Coach: Brian Callahan 4 PPG
QB: Justin Herbert 26 PPG
One of the great fantasy questions heading into 2024 — will Herbert be a startable fantasy asset?
As a passer, I believe in his talent. We’ve all seen Herbs sling it into double coverage, extending games he had no business to. Arguably, he possesses the 2nd best arm talent in the NFL. The pressing issue is that the Chargers will be one of the most run-heavy teams in the NFL in 2024. When Harbaugh ran the 9ers and had Greg Roman as his OC, they had the second fewest passing attempts in the NFL. The 2023 Chargers, meanwhile ranked 3rd in total pass attempts. Thankfully, this is not a death knell to Herbert’s profile as we’ve seen QBs like Brock Purdy provide efficient numbers on run-heavy teams. That is what I’m hoping we see from Herbert next season and I believe it’s very much in the realm of possibility. We must see his completion percentage (65.1%), yards per attempt (6.87), and touchdowns (20) all increase if he is to enter Purdy’s level of production. It all must go right for him to enter the Purdy tier, so it’s probably unlikely, but there is a path to do so. For now, he’s a fringe top 16 option.
RB/WR/TE: Tyreek Hill 27 PPG, CeeDee Lamb 26 PPG, Breece Hall 24 PPG, Travis Etienne 22 PPG, Travis Kelce 21 PPG 6th men: Puka Nacua 19 PPG, Curtis Samuel 11 PPG, Tutu Atwell 10 PPG
It was another insane season for Tyreek Hill, who remained near the top in every significant statistical category. It feels like just yesterday he was entering the NFL as a no-name Day 3 pick out of West Alabama, showcasing his athleticism on punt returns. Despite missing one game, Hill finished first in receiving yards (1,799), rec yards per game (112.4), 1st in TDs (13), 3rd in targets (168) and 2nd in catches (119). Entering his age 30 season and a year after he cited he’d be retiring in three, the end could be coming quicker than we think for the Cheetah. However, he is currently looking for a new contract, perhaps to ensure he can pay for his rumored 10 children with 4 different women. He’s a locked in top 3 receiver and super stud for the IFL.
CeeDee Lamb broke out in a MAJOR way last year, finally becoming the alpha wide receiver the Cowboys were hoping they’d be getting when they took him 17th overall in the 2020 draft. He led the NFL in targets last year, resulting in an explosion of real-life and fantasy offensive production. There’s no reason to expect the Cowboys to turn away from this strategy either, as they also paced the NFL in points scored with 509. (I guess Kellen Moore didn’t matter that much.) There’s everything you look for in an elite receiver profile, down to also leading the league in redzone targets by four with 31. (Jake Ferguson is 2nd with 27 and Michael Pittman was 3rd with 23) At only 25, we could be at the start of an uber-productive run with Lamb as one of the annual top 10 RB/WR/TE assets.
It was predictably a slow start for Breece Hall, returning from a torn ACL the year prior. He scored under 12 points in 3 of the first 4 weeks, but after that point, he provided a quality RB2 profile. He finished 22nd in the NFL in rushing yards per game (58.5), a respectable 4.46 YPC (36th among RBs who played more than 5 games), and 14th in carries (223). What stuck out was leading the NFL in RB targets with 90 and receptions with 76. His receiving profile is what can vault him into elite territory. We’re not close to there from a carry or YPC standpoint to put him in the same conversation as CMC, but Hall is on his way to becoming an annual must-start and a top 32 RB/WR/TE. Let’s hope the wheels finally stay on the Jets’ subway car.
After a broken foot erased his rookie season, Travis Etienne has been a back-to-back 1,000-yard rusher. His opportunity took a major step forward, finishing 4th with 267 attempts. (The year prior he only had 220 carries.) Doug Pederson has been adamant about reducing ETN’s workload, but that has to coincide with anyone behind him on the depth chart being good at football. Tank Bigsby consistently sabotaged drives with butterfingers and lack of vision. (this link is every target Bigsby had in 2023 and is insane) Etienne also has a quality receiving profile dating back to college, finally securing 67 targets and 58 receptions, ranking 10th and 6th, respectively. His profile gets a small PPG regression because of the workload talk, but he’s locked and loaded for another successful fantasy season.
