Coach: Mike Tomlin 6 PPG
QB: Aaron Rodgers 30 PPG
It was another MVP season for Aaron Rodgers, who now is looking for his 3rd straight MVP crown to leave no doubt he’s a better QB than Brett Favre. Last year’s numbers were another absurd season, with almost 4,000 yards, 35 TDs and just 4 INTs. (2 of those came week 1.) Rodgers also low-key added 3 TDs on the ground. His TD numbers fell off a cliff (as expected last season) from 48 in 2020 to just 35 last year. (He’s only had over 40 twice since he became the starter in 2008.)
Moving forward, what can we expect from the 38-year-old? Arguably the best WR in the NFL has moved to Vegas and he now is throwing to unproven and over-the-hill talents. It’s very possible the offense relies on a run-heavy approach as the young WRs learn the system. I simply can’t expect Rodgers to keep up his 35+ PPG pace with the weapons in Green Bay. A regression is incoming for the 18-year-pro and he’s staring at another ‘what if’ season as the roster took a step back. (Packer fans are praying they don’t draw the 9ers or Bucs in the playoffs this year. Perhaps try the Rammies?)
RB/WR/TE: Tyreek Hill 18 PPG, Josh Jacobs 16 PPG, Jaylen Waddle 15 PPG, Marquise Brown 14 PPG, Chase Claypool 14 PPG 6th men: *James Robinson 15 PPG*, Tyler Higbee 13 PPG, Austin Hooper 13 PPG, Hayden Hurst 13 PPG, CJ Uzomah 10 PPG
It was another All-Pro-worthy season for Tyreek Hill, who posted mammoth numbers courtesy of the best QB that’s ever thrown the football. The fact that we’ll never see Mahomes and Tyreek make sweet music together again is disappointing, but Hill chased the money down to Miami. In three of the last four seasons, The Cheetah has eclipsed 1,200 yards, 130 targets and 9 TDs. He was as safe of a commodity at the receiver position. Now in Miami in a crowded and potentially run-heavy offense, can we expect an over 20 PPG output? My money is on regression. Jaylen Waddle and Mike Gesicki loom large as competent targets. More importantly, Tua Tagovailoa is not in the same galaxy as Mahomes as a passer. There’s so much working against Hill here; run-heavy scheme change, QB play and the receiving talent around him. While 18 PPG is nothing to scoff at, expect a top 16 WR moving forward versus a top 3.
It’s weird looking at the Raiders and projecting their players like the Patriots. Josh Jacobs is now positioned to take the Damien Harris role, which won’t look too different than what he was last season. It doesn’t appear that the Raiders’ new staff has too much faith in the long-term prospects in Jacobs, however, as they declined his 5th-year option and all signs point to him moving on after the year. That won’t be terrible for his fantasy prospects, as the Raiders will likely be a headache for fantasy running back owners heading into the future. Last year, Jacobs was not a quality runner, with a pathetic 2.0 yards after contact. He offers next to nothing as a receiver and Kenyan Drake will continue to operate as a 3rd down option. Still, this early-down role will provide ample opportunity with some quality weeks, but he’s touchdown-dependent for a boom week. He’s a solid RB3.
Jaylen Waddle, burst onto the scene in Miami as a target hog in a dink and dunk offense. His 140 targets ranked 11th in the NFL. Sadly, his value was predicated on volume. The targets are going to evaporate with Hill in town. The 9ers old OC Mike McDaniel is likely to employ a run-first scheme that’ll take the ball out of the hands of Tua. Don’t be surprised if 15 PPG is a bit of a stretch either, as Waddle could look more like Brandon Aiyuk in this offense instead of a prolific number 2. It’s not Waddle’s fault. It’ll be on his QB to take a step forward as a talent. PFF did a study back in 2020 about how often 2 wide receivers finish as top 24 options on the same team. It happens an average of 4.3 instances every year. It’s possible, if not likely Waddle hits that mark and flirts on the Mike Williams/Michael Pittman spectrum. (Not as a player, but in their PPG range.)
