Coach: Kevin O’Connell 5 PPG
QB: Joe Burrow 33 PPG
Joe Burrow is out to a lightning-fast start to his career, earning a Super Bowl appearance and a narrow AFC championship loss to Patrick Mahomes. The LSU legend started a bit rocky with a torn ACL his rookie year, but that allowed the Bengals to reunite J’Marr Chase with his college QB. That pair is undoubtedly heading into all-time duo territory should nothing happen with injuries or contract disputes. Burrow is a shade below Mahomes in many categories – yards, touchdowns, and rushing yards. He’s the #2 quarterback in the NFL by normal statistical metrics that outline fantasy football. A 35 PPG mark in 2022 may be close to his ceiling, as his 75 attempts, 257 rushing yards, and 5 rushing TDs likely go down a tick. That being said, it’s full steam ahead of one of the greatest QBs in the NFL and we’re just getting started with the greatness that is Joey B.
RB/WR/TE: Justin Jefferson 25 PPG, Ja’Marr Chase 25 PPG, TJ Hockenson 19 PPG, Terry McLaurin 15 PPG, Kadarius Toney 15 PPG 6th men: Gabriel Davis 13 PPG, Dalvin Cook N/A
There’s no question Justin Jefferson is special. He’s one of the few players that can annually slot into the top 10 RB/WR/TE rankings with what mostly houses running backs. (6 of last year’s 10 were RBs) Jefferson is on a torrid pace to being his career, with 1,400, 1,616 and 1,809 receiving yards, but surprisingly only averaging 8.3 TDs a year. For JJ to take the next step and ever compete for the #1 RB/WR/TE spot, he’ll need to bump up his TD numbers, which is a very realistic possibility. For now, his owners will surely take the #1 dynasty WR and enjoy the spoils of what could be an incoming 2,000-yard season.
From the moment J’Marr Chase stepped onto an NFL football field, he’s been a superstar. A top 5 WR connected to a 26-year-old future HOF QB, there are few other more valuable assets in our format through the next three years. There is a case to be made that Chase should be valued higher than Justin Jefferson. Firstly, after 2023, the Vikings could explore a QB change, with Cousins entering the final year of his contract. (He also will be 36 in 2024) Chase almost matched JJ’s redzone targets (27 vs 28 targets inside the 20) despite playing in 5 fewer games. Chase has also exceeded JJ’s TD receptions in back-to-back years. Chase’s targets almost matched JJ’s on a per-game basis (10.3 vs 10.8). It’s a 1a v 1b type situation, but with the TD and QB matchup in mind, give me Chase.
TJ Hockenson’s surprise midseason trade was shocking on many fronts, as he was arguably the best mid-20s tight end in the game, and the Lions dealt him to the NFC North rival Vikings for only the 55th overall pick and a 2024 3rd. (The Vikings also received ’23 and ’24 4th rounders) Hock kept the train rolling on what amounted to an excellent 13-win season, and he finished as a quality top-40 RB/WR/TE. There are few other tight ends that have the upside Hock possesses and it feels like he’s yet to put together a career year. While the target share may not be as large as it would have been without 1st round rookie Jordan Addison, Hock should match his 129 targets from 2022. That puts him in a safe category as a quality #3 player on a championship offense and has upside for much more if he can actualize 19 redzone targets into more than just 6 TDs. (He was 13th in the NFL in redzone targets)
Even with the less-than-ideal circumstances in Washington, Scary Terry has exceeded expectations with his 3rd round pedigree. He’s received over 120 targets and wrangled 1,000 receiving yards in the last three years of his career. While this doesn’t put him in anything more than 4/5 RB/WR/TE territory, it makes him a safe investment with a modest floor. McLaurin will be the go-to option for the winner of the Sam Howell/Jacoby Brissett sweepstakes and there’s upside here if new OC Eric Bieniemy can create touches ala Andy Reid.
The upside that Kadarius Toney possesses is scary to think about. The Chiefs are starving for a receiver to soak up available targets and Toney is one of the most twitched-up receivers in today’s game. While he’s not as refined as a route runner, he’s in the perfect offense that can take his game to the next level. Andy Reid is the master of manufactured play design and that is showcased by their efficiency in the short passing game. Their EPA per play in passes thrown between 1-20 yards is 21.87, with the 2nd ranked team ranked 4.31. (The rest of the NFL is ranked in negatives) The largest issue is his availability to stay healthy as he’s played in 19 games in two years. (Including run to the SB) With reports of injury issues already surfacing, it could be another year of inconsistency for Toney, but when he’s on the field, he should warrant a weekly start.
PK: Harrison Butker 7 PPG
PN: Corey Bojorquez 9 PPG
DT: DeForest Buckner 20 PPG
The moment DeForest Buckner stepped onto the football field, he’s been a real-life and fantasy stud. Buckner’s fantasy prowess was taken to new heights once our DT points boost took effect, resulting in a 20 PPG season. His tackle efficiency is among the league leaders at the position and he’s annually good for 7-10 sacks. He’s been doing this since 2016, folks. Buckner ranked within the top 25 in pressures last season, and 5th from interior defenders. (29 pressures) He’s one of the surest bets at the tackle position and the type of player to build a defense around. At only 29, he has at least 3-4 more quality years remaining.
