Coach: Matt LaFleur 5 PPG
QB: Jordan Love 29 PPG
It doesn’t feel this way now, but Jordan Love’s 2023 was a roller coaster. He started his upward trajectory in week’s 1-3 throwing 7 TD and one INT, while leading the Packers to a 2-1 start. (all 3 games he scored over 30 points for the IFL too) Then the struggles started, with a week 4 beat down in Las Vegas where he threw a horrendous three interceptions. He never topped 30 points again until week 11 in a get-right game against the Chargers and never looked back, with the high point being a wild card rout of the Dallas Cowboys. His strong finish propelled him to become the highest-paid QB in league history. Love’s consistency poses a red flag, but he finished in the top 10 in yards, TDs, and completions. He also provides a decent amount on the ground with 247 yards rushing and 4 TDs. He’ll slide in as a fringe top-10 option for fantasy.
RB/WR/TE: Jahmyr Gibbs 21 PPG, Rhamondre Stevenson 19 PPG, Michael Pittman 19 PPG, Kyle Pitts 15 PPG, Nico Collins 15 PPG 6th men: Javonte Williams 15 PPG, Keon Coleman 12 PPG, Khalil Herbert 11 PPG, Khalil Shakir 11 PPG, Ty Chandler 9 PPG
It was a stellar rookie season for Jahmyr Gibbs, who finished with over 300 points as the 1b in the Detroit Lions rushing attack. In his timeshare role, he finished with 182 carries (28th), 945 yards (17th), 10 rushing TDs (8th), and a quality 5.19 yards per carry (5th among rushers with more than 75 carries) He killed it as a receiver as well with 52 receptions (10th), 316 yards (16th) and a TD. Gibbs missed two games, which points to a player whose ceiling has not yet been reached. A major thorn in Gibbs’ side is David Montgomery, who finished the year with 219 carries and over 1,000 rushing yards in his own right. Who finishes higher this year is anyone’s guess, but both are again poised to be the best-rushing tandem in the NFL.
Rhamondre Stevenson was a frustrating own, as he struggled a bit with inconsistency in a poor Patriots’ offense. He only scored 4 touchdowns and wasn’t very involved in the passing game, which was very different than what we saw in 2022 when he caught 69 passes for 421 yards. The Zeke effect played a part, as did the high ankle sprain he suffered week 13 which ended his season. Stevenson is back to lead this rushing attack and a fresh contact. He does have another receiving back to contend with in Antonio Gibson, so I don’t think those high receiving totals are returning. Hopefully, Stevenson can bump up his below-average 3.97 yards per carry and rank higher than 51.6 yards per game. (30th) If not, we could finally see an Antonio Gibson post-hype breakout.
Michael Pittman has quietly been a solid receiver for fantasy purposes, but 2024 is trending into top-10 receiver territory. What tickles my fancy the most is his bump in targets, which sat at a career-high 156 (9th) despite missing a game. He finished the year with 109 catches (5th) 1,152 yards (14th), 4 TDs (tied for 63rd), and a stellar 24 redzone targets (9th). His touchdown numbers feel primed for progression, but it should be noted, that he’s never scored more than six tuddes at 6’4”. Unless Anthony Richardson turns this offense into stale bread (in the realm of outcomes), Pittman is looking like a fringe top-10 receiver for 2024.
Bless the souls of those who have been waiting four longgggg years for a Kyle Pitts breakout, which may be on the horizon. Long gone are the run-heavy days of Arthur Smith, doing yeoman’s work shielding our virgin eyes from the failed Desmond Ridder experience. LA Rams acolyte Zac Robinson is the OC who will incorporate a more balanced attack, playing to the offense’s strengths. Last season, Pitts recorded 86 targets (11th), 53 catches (16th) 667 yards (11th), and 3 TDs. If we extrapolate his 2023 target share of 16.2% from the Rams’ 583 pass attempts from 2023, we see a bump in targets to 94. Doing the same with his 17.7% team yard share and 4,300 passing yards from the Rams, Pitts ends with a 761-yard projection. That’s a solid bump, but not in the top 5 tight ends. (2023 Jake Ferguson tier) Perhaps this is a conservative projection and he’ll increase these totals. To add, much of Pitts’ value rides on Cousins and whether or not he can provide suitable production and not fall off a Matt Ryan plateau. It would be the most Kyle Pitts thing ever for that to happen, wouldn’t it?