Everyone and their mother seems to think this move from Baltimore to Arizona is going to be good for Marquise Brown’s fantasy prospects. I’m here to tell you that is incorrect. Marquise averaged 16.1 PPG last season on 146 targets. That is an abysmal average. There’s zero chance Brown finishes in the top 10 in NFL targets again with AJ Green, Zach Ertz, Rondale Moore and DeAndre Hopkins as the other receiving options. Regression is coming and coming fast for Brown. He’ll be tasked to take over the Christian Kirk role, which is that of a big-play threat. Moving forward, Brown is best treated as a high-end bye-week filler.
There’s an expectation that Chase Claypool will take a step forward with JuJu and James Washington out of Pittsburgh. Last year didn’t see any Steelers’ wide receiver play 100% of the snaps, which is quite a unique aspect of their team. Claypool is the jump ball threat, similar to what Mike Williams does for the Chargers. His rookie year vastly exceeded expectations, with a 109-target 9 TD campaign. His 2nd year saw him take a step back across the board, most notably his TD numbers with only scoring once in ’21. It’s likely we see the TD pendulum swing back to higher totals, but this offense is tough to project. There’s so much transition and we simply don’t know how Trubisky or Pickett will perform. Claypool will be a major part of that, but his lack of receptions keeps him in the high-end bye-week filler area versus a weekly starter type. There’s upside for more here, but I’m not willing to project anything higher until he proves otherwise.
PK: Nick Folk 9 PPG
PN: N/A 8 PPG
DT: Javon Hargrave 13 PPG
God knows what happened with Javon Hargrave to begin the year, but he was nothing less than a cheat code. Through weeks 1-7, he was the #22 overall player averaging 25 PPG! (Same as Travis Kelce and only one PPG behind Jonathan Taylor.) Through weeks 8-17, he crashed back to earth as the DT37 in that time. What he will be in 2022 is somewhere in between, likely regressing back to his career norms of 40-55 total tackles and 4-6 sacks. Hargrave now has to deal with Jordan Davis and is very possibly looking at a steep regression. He profiles as a low-end DT1.
DE: Rashan Gary 17 PPG, Maxx Crosby 15 PPG
Don’t look now, but it’s time to start paying serious attention to Rashan Gary. He took a major step forward in his third year, finishing tied for 4th in total pressures with Micah Parsons. (47) Gary’s 9.5 sacks led the Packers’ defense resulting in the team being comfortable moving on from Za’Darius Smith. Gary has overall #1 EDGE upside should he ever bump up his tackle numbers. The pressures are there and by season’s end, we could be looking at Gary as a fringe top 5 EDGE asset.
Maxx Crosby is one of those players that loves to pressure the quarterback, but can’t seem to clean up with sacks. Crosby was a middle-of-the-road DE2 last year, averaging 12.6 PPG. His top 10 pressure rate points to progression into the double-digit sack territory again. He’s not a high tackle guy, holding himself back from likely ever reaching elite heights. 15 PPG is nothing to sneeze at and will slide right into the Shaq Barrett territory once the sack numbers catch up again.
LB: Nakobe Dean 19 PPG, Isaiah Simmons 16 PPG, Josey Jewell 15 PPG, Ja’Whaun Bentley 14 PPG
I’m tired of the Nakobe Dean disrespect. The dude was the best player on the best defense in the history of college football. Slipping to the third round because of a shoulder issue he refused to clean up in the offseason and a lack of premium at the position, he was drafted into the perfect situation for fantasy goodness. Last year, Alex Singleton and TJ Edwards both averaged a robust 17 PPG. Dean likely slides right into the MLB spot and the signal-caller for the defense sooner rather than later. A mechanical engineering major, Dean checks all the boxes as a cerebral player to lead a defense. Both Kyzir White and TJ Edwards are being paid less than $1.5 million. The linebacker battle will come down to who is the best player and by the end of the preseason, it’ll be Dean.
