Coach: Doug Pederson 5 PPG
QB: Aaron Rodgers 30 PPG
Aaron Rodgers’ regressed into a mediocre QB after back-to-back MVP seasons, which was shocking even after losing Devante Adams. The soon-to-be 40-year-old QB generally had protected the football and could be proficient at any brand of football needed for his team to succeed. He had a tailor-made excuse about the talent around him, but that is no longer the case in New York. The Jets, after generations of looking for quality offensive talent seem to have finally found two in Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall. (Lavernanues Coles is the last Jet who had any long-term staying power at receiver, 2008. Curtis Martin at running back, 2005.) Rodgers joins the fold to supplement a team ready to potentially contend in a stacked AFC, with young QBs in every division fighting for the right to represent the conference. Rodgers unwisely left the talent-deficient NFC for what may end up being a difficult conference to even make the playoffs. He needs to fix many aspects of his game if he’s truly ready to step back into the conversation as one of the best and that starts with taking care of the football — especially if he can’t produce touchdowns with the likes of Mahomes or Allen. His 26/12 TD/INT ratio will no longer cut it. If he can pass for over 4,000 yards again like he had the prior 4 years, that would be a nice touch too. Overall, I think Rodgers will return to form as one of the best in the game, but there is a wide range of outcomes here that makes me uncomfortable to make him my set-it-and-forget-it fantasy starter.
RB/WR/TE: Tyreek Hill 25 PPG, Joe Mixon 24 PPG, Khalil Herbert 18 PPG, Travis Etienne 17 PPG, Pat Freiermuth 17 PPG 6th men: Tyjae Spears 11 PPG, Quentin Johnston 11 PPG, DJ Chark 10 PPG
Most people expected Tyreek Hill to take a step back after exiting the most prolific offense in modern NFL history, but alas, exactly the opposite happened. By almost 200 yards, The Cheetah exceeded his receiving yard season-high and also set career bests in receptions (119) and targets (170). Tyreek did say he left Kansas City for more volume, so perhaps in hindsight, we should have paid closer attention. One thing we should keep an eye on is his long-term future, as he stated on a podcast he’ll only be playing for another two years. Enjoy the most electric player in the NFL while you can, cause it may be ending sooner than you think. Fire him up as a top 5 WR and elite #2 for a championship offense.
From potential legal trouble to rumors of being released from the Bengals, the offseason was quite turbulent for Joe Mixon. We thankfully survived and his value remains intact, at least for one more year. All signs point to another season of heavy usage for the 27-year-old, as the Bengals hardly added any talent outside of 5th-round pick Chase Brown. (They also let go of Samaje Perine.) Averaging only 3.9 yards per attempt obviously petered out his shine as a quality rusher a bit, but he has enough runway as a quality runner to see if he has some juice left for a renaissance. Mixon received career-high usage as a receiver in 2022, with 74 targets and 60 receptions. If that continues, he’s primed to be a top-16 RB/WR/TE again.
The hoes are coming for Khalil Herbert, but the Bears felt comfortable enough in him to let their veteran David Montgomery walk to the division rival Detroit Lions. There’s obviously a good reason for that, as he averaged a robust 5.7 yards per attempt mark, albeit on a limited 129 touches. While he’s offered next to nothing as a receiver through two years, it’s more likely he cedes opportunity there to one of the challengers, particularly the elite pass protector in Rochon Johnson. Herbert is in a bit of a precarious position, as Dont’a Foreman is a similar type back and could take away opportunity if Herbert struggles. It’s possible this turns into a very ugly timeshare, but if Herbert continues to average around 5.0 yards per carry, the Bears would be silly to not dramatically increase his usage.
Travis Etienne’s getting a little bit of heat, but it certainly shouldn’t be for his 2022 stats. On a quality 220 carries, ETN averaged 5.1 YPA, and 7.0 yards per reception, albeit on only 2.1 receptions a game. Especially with his prowess in the receiving game in college, his pathetic 35 receptions have ample room for growth, especially with between-the-tackles mauler Tank Bigsby entering the fold. There’s been talk of scaling back ETN’s usage, and their backfield will certainly be a timeshare. We’ve seen countless timeshares be successful in quality offenses, but there’s generally a lead back. That is very likely to be the 3rd year pro out of Clemson, but his PPG likely will go down a touch, especially if we don’t see a bump in receptions. I worry about red zone usage as well. While there are red flags with his upside, he should be just fine as a solid #3 RB/WR/TE.
Good ol’ Patty Muth has been tittering on the fringe of elite TE status for a couple of years. In his rookie season, he posted 7 tuddies on only 79 targets, proving a reliable redzone threat. He took a significant step back in that department with rookie Kenny Pickett as QB, but did see his targets increase to 98 despite missing a game. Enter 2023 and the hope is he can put both together and actualize as the Steelers’ #2 receiving weapon behind Diontae Johnson. In our TE premium league, a 100+ target tight end is a weekly must-start, as there are only 5(ish) annually who achieve this feat. It appears Freiermuth is about to enter this territory, so giddy up for his prime to begin.
PK: Brett Maher 8 PPG
PN: Bryce Baringer 10 PPG
DT: David Onyemata 12 PPG
Been a bit of a wild couple of years for the Canadian David Onyemata, who missed a good chunk of the 2021 year due to a PED suspension. 2022 started off slow as well, but he turned on the jets to end the year, scoring over 10 PPG from week 8 on. Now in Atlanta following Ryan Nielsen, he’ll likely have a similar role as a near full-time DT. That’ll keep him in the fringe weekly starter tier, but expecting anything more than top 20(ish) production is asking for trouble.
