Coach: Jim Harbaugh 4 PPG
QB: Patrick Mahomes 31 PPG (Anthony Richardson 30 PPG)
It was an odd season for Patrick Mahomes, who did not live up to his lofty fantasy expectations. While his stats are solid and he finished as a top 10 QB, he was drafted to be a locked-in top 3 option. Mahomes completed 597 passes (3rd), had a 67.2% completion percentage (21st), threw for 4,183 passing yards (6th), 27 TDs (8th), and 14 INTs (4th). On the ground, he provided 75 attempts for 408 yards (4th) and no TDs. These were all near his career lows, but does have a similar outlier year on his resume in 2019. (he missed 3 games that year) From an IFL perspective, I consider over 30 points from a QB a good week. Mahomes only provided 5 of those and only one weeks 11-17. (yikes) Everyone is expecting a bounceback and the Chiefs made it a priority to overhaul their receiving corps, bringing in Hollywood Brown and 1st rounder Xavier Worthy. He should return to fantasy stardom, but I’m not sure it’s as locked in as most would think.
RB/WR/TE: Bijan Robinson 23 PPG, Derrick Henry 21 PPG, James Cook 20 PPG, Jayden Reed 15 PPG, Chris Godwin 15 PPG 6th men: Calvin Ridley 12 PPG, AJ Dillon 9 PPG, Isaiah Likely 8 PPG
It pisses me off when I look at Bijan Robinson’s rookie season. He was in a 1a/1b timeshare with Tyler Allgeier, which is not what we were promised with his incredible talent. Bijan exceeded Allgeier’s YPC (4.56 v 3.67), but Allgeier did just top Bijan in yards after contact (1.9 v 2.0). Bijan was the clear lead receiving back, as he finished 3rd in the NFL with 83 targets, 58 receptions, 487 receiving yards, and 4 TDs. Moving into 2024, the hope is Allgeier’s rushing usage takes a step back and we see Bijan become second fiddle to CMC in the all-purpose back category. Allgeier is unlikely to ever go away, but 186 carries should not be repeated.
Derrick Henry is now the lead back in the NFL’s most run-heavy offense? Shiver me timbers! Henry continued to be an elite fantasy asset, leading the NFL in attempts, generating 1,167 rushing yards (2nd) and 12 TDs (5th). His 4.17 yards per carry left a bit to be desired, but his yards after contact ranked 11th in the NFL. (2.1) This points to a horrendous Titans’ offensive line and not a major decline in skillset. Now with Baltimore, the Ravens should task Henry with another heavy workload. He won’t be used much in passing game (rarely was in Tennessee anyway) and will slot nicely in as a top 16 RB/WR/TE.
Would it shock you to learn that ‘receiving back’ James Cook finished 10th in the NFL with 237 carries? It surprised me, as I think of the Bills as having one of the most prolific passing attacks in the NFL. Turns out, they rushed 512 times, ranking 5th! Cook was a major beneficiary, with 237 attempts, 1122 yards (4th), 4.73 YPC, but only two sad panda touchdowns. He was a decent passing back with 54 targets (19th), 44 receptions (18th) and 4 TDs. With only two touchdowns on the ground, it feels like that is ripe for progression. Can Cook maintain the sizeable workload with incoming rookie Ray Davis and Ty Jonhson? Probably? Either way, Cook should be good to go as a stable fantasy asset.
What in the world is going to happen with the stacked Packers’ wide receiver room? Most folks believe Reed will be the lead target-getter, above Luke Musgrave, Dontayvion Wicks, Romeo Doubs, and Christian Watson. He finished with 92 targets (47th), 64 catches (45th), 793 yards (42), 8 TDs (tied for 8th) and 24th in redzone targets. (18th) When all receivers were healthy, it was a VERY balanced target share, with Watson (16.9%), Reed (16.7%), and Doubs (16.4%) all finishing within 1% of each other. (Wicks was a large tier below and not worth mentioning due to opportunity concerns) What should be noted is that Watson missed half the season, but was the primary TD producer when healthy, with 33.3% of the unit’s scores, versus 26.7% from Reed and 25.% from Doubs. Reed’s touchdowns are likely to go down, but he should receive a bump in targets, completions, and yardage. I think that’ll equal his production out, resulting in a solid, but not noteworthy fantasy option for our league.
It was a down year for Chris Godwin, who finished as the 70th-ranked RB/WR/TE in the IFL with 14.4 PPG. He received 129 targets (19th), 83 receptions (19th), 1024 yards (23rd) and a measly 2 receiving touchdowns. (a career low since his rookie year in 2017) Godwin has teetered on staratbility for most of his career and has struggled with injuries, missing games from 2019 through 2022. Many people believe Godwin will see an uptick in production, but I’m suspect he can deliver anything more than borderline starting numbers after the QB transfer from Brady to Mayfield. For now, he sits at 15 PPG, with a slight bump from some better TD luck.
PK: Jason Myers 9 PPG
PN: Lou Hedley 10 PPG
DT: Vita Vea 14 PPG (Calais Campbell 13 PPG, DJ Jones 12 PPG)
The man, the myth, the 6’4” 347 mountain Vita Vea is a legend in Tampa. The mammoth has been the focal point of an elite-run defense. Since Vea was drafted in 2018, the Bucs have ranked 1st in run defense twice (2019 and 2020) 3rd in 2021, and 4th in 2023. Vita can provide a bit as a pass rusher, notching 5.5 sacks on 13 pressures. (had 6 sacks and 4 sacks the in ’22 and ’21 as well) He leaves a bit to be desired on the tackle front, with his career-high in tackles coming last year with 43 total stops. He’s a decent bye-week option, but there’s upside to be had at DT like never before.
