Coach: John Harbaugh 5 PPG
QB: Justin Herbert 31 PPG
It was an odd year for Justin Herbert, who took a large step back as a fantasy quarterback. In 2021, Herbs threw for over 5,000 yards and 38 TDs, showcasing elite upside that few QBs possess. While the passing yards mostly remained elite, the touchdowns regressed, as did the rushing output, keeping him on the outside of the top 10 passers. His rushing decrease leaves some question marks about his upside, because many of the young QBs that are coming up the ranks with him, (Mahomes, Allen and Burrow) all deliver a decent amount on the ground. With new OC Kellen Moore expected to elevate the passing attack, I expect Herbert to return to his elite fantasy QB days, but it’s not out of the realm of outcomes he stays as a serviceable, but not elite option. (Like Kirk Cousins)
RB/WR/TE: Rhamondre Stevenson 25 PPG, Stefon Diggs 21 PPG, Khalil Herbert 18 PPG, Jahmyr Gibbs 17 PPG, Tee Higgins 16 PPG 6th men: Kyle Pitts 16 PPG, Michael Pittman 15 PPG, Nico Collins 13 PPG, Terrace Marshall 12 PPG
This could change at a moment’s notice, but Rhamondre Stevenson has a shot to finish as the #1 RB/WR/TE. While he’s largely split time with Damien Harris the past two years, he’s long gone, joining division rival Buffalo. Stevenson has the backfield to himself, but the Patriots have continuously worked out veteran backs to add to their backfield. As it stands, the 3rd year back out of Oklahoma has a fantastic opportunity ahead of him, as he has showcased an elite profile. He averaged 5.0 yards per attempt last year on 210 carriers and received an eye-popping 88 targets. What’s most encouraging about a massive 2023 is he only scored 6 TDs last year, which is low for his usage. Very few people are talking about Stevenson being one of the best buys of the fantasy season. A top 5 runner is almost a lock as it stands today.
Tethered to one of the best QBs in the NFL, Stefon Diggs continues to be a fantasy beast. Last year saw him finish 5th in total targets, 4th in receptions, 5th in receiving yards, and 5th in TDs. In a pass-happy offense, he’s feasted the moment he stepped into Buffalo. Diggs remains at the peak of his power, but there have been rumblings of discontent during the offseason, as he’s always been an erratic personality. While the Bills’ offense would likely take a major step back without him, he’s expected to see one of the highest volume of targets again in 2023. While expectations for the Bills have regressed, don’t expect Diggs to.
The hoes are coming for Khalil Herbert, but the Bears felt comfortable enough in him to let their veteran David Montgomery walk to the division rival Detroit Lions. There’s obviously a good reason for that, as he averaged a robust 5.7 yards per attempt mark, albeit on a limited 129 touches. While he’s offered next to nothing as a receiver through two years, it’s more likely he cedes opportunity there to one of the challengers, particularly the elite pass protector in Rochon Johnson. Herbert is in a bit of a precarious position, as Dont’a Foreman is a similar type back and could take away opportunity if Herbert struggles. It’s possible this turns into a very ugly timeshare, but if Herbert continues to average around 5.0 yards per carry, the Bears would be silly to not dramatically increase his usage.
Jahmyr Gibbs had an excellent college football career, culminating in a stellar final season at Alabama where he pumped up his stats across the board. On 151 carries, Gibbs averaged 6.1 yards per attempt while reeling in 44 receptions for an additional 444 yards. That is around what we should expect for his NFL outlook, around 12-13 carries, with 4-5 receptions per game. He slots perfectly into what the Detroit Lions like to do with their backfield, having a more physical back able to run between the tackles, while a more agile weapon can be used in all kinds of ways in the passing game. OC Ben Johnson made a name for himself as a skillful passing game coordinator before taking over as OC last season. He 1000% has a plan on how to get the most out of Gibbs. What Gibbs struggles with is carries between the tackles and it would be surprising if the Lions opted to utilize him in that way. (Alabama and Georgia Tech did not.) While that limits his upside a bit, he still slots in as one of the best offensive weapons in the NFL and the upside is immense, pending opportunity. As a rookie, he’s a fine #3 on a playoff-caliber offense.
Arguably the best #2 receiver in the NFL, Tee Higgins is still an excellent IFL asset. Fresh off his 3rd straight year of over 100 targets, he’s a safe projection to match what he’s done. There is no easier projection arguably, as he’s hit 107, 110, and 110 targets in the first three seasons. He’s even closely matched his TD totals to boot. Playing second fiddle to one of the best QB/WR combos of our generation, Higgins will never be an elite asset in his current situation, but he is still a more than capable as a back-end starter.
PK: Jason Myers 9 PPG
PN: Jake Camarda 11 PPG
DT: Jonathan Allen 19 PPG, Christian Wilkins 18 PPG
The DT scoring boost elevated DTs into value we’ve never seen before and Jonathan Allen has ascended into 300+ territory. An annual threat for double-digit sacks and a high-floor tackler for an interior lineman, he’s going to be a top 5 asset for the foreseeable future. Allen signed a long-term deal with the Commanders and asked to anchor an excellent defensive line. At only 26, he is just entering his prime and if he takes a step forward as a pass rusher, he could eventually finish at the DT1.
Christian Wilkins’ historic run as a tackler is one for the history books. In back-to-back years he’s notched the highest tackling totals ever for a defensive tackle. Now in a new scheme, I am very hesitant to keep him at his lofty 22 PPG from last season, but I do not think he’s going to eviscerate like Thanos snapped his fingers. Last season was just absurd, as the man totaled 101 stops, 2 forced fumbles and 3 sacks. Wilkins will never be a sack artist, but if he can keep his tackle numbers even 70% from his totals from last year, he’ll be good to go as an elite option.