Travis Kelce is about to be 35 years old and is looking to secure his 4th Super Bowl before he rides off into the sunset. Last year was a bit of a step back for the recurring All-Pro, with less than 1,000 receiving yards for the first time since 2015, but did miss two games. He also frustratingly didn’t secure a touchdown in the last 6 weeks of the IFL season and reeled in 5 TDs all year, his lowest output since 2019. Still, he ranked first in the NFL in receiving yards per game for a tight end with 65.6 and finished 4th in targets with 120. It makes sense that Kelce would slowly decline, especially with the importance of keeping him healthy for a postseason run. Still, there’s reason for optimism as 5 TDs is a low output for a tight end who is known for his penchant for finding openings in zone coverage.
PK: Brandon Aubrey 10 PPG
PN: AJ Cole 11 PPG
DT: Chris Jones 14 PPG
It was another monster season real-life season for Chris Jones, who secured 10.5 sacks on 39 pressures, ranking 9th in the NFL. Jones is consistently near the top of the list in this regard which keeps him in the conversation as one of the game’s biggest disruptors. What limits his upside for IFL purposes is his lack of tackling numbers, which totaled 30 last year, a debilitating number for a league that provides 4 points per DT tackle. His career high was 44 in 2022 and reaching those numbers again would go a long way to making him a top 16 option. At this time, he’s one of the most overpaid assets in the IFL.
DE: Danielle Hunter 22 PPG, Carl Granderson 18 PPG
When Danielle Hunter stays healthy, there might not be a better pass rusher in the NFL. He is truly a freak of nature, towering in at 6’5” 263 lbs. 2023 was his career season, notching 83 total tackles, 16.5 sacks, and 4 forced fumbles. These all ranked as high water marks, so Brian Flores certainly knew how to get the most out of him. Now in Houston playing opposite Will Anderson, the situation may be the best he’s ever been a part of, but I’m skeptical a new environment will provide an improvement in counting stats. I have no doubt Hunter will land in the top 10 EDGEs again and is a superstar for our fantasy purposes. Just please stay off the injury report.
Carl Granderson was one of the best stories of 2023, as he led the Saints’ pass rush ahead of 1st round pick Payton Turner and 2nd round pick Isaiah Foskey and former superstar Cameron Jordan. Granderson is a UDFA from Wyoming, clocking in at 6’5” 261 pounds. (Sounds a little Danielle Hunterish, eh?) Granderson was given full-time snaps, finishing with 28 pressures (29th), 8.5 sacks (33rd) and 77 total tackles. That was good for a near 300-point season, which is everything you’d want from an EDGE2. Let’s see him do it again, but there’s little reason to expect he won’t be back as a top-20 option again.
LB: Ernest Jones 21 PPG, Bobby Wagner 19 PPG, Fred Warner 19 PPG, Nick Bolton 17 PPG
The IDP world has been drooling over Ernest Jones’ upside since he entered the league in 2021 and it was finally actualized. He was the lone full-time linebacker for the Rams, after they ejected Bobby Wagner back to Seattle. Jones is not the best coverage backer, (62.5 PFF grade) but he is an elite run defender, with a 90.0 PFF grade. He finished 11th in total tackles with 145, while missing a game. He also registered 4.5 sacks and 6 PDs, so the big splash plays are also there. Jones is only 24 and he’s starting to come into his own. He’s one of the most stable IDP assets to build a team around.
Bobby Wagner at the ripe age of 33 still has it. The man incredibly led the league in tackles with a combined 183, which is just an insane feat to even stay healthy after so much wear and tear on his body. He has moved across the country to Washington to continue his playing career, joining a bit of a jammed room with Frankie Luvu and Jamin Davis. They will certainly play second fiddle to Wags through his 1-year mercenary deal. It was an odd choice as his career comes to a close, but he must have a close relationship with his former DC and Commanders HC Dan Quinn.
