Coach: Brandon Staley 5 PPG
QB: Dak Prescott 28 PPG
It was a horrible season of regression for Dak Prescott, who suffered a fractured thumb in week 1 and missed the next 5 games. Once he returned, he was not the quality player we have grown accustomed. Two of the last three years have largely been washes from a fantasy perspective, as he suffered a nasty fractured ankle that ended his 2020 season which started on a torrid pace. That has largely zapped his rushing upside and resulted in a tumble down the fantasy rankings. Dak likely can’t be relied upon to be anything more than a low-end QB1 and if he doesn’t fix his turnover issues from last season, (23/15 TD/INT ratio) there will be whispers a replacement may need to be in order. Mike McCarthy has usurped one of the best play callers in the NFL, almost certainly leading to a disappointing season in Dallas. In addition, McCarthy stated early in the offseason he’d like a greater commitment to the run game, hence the release of former OC Kellen Moore and signing of the archaic mind Brian Schottenheimer. (This name should really scare you if you remember the pathetic playcalling he put together in Seattle from 2018-2021) Some folks are expecting a neutral or positive outcome with this offense compared to 2022. I am not one of those people. Godspeed Dallas fans.
RB/WR/TE: Nick Chubb 29 PPG, TJ Hockenson 19 PPG, JK Dobbins 17 PPG, David Montgomery 17 PPG, George Kittle 16 PPG 6th men: Zach Ertz 15 PPG, DJ Moore 14 PPG, Roschon Johnson 13 PPG, Cordarrelle Patterson 10 PPG, DeVante Parker 9 PPG
It is time to shine for Nick Chubb, who finally has the running back room to himself, in theory. Gone is Karmem Hunt, who for years was an elite backup and siphoned touches from the star running back. There is little opposing defenses can do to stop Chubb when he gets the ball. He has never averaged under 5.0 yards per attempt, which is simply insane given the attention he receives as a runner. Chubb faced 8 men in the box 29% of the time last season, ranking 11th in the NFL. What intrigues me most about Chubb’s upside is his receiving ability this year. If he can bump up his 37 targets from 2022 to around 60, he could see an overall #1 RB/WR/TE type season. This season is setting up nicely for a fantasy explosion. Rivals, you’ve been warned.
Since 2020, it feels like the NFL world has clamored for more Tony Pollard. The Cowboys, being the Cowboys stuck their head in the sand and kept feeding Zeke, likely leaving yards on the table with a more efficient rusher. The keys have now been handed off to the former Memphis Tiger, who is fresh off a career season of 193 carries, 1007 yards and 9 TDs on the ground. Pollard is also prolific as a receiver, with 55 targets, 371 yards and 3 TDs. As it stands now, not much stands in the way of Tony having a RB1 season. He did fracture his fibula in the divisional round against the 49ers, but will be fully recovered for training camp. He’s a dark horse to be the RB1.
