, with just 2.0 yards before contact. This season, there’s not much standing in Monty’s way of eclipsing his totals from last year by just consistency of volume alone. His rushing attempts were all over the place, especially early on in the season, which should stabilize in his second year. With Cohen involved, Monty will never be an elite asset, but he is firmly in the Melvin Gordon tier of decent opportunity.
This rando white dude from Eastern Washington was a fan favorite in the draft a couple years ago and he happened to begin his career with one of the most prolific offenses in NFL history. Kupp was well on his way to a 1,000 yard campaign before tearing his ACL two years ago and it perhaps spoiled an otherwise dominant Super Bowl run for the pass happy Rams. Onto 2019, through weeks 1-8 (the first 11 games of the IFL season) Kupp became an elite asset, averaging 23 PPG and was the 3rd ranked WR in PPG. After his bye however, Kupp dropped to a barely startable 12.8 PPG, including one concerning week 10 disappearing act with zero receptions! (On 4 targets) The target drop after the week 9 bye was the issue, dropping below six or less targets in every game but one versus never dropping below six targets per game in the first half of the season. Through week 13-16, he scored in each game and caught every target thrown his way, doing everything he could to not completely drop off the fantasy map. It’s possible Cooper’s prominence on the offense has diminished and he won’t be utilized as much moving forward. With Brandin Cooks out of town, you would think Kupp would return to form, but there’s uncertainty with talk of the Rams moving to a more run heavy, 12 personnel offense. (Like what you see up in San Francisco) The Rams are the most play action heavy team in the NFL and they could certainly move into a direction that only includes one startable receiver in Robert Woods. None of this is going to happen though. Kupp is too damn talented to not be at least a 1B to Wodds’ 1A. At an 18 PPG projection, this is with the targets of the 1st half of last season not the second. If he keeps his red-zone threat level up, Kupp could bounceback into a monster campaign, but it comes with much more risk than advertised.
The goal of drafting Calvin Ridley was to provide the Falcons offense an adequate replacement for stud muffin Roddy White and he’s certainly accomplished that goal. Ridley’s strength lies within his savvy route running and has proven to be a serious threat in the endzone with 17 total touchdowns in two years. If he plays a full season’s worth of games, he’s pretty much a lock to finish with 1,000 yards, but it’s possible some TD regression could be in his future. Replicating the 17 PPG mark from last season is a safe assumption, with his upside capped by the best receiver in the NFL in Julio Jones.
PK: Brandon McManus 8 PPG
PN: Cam Johnston 10 PPG
DT: Aaron Donald 17 PPG
25 less pressures and 8.5 less sacks were the cause for regression in Donald’s numbers. At a measly 250 points, many Donald GMs were likely asking themselves what gives. The 20.5 sack season was one of the best ever and it’s a reminder that Donald is still by far the #1 DT to own. Donald is not just the best DT, but one of the biggest difference-makers in the sport, being a constant elite presence game after game. His pass rush opportunity was much higher with the high flying 2018 Rams’ offense putting him in a position to succeed. We may never see a 20 sack season from him again, but he’s not going to stop dropping double-digit sack seasons anytime soon.
DE: Yannick Ngakoue 16 PPG, Justin Houston 15 PPG
After almost a decade of waiting to utilize Justin Houston as a DE, IDP lovers finally got their wish after Houston moved into a 4-3 scheme in Indianapolis. Houston, who has been one of the best pass rushers since 2011, didn’t disappoint in his new uniform, accumulating his usual production of around 10 sacks a year. Houston’s 60 pressures were the third most of his career and the most since his almost record-setting 22 sack total of 2014. With Indy’s defensive line expected to improve after trading for Pro-Bowl defensive tackle DeForest Buckner, no one should expect Houston to regress. He’s locked in as a DE1 for 2020.
Tumultuous would be kind in describing Yannick Ngakoue’s relationship with the Jacksonville Jaguars. He’s publically sparred with his own team’s co-owner Tony Khan, tweeting at him to “Just trade me. I don’t need the speech.” Ngakoue has also threatened and is poised to sit out the entire season if he’s not dealt, something that many players on the franchise tag have done, but few follow through. Yannick recently fired his agent, likely because they did a poor job on campaigning for a change of scenery with another team. This is a very fluid situation, with a possible position change on the horizon if he lands in a 3-4 scheme. Ngakoue annually posts 10 sacks a year and is a top 16 option at DE. His floor is a bit capped due to poor run defense, but there are few in the NFL with his pass-rushing ability.
*UPDATE* Yannick contacted Make a Wish after his dying decree with Jacksonville was to get the F8ck out and join a playoff team. Welcome to Minnesota. The Jags received a 2nd and 5th round picks, which is larger compensation they would of received in a 3rd round compensatory pick than if he left in free agency next year. Even better for IFL GMs, he joins a 4-3 squad and will keep his DE designation. Playing opposite of arguably the best defensive end in the NFL, this is a best case scenario type trade. Yannick is a locked-in top 10 DE, so long as he keeps up his career high tackle numbers from a year ago.