Good ol’ Fred Warner has been an IDP mainstay from the moment he joined the NFL and has never missed a game. He’s a 3-time All-Pro and statistically, he hit career highs in forced fumbles (4), INTs (4), and PDs (11). This upgraded him from his usual LB2 production into the overall LB4, which was a boon to anyone who bought into him as a reliable, but unspectacular IDP option. Moving forward, I’m not sure he’ll continue to hit the big play ability to that extent, but he’s well on his way to Canton. Slot him in as a low-end LB1 for 2024.
Nick Bolton is an interesting case heading into 2024, as he regressed massively. He dislocated his wrist and missed 8 games, but even when he played, he wasn’t productive. Even worse, he was tragically bad during their postseason run, winning despite him. That sets up a puzzling contract year, especially after the Chiefs signed Drue Tranquill to a long-term deal. There are signs Bolton could be on the way out but is only one year removed from finishing 2nd in total tackles and having a dominant Super Bowl performance, which culminated with a pick 6. This could go several ways for Bolton, but on opportunity alone, he should be an easy weekly start for all fantasy teams. (Keep an eye on his snap share early in the season. If it creeps under 80% regularly, it’s time to panic.)
CB: Nate Hobbs 15 PPG, L’Jarius Sneed 11 PPG
We are three years into Nate Hobbs’ career and he has showcased two things – he is an incredibly efficient tackler and he is a bit injury-prone. He is near the top of the leaderboard for corners in tackles per game and likes to throw in a big play or three annually. He’ll be right back to the top of the leaderboard again this season and if he can finally stay healthy, he’s a favorite to finish as the CB1.
L’Jarius Sneed has been one of fantasy’s best corners over the past few seasons in Kansas City, posting a 300-point season in 2022. After being traded to Tennessee, it’s likely we will never see the same type of efficiency as his slot corner days with the Chiefs. Sneed will fill the outside spot for the Titans, as he mostly did last season with McDuffie manning the inside. The Titans likely have Roger McCreary tabbed for the slot corner role, but it may interchange as the season wears on. For now, Sneed lands in the JAG tier for corners, but we all know what his upside is.
S: Tyler Nubin 15 PPG, Amani Hooker 14 PPG
Continuing a recent trend of Golden Gopher safety success, Tyler Nubin (or Nuuuubs) is slotted to enter the IFL as a weekly starter. He’s taking over Xavier McKinney’s vacated role, one where he posted a healthy 250-point season and 15 PPG. Nubin was a big play machine with 13 career interceptions, 2 sacks, and 3 forced fumbles. This is the type of profile that’ll play for IDP purposes and one of the safest bets among all rookies to come in and produce from the jump. He just has to beat out Dane Belton.
It took 5 years, but Amani Hooker finally broke out. Despite missing three games, he registered 85 total tackles, 1 FF and an INT. His snap snare was primo, with 2/3rds of the time lining up in the box. So what are we going to get with Hooker now that Jamal Adams is in town? Hooker has a history of playing deep, so it’s hard to say. Elijah Molden is there as well to be more of a deep option and Adams could play more linebacker as the Titans have one of the worst units in the league. He’ll probably be more than startable and if I had to predict, he’ll split his time 50/50 between the box and deep with Baltimore defensive acolyte Dennard Wilson as their new DC.
Off Denver Broncos 9 PPG
PPG: 365
W-L: 15-2
X-Factor: Avoiding injuries.
365 points ties for the highest PPG ever given out in 10 years. There’s not much you can ask for in a pre-season team. What uniquely sticks out is this team is led by wide receivers, not running backs. That’s not to say that Hall and ETN aren’t super studs in their own right. However, Lamb and Hill are very stable assets and are the best players on the two most potent offenses in the league. Defensively, the linebacker room goes down as the best in the AFC. Depth-wise, Mark’s team is competent (Puka is his 6th man after all) and has a few future draft picks to sell off if needed.
