Coach: Mike Tomlin 4 PPG
QB: CJ Stroud 31 PPG
I don’t think we have fully caught onto what CJ Stroud did last year. There was a narrative that he wasn’t composed under pressure in college and that created a bit of a slide in the minds of fantasy owners. Oh, he also registered a tragic Wonderlic score and said he looks up to Deshaun Watson. He was then taken by a franchise that had been the laughingstock of the NFL for years and this was going to be another epic chapter of what’s largely been a pathetic existence. Then they started playing games…
Check out this blurb detailing Stroud’s offensive success: “Selected No. 2 overall in the 2023 NFL Draft, Stroud took the league by storm this season and started in all 15 of his appearances, completing 319-of-499 pass attempts for a rookie franchise-record 4,108 yards, 23 touchdowns, five interceptions and a passer rating of 100.8, which marks the third-best passer rating by a rookie quarterback in NFL history. His 4,108 passing yards during the regular season rank third in NFL annals (hehe anal) among rookie signal callers, while pacing all rookies in every major passing category this season.
Stroud finished his 2023 rookie campaign with 4,557 total passing yards, including the postseason, which is the second-most in NFL history by a rookie, trailing only Andrew Luck (4,662) in 2012. He began his career with a record-setting 192 consecutive pass attempts without an interception, the most ever by a player to begin a career. Stroud led the league in passing yards per game (273.9), while also pacing the NFL in touchdown-interception ratio (4.60), joining Joe Montana (1989) and Tom Brady (2007) as the only three players in NFL history to finish first in both categories.”
The only fantasy knock on Stroud is he doesn’t provide rushing upside. Heading into 2024 with an upgraded receiver room and an additional offseason of seasoning, we could be sitting at the end of 2024 with Stroud firmly in the MVP conversation.
wrote CJ’s blurb pre-weed
RB/WR/TE: Kyren Williams 24 PPG, AJ Brown 20 PPG, Sam LaPorta 20 PPG, De’Von Achane 19 PPG, Zack Moss 17 PPG 6th men: Courtland Sutton 14 PPG, Rashod Bateman 9 PPG, Ricky Pearsall 9 PPG
This man is tiny as hell. Had foot issues his rookie year and was not coming in as the starter. Then he fucking takes off like a bat out of hell, running into a #7 overall in PPG finish and #26 overall finish despite missing a month? We can talk all about the Puka love, but Kyren was a BEAST too. The stats back him as the 2nd best running back in football last year. (CMC, hawk-tuah’d into 1st) Kyren finished 1st in yards per game (95.6), third in total yards (1,144) despite missing 4 games(!), 18th among running backs who played 5 games (5.02 YPC), and 6th in rushing TDs (12). Receiving was not his forte, but sat at a respectable 47 receptions and 206 yards, 3 TDs. (Think Isaiah Pacheco tier of receiver) So what does this all mean with Blake Corum in the fold? Do we think one of the best 5 NFL rushers would be usurped by a 3rd round rookie? Even if Corum is a skilled runner (plot twist, he is), it feels unlikely Kyren takes any sort of serious step back as a super-stud. After averaging an absurd 30 PPG, he does regress with some slight TD regression and the likely chance Corum takes some carries. Just keep in mind he still clocks in as a top-10 RB/WR/TE.
Oh Sammy! Ohhoohhoohohohohohoh… That’s the sound LaPorta owners made 10 times last season. It was a record-setting affair for the next great tight end out of Iowa, whose rookie season ranked 1st in receptions, 2nd in touchdowns, and 4th in yards. He slid right into that Detroit Lions’ offense like a ballpark slippery frank fresh off the grill in between two warm buns. Heading into year two, I’d expect LaPorta’s targets to stay stagnant. Even with the Jameson assurance incoming, the man takes Josh Reynold’s number 3 role and gets 70 targets. There likely isn’t enough to go around for 3 receivers to feast here. With 4 studly receivers, (Gibbs) LaPorta’s target share is an early season marker to review. If it’s sitting at 19% again, his PPG will likely stay in stud territory. If he’s ceding touches to Jam-0, he could slide out of the top 5 TEs.
We’ve seen back-to-back top 20 RB/WR/TE efforts from AJ Brown and he took a step forward this year, with a career-high 106 receptions. Ranking in the top 10 in the NFL in targets (154), 6th in redzone targets (21), and being tethered to an MVP-caliber QB doesn’t hurt either. At only 27, he is going to be sitting around this 20 PPG mark for at least a couple more years. Nothing has changed with the opportunity and he’s one of the safest players to bet on maintaining his role.
