Coach: Todd Bowles 7 PPG
QB: Jameis Winston 28 PPG
It’s no surprise soap opera-esque Jameis Winston flamed out on the Bucs to then go to play for their division rival. Winston hasn’t been too shabby either, as he led the team to a 5-2 record as the starter. (Although he did lose to both the Panthers and Giants) The man’s turnover issues evaporated under head coach Sean Payton and he turned into an efficient game manager for many of his games. (Sans the Panthers week 2 no show.) There are rumblings that Winston will be tasked with more of a high-flying offense under OC Pete Carmichael Jr. I fully expect him to go back to his gunslinging ways, making him an attractive, but a bust potential option for fantasy. He’ll slide into a borderline top 16 option, with QB1 upside in excellent matchups. Just expect beyond frustrating weeks and mind-numbing throws.
RB/WR/TE: Aaron Jones 22 PPG, Melvin Gordon 16 PPG, Mike Gesicki 14 PPG, Julio Jones 14 PPG, Chase Edmonds 14 PPG 6th men: Gerald Everett 12 PPG, Myles Gaskin 10 PPG, Mo Alie-Cox 10 PPG, Odell Beckham TBD, Isaiah Likely 6.9 PPG
Soon-to-be 28-year-old Aaron Jones has been a revelation for fantasy owners who made the wise choice in investing in him as one of the 2017 running back legends. He’s annually shared the backfield in a timeshare, once with Jamaal Williams and now with AJ Dillion. There is opportunity aplenty for the former 5th rounder out of UTEP, who will likely be tasked with additional receiving targets with Davante Adams now a Raider. Jones is also due for some touchdown luck, as his 10 total touchdowns were a career low since 2018. My biggest issue with Jones is the age cliff staring him in the face and he could die at any time. He’s only been able to play a full season once, so one injury could result in his value spontaneously combusting. For 2022, he’s an elite asset and should have week winning upside. Fingers crossed you can get through his week 14 bye if you’re in the playoffs.
While Javonte Williams owners had to be livid, Melvin Gordon owners were content with him resigning with Denver. While there is a new coaching staff, I think it’s safe to say that Melvin will still be heavily involved with opportunity. His 191 carries last year and 27 receptions weren’t elite by any means, but if the usage is in the same ballpark, Melvin will be more than startable as a back-end option. He was providing a quality 2.3 yards after contact, so even at 29, he still has some juice left in his legs. Regression is likely from his 2021 numbers and keep a close eye on who is getting those high-value redzone carries. Melvin received them last year over Javonte.
With the addition of Tyreek Hill, folks are down on Mike Gesicki. Mike McDaniel’s new scheme is run-heavy and has featured a fantasy-relevant tight end. At the end of the day, I hope we see some adjustments to McDaniels’ scheme, tailoring the playcalling to the talent on the Dolphins… which is not the running back room. There’s potential that Gesicki keeps his usage up while Waddle is the one who is mostly affected by Tyreek in town. It’s very possible Gesicki sees some target regression, which is reflected in his 14 PPG outlook. He’s a back-end starting option.
Julio Jones to the Bucs? WHAT! Atlanta fans are reeling and Buc fans are ecstatic. As for Julio’s fantasy outlook, this is a pretty great landing spot, despite what you may have heard. While Jones played as the 2nd option in Nashville, he played in one of the most run-heavy teams in the league. That resulted in a no-show season and that’s when he was healthy. Now with the GOAT throwing him passes and with an underrated outlook for opportunity, Julio is back on the starting radar. We saw Antonio Brown slide into this offense and post startable numbers, why shouldn’t we expect Julio to do the same? In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me if we see Jones post one of the highest touchdown numbers of his career. 90-100 targets are the expectation and three receivers can feast in this offense. Look no further than Antonio Brown, who averaged 19.4 PPG in 7 healthy games.
It was tough sledding for Chase Edmonds, as he was shaping up to be the lead back for the Cardinals before they signed James Conner. While Edmonds provided between the 20s production, Conner was the redzone weapon. His high ankle sprain ruined his season and the Cardinals elected to move on. Now with Miami, this landing spot is a bit murky for projections. This is a 9er backfield, which will likely result in a very frustrating timeshare, with high variance on a weekly basis. Edmonds is by far the highest paid out of the group and I think he’ll have a similar usage to what he saw in Arizona. Sony Michel could factor in new the goaline while Raheem Mostert will be a high-quality backup. There’s also the case of Myles Gaskin, who led the backfield the last couple of years. Edmonds is on thin ice, but there’s potential here. Just have a backup plan.
PK: Jason Sanders 7 PPG
PN: Tress Way 10 PPG
DT: DJ Reader 10 PPG
Elite nose tackle delux DJ Reader may not be an IDP asset, but he’s an incredible run stopper. It wasn’t too long ago when the Bengals’ defense was swiss cheese, but that changed with a healthy Reader. While the transition took time as he missed most of the 2020 season, the Bengals were the 5th best run defense in yards per game. (Versus 28th in 2020) That’s DJ Reader for you. He comes out on obvious passing downs and is negligible in the passing department. He’s best left on waivers for IDP purposes but can be a bye-week filler in a pinch.
DE: TJ Watt 26 PPG, Trey Hendrickson 14 PPG
I had a bit of a chuckle that Josh may have the worst defense in the AFC, but he owns the most valuable IDP asset by a country mile.