DE: Nick Bosa 23 PPG, Aiden Hutchinson 17 PPG
It’s been nothing but elite seasons from Nick Bosa (when he was healthy) the second he entered the league as the 2nd overall pick in 2019. Last year was one of the best pass-rushing seasons of all time, with 18 total sacks and quietly finishing first in pressures with 56. At only 25, Nick Bosa is the EDGE1 and outside of his torn ACL, has shown no sign of being anything but a future Hall of Famer. Get ready for another big season.
Rookie year be damned, Aiden Hutchinson wanted to show he was one of the best pass rushers in the NFL. He did just that, finishing 22nd in pressures while not missing a game, delivering 9 sacks, 3 INTs and 52 total tackles. (Better than Nick Bosa’s rookie season btw) Hutch has a more talented supporting cast around him and another year of progression in the NFL could very well show why he’s an absolute beastly player. A modest progression into 10-12 sack territory is the expectation now and he’s largely expected to be the best Lions’ defensive player. I’d like to see him be more consistent in executing his sack production before ascending into elite territory.
LB: Devin White 19 PPG, Patrick Queen 16 PPG, Quay Walker 15 PPG
It’s been quite the wild ride for Devin White recently, whose lack of effort was called out by Bucs’ all-time great Warren Sapp. White has not developed as expected in Tampa, as his athletic ability makes him ripe for potential, but he has showcased an extreme liability in coverage. He is a perfect backer in run support and to rush the passer, but unfortunately, it does not look like he will be able to be a fully-rounded player. That being said, his current opportunity keeps him locked into a top 16 player, especially if he can keep his ample big play ability up. The Bucs are aware of his strengths and love to have White rush the QB. His 19 sacks through his four years of play showcase this. Lock him in as an elite IDP asset until his role changes.
Patrick Queen may not have been given the 5th year option in Baltimore, but that doesn’t change his opportunity for this season at least. It took three years, but he finally developed into a league-average backer, but it was after the Ravens traded for Roquan Smith. It’s clear the Ravens don’t have faith in a long-term role for him on the team and are comfortable moving on after selecting Trenton Simpson in last year’s draft. Queen will comfortably slot into a solid LB2 this year for fantasy purposes and hopefully continues his big-play prowess from last year. (5 sacks, 1 FF and 2 INTs)
Ladies and gents, we are officially watching if Quay Walker can in fact be better than Bijan Robinson through the course of their careers. (Thanks Vic, we’ve had to endure an insufferable amount of Barry posting about Bijan b/c of your claim.) Walker may have been a bit of a bonehead being ejected twice his rookie year, but he showcased a quality skillset that forced the Packers to change their scheme to have nearly two full-time linebackers. Walker delivers for his fantasy owners, with over 140 total tackles, 3 forced fumbles, and a sack. Granted, DeVondre missed a month, but he was still serviceable when Campbell was in the lineup. Quay’s long-term outlook is solid, but it could take a couple of years until we see him reach elite IDP heights. He’s best viewed as a back-end option until proven otherwise due to opportunity.
CB: Kenny Moore 12 PPG, Deonte Banks 11 PPG
Captain Kenny Moore may never be what he once was as an elite IDP corner, but he still delivered serviceable numbers last year in Gus Bradley’s scheme. His tackles were still elite for the position, but his big plays dried up. If Moore can recover some of those INTs from years past, he could reclaim that status as a top 5 corner. I’d start him every week just to see what happens.
Deonte Banks is gonna start full-time in week 1 for a weak corner room for the Giants and that will likely serve him well for fantasy purposes. Banks delivered modest numbers at Maryland so don’t expect him to translate into a productive contributor off the bat, especially in the big play area when he had two career INTs. However, I’d give him some shots in pass-happy game scripts and see if he’s targeted often.
S: Minkah Fitzpatrick 15 PPG, Jeremy Chinn 14 PPG
After the first two seasons in Miami, you wouldn’t have expected Minkah Fitzpatrick to be a viable fantasy asset. That changed after the trade to Pittsburgh when his tackles took a major step forward, as did his big plays. They have, however, come in different years, where last year he delivered 6 INTs to keep his PPG up, while in 2021, he delivered a robust 120 total tackle season for a safety. I worry we can’t see much more than a 16 PPG output from his free safety spot in Pittsburgh’s defense, but hopefully, they put their best secondary piece in every opportunity to make plays. I would still slot him in my lineups every week to see what happens, tho.
Jeremy Chinn’s value is a bit in flux with new DC Ejero Evero taking over and Von Bell entering the fold. Chinn has been a very serviceable safety thus far, but we need to wait and see before we can evaluate him as a startable asset moving forward. It’s likely Chinn will be just fine in Evero’s defense, but Bell and Woods may get the opportunity over him. (The Panthers will likely use 3 safeties plenty, but one will likely be a tough start.) Chinn’s skill set is best utilized closer to the line of scrimmage, where Xavier Woods may be the designated free. We’ll see how it shakes out, but he’s a tough projection as it stands now.
Off: New York Jets 11 PPG
PPG: 343
X-Factor: Making the right decisions to actually fulfill this team’s potential in the playoffs.
W-L: 12-5
Craig has built an excellent team through the last few years, but it’s now time to fulfill its potential. With talent across the roster and picks to fill holes as they pop up, there’s nothing to stop him from a championship run. What I worry about Craig is does he have the capability to know how to build a team that can win 3-4 straight weeks in the postseason. It takes a particular strategy of roster building to maximize your chances, and he’s yet to make the moves necessary to beat the likes of the best in the IFL. This year, he must take that next step.