DE: TJ Watt 25 PPG, Jaelan Phillips 17 PPG (Sam Hubbard 16 PPG)
Last year, I said that TJ Watt was the most valuable asset in the IDP world and was worth 3 1st round picks. After averaging an insane 29 PPG, which ranked among the best QBs and RBs, you can see why the PPG advantage would warrant such a bold claim. While a partially torn pec had him miss 7 games, he returned and averaged only a modest 20 PPG, ranking 6th among EDGEs. It’s unlikely Watt will ever again reach the heights of his 22-sack season again, but he has a high floor in tackles and has exceeded 14 sacks from 2018-2021. He’s a safe bet to hit that mark again, so long as he’s healthy. He’s easily my EDGE1 again heading into 2023 and should return to his usual DPOY self.
Everyone and their mother is predicting a Jaelan Phillips breakout in 2023. After a season where Phillips took a major step forward as a pass rusher, you can see why. He ranked 10th in the NFL with 36 pressures, but only accumulated 7 sacks. (Myles hit 38 pressures and 16 sacks) According to Jon Macri’s Sacks vs expected stat, Phillips ranked 127th in expected sacks last year, with a -4.3 mark. Better sack luck should vault him up the rankings, making him a fringe top-10 option.
LB: Cole Holcomb 16 PPG, Tremaine Edmunds 16 PPG, Zaven Collins 12 PPG
It was a horrifyingly bad season for Pittsburg linebackers, which resulted in a complete overhaul at the position. Cole Holcomb is now expected to be the leading lady for the Steelers, who haven’t found a reliable player since Ryan Shazier’s career-ending injury. Holcomb is your typical mediocre option but provides ample upside for IDP purposes behind a quality defensive line. It’s tough to project anything but modest numbers for Holcomb with last year’s leading Steelers linebacker slotting in as the LB48, Holcomb possesses top 10 upside. He should be good to go to man the middle for at least the next couple of years.
Tremaine Edmunds took 4 years to develop, but he finally posted a quality PFF grade of 79.0 in 2022. This spurred the Bears to give him the 3rd largest contract of guaranteed money to any linebacker in the NFL. Edmunds is locked into the Windy City through the next 4-years, which should provide him consistent IDP value through the middle of the decade. Upside-wise, I’m a bit concerned about being tethered to two quality tackle eaters in TJ Edwards and Jaquon Brisker, but he won’t leave the field. Leaving him as a low-end LB2 feels like a safe bet.
Zaven Collins is making the move to EDGE, which is horrible for his IDP value. Collins will likely be tasked to handle as many snaps as possible. His projection is very much in the air, as he’ll have to prove to the new coaching staff he is a better option than Cameron Thomas, Myjai Sanders and BJ Ojulari. Reports out of OTAs have been positive and Zaven did showcase some pass rush ability in college with 4 sacks during his NCAA DPOY season. 2023 will likely be a make-or-break year for his long-term outlook.
CB: Taron Johnson 12 PPG, Trent McDuffie 11 PPG (Christian Gonzalez 11 PPG)
Taron Johnson has managed to stay near the top of the IDP corner rankings for the last few years for a variety of reasons. He’s an excellent tackler, as he’s exceeded 76 total stops since 2020. The Bills are annually among the best teams in the NFL, which naturally results in teams playing from behind and passing more. Lastly, Taron is good for 7-9 PDs a year and can sprinkle in some sacks on occasion. Taron should man the nickel spot and with the Bills playing most of the time with 3 corners, there shouldn’t be much concern for his viability this season.
Trent McDuffie missed the 1st half of his rookie year, but he proved to be a difference-maker for the Chiefs’ defense. They turned into a top 10 unit after the bye week (ranked 18th pre-bye) and that coincidently was the time McDuffie entered the starting lineup. While there were some dud games, there is optimism he could be a must-start weekly. As we all know L’Jarius Sneed has been one of the best corners for fantasy purposes the last couple of years and McDuffie could threaten to take away some opportunity. We’ll see how it shakes out early in the year, but keep in mind the upside is sky-high.
S: Bobby McCain 11 PPG, Quandre Diggs 10 PPG (Darnell Savage 8 PPG, Alohi Gilman 8 PPG)
Bobby McCain is a complete wild card, but I think he’ll beat out the youngsters in New York to win a starting job at safety. While McCain was signed late into the offseason, beat reporters cited him as the best of the bunch during spring practices. McCain is your run-of-the-mill vet who will produce what is given to him. If he’s a full-time safety, he’ll be a suitable bye-week filler.
Quandre Diggs should not be regarded as a startable safety due to his alignment as a center fielder for the Seahawks. While he provides 4-5 big plays a year, he does not provide enough tackles to be anything more than a bye-week filler. At 31, he still has the goods to be a good real-life player, but it’s his opportunity that holds him back for our game.
Off: Buffalo Bills 15 PPG
X-Factor: Filling out glaring holes at safety and potential depth issues on offense.
PPG: 320
W-L: 10-7
Travis’ AFC Championship appearance brought him within one game away from the ultimate prize, but he still has the core to compete for a championship. In one of the most competitive divisions in the IFL, this will be a tough task, but there are few better ways to build a team than around Joe Burrow, J’Marr Chase, and Justin Jefferson. While running back is now a complete no-show, Travis has proven that’s ok with lacking playmakers at that position the past two years anyway. There are some holes to fill, but this team should be right back to competing again.
