Coach: Mike Vrabel 6 PPG
QB: Josh Allen 37 PPG
Magical Josh Allen. That’s how I’d describe Joshy from a historical point of view. The former 10th overall pick out of Wyoming possessed dual-threat upside, but let’s not forget he was closer to the Jalen Hurts spectrum to Patrick Mahomes when he joined the league. It was borderline unprecedented for a QB to fix his completion percentage. He went from an abysmal 52.8% in his rookie year to a sterling 69.2% in 2020. That led to a runner-up finish in the MVP race and a 600+ point total in fantasy. 2021 saw a bit of a dip in production across all categories, but not a peep was heard with his overall QB1 finish. Lowkey, his completion percentage did drop 6 points in 2021 and he finished 24th in the league, between Daniel Jones and Andy Dalton. Accuracy may continue to be an issue with Joshy, but there’s no question this dude can lead the Bills to a championship. Moving forward, he’s arguably the best dual-threat weapon in the NFL, but keep an eye on his accuracy moving forward. If the Bills struggle, this may creep back up into conversations. With how often they ask him to throw the ball and run, his floor is in the mid-30s for PPG.
RB/WR/TE: Jonathan Taylor 31 PPG, Dalvin Cook 26 PPG, AJ Brown 19 PPG, Deebo Samuel 18 PPG, DJ Moore 18 PPG 6th men: Josh Jacobs 16 PPG, Allen Robinson 15 PPG, Brandon Aiyuk 13 PPG, Kenny Golladay 12 PPG, Sammy Watkins 12 PPG
Jonathan Taylor finally delivered on his potential with an overall RB/WR/TE season. It led both his GMs to the fantasy championship and one, to the IFL crown. Like few other RBs in the NFL, JT is the engine that fuels the Colts’ offense. He’s a rare commodity in the NFL – a workhorse. Taylor received 1st Team All-Pro honors, with incredible stats across the board, including a jaw-dropping 5.3 YPC on 332 attempts. The only knock on JT is the reception numbers, but no one is complaining with 30+ receptions annually and 300+ touches in our carry-heavy scoring. 500 points are again within reach if he can continue to keep his TD numbers up. Opportunity isn’t going anywhere.
There are few weapons in the NFL that strike fear in defenses like Dalvin Cook. Arguably the NFC North’s most versatile weapon, Cook provides a do-it-all back skill set that translates to elite fantasy production. Dalvin has dropped fantasy magic when on the field since the moment he stepped onto the field in 2017. In fact, he provided a special memory to GMs last year with a 50 burger in the wild card round on a short week after missing the week prior. Heading into 2022, there is a new offensive scheme in town with former Rams’ OC Kevin O’Connell, but truth be told, the rush attempts won’t skew much differently than in years past. Minnesota ranked 16th (26.4) in carries per game and the Rams were a tad behind in 19th (25.7). Cook’s usage as an elite option isn’t going anywhere. Start the top 5 RB/WR/TE with confidence each week until proven otherwise.
AJ Brown was prone to some bust weeks in the NFL’s most run-heavy scheme and he’s moving straight to the NFL’s 2nd most run-heavy team. That being said, the biggest critique of the dude is he just needs to stay healthy. The biggest issue Brown has and will face is the lack of targets. The Titans attempted to rectify this early career issue, but he couldn’t stay on the field. He had a robust 99 targets in 11 games played. Jettisoned to a new team, the Eagles will hopefully instill him as the alpha and omega and have him in the top 16 in the NFL in targets, which would be at least 130 balls. Brown has also shown to be a quality red zone weapon but was never provided a high volume of looks. (He ranked outside the top 30 all three years in Tennessee.) I’m reluctant to send Brown into the fantasy stratosphere with Hurts as his QB and the scheme, but he’s going to eat and should be a top 10 receiver with excellent efficiency.
DJ Moore is just chugging along as one of the most underrated wide receivers in the NFL. The dude has three straight 1,000 yards seasons under his belt and scored 13 touchdowns his rookie season in 2018. Unfortunately, he’s touched the paint only 15 times since, but he’s provided his fantasy owners plenty of quality moments. Last year with Sam Darnold throwing him balls, Moore was one of the NFL’s premiere target hogs, with 163, 6th in the NFL. Keep in mind this was with CMC out for most of the year again, but the offense was running through Moore on double-digit looks most weeks. The touchdowns just didn’t surface again and the offense was not prioritizing him in the red zone either, with only 8 catches on 15 looks. Fingers fucking crossed the TD luck can take a step forward, while the targets are likely scaled back. That being said, Moore should take a step forward in 2022 and profiles as a fine 3 or 4 option in a quality IFL offense.
