Coach: Mike Vrabel 4 PPG
QB: Jalen Hurts 35 PPG
It’s incredible the journey Hurts set himself on as he had to transfer out of Alabama playing behind Tua and backing up Carson Wentz in Philly. He is the model for the cliché of getting 1% better each day. He showcases that if you’re patient and work hard, your time can come. His completion percentage over the last three years: 52% in 2020, 61% in 2021 and 66% in 2022. He also took much better care of the football, with his interception % decreasing from 2.7 in 2020, 2.1 in 2021 and just 1.3 in 2022. From a fantasy perspective, what makes Hurts special is his running ability, as he’s ran for over 700 yards and double digit touchdowns the past two years. Hurts is locked in as a top 5 QB so long as he’s healthy.
RB/WR/TE: RB Nick Chubb 29 PPG, RB Tony Pollard 26 PPG, RB Cam Akers 19 PPG, TE Dallas Goedert 17 PPG, WR Rashod Bateman 12 PPG 6th men: RB Rachaad White 18 PPG, TE Irv Smith 12 PPG, WR Zay Jones 12 PPG, WR Tim Patrick 11 PPG, RB Tyler Allgeier 10 PPG, WR DJ Chark 10 PPG, WR Darnell Mooney 9 PPG, WR Micahel Gallup 8 PPG, WR Rashee Rice 8 PPG, TE Robert Tonyan 8 PPG
It is time to shine for Nick Chubb, who finally has the running back room to himself, in theory. Gone is Karmem Hunt, who for years was an elite backup and siphoned touches from the star running back. There is little opposing defenses can do to stop Chubb when he gets the ball. He has never averaged under 5.0 yards per attempt, which is simply insane given the attention he receives as a runner. Chubb faced 8 men in the box 29% of the time last season, ranking 11th in the NFL. What intrigues me most about Chubb’s upside is his receiving ability this year. If he can bump up his 37 targets from 2022 to around 60, he could see an overall #1 RB/WR/TE type season. This season is setting up nicely for a fantasy explosion. Rivals, you’ve been warned.
Since 2020, it feels like the NFL world has clamored for more Tony Pollard. The Cowboys, being the Cowboys stuck their head in the sand and kept feeding Zeke, likely leaving yards on the table with a more efficient rusher. The keys have now been handed off to the former Memphis Tiger, who is fresh off a career season of 193 carries, 1007 yards and 9 TDs on the ground. Pollard is also prolific as a receiver, with 55 targets, 371 yards and 3 TDs. As it stands now, not much stands in the way of Tony having a RB1 season. He did fracture his fibula in the divisional round against the 49ers, but will be fully recovered for training camp. He’s a dark horse to be the RB1.
2022 was an insane season for Cam Akers, as his fantasy value cratered only for it to take off again like the alien picking up the meteor in the new Wes Anderson film. While Akers hasn’t been anything more than a plodder for the Rams, they have continued to rely on the former 2nd round pick out of Florida state to be their workhorse back, when healthy. Of course, it’s been a long road back since his Achilles tear which ruined any 2021 success, but it seems like he’ll get the first crack at being the featured runner. There are many runners waiting in the wings behind Akers, but as long as he’s healthy and mediocre, he’ll likely be a fine option for our purposes. While he doesn’t bring much to the table as a receiver either, he’s a fine #3 option on a championship team.
Dallas Goedert has felt like a forgotten man for most of his career. He started as a sniped draft pick as the Eagles took him one pick ahead of the Cowboys, who needed a replacement for Jason Witten. Sitting behind Zach Ertz for a couple years prepped him for the role he has today, which is a pretty prolific receiver for a tight end. While his targets will never reach elite heights, Goedert makes the most out of his touches and the bevy of Eagles’ weapons takes attention away for plenty of excellent 1-1 matchups. One thing that can take Goedert’s game to the next level are redzone looks. While he did miss 5 games, he only received 8 redzone targets, which is clear by his 3 measly touchdowns. As long as Goedert is healthy, a career year looms and 300+ points is not out of the question.
I cautiously write about Rashod Bateman, as it feels like we could be heading into another difficult season for the 3rd year pro out of Minnesota. The 1st round pick was expected to be the focal point of a new age Ravens’ passing attack, but as recent reports of Bateman still recovering from foot issues, it feels like the Ravens may have been planning for another potential absence with selecting Zay Flowers in April’s draft. Bateman is all projection, as we’ve only seen him play in 18 total games, starting 9. We’ll see what he can put together with Todd Monkin’s commitment to adding targets to the passing attack. He could produce bye-week filler numbers, with talent for more.
PK: Tyler Bass 9 PPG
PN: Tress Way 11 PPG
DT: Jefferey Simmons 19 PPG
It feels like we sleep on Jeffery Simmons a bit, as we haven’t seen him put together a season that ranks him at the top of the DT rankings. He’s overshadowed by the historical output of Christian Wilkins and the sack numbers of Quinnen Williams/Aaron Donald/DeForest Buckner, but Simmons can be that guy. Last season, he missed a couple of games due to injury, but he still finished with a quality 7 sacks. If he can stay fit for a full year and put together a double-digit sack campaign, he can finish as our DT1.