TJ Watt is an absolute cheat code. There is no one, not a single IDP is within two tiers of Watt, who will be scoring at a similar clip to our elite running backs. There is an argument that can be made Watt is the most valuable asset in our league with the PPG advantage he provides at EDGE. While Watt is a bit boom/bust, when Watt hits, his GM will likely win. 8 weeks he scored over 25 points and in four of them, he scored over 40! He notched an incredible 21.5 sacks on 52 pressures in 15 games. While this isn’t sustainable and Myles Garrett’s pressures are comparable, it’s Watt’s tackle numbers that separate him. He’s likely heading for another 60 total tackle campaign and is switching from 2 tackles per point to 3. Watt is one of the few league-winning assets and will be moving forward for the next 3-5 years.
Trey Hendrickson doesn’t get the love he deserves. While his tackle numbers don’t inspire confidence and his 2020 pressure numbers screamed regression, Trey took a step forward in his first year with the Bengals, notching another stellar 14-sack season. The pressures took a major step forward into elite territory, finishing 6th in the NFL with 45. On the back of his sack numbers, he’s a solid mid-range DE2, but he desperately needs to bump up his tackle numbers if he’ll ever be more. There were six(!) weeks last season where his only tackle was a sack.
LB: Zach Cunningham 12 PPG, Krys Barnes 7 PPG, Travin Howard 4 PPG
Zach Cunningham had a roller coaster of a year. He was released by the tanking Texans after a bit of a soap opera season. He joined a great situation with the Titans, who elected to rotate their linebackers. Between David Long, Rashaan Evans, Jayon Brown, and Cunningham, none played over 75% of the snaps from week 15 on. (Even in the divisional round.) This year, Long, Cunningham and Monty Rice are the three vying for snaps. As it stands, Cunningham will play on run downs and be taken out in pass-heavy situations. Unfortunately, that isn’t conducive for the IDP world and he’s best treated as a bye-week filler/LB4. The days of him as an elite IDP asset are hanging on a thread. He must receive those coverage snaps.
Krys Barnes is a fantastic story as an UDFA from UCLA, who was posting stellar IDP numbers when given opportunity in 2020. He was slated to be the starter in the middle of the Packers’ defense before De’Vondre Campbell usurped him with an All-Pro campaign. With Quay Walker no in the fold, Barnes is relegated to depth. It would be surprising to see him eclipse 20% of the snaps with both healthy. He can be dropped to waivers.
Travin Howard underwent core muscle surgery in late July and is slated to return at some point this season. He is miles away from IDP relevance behind Bobby Wagner and Ernest Jones when he returns. He can be safely dropped to waivers.
CB: L’Jarius Sneed 13 PPG, Donte Jackson 12 PPPG
L’Jarius Sneed benefits from being the CB1 on the team with Patrick Mahomes at cornerback. He is a tackle-heavy delux corner, whose floor is incredible. While he missed a couple of weeks last season, he only posted 4 of 14 weeks under 10 points. (and none under 6) That puts Sneed in top 5 corner conversation. In his first two seasons, he’s also posted an annual sack or two and provides 2-3 INTs. He is the epitome of a CB1.
He’s on a tragically bad team, but Donte Jackson has been a quality IDP corner. Last year was no different, which provided IDP owners 5 weeks over 15 points. (In 12 total weeks) Jackson has struggled a bit in terms of not giving up big plays and is known as a bit of a gambler. That is not bad for IDP purposes. He recently received a contract extension and is locked into Carolina for the long-term future. He’s very relevant and is a fringe top 16 option.
S: Jessie Bates 13 PPG, Jimmie Ward 11 PPG, John Johnson 11 PPG
Holdout city is Jessie Bates’ game this offseason and has pledged to not play on the franchise tag. It’s very possible he could miss some games, as they don’t appear to be close to an extension and the Bengals are notorious for being fickle spenders. That being said, they do have numerous massive extensions coming on the offensive side of the ball and have to prioritize Burrow and eventually Ja’Marr Chase. Bates has been a tackle-heavy free safety on a bad Bengals defense for the early part of his career. That took a step back in 2021, but he was still a mid-range S2. His value is a bit in flux until we see what his situation looks like. In Cincy, he’s around the S25 range moving forward.
Jimmie Ward is a quality free safety, but his role isn’t substantive for IDP relevancy. Ward received love in the IDP world as a corner, but his switch to safety didn’t bump up his IDP stock like it potentially could have. Ward is the typical free safety that is perfect for bye-week purposes. He won’t wow you with stats, but can be used in a pinch to provide 7-12 points. Expect 60 total tackles and a few PDs to boot.
It’s been a dumpster fire the IDP value of John Johnson since moving to Cleveland. Instead of playing the valuable STAR role in LA, (which includes linebacker snaps), Johnson swapped to a pure free safety role, which resulted in a bye-week filler type of season. His tackle efficiency was abysmal, so there’s room for progression here, but there’s no reason to think Johnson is worth more than just above the league minimum at this point. His name recognition is higher than his IDP value. Perhaps his role can change, but I’m not expecting a return to top 20 safety glory.
Off: New Orleans Saints 10 PPG
PPG: 275
W-L: 1-16
In the era of tanking, having teams like this is not surprising. Josh provides a team that is very Josh-esque. It has some quality offensive pieces but is a no-show on the defensive side of the ball. (sans TJ Watt, of course) Through 5 years of play, there have been no signs of Josh having any idea how to play fantasy football. Thankfully, reinforcements will arrive with a guaranteed top 3 pick and we’ll be watching Bijan Robinson highlights together come week 1.
