Coach: Andy Reid 7 PPG
QB: Dak Prescott 30 PPG
I’ve heard a lot of banter on Houston sports radio on whether or not Dak Prescott is a viable starting quarterback. Depending on who you talk to, you’ll receive very different stories on his future prospects. Some would say he’s wildly inaccurate, especially when he plays a quality defense and similar to Kirk Cousins, he doesn’t have that ‘It’ factor to win big games. Others, however, laud his leadership abilities and point to his quality advanced passing stats as the rationale that Prescott is not just capable of leading the Cowboys, but is one of the best QBs in the NFL. Prescott was one of the most accurate QBs last season, ranking 7th in quality throws percentage at 77.5% and ranked 6th best in ‘bad’ percentage throws at 14.8%. Last year’s metrics actually point to poor receiver play than poor QB play, with Prescott ranking in the top 5 of intended air yards per pass attempt (Air yards is average depth per attempt, btw) and ranked 3rd in completed pass air yards, but ranked 25th in yards after completion. With all of this being said, the Dak haters absolutely have a bone to pick with Prescott who disappeared in a make-or-break 5-week stretch between weeks 11-16 that defined their season. Most detractors would point to the brutal 17-9 Eagles loss that effectively eliminated them after Dak failed to throw any TDs and a measly 265 yards. The jury is still out on Prescott and I believe the Cowboys front office is doing the right thing making him play on the franchise tag, contrary to many ‘experts.’ The Cowboys also added Superstar in the making CeeDee Lamb to bolster those poor receiver numbers and I fully expect the upgraded receiving talent to help. Dak’s 2020 success rides on quality wins this season though. He must take a step forward in that department or else he could be looking at signing with another, less quality team come March.
RB/WR/TE: Dalvin Cook 29 PPG, Mark Andrews 22 PPG, Julio Jones 21 PPG, Zach Ertz 20 PPG, Darren Waller 20 PPG 6th men: Allen Robinson 18 PPG, Kareem Hunt 14 PPG
The Cook Master finally had the type of season his believers knew was in him. After showcasing elite rushing ability in his first two years when he wasn’t struggling with injuries, Dalvin rushed his way into the top 10 in every major rushing category, becoming the focal point of the Vikings offense. With a complete, 3-down skill set there are only a few running backs in the NFL that can tout his kind of upside. Heading into training camp, Cook threatened to hold out after sitting out team workouts in June, but reported on-time and is working to get a deal done before the start of the regular season. After losing star receiver Stefon Diggs to trade, it’s pivotal the Vikings keep him in town. Cook’s 2020 is shaping up to be another elite season, with no one threatening to chip at his bell-cow workload.
Jackson’s right-hand man, Mark Andrews ascended to one of fantasy football studs at the position. A top 5 finish despite landing on the injury report for weeks at a time in 2019, Andrews may be a top 2 asset at the position this time next year if he can play most of 2020 at 100%. Tethered to Jackson who loves his tight end only solidified Andrews as the strongest long-term prospect at the position sans George Kittle. With Hayden Hurst now in Atlanta, there is little to nothing in the way of him taking a step forward. He’s easily my third favorite tight end, in the tier with Kelce and Kittle and it would come as no surprise if he ends up as the #1 scorer at year’s end.
What else is there to say about Julio Jones? The man is an absolute unit of a man and the most dominant receiver I’ve ever watched. If you tuned into Super Bowl LI, it’s hard to come away with any other conclusion. He singlehandedly put the Falcons in a position to virtually guarantee a Super Bowl win with one of the best catches I’ve ever seen. He’s eclipsed over 1,000 yards in 7 of his nine seasons and from a target perspective, only Michael Thomas received more in 2019. If there’s anything to critique, it’s his annual lack of touchdowns, which has only hit 10 once, all the way back in 2012. Jones is getting older on the downside of his career at 31, so let’s enjoy the ride with a few more dominant years.
2019 was another excellent campaign for the top 3 tight end in Philadelphia. Zach Ertz proved to be Carson Wentz’s number one weapon and received an absurd 134 targets, clearing 2nd place on the team by 47 targets in Dallas Goedert. Ertz’s opportunity is only trumped by Kelce at tight end and both are on the Hall of Fame track. Ertz is exactly what you look for in a high floor asset, with his target share preventing a high frequency of bust weeks. Ertz plays at one of the most demanding positions in the NFL and has dealt with a couple of rib injuries, concussions, and a soft tissue hamstring strain. Sports injury predictor puts him at a 64% chance of injury, which ranks 13th at the position. At a robust 20 PPG, he’s a top 20 RB/WR/TE and continues to be a jewel for his owners.