TJ Hockenson’s surprise midseason trade was shocking on many fronts, as he was arguably the best mid-20s tight end in the game, and the Lions dealt him to the NFC North rival Vikings for only the 55th overall pick and a 2024 3rd. (The Vikings also received ’23 and ’24 4th rounders) Hock kept the train rolling on what amounted to an excellent 13-win season, and he finished as a quality top-40 RB/WR/TE. There are few other tight ends that have the upside Hock possesses and it feels like he’s yet to put together a career year. While the target share may not be as large as it would have been without 1st round rookie Jordan Addison, Hock should match his 129 targets from 2022. That puts him in a safe category as a quality #3 player on a championship offense and has upside for much more if he can actualize 19 redzone targets into more than just 6 TDs. (He was 13th in the NFL in redzone targets)
It’s been a tragic start to JK Dobbins’ career, who entered the NFL with extraordinarily high expectations after a storied career at Ohio State. Entering a solid landing spot on paper that featured a run-heavy attack, Dobbins was expected to quickly be featured in the Ravens’ offense. Instead, he started one game his rookie year and only recorded 134 attempts and only received 24 targets. The following season ended before it began with a brutal knee injury that cost him half of 2022 as well. Dobbins all of a sudden is entering his 4th and potentially final season with the Ravens, who are uncommitted to the often-injured back. While he has been extremely efficient with his touches, he’s offered nothing in the passing game up to this point as well. All of this being said, it finally appears 2023 is the year it should come together and we could finally get a full season. It’s also possible he is featured in the passing game for the first time with offensive coordinator Todd Monken taking over. There is upside greater than 17 PPG, but it’ll likely be a timeshare again with Gus Edwards. (and god knows who else)
It was a season of disappointment for David Montgomery from a fantasy perspective, who saw career lows in rushing yards and touchdowns. Let’s be clear about Monty, he’s nothing more than a mediocre runner. He takes what’s given to him and is a solid all-around player. In Chicago, he was involved in all facets of the game, including anywhere from 25-54 receptions annually. As a runner, he left a bit to be desired, never eclipsing 4.3 yards per attempt. Now in Detroit and given a top 12 running back contract (3 years 18 million), it’s possible we see him slide right into the old Jamaal Williams role. I’ve wavered a bit on this notion, given the recent comments of Brad Holmes lauding Monty’s receiving prowess. I think the Lions’ timeshare is very much up in the air depending on how Monty and Gibbs fare at various points in the season. If I had to guess right now, Monty is locked in for most of the between-the-tackles rushes as that’s not Gibbs’ game. Gibbs is such a strong receiver of the football and succeeds when in space. He was the 12th overall pick, however, and should be given every opportunity to succeed. For now, Monty is a tough projection. Jamaal had 262 carries, 17 TDs, but only 12 receptions. I think the carries will hover around 230, the receptions will be up, but the rushing TDs won’t be nearly as high. That’ ‘s still good for a solid 250-point season.
When Brock Purdy took over for the 9ers, George Kittle came to life. Kittle scored 7 TDs in his last four games, setting a career high by 5 TDs despite missing the first two weeks of the season. It’s tough to sit here and say there won’t be regression as he’s never been much of a TD scorer through his career. The red zone targets don’t point to someone who will keep those TD numbers up either, with only 10, ranking 67th. Kittle will still be a service #4 RB/WR/TE, with a case to be made this is an under projection if the 9ers can keep their top 3 offense ways going in 2023.
PK: Greg Joseph 7 PPG
PN: Johnny Hekker 11 PPG
DT: Jefferey Simmons 19 PPG, BJ Hill 16 PPG
It feels like we sleep on Jeffery Simmons a bit, as we haven’t seen him put together a season that ranks him at the top of the DT rankings. He’s overshadowed by the historical output of Christian Wilkins and the sack numbers of Quinnen Williams/Aaron Donald/DeForest Buckner, but Simmons can be that guy. Last season, he missed a couple of games due to injury, but he still finished with a quality 7 sacks. If he can stay fit for a full year and put together a double-digit sack campaign, he can finish as our DT1.
BJ Hill was the DT12 and dropped a quality 241-point season in 2022. Pressure-wise, he was pretty good too for an interior defender with 16. While Hill has never been a high tackle nor high sack contributor, it appears he’s taken a leap into the annual top-16 range with the Bengals. He’s been a quality defender for a few years now and at only 28, he’s a safe bet to replicate another low-end DT1 season.
DE: Micah Parsons 21 PPG, Za’Darius Smith 16 PPG
The moment Parsons stepped onto the field, he’s been a superstar. It was hardly a surprise either, as he was a top 5 IFL draft pick, but it’s still incredible to see the Day 1 HOF trajectory he’s been on. Parsons’ rookie season was unreal and almost guaranteed to regress with his position usage changing, but the position change to EDGE kept him in an elite PPG number. With only 12 sacks last season, it’s almost guaranteed we haven’t seen the best of Micah Parsons. That’s a scary thought because if he gets home more often this year, he could realistically his 15-16 sacks and end up as the EDGE1.
