Coach: Sean McVay 5 PPG
QB: Dak Prescott 31 PPG
By most measures, Dak Prescott had the best season of his career, notching a career-high in touchdowns (38), 2nd high highest in passing yards (4,516), and tying a career-high in completions (410). Most importantly, he didn’t miss a game and led the team to the highest PPG in the NFL. It culminated in a QB3 and IFL’s overall #4 finish, showcasing he’s one of the best players to lead a fantasy team. Dak is heading into a critical contract moment, as Jerry Jones has elected not to extend Dak. This is mind-boggling, as he finished 2nd in MVP voting and was the 2nd Team All-Pro QB. Jerry feels like he’s about to croak at any moment, so perhaps it would be best to maximize the time he has left by resigning the best QB he’s had in the 21st century. I guess the 1st quarter of last year’s playoff game against the Packers where he threw two INTs (including a horrendous pick-six) left a sour taste in the mouth of the front office. That being said, it’ll be another interesting season in the Big D, and if they can’t make a playoff run, Dak could be looking for another team in 2025.
RB/WR/TE: Evan Engram 21 PPG, Aaron Jones 21 PPG, Joe Mixon 21 PPG, Jonathan Taylor 19 PPG, Tee Higgins 15 PPG 6th men: Pat Freiermuth 14 PPG, Dalton Schultz 13 PPG, Cole Kmet 13 PPG, Cade Otton 10 PPG
Evan Engram was the leading target and reception getter for tight ends in 2023, pacing the position with 140 and 114. Known as incredibly athletic and a prolific receiver, this was noted in the range of outcomes when he was initially selected by the Giants in the 1st round back in 2017. He finished as the 34th RB/WR/TE, with 19.4 PPG, and is a massive benefactor in the Jags letting Calvin Ridley walk in free agency. Despite the heavy volume of targets, he only caught 4 TDs, which is fluky given the volume. JAG Gabriel Davis and rookie Brian Thomas Jr. have entered the receiving fold, but that shouldn’t stop Engram from at continuing his large target share. If Engram gets the same target volume, which feels likely and he can bump up his TD numbers, he has a profile to finish as the TE1 at season’s end.
It was a struggle bus delux season for Aaron Jones, who missed most of eight games due to injuries. This did not endear him to the Packers’ front office as they requested him to take a pay cut. He refused and was sent a letter of release. Likely feeling a bit salty, he immediately signed with the division-rival Minnesota Vikings. Soon to be 30, the 8-year vet out of UTEP has some juice left in the tank, registering 4.62 YPC despite various ailments and recording 42 targets. Widely expected to lead the Vikings’ running back room, Jones is shaping up to be one of the best value buys in fantasy with unproven players slotted behind him. Kevin O’Connell and Justin Jefferson’s comments certainly point to a player who will be a featured back.
It was another stellar fantasy season for Joe Mixon, who has 4 1,000-yard rushing seasons in his seven-year career. Last year’s yards per carry took a tumble (4.02), but opportunity was still front and center, finishing 8th in rushing yards (1,034), 5th in attempts (257), and 12 in receiving targets (64). His legacy in Cincinnati will live on forever, but he was unceremoniously traded and extended with Houston, where he is expected to lead the running back room there as well. Mixon is likely locked in through 2025, with a dead cap hit of $8 million. Keep a close eye on his efficiency numbers, as he’s teetering on fall-off. He has plenty of wear on his tires. There’s no reason to expect anything other than a workhorse role again for Mixon and he’s said as much.
What a shit show the 2023 season was for Jonathan Taylor. He received passive aggressive comments from Colts’ owner Jim Irsay, requested to be traded, and ultimately signed an extension with the only franchise he’s ever known. This ties him to an elite rushing QB, pairing up to found the best rushing duo west of Philadelphia. Is this a good thing for his fantasy prospects? A study was released in 2021 detailing running back opportunity tethered to a quarterback who had a minimum of 6.0 rush attempts per game and the results were, um, less than inspiring. In 37 seasons where a QB hits the 6.0 rush attempt mark, only 19 running backs finished as a top-24 back and 9 finished as 12-top options. 9 of the top 12 finishes belong to three backs as well, LeSean McCoy, Christian McCaffrey, and Marshawn Lynch. To make matters even worse, running backs tied to high-volume QB rushers had ‘minimal to non-existent’ PPR upside, with only four teams in 37 seasons finishing top 10 in backfield targets per game. (Cam Newton led three teams and two of them were with CMC) Taylor’s game has never been predicated around the receiving game, so that’s not a major factor anyway. As you can probably surmise, I’m not a huge JT stan heading into 2024, and he’s one of my biggest fades this season at perceived value. However, this is a fast-paced offense, JT is an elite runner and on a massive contract, so he’s not just going to fade into obscurity. I would not expect him to finish as an elite option, but on decent carry volume, he should provide enough value to be a quality #3 on a championship team.
