Coach: Sean Payton 4 PPG
QB: Justin Herbert 31 PPG
It was an odd year for Justin Herbert, who took a large step back as a fantasy quarterback. In 2021, Herbs threw for over 5,000 yards and 38 TDs, showcasing elite upside that few QBs possess. While the passing yards mostly remained elite, the touchdowns regressed, as did the rushing output, keeping him on the outside of the top 10 passers. His rushing decrease leaves some question marks about his upside, because many of the young QBs that are coming up the ranks with him, (Mahomes, Allen and Burrow) all deliver a decent amount on the ground. With new OC Kellen Moore expected to elevate the passing attack, I expect Herbert to return to his elite fantasy QB days, but it’s not out of the realm of outcomes he stays as a serviceable, but not elite option. (Like Kirk Cousins)
RB/WR/TE: Mark Andrews 23 PPG, Stefon Diggs 21 PPG, Kenneth Walker 18 PPG, James Cook 17 PPG, Kadarius Toney 15 PPG 6th men: Jerry Jeudy 15 PPG, Tyler Lockett 15 PPG, Brandin Cooks 14 PPG, Tyler Boyd 12 PPG
2022 was a wildly inconsistent season for Mark Andrews, who has turned into one of the elite players in the IFL. Still in his mid-20s, it’s expected that Andrews will continue to be Lamar’s #1 target for the foreseeable future. With pass-happy OC Todd Monken expected to progress the Ravens’ passing game forward, this could assist with Andrews’ production. Aversely, there’s a bit of uncertainty with Andrews’ usage with a fully healthy Bateman, OBJ, and 1st round rookie Zay Flowers, but the offense should continue to run through the middle of the field. Will the Ravens truly stop being one of the most run-heavy teams in the NFL with their current makeup? Time will tell. Thankfully, it would be surprising if he’s not soaking up 125+ targets and 7+ touchdowns over the course of a full season.
Tethered to one of the best QBs in the NFL, Stefon Diggs continues to be a fantasy beast. Last year saw him finish 5th in total targets, 4th in receptions, 5th in receiving yards, and 5th in TDs. In a pass-happy offense, he’s feasted the moment he stepped into Buffalo. Diggs remains at the peak of his power, but there have been rumblings of discontent during the offseason, as he’s always been an erratic personality. While the Bills’ offense would likely take a major step back without him, he’s expected to see one of the highest volume of targets again in 2023. While expectations for the Bills have regressed, don’t expect Diggs to.
It took a little over a month, but Kenneth Walker took over the starting job in Seattle after the annual season-ending injury to Rashaad Penny. He turned into an elite fantasy asset the rest of the way forward averaging 23.8 PPG as the centerpiece of the Seahawks’ offense. K9 finished 2nd in the ROTY voting with a 4.6 yards per attempt on 228 carries, scoring 9 times. Walker appeared to be a future workhorse on an ascending offense, but Seattle shocked the fantasy world when they drafted Zach Charbonnet in round 2, stifling an elite ceiling. While Charbs shouldn’t take away startability from Walker, he will almost certainly make this a full-blown timeshare. The Seahawk running back situation is certainly in flux, but Walker is still one of the most talented runners in the NFL. That will keep him in the running to be a solid #3 RB/WR/TE, but we may never see what heights he could have reached without another talented back next to him.
All signs point to James Cook as the #1 option for the Bills’ running back room. One of the most pass-happy offenses in the NFL doesn’t have an established #2 receiver, Cook is primed to develop trust with MVP talent Josh Allen. Cook averaged a quality 5.7 yards per attempt on 89 attempts last year and that number will certainly increase. Cook will be fed enough to be startable, but he still has some limitations to his opportunity. Arguably Cook’s biggest threat is Damien Harris, who is a between-the-tackles grinder perfectly designed for clock-killing game scripts. Josh Allen also opts to scramble for yardage versus checking down to a receiving back. He’s a solid #3 RB/WR/TE.
The upside that Kadarius Toney possesses is scary to think about. The Chiefs are starving for a receiver to soak up available targets and Toney is one of the most twitched-up receivers in today’s game. While he’s not as refined as a route runner, he’s in the perfect offense that can take his game to the next level. Andy Reid is the master of manufactured play design and that is showcased by their efficiency in the short passing game. Their EPA per play in passes thrown between 1-20 yards is 21.87, with the 2nd ranked team ranked 4.31. (The rest of the NFL is ranked in negatives) The largest issue is his availability to stay healthy as he’s played in 19 games in two years. (Including run to the SB) With reports of injury issues already surfacing, it could be another year of inconsistency for Toney, but when he’s on the field, he should warrant a weekly start.
PK: Tyler Bass 9 PPG
PN: Jake Camarda 11 PPG
DT: Grover Stewart 15 PPG, Jarran Reed 12 PPG
What a wild year for the 29-year-old from Albany State (GA), who maximized his opportunity with the Colts to notch career highs in total tackles (69) and sacks (4). Keep in mind, Grover only tallied 12 pressures, so that number is almost certainly going down and he’s only hit 3 sacks one other time in his 7-year career. What keeps him startable is his high tackle floor, but we need to have modest expectations as he posted barely startable numbers the year prior on the same opportunity. (Although in a different scheme in Indy.) Stewart clocks in on the lower end of quality defensive tackles but is one of the most underrated assets as people hardly even notice he scored 279.