DE: Preston Smith 15 PPG, Marcus Davenport 14 PPG
For years, Preston Smith has quietly gone about his business and registered his 8-12 sacks seasons. The ideal #2 pass rusher for both real life and fantasy, Smith doesn’t wow you with a catchy name or flashy end-of-year numbers. He’s reliable and produces big play numbers for about half his games when he gets to the QB. One thing to keep a close eye on is his snap share when Rashan Gary and Lukas Van Ness are all 100%. It shouldn’t affect him too much, but his snap share may tick down. The Packers certainly don’t think a decline in production is coming anytime soon, as he’s signed through 2026, his age-34 season.
Marcus Davenport left New Orleans for greener (snowier) pastures in Minnesota. Last year can only be described as an unmitigated disaster, as he regressed from 9 sacks in 2021 to 0 in 14 total games. Benched for UDFA Carl Granderson, it was clear the time the Big Easy had come to an end. After signing a prove-it deal, it’s now or never. Tough projection, but I do think he’ll recover back into the 7-8 sack range and be an unremarkable DE2.
LB: Josey Jewell 20 PPG, Divine Deablo 19 PPG, Alex Anzalone 16 PPG, Anthony Walker 15 PPG
Holie smokes did Josey Jewell ball out when he was on the field last year. While Foye Oluokun received the fanfare as the LB1 for the 2nd straight year, Jewell actually outpaced him with 23.6 PPG. It was a big play block party as Jewell registered 2.5 sacks, 2 FFs, and 2 INTs in just 12 games. His tackle numbers impressed averaging over 10 tackles a game. While newcomer DC Vance Joseph may regress these numbers a bit, Jewell is locked into another LB1 season before he becomes a UDFA.
Alex Anzalone’s career arch feels almost super-villainy, as he was a wildly inefficient starter for the Saints before he joined the Lions and relegated young prospective talent from earning a full-time role. Last year was actually the first time where it felt like he was worth starting, and that still only came with a LB31 finish in PPG. Anzalone is the epitome of a JAG who has value on opportunity alone. That usage isn’t going anywhere with a fresh 3-year contract extension too. Providing next to nothing in the big play department, he profiles as a suitable LB3 with 130(ish) tackles.
Divine Deablo has the dopest name in the NFL and his game packs a punch too. Deablo won the full-time linebacker role for the Raiders last year and proved to be a low-end LB1 before he broke his arm week 8, ending his season. It appears he’ll be manning the green dot again this year, cementing himself as a high-floor option for fantasy purposes. While he doesn’t have much of a history in the big play department, he does have the potential to rack up some interceptions as a former safety in college. This is a big year for Deablo. Fingers crossed he can put a quality 17 games together on a below-average Raiders team.
2022 was pretty much a lost season for Anthony Walker, who tore his quad week 3. Tasked with manning the middle of a Browns defense that looked lost without him, he’s coming back for one more season to provide consistency. While Walker is not someone who has stuffed the stat sheet, it’s all about opportunity at the linebacker position. Over the course of a full 17-game season, we can expect him to wrangle in around 120 tackles and 1-3 big plays. He’s a fine back-end starter with a modest floor.
CB: Jamel Dean 10 PPG, Cameron Bynum 9 PPG
It was surprising that the Bucs were able to keep Jamel Dean, but it keeps some consistency on a team that desperately needs all the help it can get after losing Tom Brady. Dean hasn’t been an IDP factor for much of his career, as he hasn’t produced the counting stats necessary to warrant being a consistent starter. Against pass-heavy teams, Dean is a matchup play.
I’m not quite sure where to rank Cameron Bynum, whose usage is uncertain heading into training camp. With new DC Brian Flores, there’s likely going to be some opportunity mapping taking place with Lewis Cine and Josh Metellus also vying for snaps. Bynum held some cheat code ability as a player lining up at safety quite a bit last year, but not enough to warrant a switch from corner. If he can play most of the snaps, he could be startable.
S: Antonie Winfield 16 PPG, Kyle Dugger 14 PPG (Xavier McKinney 13 PPG)
Antonie Winfield struggled heavily with injuries last year, missing 4 games. That didn’t stop him from being the big play threat we know and love and the safety/slot corner hybrid continued to tear it up while on the field. Winfield’s usage is all over the place as Todd Bowles uses him as a moveable chess piece across his defense. He registered 9 sacks through the first three years in the pros, including 4 last year. He’s shaping up for another top-10 safety season.
I’m a little worried about the rhetoric coming out of New England citing Kyle Dugger becoming the new free safety after Devin McCourty’s retirement. That role is not as conducive to fantasy success as other spots along New England’s defense, but Dugger struggled for consistency to begin with. He’s a better player in real life than for fantasy and wouldn’t expect him to be much more than a fringe top 32 option for 2023.
Off: Dallas Cowboys 15 PPG
X-Factor: Staying healthy after brutal injuries and W/L luck last season.
PPG: 344
W-L: 13-4
Spencer has to be ecstatic to have 2022 behind him, as he certainly lost all his hair after what transpired through the doubleheaders. Every year 1-2 GMs are bit with brutal injuries and points against luck. Spencer’s team is very much ready to compete for a championship again. He has ample firepower at the top of his roster in Jalen Hurts and Nick Chubb, along with Tony Pollard whose ceiling is sky-high. While Spencer could get better at EDGE, he has depth on offense to process a potential deal. 2023 can be the year Spencer makes another deep run. His team is borderline great.
