Coach: Bruce Arians 7 PPG
QB: Kyler Murray 33 PPG
It was a breakout season for Kyler Murray, who largely was in the MVP conversation for the first half of the year. The Cardinals offense was exactly what you’d think it would be under Kliff Kingsbury, high flying and very explosive in almost all facets. Murray’s fantasy value took a major step forward as a passer across all areas and finished in the top half of the league in completions, completion percentage, passing yards, and touchdowns. An above-average passer combined with elite rushing upside is going to get a QB into the 30 PPG tier every time. Murray threw in 819 rushing yards, ranking 17th in the NFL in that category, ranking ahead of rushers JK Dobbins, Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Antonio Gibson. What spearheaded his 36 PPG 2020 however was his 11 total touchdowns on the ground. As we head into 2021, Murray and Kingsbury point to Murray becoming a more efficient passer and using his legs more as a luxury. Expecting his rushing numbers to take a step back would be a safe bet, as Murray looks to stay healthy for a playoff run. That’ll push him down the rankings a bit, but Murray is still locked and loaded as an elite QB1 for 2021.
RB/WR/TE: Melvin Gordon 18 PPG, Logan Thomas 16 PPG, James Conner 15 PPG, David Johnson 15 PPG, Will Fuller 15 PPG 6th men: JuJu Smith-Schuster 14 PPG, Ronald Jones 13 PPG, Nelson Agholor 13 PPG, Tyler Boyd 13 PPG, , AJ Green 12 PPG, Breshad Perriman 12 PPG
It’s been a decorated career for the 28-year-old 1st round pick out of Wisconsin who has been a consistent fantasy producer since his inaugural 2015 campaign. An all-purpose back perfect for PPR leagues, Gordon has provided annual production as a RB1-RB2 in our format. Last year as the main back in Denver posted 215 carries, 986 yards, 9 TDs and an undervalued 32 receptions, 158 yards and a score. Here’s the tea with Gordon, he’s coming back for one more swan song with Denver as the main starter. It’s looking more like the second round pick they traded up for Javonte Williams will slide into Phillip Lindsay’s old role as the backup on early downs. Gordon has always been overlooked for his receiving prowess, which has largely propped up his PPG for years. This season will be no different as he’ll bring in anywhere from 30-50 receptions. With reports coming out that Gordon’s role is secure, he’s weekly starting material.
Logan Thomas was one of the waiver wire darlings of the 2020 season and provided a TE3 season on 110 targets. As a 30-year-old tight end, Thomas seems to have a fair amount of tread left on his tires, as we’ve seen players at the position age gracefully. Thomas is a former quarterback who took time to develop into the player he is today, but was given ample opportunity as the #2 receiver in the Football Team’s offense. Many are expecting a progression of the Football Team’s offense, but in terms of volume don’t expect a significant leap forward. Overall, Thomas should stay in line with what he did last year, but with the addition of Curtis Samuel and emerging rookie slot receiver Dyami Brown, there’s a bit of variance that could take place in Thomas’ outlook.
Naturally, with a running quarterback the Cardinals are near the top of the NFL in rushing attempts. 133 of their 479 rushes however came from Kyler Murray. That’s not to say Kenyan Drake’s role wasn’t chock full of opportunity, as he finished with 239 total carries and 955 rushing yards for a 21 PPG total. Now, expecting James Conner to shift right into Drake’s old role may be a bit aggressive, as the running back battle with Chase Edmunds is going to likely split the Cardinals’ carry share more evenly. Conner after all was let go by Pittsburgh after spearheading the league’s worst rushing attack. How the timeshare splits will probably be on a week to week basis, but I’d give Edmunds the leg up. Conner signed a 1-year 1.75 million contract, pointing to uncertain usage.
The entire Texans’ team sans a few players and the janitor was turned over and it’s back to square one for the organization. The running back room especially is full of new faces, all of which have held fantasy value at one time. Johnson leads the room that encompasses Rex Burkhead, Mark Ingram and Phillip Lindsay. Like many situations that face turnover to such a high degree in the coaching staff and personnel, it’s very hard to project what the usage will look like. Last year, David Johnson had little to no competition behind him. Duke Johnson has been nothing but hot garbage since entering the NFL and struggled even worse than David’s 3.7 yards per attempt. Now with quality veterans behind him, this is an open competition that’ll be decided in training camp. As it stands, I think this is a full-scale timeshare with usage changing week to week. Johnson posted an admirable 20 PPG last season, but missed 4 games and was inefficient with his opportunity. The Texans’ coaching staff will likely be looking for more from their touches.
