Coach: Andy Reid 8 PPG
QB: Patrick Mahomes 40 PPG
The future GOAT of the NFL has been the number one quarterback since the day he stepped onto the football field. Patrick Mahomes averaged 40 PPG last year and scored over 600 points for the second time in his career. The stars have aligned for his fantasy prospects. Mahomes is paired with a future Hall of Fame Coach, a Hall of Fame tight end and the fastest wide receiver in the league. The Chiefs enjoyed a salary cap cheat code with their former 1st rounder on his rookie contract, but that is now coming to an end like it has for his IFL owners, who are paying him 16.2 mil and 27 mil respectively. 40 PPG is the expectation for Patrick and he will likely have multiple seasons over this mark through the next five years. He’s the premiere fantasy quarterback and a unique PPG advantage for his owners.
RB/WR/TE: Travis Kelce 30 PPG, Nick Chubb 26 PPG, Ezekiel Elliott 24 PPG, Calvin Ridley 22 PPG, Kareem Hunt 17 PPG 6th men: Antonio Brown 14 PPG, CJ Uzomah 12 PPG
The consistency Travis Kelce has displayed is astounding. Through his age 31 campaign, Kelce holds the all-time record for receiving yards with 71 per game and has topped 1000 yards for five straight years. An ironman at a position that sees injuries at one of the highest rates, Kelce is a special dynasty asset, especially in our 1.5 PPR league. He’s really a wide receiver playing as a tight end, as it’s extremely rare for a player at his position to receive over 120 targets every season. The last three years especially have been booko targets, ranking top 10 in the NFL. The Mahomes/Kelce stack is truly special and while both Mahomes/Kelce owners struggle with depth, the PPG output of this duo will keep their owners in many a game.
Despite missing 4 ½ games, Nick Chubb still finished with over 1,000 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns. Combine that with a 5.6 yards per carry and you’ll be hard-pressed to find a better pure running back in the NFL. Chubb may not have the upside of many running backs because of his capped receiving looks, but he doesn’t have to still be a top 16 RB/WR/TE. Our scoring is so overpowered for running backs that his efficiency of carries provides an elite asset. Should anything happen to Hunt, Chubb has displayed a decent prowess to catch the football, but likely doesn’t eclipse 40 targets with Hunt fully fit. As it stands, the Browns’ offense revolves around the running game and the running game revolves around Nick Chubb.
Ezekiel Elliot is one of the highest profile names in the NFL, but it’s been an up and down career for the 6-year pro. Zeke’s efficiency isn’t what it once was, and many folks across the NFL are asking themselves if he should be considered as such. Efficiency wise, Zeke was below average last year, with just 4.0 yards per carry and a messily 16.3 attempts per broken tackle. The shining light with Zeke is volume. He’s tasked with one of the highest workloads in the NFL and last year was provided 244 carries and 52 receptions in just 15 games. Everything appears to be uniform for his workload heading into the season with little talk of additional carries being siphoned to quality backup Tony Pollard. Last season only saw Zeke find the endzone 6 times on rushes, so that number should bump up his PPG by a couple of points. Zeke is certainly still a RB1 pending any sort of changes to his elite volume.
It’s the Calvin Ridley show in Atlanta now. Without Julio 100% for most of the season, Ridley posted career highs across targets (143), receptions (90) and yards (1374). It took a minute for Ridley to truly take off, but he boasted a 20 PPG pace, which is not easy for a receiver to achieve. His 9 total touchdowns are right in line with what he should produce and he’s finished between 7-10 touchdowns every season since entering the league. Finishing top 10 in targets in the NFL will probably continue so long as the Falcons pass-heavy strategy does as well. There are no established receivers in Atlanta and Matt Ryan will be targeting his new #1 more than ever. At the end of the day, it boils down to keeping up those touchdown numbers and opportunities in the RedZone. His 26 total targets ranked third in the NFL and scored on 7 of those attempts.
For any running back to produce the way Kareem Hunt has in a reserve role is downright shocking. His high floor status of only two games of less than 13 PPG put Hunt in elite company as a stud muffin IFL play in 2020. Loyalists of Hunt after seeing him kick a woman in the face seem to have paid off. While Chubb missed his four games between weeks 5-8, Hunt did see an increase of carries, but he only received under 10 carries three times, all coming between weeks 14-16. So what does the future hold for the Chubb/Hunt backfield? It’s truly hard to predict. Hunt was much more of a receiving option in 2019 and equaled his reception total from 2020 in only seven games. Will the Browns turn to Hunt as their preferred 3rd down back like in 2019 or will Chubb and Hunt share the carry total in a 60/40 split for much like they did last year? For now, Hunt will receive a 17 PPG prediction which splits the difference between his 20 PPG 2020 and 15 PPG 2019.
PK: Younghoe Koo 11 PPG
PN: Tress Way 10 PPG
DT: Sebastian Joseph-Day 15 PPG
The Day Parade joined the IFL defensive tackle party last year as a high floor tackling machine and shockingly did it on less than 50% of the snaps! With 55 total tackles, he ranked in the top 5 of defensive tackles, which bodes well for future production. The epitome of an IDP sleeper, Day is poised for a helping of a full-time role in 2021. He’s as safe an option as there is at the DT position and if he can increase his sack/pressure numbers even a tad, we could see him become a top 5 option in short order.
DE: Leonard Williams 14 PPG, Dre’Mont Jones 11 PPG
I don’t know what sort of Wheaties Leonard Williams was snacking on last year, but he set a career-high in pressures by a staggering 16 and posted a career-high 11.5 sacks. Had Williams’ 3-sack week 17 counted, he likely finishes in the top five at DE and he’s making some of that holdout coin. The big question is, can Big L duplicate his pass-rushing prowess when the first five years of his career saw him as a mostly run-stuffing specialist? Hard to say, but after finishing top 10 in the NFL in total pressures last year, I won’t be betting on a large regression after the change of scenery. 14 PPG is right in line with his week 1-16 numbers.