Back in 2018, there was talk of Jarran Reed becoming the next great defensive tackle. Obviously, that never materialized, but after a 10 sack season, it was worth having the conversation. Reed bounced around to Green Bay and Kansas City which punched a hole in his upside a bit, but he still produced bye-week startable numbers. Now with the DT scoring boost and his return to Seattle, Reed should continue to be just fine as a back-end defensive starter.
DE: Rashan Gary 16 PPG, Travon Walker 12 PPG
It was a full-on breakout party for Rashan Gary, who notched 6 sacks through the first 8 games. A torn ACL ruined the 2nd half of the season and losing their best pass rusher played a part in the Packers missing the playoffs. If Gary can return to the form he showcased last year, he’ll be a top 16 EDGE moving forward. The first part of 2023 could start slow after a return from a major injury, but the 25-year-old should be just fine long-term.
The 2022 #1 overall pick came in with some production question marks but was lauded due to his athleticism. The lack of counting stats was accounted to the Georgia system, but if his rookie year was any indication, that might not have been a viable excuse. Travon Walker is still only 22 and did not have a bad rookie year, but it was not up to par with what was expected as a #1 overall pick. Heading into his sophomore campaign, a pressure and sack progression is necessary to avoid the bust label. He will be given the opportunity to succeed and gets to play opposite of a borderline elite EDGE in Josh Allen.
LB: Cody Barton 16 PPG, Germaine Pratt 16 PPG
Cody Barton is somehow surviving and appears to have taken hold of the playcalling duties for the Washington Commanders. To add, this likely comes with full-time snaps, although that is yet to be fully determined until week 1. Barton was one of the worst linebackers in the NFL last year, mercifully being benched after struggling in Seattle. The linebacker situation must be bleak in Washington if he’s their full-time guy. Fortunately for IDP purposes, Barton is the perfect type of player to target and will be very useful for our fantasy game.
There is a lotta talk of Germaine Pratt moving onto another team, especially after his late hit on Patrick Mahomes, which effectively eliminated the Bengals from the AFC Championship game. Pratt’s returning to the only team he’s ever known, which is still good for his fantasy value. While he’s never been an elite option, he’s passable on almost full-time snaps. His elite coverage skills keep him on the field and that should be no different in 2023.
CB: L’Jarius Sneed 14 PPG, Desmond King 11 PPG
The IDP world loves L’Jarius Sneed, but after a career year, to expect anything close to his 18 PPG production would be insane. Sneed’s 100 total tackles, combined with 3 forced fumbles, 3 INTs and 3 sacks resulted in a season we rarely see from anyone at the corner position. While it will be a borderline impossible task for him to repeat this distinction again. In the elite Chiefs corner situation, even if the big plays dry up, he’ll still be a rock solid top 3 IFL corner.
Desmond King appears to be the nickel back and kick/punt returner for the Texans. King has survived as an IDP asset over the years in this role and succeeded with his transition to Houston. Now in a new scheme, he’ll have to survive with perhaps less than 100% snap opportunity, but hopefully, he can utilize his quality blitz ability to pick up a big play or two.
S: Jamal Adams 15 PPG, Jordan Whitehead 12 PGG, Terrell Edmunds 12 PPG (Marcus Maye 12 PPG)
Lordy b, please can we get a healthy Jamal Adams? It’s been too damn long since we’ve seen peak Adams, who delivered a historical 9 sacks back in 2020. Those numbers evaporated in 2021 and didn’t play more than 1-game in 2022 when he tore his quad tendon. When fully healthy, Adams is one of the best box safeties in the game and is only 27. Once he returns to the field, he should immediately be a top 16 option again. Keep a close on his big-play propensity, which is what he was known for early in his career. Update* Adams was activated off of PUP and he may be ready to go for week 1.
Jordan Whitehead joined a talented Jets defense last season as a free agent from Tampa Bay. He didn’t necessarily perform up to IDP expectations, as many were hoping for a top-20 safety season. Whitehead accrued 89 total tackles to go along with 2 INTs, a low-end S2 production output. We probably shouldn’t expect anything better moving forward, but he’s only 26 and could have some positive variance.
Terrell Edmunds finally departed the difficult scheme in Pittsburgh, where he quite never quite got his career off the ground. The less famous Edmunds brother has the opportunity in Philadelphia, where he’s tasked to beat out Reed Blankenship and Sydney Brown. Edmunds has never been known for racking up tackles or big plays, but if he gets full-time snaps again, he’s at least worthy of a roster spot to see if he can finally take a step forward.
Off: New York Giants 10 PPG
X-Factor: Building out a defense.
PPG: 310
W-L: 5-12
After a couple of tough seasons, Shayne is entering year 4 with a newfound hope that 2023 can be the season he transforms into a contender. Unfortunately, it doesn’t appear the defense is built out enough for this to be a reality. The top of the offense is competent, with Justin Herbert, Mark Andrews, and Stefon Diggs all being solid contributors. (Although Andrews and Diggs are on larger than market value, multi-year contracts that may restrict future roster flexibility.) There’s quality depth on offense as well, mitigating potential injury issues to anyone outside of his top two. Defensively, there is no one on the back 11 who is likely to be a true difference-maker. (Outside of Sneed, who could be special again.) While there is a litany of solid pieces across the team, it’ll likely be another tough season for the Orange County native.