DE: Harold Landry 18 PPG, Kayvon Thibodeaux 17 PPG
Harold Landry tore his ACL before the season began, but do not forget about his breakout 12-sack campaign from 2021. Landry is one of the best pass rushers in the NFL and has almost been forgotten about after the year off. Outside of his elite pass-rushing prowess (7th in pressures in 2021), is his sky-high tackle numbers, which annually have hovered around 70. That type of formula is in the TJ Watt mold. It may take some time for Landry to get his sea legs under him, but he’s one of the least talked about top 10 EDGEs in our game.
Kayvon Thibodeaux predictably started out of the gates slow due to missing the first two games, but holy tits did we see his potential in his week 15 Primetime game against the Commanders, where he dropped a monster 57.85 points. Through the next two weeks, he soared with an additional 20 and 27-point effort. Expected to be the #1 EDGE along one of the best defensive lines in the NFL, if Thibs can avoid injury, he could quickly break out as one of the elite pass rushers in today’s game. A fringe top-10 season is on the horizon, with upside for more.
LB: TJ Edwards 20 PPG, Zaire Franklin 16 PPG, Jamin Davis 14 PPG
TJ Edwards is a fantastic story as a UDFA out of Wisconsin who developed into a quality NFL linebacker. Certainly compared to his new teammate Tremaine Edmunds, however, he’s grossly underpaid. (Edmunds’ AAV is $18 mil, versus Edwards’ $6.5) It’s very possible if not probable Edwards outproduces Edmunds as he’s been the more productive backer over the course of his career. It appears Edwards will slide right into the MIKE spot and play-caller of this defense. Chicago provided Roquan Smith with years of excellent IDP campaigns and Edwards has the chance to take that role and run with it. While there is a bit of volatility here due to a new situation, give me Edwards to finish again as a top 10 producer.
Disappointing developments are coming out of training camp for Jamin Davis, as it looks like Cody Barton will be wearing the green dot for the Commanders this year. The defense used 1 linebacker quite a bit last season, relegating Davis to more of an LB3 for fantasy. Sadly, it looks like that’s the way things are heading again for 2023. He’s certainly one to keep a close eye on, but it doesn’t appear we’re going to see an opportunity increase as we were expecting. Instead, it will be Cody Barton (holie sheet).
Zaire Franklin jumped right into the starting lineup for Shaq Leonard and never looked back. Arguably THE IDP breakout of last season, Franklin finished as the LB4, with 166 total tackles, 3 forced fumbles and 3 sacks. With Leonard now back in the fold, I think it’s safe to say there will be a steep regression, but we’ve seen two LBers eat together before. He will still be a startable option, but he’s more of a top 32 guy with Shaq in the lineup.
CB: Jeff Okudah 10 PPG, ??? 9 PPG
After a tremulous start to his prestigious career which included a torn Achilles and a 3rd overall NFL draft selection, Jeff Okudah was shipped off to the Atlanta Falcons for a bag of chips and a ham sando. Since joining Atlanta, he’s penciled into a starting job but has barely practiced due to injury. I wouldn’t want to rely on him for any sort of fantasy production moving forward, but if he can show that he’s a full-time corner, perhaps he’ll be startable.
S: Kyle Dugger 14 PPG, Jevon Holland 14 PPG, Jessie Bates 12 PPG
I’m a little worried about the rhetoric coming out of New England citing Kyle Dugger becoming the new free safety after Devin McCourty’s retirement. That role is not as conducive to fantasy success as other spots along New England’s defense, but Dugger struggled for consistency to begin with. He’s a better player in real life than for fantasy and wouldn’t expect him to be much more than a fringe top 32 option for 2023.
Jevon Holland displayed a solid 2nd season as the Dolphins’ free safety and now will be deployed in a scheme that made Justin Simmons an annual S2. Last year, Holland posted 96 total tackles, 2 INTs, 1 forced fumble, and 1 sack, to go along with 7 PDs. We probably shouldn’t expect his numbers to differ too much, but it’s in the realm of possibility he has a full-on IDP breakout as an elite real-life NFL player. For now, he’ll slide in as a high-end S2.
Jessie Bates received one of the largest free agency deals this offseason, signing a 4-year 64 million contract with the Falcons. Sadly, this role will not be conducive to fantasy success and will likely be relegated to being a bye-week filler. Bates’ early career tackle numbers were indicative of developing linebackers ahead of him in Cincinnati. With incoming DC Ryan Nielsen coming in from New Orleans, Bates should fit right in line with production similar to Marcus Maye/Tyrann Mathieu from 2022.
Off: Jacksonville Jaguars 14 PPG
X-Factor: Rounding out the edges a bit to maximize the roster’s potential.
PPG: 324
W-L: 7-10
Tiff has built a pretty damn good team that could certainly vie for a playoff spot. Tyreek Hill and Joe Mixon profile as two star-studs at the top of the offense, with plenty of youngsters like ETN, Herbs, Spears, Quentin Johnston, and Muth primed for a shot at stardom. The weakness of this roster is some of the secondary positions, like DT, CB, and the back-end of the LBer position. That stems from poor contract management like investing in a $40 million Mixon and $16 million Aaron Rodgers. This contract mismanagement is something Tiff has been notorious for for years and holds her back from taking the next step as a GM. For 2023, this roster can do some damage in what will be a very fun NFC East race. Keep an eye on this underrated squad.