Zack Moss was fantasy’s #1 handcuff, being a league winner if our fantasy playoffs were between weeks 2 thru 8, clocking in as the #6 RB/WR/TE. Much of that was because of a missing or reduced role Jonathan Taylor, but, notably, Moss is capable. The Bengals thought so too, giving him a 2-year, 8-million contract. (Jamaal Williams/Austin Ekeler money) He averaged 4.34 yards per carry and chipped in a decent amount in the receiving game, with 27 receptions and 192 yards. I’m not sure we see a Mossination backfield, with talented 2nd year-back Chase Brown. This feels like it could turn into a timeshare that reduces the ceiling of both. (Like Philly was for a while.) Still, give me Moss as the lead of this committee and it’s well within the realm of outcomes he dominates touches and what I just said is a #LukeWarmTake.
De’Von Achane, the pint sized GAWD. What sticks out the most is his contact balance. The man does not go down on 1st contact, which ranked 2nd in the NFL behind pint sized GAWD Jr. Keaton Mitchell. Achane burst onto the scene from a 61-point effort against the Broncos, which the Dolphins as a team scored 70! He had 4 tuddies that day and 203 rushing yards. He played 11 games, totaling 72.7 yards per carry. (5-more yards per game than Raheem Mostert) What will his usage be in 2024? It feels a bit uncertain. After an MCL sprain, he returned and was the clear 2nd string option to Raheem Mostert, dropping his average to still a respectable 16 PPG. Will that trend continue? Then what to make of the talented Day 3 pick Jaylen Wright? The upside is top player overall and he is going to explode for some massive games. The floor here is low, so expect some bust games, equaling out to a top 40 RB/WR/TE.
PK: Mike Badgley 8 PPG
PN: Ryan Wright 9 PPG
DT: Harrison Phillips 16 PPG, David Onyemata 16 PPG (Leonard Williams 15 PPG)
Harrison Phillips was one of last year’s biggest surprises with his incredible 92 total tackles. This was wayyyy more than his previous career high (59), showcasing DTs in this Brian Flores defense has an incredible tackle upside. (Christian Wilkins got his start with Flores.) He finished as the DT5 and this came with just 3 sacks on 8 pressures. With no role or scheme change, it’s wheels up again for Phillips. At only 28, he could continue being a top 10 option for a minute too.
We don’t think about the Atlanta defensive line too much (for good reason), but David Onyemata was a highlight. Despite missing three games, he totaled 47 tackles, 2 forced fumbles, and 4 sacks on 11 pressures. That was good for a 16 PPG finish and DT13 in PPG. The former 4th round pick out of Manitoba (that’s a province in Canada) has always been an underrated player and looks like he’s found a home in ATL. He’ll slot in as a mid-DT1 for 2024, which should be 250+ points.
DE: Myles Garrett 20 PPG, Brian Burns 16 PPG (Uchenna Nwosu 14 PPG)
The dinosaur connoisseur who happens to be good at football Myles Garrett charted his 5th All-Pro season and snagged his first Defensive Player of the Year. (Sorry TJ Watt) This was in a season where his tackle, sack, and pressure numbers all took a tumble from the previous two years, so it felt a bit odd to win over Watt, who had 5 more sacks and 13 more pressures. By his standards, it was a modest year, with 42 total tackles, 14 sacks, (37 pressures), and 4 forced fumbles. Even in his worst statistical season since he hammered Mason Rudolph in the head with his own helmet, he was still the EDGE7.
A truly tragic season in Carolina who were dog shit in so many ways. This includes a regression from Brian Burns, who returned to his normal 8-sack mark he held from 2020 and 2021. He ranked 64th in pressures with 21, (had 30 in 2022) logged 50 total tackles and 1 forced fumble. This step back is likely because the Panthers were behind so often, he rarely had a chance to rush the passer. Burns joins another bad team in New York, which is being shown as one of the most dysfunctional franchises on Hard Knocks. (Why does Daboll lay down in chairs like this — does he have hemorrhoids?) He’ll likely be right around what he’s produced his entire career: high-end EDGE2 numbers.
LB: Roquan Smith 21 PPG, Terrel Bernard 21 PPG, Shaq Thompson 16 PPG (Cody Barton 15 PPG)
Roquan Smith has turned into an auto Hall of Famer, with his 6th All-Pro nod in 2023. (4 1st Team) Somehow only 27, I feel like he may be a bit underrated with how great the start of his career has been. That could stem from PFF charting him as a poopoopeepee run defender, but NFL writers certainly didn’t feel that way. Roquan took a step back from his 2022 career season, totaling 158 total tackles and 3 combined big plays. (Still LB11) It would be silly to rank him anything other than a top 10 option again. Lock him in åas your LB and breathe easy.