Will Fuller was the guy in Houston last season, having a career year before he was popped for PEDs resulting in a six game suspension. Averaging a dominant 19 PPG, Fuller was on track for a top 10 receiving finish, but was glossed over because of the suspension and the other Texans’ woes that followed. Now in a crowded receiver room with an unproven quarterback, Fuller is primed for regression. He has to contend with a bevy of bodies in DeVante Parker, Jaylen Wadde and Mike Gesicki. Someone out of these four is going to lose and lose big. Expecting Fuller to produce at a 19 PPG rate again is silly, as it’s impossible to provide startable numbers to four receivers in the highest flying offense, let alone Miami. At 15 PPG, this conservative projection still ranks Fuller in a startable range, but he’s going to struggle with some boom/bust weeks. Fingers crossed he can stay off the trainer’s table, as he’s struggled with hamstring injuries in particular throughout his career.
PK: Ryan Succop 8 PPG
PN: Jack Fox 10 PPG
DT: Jonathan Allen 15 PPG
Fresh off a massive 4-year 72 million extension, Jonathan Allen is ready to feast! Last year was largely disappointing as a pass rusher notching only 2 sacks on 24 pressures. Allen’s prior two seasons saw 6 and 8 sacks respectively and on their stacked defensive line, expect Allen’s pass rushing totals to increase. The dude’s penchant for high tackle numbers gives him the potential upside to boost himself into a special category if he can combine it all into a special season. At 15 PPG, a modest sack increase is punched into the progression, but keep in mind Allen’s ceiling is among the highest at the position.
DE: Kerry Hyder 13 PPG, Yannick Ngakoue 12 PPG
Kerry Hyder was a waiver wire darling after Nick Bosa tore his ACL and surprisingly finished as a top 16 DE. His 8.5 sacks largely came out of nowhere, but he has done it before in his 2nd season with 8 sacks before disappearing for two seasons with Detroit and Dallas. Now with his fourth team, the Seahawks are providing him with a starting role to provide a stable pass rushing precense. Last season Hyder balled out with 32 total pressures as a top 20 pass rusher which bought him a 2-year 6.8 million contract. He may not be an elite option, but he’s serviceable. Another top 20 season is the projected outcome.
Why does no one seem to want to keep Yannick Ngakoue? Sheet, he’s been on 5 teams in like 20 minutes. Is it just because he’s just a pass rush specialist or is there something more behind the scenes? Either way, Yannick is poised to be a starter along Las Vegas’ defensive line, who seem like are moving on from the idea that 4th overall pick Clelin Ferrell is a starter. While in Baltimore Yannick was as part time player, playing anywhere from 58%-76% of the snaps most weeks. Now in Vegas, his usage is up for debate again, but if I had to guess it’ll be more of the same. At this point in his career, we know what Yannick is and that is not someone who will be asked to set the edge on running downs at under 250 lbs. His 7-10 sacks will keep him relevant in IDP leagues and a fringe top 32 option.
LB: Blake Martinez 20 PPG, Foyesade Oluokun 18 PPG, Anthony Walker 15 PPG
Who would have thought the Day 3 pick out of Stanford would turn into one of the most consistent tackling producers in the NFL? Blake Martinez provides tackles in spades for whatever defensive scheme he leads and has done so from pretty much day one. The dude just eats tackles, as he’s wrangled over 140 total stops since 2017. Early in his career, the big plays were few and far between, but he’s annually providing sacks, forced fumbles and interceptions. Still only 27, Martinez is the type of linebacker to build a team around. He’s the leader of the Giants’ defense.