Tee Higgins is going through the conservative Cincinnati front office treatment Jessie Bates endured two years ago. Hesitant to sign him to a long-term deal, they strung him along on a franchise tag until letting him sign in Atlanta for a massive extension. That is likely what’s to occur with Higgins, as like Bates with Jordan Battle, they drafted his replacement in Jermaine Burton. Higgins had a bit of a difficult season, struggling with chest and hamstring issues, resulting in his worst output to date. Generally, he’s a prototypical back-end starter for IFL purposes, clocking in around 16 PPG. With Burton in the mix now, I’m a bit uneasy about marking Higgins with his annual 100+ targets, but he is too talented not to be featured. A small regression is to be expected with the most talented supporting cast around him. Thankfully, he’s signed his franchise tag and isn’t expected to hold out into training camp.
PK: Justin Tucker 9 PPG
PN: JK Scott 10 PPG
DT: Kobie Turner 14 PPG, Da’Ron Payne 14 PPG (BJ Hill 14 PPG)
Puka was a surprising story for fantasy success, and that was all great – but have we ever seen a late Day 2 DT post a 270-point rookie season? I can’t recall and Kobie Turner did it after posting 4 weeks of less than 10 points the first month of the season! Kobie immediately goes down as one of the best 6th and 7th round IFL picks in the history of our league, with 57 total tackles and 9 sacks. Playing alongside Aaron Donald didn’t hurt, but the man proved he’s one of the best interior linemen in the league. His 20-pressure mark is a bit concerning if we’re asking him to repeat 9 sacks, so we should probably expect a regression. He’s predicted to be a fringe top 16 option in 2024.
After coming out of nowhere to post 11 sacks in 2022, Da’Ron Payne regressed to his career norms with 13 pressures and 4 sacks. His pressures are right in line with fellow nose tackles Vita Vea and Dalvin Tomlinson and his consistent 50+ tackle output places him firmly in the top 16 conversation. Last season’s 25 pressures show that he is capable of more, but after 5 other seasons of 5 sacks or less, I think that’ll be his best season. Still, he’s a very capable fantasy asset.
DE: Alex Highsmith 16 PPG, Gregory Rousseau 13 PPG (Jayson Oweh 11 PPG, Bryce Huff 10 PPG)
From a production standpoint, 2023 was a step back for Alex Highsmith, who only notched 7 sacks after an improbable career-high 14 the year prior. The former 3rd rounder out of North Carolina-Charlotte still generated a similar amount of pressure (26 in 2023 versus 28 in 2024), so we should have seen a regression coming. Moving forward, 16 PPG is right in line with where he should stay, with the possibility of the sack luck percolating to the surface playing opposite of the generational talent TJ Watt.
It was sad to see Gregory Rousseau not take that next step as a player, as he continued to be stuck in a heavy rotation in Buffalo. He never played more than 70% of the snaps at any point during the season, restricting him from tackle upside. Heading into year 4 and still only 24, Old Gregg could continue to progress, but it doesn’t feel like it’ll be with the Bills. They elected to let Leonard Floyd and Shaq Lawson walk, but will have Von Miller return to a larger role and Dawuane Smoot will likely take over Shaq’s role. He’s best served as a bye-week filler with it being unlikely he notches 50 or more tackles.