LB: Demario Davis 19 PPG, Avery Williamson 18 PPG, Khalil Mack 17 PPG, Matt Milano 16 PPG
You may hate the Saints cunty fan base, revel in the annual Saints postseason meltdown but it’s hard to hate Demario Davis and his trademark Dragon Ball Z Kamehameha sack celebration. Davis registered an All-Pro 2019 season and ranked as a lovely top 12 option at backer for our fantasy purposes. Annually exceeding 100 total tackles and sprinkling in 4-5 sacks every year profiles Davis as perhaps the Saints’ best defensive player. Also an elite coverage backer in 2019, as evidenced by his 85.8 coverage grade per PFF, there was nothing Davis wasn’t doing to impact the game last year. Becoming more refined with age, Demario should be incinerating a few more QBs in 2020.
From potential release candidate to now the likely playcaller of the Jets’ defense, Avery Williamson’s 2020 offseason has been a wild ride. Coming off a pre-season ACL tear, Williamson reports his knee is now pain-free and was recently activated from the PUP list. It may feel like ancient history, but Williamson was coming off a top 10 linebacker season, with an enormous 121 total tackle total, while sprinkling in a variety of big plays to boot. Similar to his 2018 season, Avery is all alone in a talent deficient Jets defense that will ask him to do all he can handle. It should surprise no one that his 18 PPG projection is right in line with his last healthy season’s totals and if he can quickly shake off the rust, his upside may be even higher without tackle monster Jamal Adams taking away opportunities.
Khalil Mack’s value just isn’t the same as a linebacker. It’s a damn shame the Raiders decided to move on from the All-Pro talent, for running back Josh Jacobs, corner Damon Arnette and wide receiver Bryan Edwards. Mack’s 2018 season showcased why he was viewed as a top 3 edge rusher. His 12.5 sacks despite two and a half games. Mack’s 2019 was the 2nd worst of his career in the pressures department, just posting a measly 70. That’s still stellar, but didn’t translate into top 32 production at linebacker. Heading into 2020, Mack will look to connect on a few more sacks, while continuing to be a game wrecker with his trademark forced fumbles.
Matt Milano is just one of those players that blend into the background as a solid, if unspectacular talent. He’s a perfect fit for a linebacker 3/4 on a contending team. Milano plays every snap when healthy and there’s nothing to suggest he won’t do the same in 2020. Expect the same 16 PPG outcome for the former 5th round pick. For those old enough, remember when he was drafted behind Tanner Vallejo? Good times.
CB: Joe Haden 12 PPG, James Bradberry 11 PPG
Joe Haden keeps chugging along as a CB1 for AFC North teams and has reincarnated his career after a few down years in Cleveland. The dude has shown to be a high floor tackle corner and posts a good amount of pass deflections. While the 5 INTs from last year will be tough to replicate, the tackles and PDs will not be. Fire him up as one of the safer CB1s out there.
James Bradberry is sorely needed after 2019 1st round pick DeAndre Baker’s future is murky at best. Bradberry’s run as Carolina’s #1 corner was a mixed bag, but he never lost the starting job from his time as a rookie corner up until the Panthers elected to have him move on in free agency. Locked into a full-time job, he’s one of many corners that profile in the 11 PPG range and is a very safe investment.
S: John Johnson 18 PPG, Harrison Smith 16 PPG
Do you feel John Johnson has a cool name or is it just unfortunate? Anyway, there’s no question Johnson is a top 5 safety heading into 2020 after two consecutive top 5 finishes in terms of PPG. Johnson’s 2019 season was cut short after a shoulder injury week 6, but was well on his way to another dominant campaign. While his name may unusual, at just 26, he’s a locked-in elite option for the foreseeable future.
Harrison Smith has simply been one of the best players in the NFL since entering the league in 2012. Always around the ball, he’s a specialist at impacting the game in all facets and is particularly well known for his well-timed blitzes off the edge. Smith excelled last season, having arguably his 2nd best year as a pro statistically and naturally was a Pro Bowl selection. (He was snubbed from being an All-Pro despite being selected the previous two years) Nothing has changed with Smith’s situation so you can expect another top 5 season.
Off: Atlanta Falcons 12 PPG
PPG: 342
W-L: 12-4
It’s taken Brian a minute to return his squad to a championship contender, but there’s no doubt he’s not just there, but ready for a multi-year run at a ring. Across the roster, there’s star talent and depth that few, if any other GMs can tout. A young RB group leads his squad, including two of the most valuable assets in the league in Sanders and CEH. He also owns arguably the best young tight end group in the IFL in Fant, Hockenson, Hurst and Jarwin. Across his defense, every position is 1-3 players deep past their starters, including stars in Aaron Donald, Demario Davis and Harrison Smith. He’ll likely start the year as the NFC favorite to represent us in the Super Bowl.
2016 Projected Record: 13-3, Actual Record: 13-3
2017 Projected Record: 11-5, Actual Record: 9-7
2018 Projected Record: 11-5, Actual Record: 14-2
2019 Projected Record: 9-7, Actual Record: 6-10
