Coach: Sean McVay 3 PPG
QB: Jalen Hurts 35 PPG
It’s incredible the journey Hurts set himself on as he had to transfer out of Alabama playing behind Tua and backing up Carson Wentz in Philly. He is the model for the cliché of getting 1% better each day. He showcases that if you’re patient and work hard, your time can come. His completion percentage over the last three years: 52% in 2020, 61% in 2021 and 66% in 2022. He also took much better care of the football, with his interception % decreasing from 2.7 in 2020, 2.1 in 2021 and just 1.3 in 2022. From a fantasy perspective, what makes Hurts special is his running ability, as he’s ran for over 700 yards and double digit touchdowns the past two years. Hurts is locked in as a top 5 QB so long as he’s healthy.
RB/WR/TE: James Conner 21 PPG, Chris Godwin 18 PPG, Dallas Goedert 17 PPG, Tee Higgins 16 PPG, Dalvin Cook 15 PPG 6th men: Alec Pierce 11 PPG, Robert Woods 11 PPG, Gerald Everett 11 PPG, Cade Otton 9 PPG
James Conner’s incredible story of overcoming Leukemia to continuously be a workhorse running back is one of the history books. Through the last two years, the Cardinals have consistently relied on the Pittsburgh Panther graduate to run through walls of defenders. Conner is consistent, but not necessarily in the best ways. Firstly, he’s a near lock to miss games, as he’s never been able to play a full season – making him must handcuff. Conner has also never averaged over 4.5 yards per attempt, and the last two seasons saw him average 3.7 and 4.3 YPA. All of this being said, Conner is still slated to receive all the opportunities he can handle as the offense very likely runs through him. Colt McCoy is going to dump off receptions to Conner consistently and he’ll likely receive 15-16 carries a game. Just brace yourself for a month or so of Keaontay Ingram receiving most of the work as well.
Chris Godwin’s value is tied to the precarious play of Baker Mayfield. That being said, this is the best receiving corps Baker’s ever had, so I’m a bit optimistic he can provide fantasy value for a pair of Pro Bowl receivers. After tearing his ACL two seasons ago, it took some time to get back up to full speed, but Godwin was his usual target hog self upon his return. He hit 1,000 yards again despite missing two games, but didn’t deliver in the TD department with only 3 across the entire season. That was a bit out of the ordinary and a career-low since his 2017 rookie year. Godwin will likely be top 20 in targets again keeping him well within the startable range for fantasy. If he can bump up his TD total, he comes into the season as one of the most underrated WR assets.
Dallas Goedert has felt like a forgotten man for most of his career. He started as a sniped draft pick as the Eagles took him one pick ahead of the Cowboys, who needed a replacement for Jason Witten. Sitting behind Zach Ertz for a couple years prepped him for the role he has today, which is a pretty prolific receiver for a tight end. While his targets will never reach elite heights, Goedert makes the most out of his touches and the bevy of Eagles’ weapons takes attention away for plenty of excellent 1-1 matchups. One thing that can take Goedert’s game to the next level are redzone looks. While he did miss 5 games, he only received 8 redzone targets, which is clear by his 3 measly touchdowns. As long as Goedert is healthy, a career year looms and 300+ points is not out of the question.
Arguably the best #2 receiver in the NFL, Tee Higgins is still an excellent IFL asset. Fresh off his 3rd straight year of over 100 targets, he’s a safe projection to match what he’s done. There is no easier projection arguably, as he’s hit 107, 110, and 110 targets in the first three seasons. He’s even closely matched his TD totals to boot. Playing second fiddle to one of the best QB/WR combos of our generation, Higgins will never be an elite asset in his current situation, but he is still a more than capable as a back-end starter.
June 8th marked the end of an era in Minnesota when they released Dalvin Cook. The 28-year-old back had been to 4 straight Bro bowls, averaging 4.7 YPA through that timeframe. Last year, Cook took a step back, but still was his usual workhorse self. However, combined with his off-the-field legal issues stemming from domestic violence, the Vikings are now turning the keys over to Alexander Mattison. Cook took his time joining another team and he selected the Aaron Rodgers-led New York Jets. They likely envision an Aaron Jones/AJ Dillions-type timeshare, but this is not a 1-1 comparison. When fully healthy, Breece Hall is a more well-rounded back than AJ Dillion and may be a better back when 100%. As the season wears on, Cook likely becomes less involved, making him a risky proposition week-to-week. There’s little doubt he’ll be involved, but it’ll likely be a boom/bust situation until we receive more information on the snap share.
PK: Jake Elliott 7 PPG
PN: Trenton Gill 9 PPG
DT: Jonathan Allen 19 PPG (Sebastian Joseph-Day 14 PPG, SJD will be a better option than Malik Collins for Allen’s annual Week 14 bye.)
The DT scoring boost elevated DTs into value we’ve never seen before and Jonathan Allen has ascended into 300+ territory. An annual threat for double-digit sacks and a high-floor tackler for an interior lineman, he’s going to be a top 5 asset for the foreseeable future. Allen signed a long-term deal with the Commanders and asked to anchor an excellent defensive line. At only 26, he is just entering his prime and if he takes a step forward as a pass rusher, he could eventually finish at the DT1.