LB: Matt Milano 15 PPG, Josey Jewell 15 PPG, KJ Britt 15 PPG
Matt Milano is set to return to participate in training camp after a major leg injury ended his season week 5. There were concerns he may be held out for an extended period, but was a limited participant in OTAs, greatly increasing his chances of a week 1 return. Milano is only one year removed from an All-Pro nod. Only 30, he has some time left to make a mark and lead the Bills to a Super Bowl. He’s never been a high-volume tackler and that is unlikely to change with the efficient Bernard playing alongside him. He is a consistent producer and should slot back into a high-end LB3, with around 100 total tackles and a few big plays.
Josey Jewell signed with his old DC Ejiro Evero lead the middle of Carolina’s defense. Last season only saw one full-time linebacker in Frankie Luvu, but veteran Shaq Thompson missed all but one game after he fractured his fibula. When both were healthy week 1, they played 100% of the snaps. That’s what I expect to be the case and Jewell should be a fine back-end IDP backer as he’s shown since becoming a full-time starter in 2020. He’s likely locked into this role through his age-31 season in 2025.
When Devin White was benched for a lack of effort and performance, it was KJ Britt who stepped in. This included both playoff games, which Britt performed admirably. We don’t have much information to go off of with Britt, who hasn’t done anything outside of special teams since being a 5th round selection out of Auburn in 2021. It’s encouraging the Bucs have mostly used two full-time linebackers with Todd Bowles as DC, but that was with 5th overall pick White and All-Pro Lavonte David. They may elect to give Britt more of a part-time role initially in run support, but even when White was benched, it was still two backers on the field for all formations. If this continues to be the case, Britt will be a startable IDP piece. It helps that Bowles called Britt “Our Unquestioned Leader Since the Spring.”
CB: Tyrique Stevenson 12 PPG, Daron Bland 12 PPG
From day one of his rookie year, Tyrique Stevenson was playing 100% of the snaps. On a bad Bears team, that was likely a wise move, as he can grow and develop his game. He graded out as a mediocre option, which is a positive given it was his first look at game action. He began to turn it on at the end of last year, with 4 INTs after week 11. He also finished at the overall CB8 with 14.7 PPG, and did it at a wide cornerback alignment. I’m not sure that’ll be recreated again, but he should be one of the better IDP starters for cornerback purposes.
Insane year for Daron Bland, who set the NFL record with 5 pick-sixes. While that will not be replicated, it’s clear Bland has a knack for interceptions with 14 career turnovers through his first two seasons. A 2022 Day 3 pick out of Fresno State, the Cowboys hit a home run with his selection. He’ll start opposite Trevon Diggs again and should be good for 60+ tackles and 3-5 INTs, ranking well within the top 32 corners.
S: Jaquan Brisker 16 PPG, Grant Delpit 16 PPG (Darrick Forrest 12 PPG, Jordan Poyer 12 PPG, DeShon Elliott 11 PPG)
Jaquan Brisker has been an IDP baller since entering the league two seasons ago. Now with back-to-back 16+ PPG and 100+ tackle performances, it’s safe to anoint him as one of the most valuable safety commodities in the game. Everything in his profile checks a box – ample big plays (3 FFs, 2 INTs and 5 sacks) and he plays most of his time in the box. Expect more of the same from Jaquan and with two years left on his rookie contract, he’s dirt cheap too.
Grant Delpit has started to come around as a studly safety for the Browns. Now with a pair of quality seasons under his belt, he’s comfortably slid into the set it and forget it starting tier as a top 16 option. Delpit was on pace for his 2nd straight 100+ tackle season before a groin injury ended his regular season. He’s right on the cusp of taking the next step as an elite player and at only 25, that could come this year. He plays 70+% of his snaps in the box, so the profile is there for a step forward.
Off: Detroit Lions 14 PPG
PPG: 324
W-L: 10-7
X-Factor: Finding a star or two to upgrade the defensive front 7. (Or hope that the ample depth provides a breakout or two.)
The AFC East has been a brutal division to try and work through and this season will be no different, with all four teams squared up for competitive seasons. Thankfully, Cory has prepped with depth on top of depth across his roster, which is what sticks out the most compared to his direct competitors. Offensively, he has one of the best lineups in the AFC, headlined by the RB trio of JT, Mixon, and Aaron Jones. Defensively, it’s a balanced unit, with the safeties in particular boasting an elite duo. At 10-7, Cory will be scratching and clawing for a return to the postseason and a shot at his second championship.