Foyesade Oluokun still isn’t very well known with casual NFL fans, but he certainly is in IDP circles. Tiptoeing his way into a top 12 finish, Foye proved he belongs among the NFL elite with his all-purpose game. Oluokun reached the 100 total tackle number for the first time of his career in a full time role and brought the pain with 4 forced fumbles, 2 interceptions, 3 sacks and 4 pass deflections. Expecting those numbers to be replicated is asking too much, but his full-time role should continue in Arthur Smith’s new scheme. A slight regression from his 20 PPG 2020 with just fewer big plays, but Foye makes for a fine LB2.
Anthony Walker’s true NFL value is under consideration as the Colts let their former defensive leader go to Cleveland on a cheap 1-year 3-million deal. Walker is expected to take over BJ Goodson’s old role in the middle of the defense, where Goodson averaged 14.8 PPG. That’s right where I have Walker heading into 2021, as he profiles as a similar run stuffer that can struggle in coverage. The opportunity for Walker to provide a decent chunk of tackles is there, but it’s hard to expect Walker to step in and provide top 20 LBer numbers. At 15 PPG, Walker is a back-end startable option on opportunity alone, but his value could be cut at any time like any JAG IDP player in the Paul Worrilow ilk.
CB: Kenny Moore 12 PPG, Kyle Fuller 11 PPG
There aren’t many corners that hold any sort of IDP value, but Kenny Moore is one of them. He’s posted well over 50 total tackles every season since 2018 and is one of the few corners that are asked to blitz frequently. Last year he posted a career high 81 tackles, with 4 interceptions, 2 sacks and a forced fumble. A regression is in order from his 14.7 PPG, but Moore will be a fantastic weekly play.
Kyle Fuller’s offseason came with a shock after he was let go by the Bears but he quickly landed on his feet with one of the best secondaries in the NFL. Similar to his lead corner duties in Chicago, Fuller will be tasked with a full workload, per usual. In his time in Chicago, he’s been an interception and pass deflection machine, but he registered a career low 1 INT and 8 pass deflection to a CB63 finish. If historical production is any indication, Fuller will bump those totals up into a normal startable option.
S: Adrian Phillips 14 PPG, Anthony Harris 13 PPG, Eric Murray 11 PPG
Adrian Phillips elected free agency two years ago and signed with the Patriots. That turned out to be a wise decision as half their defense opted out due to COVID and Phillips ended up as a top 10 safety in our scoring. His total tackle numbers were superb with over 100 and he threw in a pair of INTs and a sack for good measure. What Phillips’ role will be is still up for debate as there’s talk of Kyle Dugger getting more run in various packages. Regardless, Phillips is likely locked into another startable safety role, but expecting him to replicate a top 10 safety season is expecting too much.
The Anthony Harris train has been picking up steam since taking over as the full-time starter in Minnesota. After signing with the Eagles, he’s expected to be the leader in their revamped secondary. With the Vikings, Harris was a do-it-all safety opposite Harrison Smith creating a difficult read on what their defense was doing on a per snap basis. Through that role, Harris registered over 100 total tackles, 7 pass deflections and not much else. The year prior however, he put himself on the IDP radar with six interceptions, but the tackle numbers were under 60. If he can put it all together in Philly, Harris could be a breakout candidate. As it stands, he’s likely a top 32 option with upside for more.
Eric Murray is a trash bin player and if it wasn’t for Bill O’ Brien’s bonehead signing, he wouldn’t be a starter. With a 7.4 million cap hit this year, that will sadly be the case again, pending some wise turn of events. As a full-time starter, Murray posted 7 of his 15 weeks under 10 points and missed week 16 to boot. In fact, he only had two games over 12 points, including a 41 point week 14. Murray is barely a bye-week fodder and don’t expect that to change in 2021.
Off: Los Angeles Chargers 12 PPG
X-Factor: How high are the ceilings of the starting running backs?
PPG: 303
W-L: 6-11
Overall, David’s team lacks the star power necessary to compete for a championship. There are some bright spots at quarterback and linebacker, but overall the team is filled with over-the-hill veterans and JAG IDPs. The roster is in need of a full-scale rebuild, cashing in the assets to build a solid foundation for the future. Philosophically, many dynasty owners want to be in two places, either rebuilding or competing. This roster is neither. It’s what I call the purgatory of sadness. There is a finite amount of draft picks for sale from competing teams. It may be wise for Dave to build for the future sooner rather than later before other AFC ‘hopefuls’ start thinking the same thing.
