Coach: Brian Daboll 4 PPG
QB: Deshaun Watson 28 PPG
Bill Cos- errr Deshaun Watson’s 2022 comeback went about as poorly as humanly possible. He finished with the fourth-worst completion percentage completing just 58.2% of his passes and finished with a tragic 7/5 TD/INT ratio. He was, however, not afraid to take off and run, averaging 6 carries a game. The rust was clearly there, as he only exceeded 200 yards and 20 completions once all year. (Albeit not in the same game.) His 6 weeks of play to be bunt, was terrible, and it certainly raises some questions about who he is heading into 2023. If he continues to produce at a 20 PPG glacial pace, the Browns giving this serial sexual assaulter a fully guaranteed contract will be the biggest botch of resources in NFL history.
That would be such a shame.
Truly, what a pity that would be.
Let’s not all root for that. (nothing personal, Buckets)
RB/WR/TE: Alvin Kamara 23 PPG, Amari Cooper 18 PPG, Michael Thomas 16 PPG, Terry McLaurin 15 PPG, Rondale Moore 14 PPG 6th men: Tyler Higbee 14 PPG, Diontae Johnson 14 PPG, Taysom Hill 13 PPG, Zay Jones 12 PPG, George Pickens 12 PPG, Dawson Knox 12 PPG, Odell Beckham 12 PPG, Rashaad Penny 10 PPG, Mecole Hardman 9 PPG, Logan Thomas 8 PPG
We finally have clarity on Alvin Kamara’s suspension and it was a best case scenario. In only missing three games, Kamara is incredibly only missing one double header after Jai’s impromptu switch of the double header schedule. Who AK is as a player has shifted over the past couple of years. His reception totals have dramatically shifted, as he no longer receives over 100 targets a season. Instead, he’s hovered around 70 and 50-60 receptions. His carry totals have also gone up, averaging around 190 in a season to around 230. That’s about what we should expect if he is not suspended, as he still should be the #1 option at running back. I’m actually very optimistic about a bit of a bounceback year for AK, as he encountered terrible touchdown luck, regressing from 21 TDs in 2020, 9 in 2021 to only 4 last year. He should bump that total up considerably if his offense can take a step forward.
Amari Cooper’s fantasy value largely boils down to whether Deshaun Watson can return to a top 5 fantasy QB. It’s been quite a while since we’ve seen peak Watson, as hasn’t produced quality fantasy production in almost 3 years. Cooper will undoubtedly be the #1 receiver in Cleveland and should have no problem replicating his 130 targets from 2022. Cleveland has done a solid job bringing in ample receiver talent, but that should not take opportunity away from Amari. He should flirt around 6-9 TDs as well. At this point, we know what Amari is capable of and that is a fringe top-10 fantasy WR season.
Honestly, I don’t know what to expect target share-wise for Michael Thomas. Last season started off hot, clearly looking like he was going to be their #1 WR again, but exited week 3 and was never seen again. Chris Olave will likely be the alpha in the targets department, but MT should get his fair share of underneath routes too. Low key, this Saints offense could be dangerous. They have two speed demons Chris Olave and Rasheed Shaheed. Thomas, a route technician will feast on slants and rack up the PPR points. While this is a hard projection there is a world where MT can hover around 20 PPG if this offense can finally stay healthy.
Even with the less-than-ideal circumstances in Washington, Scary Terry has exceeded expectations with his 3rd round pedigree. He’s received over 120 targets and wrangled 1,000 receiving yards in the last three years of his career. While this doesn’t put him in anything more than 4/5 RB/WR/TE territory, it makes him a safe investment with a modest floor. McLaurin will be the go-to option for the winner of the Sam Howell/Jacoby Brissett sweepstakes and there’s upside here if new OC Eric Bieniemy can create touches ala Andy Reid.
Rondale Moore has a make-or-break season coming up with the Cardinals in his 3rd year. He desperately needs to stay healthy as he’s struggled to do for the past three years, dating back to his final year at Purdue. When Moore was on the field, he was quite productive, averaging 16 PPG for the 5 games he fully played. (This was also with DHop in the lineup) This is a full reset in opportunity and scheme and there is rampant talk Moore will be used more as a deep threat, versus just as a slot receiver in the passing game. With only Marquise Brown ahead of him on the depth chart (and Moore is the clear-cut #2 thus far in camp) we could see a high-end bye-week filler-type season if Joshua Dobbs(?) can keep this offense afloat.
PK: Greg Zuerlein 8 PPG
PN: Jack Fox 9 PPG
DT: Ed Oliver 14 PPG
It has certainly been a less than encouraging start to Ed Oliver’s career, who by many accounts was compared to Aaron Donald coming out of Houston 4 years ago. While he hasn’t even come remotely close to those heights, he did take a step forward in the pass rush department last year despite missing 4 games. His 16 total pressures were only two behind his 18 mark from 2021, in which he notched 4 sacks. His tackle numbers also took a step in the right direction and would have notched career highs in those areas had he not missed a month. While I’m not predicting a breakout by any means, Oliver is hovering around 70% snap share, a fine mark for a DT. He profiles as someone who could very well break out at any point, but I’m not quite willing to bank on it.