Going into last season, no one except Darren Waller’s mother (and maybe Jon Gruden) would have predicted he would be 3rd in targets by tight ends. Waller’s story of substance abuse cut victim in Baltimore to Pro-Bowl tight end is what movies are made of and make for a perfect player to root for in the new football town of Las Vegas. Waller was Derek Carr’s only reliable target last year and a 1,000 yard season placed him at 22nd at RB/WR/TEs. I was planning on regressing Waller to 17 PPG with the targets surely to go down with newfound talents Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards in town, but Waller is in line for a sharp touchdown progression after just 3 last year. Another fringe top 20 finish is in the cards again with a ceiling to be the #1 tight end if Derek Carr can ever get his shit together.
PK: Wil Lutz 10 PPG
PN: Tress Way *12* PPG
DT: Kenny Clark 14 PPG
It is known Kenny Clark is one of the highest floor defensive tackles in the NFL, with only six DTs registering, more total tackles in 2019. What I’m about to tell you however is going to blow your mind! Kenny Clark’s total assisted tackles ranked top 3 among defensive lineman as a whole, which can be attributed to an assist friendly stat crew. Tackles and assists have no specific way of determining how to register a stop, so it’s up to the stat crews at each stadium to use their best judgment. Some crews, like up in Buffalo, will see their best defenders have high totals in solo tackles. (Tremaine Edmunds and Jordan Poyer) Crews in New York and Green Bay hand out assists like candy, which help out defensive tackles like Kenny Clark who is in a number of run plays and can record a solid 1.5 points per assist. With a scheme change behind him, Clark has showcased he’s scheme proof for production purposes, so he’s locked in as a top 5 option.
DE: Maxx Crosby 16 PPG, JJ Watt 16 PPG
Maxx Crosby is the most underappreciated player in the NFL. After having a monster rookie season that went completely unnoticed by the national media, Crosby was only one of five players since 2000 to record double digs sacks and four forced fumbles as a rookie. (Three of those were Freeny, Peppers and Suggs) When comparing his rookie season to two of the elite pass rushers in the NFL, his counting stats were on par Nick Bosa and Khalil Mack. Now Crosby’s hurries trailed miles behind Mack and Bosa (35 to 61 and 53) which may be a cause for concern for a regression, but with Crosby only getting starting snaps after week 5, it’s clear he has room for growth. If he’s a top 12 DE again, no one will be sleeping on this budding star.
JJ Watt will go down as one of the greatest football players of all time, both on and off the field. After Hurricane Harvey ravaged Houston, Watt went to work on rebuilding his city with philanthropic fundraising. In total, his foundation raised $37 million dollars, which helped rebuild 1,183 homes, created 971 childcare centers and after school programs which helped 108,000 children and distributed 239 million meals to victims of the hurricane. It goes down as the single largest fundraiser by an active sports player ever. On the field, JJ Watt’s best seasons are likely behind him, but he is still much more than just a charity case. Two years removed from a 16-sack season, there is a great chance Watt will at least hit double digit sacks. I’ll probably always project Watt as a top 10 DE option until he stops producing as one when he’s on the field. With three of the last four years being injury disasters, he needs another 16 game season to pad his resume for Canton.
LB: Jaylon Smith 19 PPG, Zach Cunningham 19 PPG, Shaq Thompson 17 PPG, TJ Watt 17 PPG
Jaylon Smith’s 2019 was certainly up and down and he plagued the 7-9 Cowboys. Jaylon was called out by announcers during games and local beat writers for inconsistent play, and even head coach Jason Garrett had some words after the Cowboy’s week 14 loss against Chicago. “Jaylon was certainly active in the game,” coach Jason Garrett said Friday. “He was around the ball a lot. He did some good things, both as a run defender and as a pass defender. But he was part of the whole defensive effort, and I don’t know if you can look across the board and say anybody really stood out positively on defense when (the Bears moved) the ball as consistently as they did. There were some bright spots. There were some bright plays for different people and for Jaylon, but overall, the defensive effort wasn’t good enough.” I think that sums up Smith’s game nicely, flashy and around the ball, but lacking in execution at times. Smith needs to improve in coverage if he’s to become an elite NFL backer. In terms of fantasy, he’s one of the top assets for our league and a top 10 option for 2020.