After taking a year off due to injury, Za’Darius had another excellent season, finishing 9th in total pressures and delivering 10 sacks. He took a step back in the total tackle department from his previous years in Green Bay, but hopefully, that can return with a change of scenery in Cleveland. Myles Garrett has been starving for a quality EDGE opposite of him to take attention away and Z’Darius is the ideal mercenary to bring onto the team. So long as the back issues stay far away, Smith is an ideal EDGE2 for your fantasy team.
LB: Shaq Thompson 16 PPG, Anthony Walker 15 PPG, Ja’Whaun Bentley 15 PPG
Shaq Thompson’s value is a bit in flux with the new DC Ejero Evero in town. Last year, his scheme didn’t usually provide two full-time LBers and Thompson is not nearly as efficient as Alex Singleton is with his opportunities. It appears Thompson will handle the playcalling duties, with Luvu providing off-ball support. This being said, Thompson is not a big play producer, so any slip of opportunity will significantly affect him. He is firmly in the LB2 tier.
2022 was pretty much a lost season for Anthony Walker, who tore his quad week 3. Tasked with manning the middle of a Browns defense that looked lost without him, he’s coming back for one more season to provide consistency. While Walker is not someone who has stuffed the stat sheet, it’s all about opportunity at the linebacker position. Over the course of a full 17-game season, we can expect him to wrangle in around 120 tackles and 1-3 big plays. He’s a fine back-end starter with a modest floor.
Ja’Whaun Bentley just signed a 2-year $18.75 million extension, showcasing he is a pillar of a quality New England defense. For IDP, he’s a bit of a tough play as he often isn’t on the field for full-time snaps. Perhaps his snap shares bump up after the extension, but it’s doubtful. Bentley is an ideal LB3 with 120 total tackles and provides a few big plays to boot. He’ll likely flirt around the top 32 for the next few years.
CB: Charvarius Ward 11 PPG, ??? 10 PPG (I don’t see a starter behind Ward)
I love some corners that are in a situation to wrangle up tackles. Charvarius Ward did exactly that in his first year with the 9ers, with an incredible 86 total stops. While he’s never been one for big plays, the tackles keep him within the startable assets within the position. If he can bump up his big plays a bit, there is some serious PPG potential.
S: Donovan Wilson 15 PPG, Julian Love 10 PPG
Donovan Wilson is one of the most underrated safeties for IDP purposes. Locked into a fresh multi-year deal, Wilson provided stability on their back end when Kearse missed time and when Hooker occasionally struggled. The Cowboys love their 3-safety looks and moving their pieces around their defense. Wilson recorded a surprising 5 sacks last season, which almost certainly won’t be replicated. That being said, playing over 50% of his snaps in the box or in the slot bodes well for long-term success.
Julian Love enters a new situation in Seattle after finally getting a chance to play full-time snaps as a Giant. Surprisingly, they didn’t pony up to give him a deal, leaving a hole in their secondary. With Quandre Diggs and Jamal Adams entrenched as starters, I’m not sure what Love’s long-term fantasy value looks like. Adams still is recovering from injury as is Jordyn Brooks, so it’s likely Love benefits from playing over one of those two guys. Seattle has historically only played two full-time safeties, so it may be difficult for Love to see the field when everyone is healthy. They gave him a pretty good deal, however, so the expectation is he should play at least part-time snaps.
Off: New Orleans Saints 11 PPG
X-Factor: Quickly shoring up some back-end spots on the defense by jettisoning offensive depth.
PPG: 324
W-L: 9-8
Brian had a wild offseason, as he brought in Nick Chubb from an eventful RFA period. This was unexpected, however, but it did result in him landing one of the best RB/WR/TEs heading into the 2023 season. The rest of the offense is solid and can outperform pre-season projections if they stay fit and finally live up to their potential. (Looking at you, Dobbins.) Defensively, it’s led by Micah Parsons and Jeffery Simmons, but this defense is down bad. There is little to no depth to speak of in the back seven and that is a bit surprising with Brian. Overall, this team has the opportunity to improve in some areas, but unless it improves across the back end, this year is likely destined to cap out again in a quick wild card exit.