DE: Bradley Chubb 15 PPG, Chase Young 13 PPG
Bradley Chubb got a bit of flack last season after being traded to Miami, but he didn’t necessarily stop producing pressures. Chubb ranked 15th in total pressures last year, which paired excellently opposite Jaelen Phillips. Granted, they gave him top 6 EDGE rusher money, so they fully expect him to be a top 10 rusher next season. I don’t think we’re going to see him reach those heights and he must become a more impactful run defender. He’s an excellent bounceback candidate and an EDGE that shouldn’t be overlooked as a fringe top 20 option.
You may not have heard about this, but Chase Young is currently not cleared for contact and is dealing with a neck issue. While we still don’t have news about this yet, he’s been out since August 11th, so this isn’t some minor stinger. Young is coming off two straight years of providing next to nothing for the Commanders, leading to them declining the former 2nd overall pick’s 5th-year option. While he’s still only 24, the start to his career couldn’t have gone much worse tearing ACL and taking much longer than anticipated to return. Upon his return, he was not the same player and shockingly, he was struggling before the tear too. This season is critical for his long-term value. If he can’t deliver passable numbers, he could find himself in a similar situation to Marcus Davenport where he signs a 1-year mercenary deal to recoup some value. For now, expectations are he’s a bye-week filler type.
LB: Josh Woods 12 PPG, Sione Takitaki 3 PPG, Jalen Reeves-Maybin 3 PPG
It’s very TBD on Josh Woods’ value in Arizona, as he started 1 preseason game next to Kyzir White. He played well, but we still don’t know what his opportunity will be this season. The 6th year UDFA out of Maryland has a career high 28 total tackles in 2021 and has been a career reserve. The 12 PPG projection is living on the edge, but for now, it looks like he’ll have the opportunity to prove himself a viable starter.
Sione Takitaki’s name is one for the ages! Coming off of a torn ACL from a week 13 tear, it’s pretty incredible he recently avoided the PUP list to start the season. Last season Takitaki’s usage ramped up after Jacob Phillips and Anthony Walker were lost for the season, and he was certainly serviceable when receiving 75% of the snaps. That is unlikely to happen to begin the season with Anthony Walker, JOK, and Tony Fields likely standing in his way. Special teams tackles maybe?
Jalen Reeves-Maybin is sitting behind Alex Anzalone, Malcolm Rodriguez, Jack Campbell, and Derrick Barnes in Detroit. He did make the roster for the Lions, tho. With a few injuries, he can potentially be startable.
CB: DJ Reed 11 PPG, Darius Slay 10 PPG
DJ Reed is the corner who plays full-time opposite Sauce Gardner. You know what that means!? Targets delux. 80 total tackles and 12 PDs in 2022 equated to a top-32 corner season. If he can finally catch a few interceptions, he can take a step forward. He’s a safe bet for CB2 corner production.
Darius Slay is not exactly a startable asset as a high-quality boundary corner for the Eagles. Generally, he is avoided for the less talented options in the passing game. Given his opportunity, he will never miss a snap and hovers around 10 PPG annually. Should be more of the same for the 32-year-old pro going into his 11th season.
S: Kevin Byard 14 PPG, Damontae Kazee 8 PPG, Demar Hamlin 5 PPG
Kevin Byard is one of those special free safeties who constantly delivers quality tackle numbers and big plays. A model of consistency as well, Byard rarely misses games and is a beloved Tennessee treasure. (He played college at Middle Tennessee State) Byard is a turnover master, as he’s delivered 4 or more INTs in 5 of the last 6 seasons. He annually delivers around 100 total tackles as well. He’s a fine low-end S1.
Damontae Kazee is a solid player who has struggled with injuries dating back to his time in Atlanta. Currently, he’s projected to be a part-time player behind Keanu Neal and Minkah Fitzpatrick. 8 PPG may be generous and we’ve yet to see his snap share. He’ll be one to keep an eye on and how the snaps shake out between him and Neal.
Demar Hamlin is a fantastic story, but he’s not a starter. He is, however, an excellent handcuff for Jordan Poyer if he were to miss time again this season. He showcased he is more than capable of handling starter reps. If he can regain the opportunity, he should be slotted back into the starting lineups immediately.
Off: Cleveland Browns 11 PPG
X-Factor: Building out a core group of players for 2024.
PPG: 254
W-L: 0-17
As the roster is constructed, it’s not looking like Buckets will win a game this season. That being said, it is not the most difficult thing in the world to find defensive players on waivers (like corners and defensive tackles) who can score more than 3rd string players. Buckets has been making solid moves over the past few weeks, bringing in 5 2024 1sts to enhance the future of his team. This year will certainly come with a learning curve and it’ll teach how to build a competent lineup for the future.