Dre’Mont Jones’ 2020 was a step forward for the 3rd year pro out of Ohio State, who provided startable numbers through the second half of the year. After returning from injury from week 7 on he finished as the DE11 with a solid 37 total tackles and 6.5 sacks. He likely will replicate his 2/3rds snap share along the quality Denver defensive line. Unless he can improve his pressure rate, it’s unlikely Jones will replicate 6.5 sacks on just 16 total pressures. Only through two years, there’s certainly room for growth.
LB: TJ Watt 20 PPG, Za’Darius Smith 16 PPG, Chandler Jones 15 PPG, Shaq Barrett 14 PPG
TJ Watt was in a league of his own in 2020. According to Pro Football Reference, Watt led all other players by 16 pressures with a total of 61. That’s the same difference between the 2nd and 28th finishers in total pressures. Of course, Watt went nuclear and posted over 50 total tackles, along with 15 sacks totaling an over 300 point season, which is rare for a pass-rushing linebacker. Heading into 2021, nothing much is changing and 15 sacks are right in line with where he should finish if he keeps his pressures up. Watt and Aaron Donald are neck and neck for the best defensive player and Watt should have beat him out last year for DOPY honors.
Za’Darius Smith or Big Z is one of the most underappreciated pass rushers of the past two years. Since coming to Green Bay, he’s evolved into an annual double-digit sack artist and largely led the Packers’ front seven to back to back NFC championship games. He’s been the exception to the linebacker pass-rushing rule and has provided a weekly serviceable floor. As a top 32 option at the position since joining the Packers, Smith’s opportunity isn’t going anywhere and is one of the biggest bargains in both IFL conferences.
The world seems to have forgotten about Chandler Jones, who had an absurd 19 sacks in 2019. A torn bicep ruined his 2020 four games in. Last season Jones’ production vanished and had 34 points through the first four weeks. It begs the question, is he washed up or is he going to rebound into an elite pass rusher again? It’s hard to say, but I’d be shocked if he touches anywhere over 15+ sacks again. He was lucky to hit 19 sacks on 40 pressures and his tackle totals don’t provide a high floor. At 15 PPG, he should be around the 10 total sack number and provide 50 or so total tackles.
There aren’t better case studies than following the pressures than Shaq Barrett. He totaled 51 pressures in 2019 and 42 pressures in 2020, but his sack totals dropped from 19 to 8. Barrett’s 2019 explosion put him on the map as one of the best pass rushers in the NFL and opposite of JPP makes the Bucs an extremely dangerous sack-heavy team. 8-10 sacks are about where Barrett will settle into for the next few seasons. He’s your typical boom/bust pass rusher linebacker to round out a quality linebacking group.
CB: Kenny Moore 12 PPG, L’Jarius Sneed 12 PPG
There aren’t many corners that hold any sort of IDP value, but Kenny Moore is one of them. He’s posted well over 50 total tackles every season since 2018 and is one of the few corners that are asked to blitz frequently. Last year he posted a career high 81 tackles, with 4 interceptions, 2 sacks and a forced fumble. A regression is in order from his 14.7 PPG, but Moore will be a fantastic weekly play.
L’Jarius Sneed missed about half the season, but he was a VERY productive corner when he was on the field. Posting 18 PPG in 5 of his 9 games certainly will make him a very popular start heading into his sophomore year and he’ll be busy with offenses often trailing the Chiefs. He’s the type of corner to target in IDP leagues.
S: Kamren Curl 13 PPG, Daniel Sorensen 13 PPG
Kamren Curl was a waiver wire darling after taking over for Landon Collins. Curl balled out as a 7th round pick rookie, so much so that he’s keeping a starting job in the Football Team’s secondary. Curl is reportedly keeping the strong safety role, while Collins is pivoting to free safety, which is shocking. For starters, Curl is a hybrid safety with experience playing free safety in college. Collins’ weakness is coverage and free safety is a position that’s instrumental in keeping your athleticism. I’m not sure Curl is going to keep the strong safety job for long if at all over Collins, but for now, Curl slots in as a mid-range S2.
Daniel Sorensen is one of those sneaky IDP players that may not always play 100% of the snaps, but they are valuable opportunities. The Chiefs love to rotate their linebackers and Sorensen is pretty much a glorified backer. He finished with 15 PPG with a S17 finish, but he should take a step back with the new influx of talent at linebacker. (Although Willie Gay is on the IR) Sorensen should be serviceable, but he may become a frustrating player to own at times.
Off: Kansas City Chiefs 16 PPG
X-Factor: The stars need to stay healthy.
PPG: 359
W-L: 14-3
Nils finally brought home a championship to the NFC! It was a long time coming and that needed to be restated. He pivoted into a lack of depth for stars mentality and that is what he’s bringing into 2021. The QB/TE/OFF combo is the best in the league and leads this championship-caliber group. Chubb and Elliott also will be major factors and they would be #1 options on most NFC teams. Moving onto the defensive side of the ball is where Nils runs into questions. The defensive line is asking for Leonard Williams to stay elite in the pass rush department and two part-time players to take a step forward with more opportunity. I’ve also never seen a competitive team rely on 4 pass rushers to provide points, so that position group is uncharted territory. Secondary wise, it could also be better. Overall, Nils is hoping he stays healthy to his stars and if they do, he heads into week 1 as the favorite in the NFC.