The fantasy world should have known it would take some time for Isaiah Simmons to develop. A converted, undersized safety from Clemson, the Cardinals immediately asked him to do things out of his comfort zone. Through his first couple of years, he’s proven to be a bit of a big-play guy, with 5 forced fumbles, 2 INTs and 3.5 sacks. This is in due part of how he’s utilized as a do-it-all chess piece. He’s tasked with snaps at linebacker, EDGE and safety. (233 snaps along the DLine, 581 snaps in the box and 161 snaps at slot corner.) If the tackle numbers modestly increase from 100 to 120, I could be undershooting his projection here. The diversity of his utilization keeps his upside capped a bit. A third-year breakout is very much in the cards. He’s a solid top 20 option.
Josey Jewell’s 2021 ended week two with a torn pectoral, but the Broncos are moving forward with him as their LB1. He’s expected to be on the field for most, if not 100% of snaps in 2022. Known as a stout run defender and questionable coverage guy, Jewell took a step forward in the pass defense department in 2020. This year will provide whether or not he can be a long-term option for the Broncos. Keep in mind he is the epitome of an opportunity IDP. He provides little to no big-play ability through the first 4 years of his career, but he will eclipse the 100 total tackle mark with a fully played season.
Ja’Whaun Bentley is likely the only linebacker you’ll want to own from the Patriots. Their inside guy’s snaps counts vary depending on the gameplan, limiting most of them useless for our purposes. (Bentley ranged from 49% to 93% depending on the game.) That being said, Bentley provided some quality weeks and a LB37 finish, right in line with Matt Milano. There will be some busts sprinkled in, but Ja’Whaun is a quality LB4 on a contending team.
CB: Patrick Surtain II 11 PPG, Jeff Okudah 11 PPG
Patrick Surtain’s rookie year ended with a solid CB18 finish, resulting in a pretty solid floor. There were little to no bust weeks to speak of, with a copy and paste 6.5-17 points in 15 of his games. His 57 total tackles, along with 4 INTs and 14 PDs will keep him in the top 20 conversation moving forward. Surtain is shaping up to be a lockdown corner. Hopefully, he can continue to produce for IDP purposes.
Welp, this is probably the year we determine whether or not Jeff Okudah can be a startable asset for the Lions. A torn Achilles ruined his 2nd season week one. Now fully healthy, the Lions have to be hoping for some semblance of the player they took 3rd overall in 2020. He’ll be tasked to man one of the starting spots to begin the year. Bet your bootyholes he’ll be tested early and often. He’ll be a fine asset for IDP squads and locked in as a top 32 option for as long as he’s a full-time player.
S: Derwin James 18 PPG, Micah Hyde 13 PPG
It’s always fun to talk about the stars of the league. Derwin James certainly fits the bill and god bless he finally played in the majority of games again! The man is a playmaker in every sense of the word, impacting the game in every facet. He’s wrangling in 100 total tackles, in addition to 6-8 big plays. James simply just can’t stay healthy and it has to have spoiled him to his GMs. So long as he’s on the field, he’s the S1, but availability to the best skill to have. I was a bit hesitant to anoint Derwin as an elite option with the scheme change last year, but it’s full steam ahead after his S1 2021 finish.
Micah Hyde doesn’t flash as a high-profile IDP option, but he’s an old reliable. Throughout most of his entire career, he’s finished anywhere from a top 30 to a top 10 season. He’s as safe as any safety to pencil in for 70 total tackles, 3-5 INTs and 10 PDs. In his age 31 season, that’ll be par for the course for the former 5th-round pick.
Off: Las Vegas Raiders 13 PPG
PPG: 305
W-L: 7-10
There are some very bright spots across Danny’s team. Defense is the strength of the squad with Gary, Dean, Simmons and James. Offensively, the team regressed with the Hill/Waddle teaming up in Miami. That move likely bumped this squad out of playoff contention. Depth-wise, Danny has a variety of TE flyers that could be startable if their offenses break right. Hooper, Hurst and Higbee all could outproduce their projection.
It wouldn’t surprise me if Danny can make his first playoff appearance. There just isn’t enough juice to anoint him as a serious playoff contender, but this squad is on the fringe of contention. Just need 1-2 offensive stars!