Good heavens to Becky did Deebo ball out last year. He went nuclear with an overall WR3 finish, ahead of guys like Justin Jefferson, Stefon Diggs, and Tyreek Hill. The reason why was his elite running opportunity with 51 carries, 320 yards and 7 rushing touchdowns. Since the start of the offseason, it’s been nothing but drama in the Deebo corner. He requested a trade, asked to not be utilized as a running back to prolong his career, and then rescinded the trade request. Deebo is a complex projection. We just don’t know how he’ll be utilized. That being said, it would be foolish to not give their shiftiest playmaker ample opportunities. How he’ll be utilized is the biggest piece of this equation. If he’s a 50-carry guy again, Deebo is going to be an elite 22 PPG option, but if he’s only getting 1-2 carries a game, a 16-18 PPG season is his ceiling. 13 total touchdowns will also be hard to replicate.
PK: Justin Tucker 10 PPG
PN: Mitch Wishnowsky 9 PPG
DT: Christian Wilkins 16 PPG, Quinnen Williams 16 PPG
In what resulted in one of the most striking progressions in recent memory, Christian Wilkins was an absolute animal in the tackle department in 2021. He tallied an insane 84 total tackles, the single-season tackle record for defensive tackles. In a year where we bumped up DT scoring to 3.5 per tackle, it was fanfuckingtastic timing. His high-volume tackle-faring days likely won’t go away, but he’s very likely to take a step back, likely into the 50-60 tackle range (which is still very good). Wilkins is a no-show in the pressure department despite playing 734 snaps. He finished 94th in total pressures with 17 and 3.5 sacks. Moving forward, he’s a fringe top 5 DT and a very fun personality to boot. Check out his mic ’d-up videos if you have a chance.
It was another season of success for the Big Q, who posted his 2nd top 10 DT campaign. Quinnen has delivered on his elite DT potential for fantasy purposes, who excels in our tackle heavy scoring. While his sack and pressure numbers leave a bit to be desired, Quinnen’s annual 50 total tackle numbers put him on the fringe of elite DT status. While there are other DTs who have a high ceiling, his best could be on the horizon if he can take a step forward in the pressures department. I doubt his GMs will care, so long as he can keep his current production.
DE: Nick Bosa 19 PPG, Shaq Barrett 15 PPG
When some players return from an ACL tear, it takes them a year to fully be themselves. Not Nick Bosa. He went out and finished third in total pressures and delivered a silly 15 sacks. He was an animal along the 9er defensive line that was largely responsible for carrying them to the NFC Championship game. The younger Bosa is a freak of nature and has actually eclipsed what we even his brother achieved in his first two healthy seasons. The sky is the limit for the soon-to-be 25-year-old. He has annual EDGE1 upside. While TJ Watt and Aaron Donald monopolize the DPOY conversation, Bosa could find himself there too with another campaign like 2021.
Shaquil Barrett kept doing his thing last season, finishing in the top 12 in pressures according to ProFootballReference with 39. He hit the double-digit sack mark for the second time in his career and finished as a high-end DE2 for fantasy purposes. In a deeper EDGE group, Barrett could get lost in the fray with splashier names, but he’ll be winning his fantasy owner weeks. He’ll be given plenty of opportunities to rush the passer against some abysmal NFC South opponents. It’s going to be great to watch him sack Jameis.
LB: Logan Wilson 18 PPG, Blake Martinez 17 PPG, Isaiah Simmons 16 PPG
Logan Wilson was going bananas last year and delivered on his potential coming out Wyoming. He was the total package projection as a tackle machine in what is lowkey becoming a LBer factory in Laramie. Wilson, from a statistical perspective, produces in all facets as an IDP stud, providing a forced fumble, 4 INTs and a sack in 13 games played. Wilson is the only full-time backer for Cincy and while he doesn’t grade as one of the best linebackers in the NFL, he’s likely slated to be the full-time starter in the middle of this squad for the foreseeable future.