DE: Aaron Donald 18 PPG, Joey Bosa 17 PPG
It was a lost year for Aaron Donald, who injured his ankle week 12 and never saw the field again. He was trending toward the lowest mark in sacks since 2016, which is not a great sign for his future prospects. Thankfully, even if he continues on the same production path as last season, that still makes him a fringe top 10 EDGE. The ceiling is still immense, but we may need to temper expectations to be closer to 10 sacks, versus 15-20 moving forward.
It was another lost season for Joey Bosa, who has played only two full seasons in his 7-year career. It’s sad to think what could have been had he not dealt with foot, finger, hamstring, groin, and head injuries. When he’s healthy, he’s one of the premier pass rushers in the NFL. While he’s never been able to put it together in the run defense department, he generally holds up enough to be passable. It’s been a while since his elite 2019 season, but I’m hopeful he can at least return to his 17 PPG 2021 mark. There’s certainly upside for more, but I’ll have to see it to believe it.
LB: Alex Singleton 18 PPG, Jordan Hicks 17 PPG, Matt Milano 16 PPG, Denzel Perryman 16 PPG
After being left for dead after a mildly successful stint in Philly, Alex Singleton revitalized his career in Denver after signing during the preseason after a tough luck injury to Jonas Griffin. The one thing everyone knows about Singleton is his ridiculous tackle efficiency, which places him in top 16 LBer territory despite his annual deficiency of big plays. Despite not playing over 2/3rds of the snaps 7 games in 2022, Singleton still posted 297 points. Somehow given a 3-year deal that will likely tie him in Denver through at least 2024, we should expect another pair of quality seasons. He’s the epitome of a bad NFL player that offenses target, but is perfect for IDP purposes.
Jordan Hicks kinda sucks donkey balls, but he’s getting the opportunity to produce. The Vikings surprisingly held onto Hicks after releasing their annual leader Eric Kendricks and will likely pair him with 2nd-year pro Brian Asamoah. Hicks isn’t the most high-profile IDP’er, but this arguably makes him an excellent target as he’s always been an efficient tackler and big-play producer. What brings him down a peg from his 2022 stats is Brian Flores’ scheme, which has rarely been kind to linebackers. Hicks has a chance to buck that trend, but he shouldn’t be placed higher than a top 32 option.
The Italian Stallion has quietly been a serviceable LBer through the last half-decade. Milano is one of the cornerstones of a quality Buffalo defense and he’s expected to continue there through 2026. Last year was a career season for the 5th rounder out of Boston College, who has always trended to be more inefficient with his numbers despite playing a full-time role. His 98 total tackles were buoyed by an incredible 12 pass deflections and 3 INTs despite missing two games. Regression is likely coming to match his career norms, but he’s an automatic plug-and-play through opportunity alone.
Denzel Perryman may not have snagged headlines joining Houston’s poor defense, but by all indications, he’s going to be leading this linebacker room next to Christian Kirksey. While there is plenty of young talent in Christian Harris and Henry To’oTo’o, it’ll be at least one year of veteran backers as a new scheme is implemented. DeMeco Ryan’s scheme generally provides two linebackers IDP relevancy and Perryman has been usable when he’s healthy. That’s been the issue for his entire career, but enjoy the production until he goes down.
CB: Roger McCreary 12 PPG, Marco Wilson 11 PPG
Roger McCreary quietly joined Tennessee and played almost every snap. He posted quality numbers with 84 total tackles and 8 PDs. With only 1 INT, we could see McCreary take a step forward in the big play department and if he can replicate those tackle numbers, he could be a dark horse candidate for a top 5 corner season.
Marco Wilson provided IDP owners with a quality season last year, finishing as the CB23 in PPG. While he missed a few games, he did hit the 50 total tackle threshold and provided 3 INT and 10 PDs. I’m a bit worried the Cards will be playing from behind quite often in 2023, limiting Wilsons’ opportunity. Still, as a full-time corner, he’ll have his startable weeks.
S: Grant Delpit 16 PPG, Talanoa Hufanga 16 PPG (Minkah Fitzpatrick 15 PPG)
It’s been a tough start to Grant Delpit’s career, but the man is finally ready to show what he can do. After a brutal Achilles tear in his rookie year, it took him an additional year to receive full-time snaps. When he did, he produced, with over 100 total tackles, 4 INTs, and 10 PDs. With incoming DC Jim Schwartz a lover of the box safety, Delpit is a dark horse to finish as a top 5 safety. Keep a lookout for a major step forward for his 2023 campaign.
Talanoa Hufanga broke out in 2022 with an All-Pro campaign. The modern-day Troy Polomalu showcased his big play ability that made him an intriguing prospect coming out of USC. He took a major step forward as a sophomore and made it clear he has some of the best instincts of any safety. He’s one of my favorite plays for the position because he’s shown his big play ability at every stop and they can win weeks. He’s the type of safety to build a defense around. He’s just getting started.
Off: Philadelphia Eagles 15 PPG
X-Factor: This roster is soooo close. Trading for a superstar running back puts this team over the edge.
PPG: 332
W-L: 10-7
Flod is being overlooked. After last year’s tough wild card loss, he went to work, reimaging his offense and bringing in many new faces that can help him compete this year. Both James Conner and Dalvin Cook are aging assets but should be more than a factor this year. Higgins, Goedert, and Godwin are all solid floor plays and Hurts will likely finish as a top 3 QB again. Defensively, Flod has star power at every position and is deep. It wouldn’t surprise me for a second if he wins the NFC South this year. Don’t sleep on Flod, he’s going to be in it come December.