The epitome of a 3rd-year breakout, Nico Collins was the primary beneficiary of CJ Stroud not being the second coming of Josh Rosen. He led the Texans passing attack with 109 targets (29th), 80 receptions (23rd), 8 TDs (10th) and 17 redzone targets (32nd). The continuation of this breakout (of which he averaged 18 PPG) is looking a bit bleak. The Texans brought in alpha wide receiver Stefon Diggs, who has been near the top of the targets leaderboard in recent years. I’ve seen quite a bit of rankings not factoring Diggs into the equation which, to be frank shows poor analysis. I’m going to uplift a part of the Tank Dell’s blurb as it fits perfectly for Nico Collins too:
“The Houston passing game was pretty balanced last year, with no one really dominating targets:
Nico Collins: 109 targets, 6.4 targets per game (17 games)
Dalton Schultz: 84 targets, 5.6 targets per game (15 games)
Tank Dell: 75 targets, 6.8 targets per game (11 games)
Bobby Trees: 74 targets, 5.2 targets per game (14 games)
Noah Brown: 53 targets, 5.3 targets per game (10 games)
Inserting Diggs in here, I’d assumeeee that he’d siphon up Woods’ looks with Collins, Schultz and Dell all losing a target or two a game? Diggs, if he still has the goods, which is up for debate depending on who you ask, is the alpha in this offense should command 130+ looks in this offense, which would still be a 30-target decrease from his polarizing 2023. This relegates Collins and Dell into more ancillary IFL fantasy pieces, but this situation is very fluid.”
PK: Jason Sanders 9 PPG
PN: Jake Camarda 11 PPG
DT: Justin Madubuike 19 PPG (Christian Wilkins 16 PPG, Jonathan Allen 15 PPG)
You would have been hard-pressed to find an analyst who predicted Justin Madubuike would finish 2nd in pressures last year for interior lineman. (33) His incredible success was a large reason the Ravens secured the #1 seed in a tough AFC. His 321 points finished 3rd among DTs in the IFL and all signs point to him being able to recreate the magic. He’s in a stereotypical 3-tech pass rusher body and at only 26, we should see him continue to produce consistent top-10 numbers.
DE: Aidan Hutchinson 21 PPG, Bradley Chubb 16 PPG (Kwity Paye 15 PPG)
Want to guess who led the NFL in pressures last year by a country mile? Well if you guessed Aidan Hutchinson as you were reading his blurb, look at the big brain on you! The man piledrived into 62 pressures, 12 more than Maxx Crosby and TJ Watt! (yes, this is just regular season) Unfortunately, he only actualized those pressures into 11.5 sacks and 2 of them came week 18 when we weren’t playing. A year three breakout is among us and Hutchinson is eying a top 5 EDGE jump. It would also be nice to see him tick his tackle numbers up too from 51 total stops to reach the stratosphere with his production. I think he’s being unvalued and should be regarded in the same vein as TJ Watt, Maxx Crosby, and Myles Garrett.
There was quite a bit of scrutiny put on the Dolphins for trading a 1st round pick away and paying Bradley Chubb elite EDGE rusher money. He responded with the best season since his rookie year, with 73 total tackles, 11 sacks and 6(!) forced fumbles. He ranked 17th in pressures with 33, but unfortunately tore his ACL week 17 against the Ravens. Chubb is still on the recovery trail from his ACL and with a scheme change, there’s a decent chance for regression. If he can keep those tackle numbers up, Chubb should be one of the most valuable EDGE rushers the moment he comes back.
LB: Quincy Williams 19 PPG, Quay Walker 19 PPG, Patrick Queen 18 PPG, Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah 18 PPG
I think it’s one of the coolest stories in the NFL that Quinnen Williams plays with his brother Quincy. The 3rd round pick out of Murray State found limited success early in his career with Jacksonville before landing a starting job with the Jets. Playing next to CJ Mosley must have helped his development, because he was a fringe startable asset in 2021 and 2022. He took off last year, with 139 total tackles (13th), 2 forced fumbles, 1 INT, 2 sacks, and 10 pass deflections. That’s a quality floor this gentleman provides, but he did regress toward the second half of the season. Still only 28, Small Q is set up for an indefinite stay as an IDP star. Let’s hope he can keep the tackle numbers up playing next to Mosley for at least one more year.