Let’s talk about arguably the best buy low of the offseason, Blake Martinez. The LB5 in 2020, LB10 in 2019 and LB5 in 2019 sadly tore his ACL early on in 2021 which threw one of the elite linebackers off the board. Returning to form has been the goal this offseason and has been practicing without restriction since training camp began. Prior to the injury, Martinez had been one of the most durable players at LBer, with four straight seasons of sixteen games played. The only thing that gives me pause is the defensive scheme change, with more man coverage looks projected to have him take a small step back in the PPG department. (Baked into his projection.) That being said, there are few bets for guaranteed production than Martinez and he’ll slide right back into the solid tier of the IDP ranks. *Update* Obviously there have been concerns about Martinez’s usage in this new scheme. While he won’t be the playcaller, I am cautiously optimistic he’ll still be a full-time player. From what I’ve read, the Giants are bringing Martinez along slowly and he’ll be ready to rock for the regular season. I took his PPG projection down a peg, though.
The fantasy world should have known it would take some time for Isaiah Simmons to develop. A converted, undersized safety from Clemson, the Cardinals immediately asked him to do things out of his comfort zone. Through his first couple of years, he’s proven to be a bit of a big-play guy, with 5 forced fumbles, 2 INTs and 3.5 sacks. This is in due part of how he’s utilized as a do-it-all chess piece. He’s tasked with snaps at linebacker, EDGE and safety. (233 snaps along the DLine, 581 snaps in the box and 161 snaps at slot corner.) If the tackle numbers modestly increase from 100 to 120, I could be undershooting his projection here. The diversity of his utilization keeps his upside capped a bit. A third-year breakout is very much in the cards. He’s a solid top 20 option.
CB: Xavien Howard 12 PPG, Charvarius Ward 11 PPG
Xavien Howard is one of those elite corner options through absurd turnover and pass deflection numbers. While these are a bit unreliable, his career has clearly showcased this is a tendency. His upside put him firmly in the CB1 conversation and is one year removed from a 10 INT, 20 PD season. While he’ll never reach those heights again, Howard likely has multiple seasons of 50-tackle, 3-6 INTs left.
Charvarius Ward has been one of the hottest fantasy corner assets in recent years. He’s moving from the friendly confines of the Chiefs to the more modest fantasy prospects of the 49ers. While he’ll certainly be tasked with full-time usage, it’s much less likely there will be elite fantasy upside to be had. A step back is likely, but he’ll still be a very startable option.
S: Antoine Winfield 16 PPG, Jalen Thompson 15 PPG
Antonine Winfield Jr. has delivered on his potential the last few years as a safety who can impact the game in all sorts of ways. While his tackle numbers are relatively modest (but still very good) Winfield has provided big plays across the board which keeps him in the top 10 safety conversation. The only thing holding him back from an annual top 5 designation is his alignment of playing more of a deeper role than fantasy owners are comfortable with, but you certainly won’t see his owners complaining when he’s providing plenty of big plays to keep his PPG up. He provided an excellent floor, with zero games last year under 10 points. Moving forward, look for Winfield to be a moveable chess piece in Bowles’ hybrid defense. He could be a dark horse for an overall safety #1 finish.
Jalen Thompson kinda came out of nowhere in 2021. If you were a wise GM like Kyle and Dan you saw that he’d be playing in the box more and with that came a drastic uptick in production. Even the most optimistic of GMs wouldn’t have predicted Thompson finish as the S8 and did so on 115 total tackles, which led the team. This year, there’s not a whole lot that’s changed outside of Jordan Hicks being swapped out for Zaven Collins. Thompson’s role appears to have remained intact. He’s a surefire top 16 option and there’s speculation he could progress even further as a talent in 2022 with more big plays.
Off: Las Vegas Raiders 13 PPG
PPG: 358
W-L: 15-2
Welcome back to the land of the stacked, Dan-0. From last year’s projection of 355, it’s impressive your squad has improved from last year’s projection. Dan’s squad is the perfect package of star power and depth across all positions. Not a hole to be found, Dan’s arguably built the perfect squad for this fantasy format. The clock is ticking for a fantasy championship. The injuries need to stay away from Cook and JT. If they do, Dan will be hard to beat again. Fingers crossed you’ll avoid that week 14 wild card game again without Taylor.