Zach Cunningham’s hasn’t received prestige beyond a Pro-Bowl nod last year, but he led the AFC in tackles last year. He was an absolute tackle hog, being exactly what the Texans expected him to be as a new-age linebacker with elite speed for the position. 143 total tackles did not come with many bonus points, however, as he had a measly two fumble recoveries, two sacks and a pair of pass deflections. Moving forward, Cunningham should be focusing on other aspects than making a tackle to take his game to the next level. With an extremely high floor already intact, the 25-year-old is ready to break into the consistently elite at the position. He’s firmly in my top 10 linebackers, with overall #1 upside if he can start impacting games in a multitude of ways.
With the stunning early retirement of Luke Kuechly, Shaq Thompson is expected to step up and be the tackle leader for the revamped Panthers defense. Their defense was a train wreck last year, ranking 31st in points allowed, total yards against, and 32nd in rushing touchdowns and yards per carry. With Carolina’s entire draft class going to the defensive side of the ball, the expectation is it’ll drastically improve in all areas. Thompson is one of the familiar faces returning and is expected to lead the team in tackles. At 17 PPG, he comes with a high floor and 2020 is potentially a career year.
TJ Watt went supernova last year, producing over 80 total pressures and 14.5 sacks. Ruthless across every facet of the game, TJ deserved a Defensive Player of the Year nod. In addition to the impressive sack number, he feasted with eight forced fumbles and two interceptions as an outside linebacker. To expect the younger Watt brother to hit the forced fumble and interception mark again is a bit aggressive, but Watt is going to be a double-digit sack artist for the foreseeable future. He’s the most valuable pass-rushing linebacker in our league and a top 16 play.
CB: Kyle Fuller 13 PPG, Donte Jackson 11 PPG
Fuller has been one of the most reliable corners across the last few seasons. He’s one of the few corners I would spend any sort of capital. The dude’s unusually high tackle numbers keep him near the top of the list annually, and he’s good for 3-4 INTs a year. At a position where any sort of consistency is rare, Fuller bucks the trend.
Donte Jackson’s rough 2019 needs to be forgotten quickly if he has a future as a starter in Carolina. Jackson will be tasked with leading a young cornerback group that is arguably the worst position group on the roster. Jackson’s aggressive approach to playing helps with the counting stats and he will no doubt be targeted heavily in 2020. He’s a solid top 32 option at corner with upside of finishing in the top 10.
S: Keanu Neal 15 PPG, Josh Jones 13 PPG
We all know about Keanu Neal’s elite production when he’s healthy, but a torn ACL and Achilles have derailed a once-promising career. A surprise 1st round pick 5 years ago, Neal totaled over 100 tackles his first two years in the league. One of the impact players on the Falcons defense, Neal’s presence is needed for the Falcons to return to at least a league average unit. Opportunity is absolutely there for a return to S1 numbers, but recent reports state that he’s still dealing with limitations. It’s a situation to monitor closely.
Josh Jones has dealt with a roller coaster ride of a career, but opportunity is knocking in Jacksonville. Slotted to replace Ronnie Harrison as the strong safety in Jacksonville, Jones is a sneaky bet for top 20 numbers. Claimed off waivers last year, Jones hasn’t been an asset in IDP leagues, sans for a quick month in Green Bay a couple years back. It’ll be interesting to see if he can improve his poor play, but for the tanking Jags, I doubt they’ll care. On opportunity alone, he has a good chance to replicate Harrison’s 13 PPG from 2019.
Off: Kansas City Chiefs 15 PPG
PPG: 356
W-L: 13-3
It’s a perfect storm for Nils in 2020 and I’m putting the Luke Monster guarantee seal of approval that he will take the NFC South this year. From top to bottom, Nils boasts one of the most complete team in the IFL, with elite players across all positions. With a weak schedule and depth for days, there’s little that can derail a successful season for the Panthers. One item to watch is potential flexibility issues if injuries strike with a lack of draft picks, but Nils has never been one to lack creativity when trading. At 13-3, Nils is back near the top of the conference and has an excellent chance to return to the Super Bowl that he’s been craving since the league’s inception.
2016 Projected Record: 12-4, Actual Record: 13-3
2017 Projected Record: 10-6, Actual Record: 2-14
2018 Projected Record: 5-11, Actual Record: 8-8
2019 Projected Record: 10-6, Actual Record: 9-7