Weird season for Quay Walker, who largely regressed in his second season in Green Bay. He struggled with injuries and ineffectiveness, leading to their DC getting canned and his battery mate De’Vondre Campbell not being retained. Quay is now in competition with rookies Edgerrin Cooper and Ty’Ron Hopper, both of which come with Day 2 capital. Quay needs to be on his best behavior to regain his role, which has been incredibly productive. Despite missing a game, he finished with 118 tackles, 1 INT, 2 sacks and a TD. (his rookie year was even better) Let’s hope Quay rights the ship, or Vic is going to feel even worse about that taxi claim. (If you know, you know.)
Up to this point, Patrick Queen had a tumultuous career but put it all together for his contract year. He ended up being one of the best linebackers in football and turned it into a 3-year $41 million contract. (5th in AAV) He finished as IFL’s #17 linebacker with 133 total tackles (17th), 1 forced fumble, 1 INT, and 3 sacks. Now leading rival Pittsburgh’s defense, Queen decided he wanted to be a polarizing piece of an AFC North rivalry. Lord, help him. Moving forward, Queen should continue to put up top-20 linebacker numbers and is locked into a full-time job. Let’s hope the Ryan Shazier curse stops with him.
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah has been dealing with the brutal confines of being a Cleveland Browns linebacker under Jim Schwartz. The defense may be stellar, but production is likely to be lackluster. JOK did take a step forward and saw his snap share increase as the season wore on. He totaled 101 total tackles, 1 forced fumble, 2 INTs, and 3 sacks, finishing as IFL’s 22 LBer. There won’t be an owner who’ll be discouraged after his previous two seasons weren’t startable. He should be locked in for another repeat performance makes for a lovely LB2 with upside.
CB: Brian Branch 16 PPG, Byron Murphy 12 PPG (Deonte Banks 11 PPG)
We should have all seen Brian Branch coming, who was an elite safety in college and only fell in the draft due to the league beginning to discount the position and his mediocre testing numbers. He also is a bit slight for a safety (6’0” 203 lbs) which may play a part in him consistently missing time as his career wears on. (he missed 2 games his rookie year) Reports state that he is playing more safety in training camp, which should help his production. One of the best secondary players in the league already, he’s going to be a cheat code as a cornerback.
Byron Murphy has always teetered on the fringe top of the corner rankings, but never was quite noticeable enough to make a major impact. He’s slightly better than the JAG tier, but still is prone to the occasional bust weeks. He joined the Vikings after 4-years with the Cardinals and proved to be capable again, with 57 total tackles, 3 INTs, 13 PDs, and 1 forced fumble. He’ll be mostly outside corner with occasional slot snaps.
S: Rayshawn Jenkins 14 PPG, Jabrill Peppers 14 PPG (Trevon Moehrig 11 PPG, Andre Cisco 11 PPG)
After a successful stint with Jacksonville, Rayshawn Jenkins flew across the country to Seattle, to play in a Mike MacDonald-led defense. Now 30 years old, Jenkins has shown what he’s capable of, which is S1 production. He’s finished as a top 17 option back-to-back years and played the majority of his snaps in the box, but MacDonald plays his safeties deeper than his former DC Mike Caldwell. A tough projection, I expect a regression in the new scheme, with the potential to return to his free safety days with the Chargers.
It had been a hot minute since Jabrill Peppers was an IDP asset. It was looking like he may fall out of the league after a poor ending with the Giants and as a backup with the Pats. They resurrected his career and recently inked him to a 3-year 24-million deal. He’ll be playing a full-time role again opposite Kyle Dugger and have similar alignment where he played a little more than half his time deep. Peppers slots in as a solid back-end S2.
Off: San Francisco 49ers 15 PPG
PPG: 344
W-L: 13-4
X-Factor: Will the back end of the offense stay afloat?
Many in the AFC would like to see Craig die and shrivel away, (vampire style perhaps?) but that is not happening. Craig is going for his 4th straight division title – one that will prove arduous. The team Craig’s built is strong like bull, especially defensively which is chock full of star power. (look at that linebacking corps!) It’s the offense that has more questions, but certainly has the potential to produce a playoff team. Craig will be in the thick of it, per usual.