The Bills may have lost Matt Milano, but it wasn’t a problem — Terrel Bernard stepped up to fill the gap. He turned out a LB7 season, with 143 tackles, 3 INTs, and 6 sacks. That somehow didn’t even get him to the Pro Bowl, which is tragic. Now established as one of the best young linebackers in the NFL, the Bills boast an excellent tandem at the position. They have been a two-full-time backer defense with Milano and the former Bill Tremaine Edmunds and both were, erm, less than efficient with their opportunity. (Both skewed toward low-end LB2s.) Bernard showcased that a stud muffin season is possible here, but there’s risk Milano will take away tackles. How it shakes out will tell a story of how to view one of the most cost-effective IFL IDP assets. At 21 PPG, I think Bernard will remain an elite option and Milano will be his usual low-end LB2 self.
It’s been an admirable career for Shaq Thompson, who’s been a part of the IFL for as long as the league has been around. A 2015 1st round pick out of Washington, he began his playing career with Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis, developing under two of the best backers of the 2010s. That didn’t necessarily translate into becoming a quality player himself, but he’s been a solid asset from 2019-2022. Last year, Thompson fractured his fibula week 2, which ruined his season. It appeared he was ticketed for his usual full-time role and he should slide right into low-end LB2 numbers again. On the last year of his deal, keep a close eye on if he resigns as they selected Trevin Wallace on Day 2 of the draft. Shaq wants to retire a Panther.
CB: Kenny Moore 13 PPG, Charvarius Ward 12 PPG (Paulson Adebo 12 PPG)
It was a super duper season for Kenny Moore, posting overall CB3 numbers. The 28-year-old UDFA out of Valdosta State was back to his usual stud muffin status, posting 93 total tackles, 3 INTs, 1.5 sacks, and two touchdowns. (both during a 49-point week 9 performance against Bryce Young) Moore is an ideal corner from an alignment standpoint, as he plays outside in base defense and slides into the slot for nickel/dime packages. While we should expect a regression in the TD department, Moore has a stable floor as a reliable starter. He’s slotted in as a top-10 CB option.
Charvarius Ward was a beast, leading the 9ers secondary into another Super Bowl. Despite their unit losing All-Pro Talanoa Hufanga, their secondary held their own, ranking 1st in interceptions. (22) Naturally, Ward was a part of that with 5 picks of his own and an incredible 23 PDs. His tackle numbers also supplemented an overall CB4 effort with 72 total tackles. The PD numbers are guaranteed to decrease, so regression is baked into the 12 PPG projection. He’s a top 16 option.
S: Jessie Bates 15 PPG, Xavier McKinney 14 PPG
Jessie Bates went buck wild, shocking the IDP world with a 20 PPG output after signing as the free safety in Atlanta. He was stellar in both run defense and coverage posting a 90.6 overall grade, ranking only behind Antoine Winfield Jr. He totaled 132 tackles, 3 forced fumbles, and 6 INTs. What’s most incredible about this production is he aligned deep on 68% of his snaps, which rarely equates to career-type production. Bates was a solid tackle and big play producer during his time in Cincy, but took his game to another level. I worry he’ll deal with inconsistency if his usage continues as there just isn’t opportunity for tackle-producing. He’ll still hit the 100(ish) tackle threshold, but it’ll be a bit surprising if he can maintain his career highs across the board.
Xavier McKinney finally busted out like a grape on a hot NYC sidewalk. Staying healthy for the 2nd time in his 4-year career, he posted 116 total tackles, 1 forced fumble and 3 INTs. He ballyhooed that into top 5 safety money, a 4-year $67 million contract. (More money than Bates received from Atlanta) It’s quite a bit of coin for a guy who hasn’t been a consistent producer, but Green Bay is starving for secondary help. Color me skeptical that McKinney will continue his 15.5 PPG production from last year. The Packers haven’t provided IDPers a consistent safety in a hot minute, but they haven’t had a talent like McKinney. Incoming Packers’ DC Jeff Hafley was the head coach of Boston College before joining the NFL ranks, so we don’t have a great idea of historical defensive precedent. Keep in mind 3 of 4 years of McKinney hasn’t been great, so hopefully you have some insurance in the event he’s injured or less than effective.
Off: Miami Dolphins 15 PPG
PPG: 347
W-L: 13-4
X-Factor: The tiny running backs stay healthy.
Every roster tells a story. Various questions are answered. Were you active during various periods in the offseason? Have you been rebuilding over the last few seasons? Do you have an eye for details in various players’ outlooks?
There has been a change in how Dave builds this team.
Led by his hometown QB CJ Stroud, this team has both star power and a touch of ‘fantasy football is fun’ vibe. He acquired so good running backs at low value, watching them turn into championship-caliber pieces. It is one of the most rewarding parts of dynasty fantasy football.
Don’t discount Dave. This team is gonna fuck up a great many teams this season. It’s shaping up to be a new era in the AFC West.