DE: Nick Bosa 21 PPG, Kayvon Thibodeaux 17 PPG (Jonathon Cooper 17 PPG, Boye Mafe 17 PPG, Zack Baun 17 PPG)
Nick Bosa had a three-year low in sacks with only 10, but a floor season was still the EDGE14. This is not a cause for concern, as it’s a massive outlier with 44 total pressures, ranking 5th. Josh Hines-Allen, who had two more pressures finished with 17.5 sacks and Micah Parsons, who had 2 less pressures had 14 sacks. . Everything else was fine with his profile as well, with 53 total tackles and 2 forced fumbles. One year removed from a Defensive Player of the Year season, he will still provide elite EDGE numbers and slide right back into the top 5.
Kayvon Thibodeaux delivered the goods last year, as he took a major step forward as a rusher. He ranked 16th in the NFL in pressures with 35 and snagged his first double-digit sack campaign with 11. As a run defender, he was a bit of a question mark, with a 52.3 run defense grade per pff. (But as with Roquan Smith back in the day, that doesn’t mean much.) He did wrangle 50 total tackles, which is more than serviceable. The man just received some needed help with the Giants trading for EDGE with Brian Burns. Let’s hope both of these guys will be put in positions by the offense to pin their ears back. This slots in as a quality EDGE2, and don’t be surprised if he takes another step forward.
LB: Azeez Al-Shaair 19 PPG, Robert Spillane 19 PPG, Jerome Kaden Elliss 17 PPG, Denzel Perryman 15 PPG (Jerome Baker 15 PPG, Tyrel Dodson 14 PPG)
The UDFA from Florida Atlantic was high on potential backing up Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw in San Fran, and finally got his chance for full-time snaps in Tennessee. He finished 5th in the NFL with 163 total tackles and also notched two sacks. Now heading back to his former DC, DeMeco Ryans, Azeez is locked into the middle of one of the best defenses in the NFL with a 3-yard 34 million contract. (signed through 2026) This tackle hog is going to feast for years. Only 26, he’s one of the best dynasty buys right now. Both Josh and Nic have him for less than $4 million.
Robert Spillane was one of IDPs greatest surprises last year. After joining the Raiders on a 2-year $7 million deal, he went on to lead this defense in tackles, ranking 10th in the NFL 1ith 148 total stops. This equated to an LB12 IFL finish, adding 3 INTs, 3 sacks, and a forced fumble. The UDFA from Western Michigan is locked into starting work again and is still being undervalued as a 300+ linebacker. A top 20 option heading into the season, he’s the type of IDPer you can find at value.
While a hectic position battle is raging at the other Atlanta linebacker spot, Kaden Elliss is happily managing the other. He finally received full-time snaps for the first time in his 4-year career, this 7th round pick out of Idaho finished 2nd for the Falcons in tackles with 122. (Bates had 132) He signed a 3-year $21.5 million deal to start for them in 2025. Elliss is probably the leading lady to take over the tackle lead here and if he gets his efficiency up, there’s upside for a top-16 season. For now, he’s a high-end LB2.
Calling this the Zack Baun effect. Josh is the GOAT at finding diamond in the rough linebackers.
Denzel Perryman has been around for a longgggg time. We’re talking San Diego Chargers long. He’s known for missing games, having never completed a full season in his career, but he’s been serviceable when available. Now 32, he’s been relegated to mercenary work, but he’s found himself in a good spot by resigning with the team that drafted him San D- errr LA. He’s shaping up to lead this defense in the near term until it’s deemed Junior Colston is ready. That’ll prove to be a decent gig for production, but keep in mind the rug can be pulled out from under him at any time. His 1-year 2.3 million contract doesn’t inspire much confidence. He’s a back-end starting LBer for now.
CB: Kendall Fuller 11 PPG, ???? 10 PPG (AJ Terrell 8 PPG)
Kendall Fuller’s been around since 2016 and has posted some quality IDP numbers, but he’s now joining the Minnesota Vikings and his role is a bit of a question mark. While he has slot experience, it appears Fuller will be tasked with manning one of the outside corner spots. Last year, Fuller was a tackle machine for a corner with 79 total tackles and pitching in 2 INTs. With a history of quality production, Fuller is worth a stash but may prove to be a bit inconsistent depending on his role.
S: Jalen Pitre 13 PPG, Marcus Williams 12 PPG
It was a major production regression for Jalen Pitre, who was widely expected to take a step back after a scheme and talent change entered Houston. His majority free safety alignment is what primarily is responsible for this, making him barely startable averaging 12 PPG in 2023. On a positive note, it appears Pitre will be playing closer to the line of scrimmage, practicing at slot cornerback. He sparsely played slot corner through two years but did play that position in college. The hybrid alignment bodes well for his outlook, and he should take a step forward, with his tackles trickling back up.
Marcus Williams, known for his famous missed tackle during the Minneapolis Miracle, is still kicking in Baltimore as their starting free safety. He’s been significantly injured the past two seasons, missing 13 total games. Signed through 2026, Williams isn’t going anywhere, but he doesn’t often provide much for our fantasy league. He is a typical boom/bust free safety with some bright weeks but is best left for bye-week filling.
Off: Dallas Cowboys 15 PPG
PPG: 331
W-L: 9-8
X-Factor: Shoring up holes on D.
Josh has a championship-caliber offense that can compete with anyone, but defenses continue his Achilles heel of taking that next step. This team will be in the thick of it in the AFC. He’s deep at EDGE, with 4 guys ranked 16 PPG or more. (shame that the lineup rule change to be able to start 3 DEs didn’t go thru) The tough division dings his record a bit, but it’s another quality team in LA.
If you have Mahomes as your QB, you have a good shot of making the playoffs.
Who made the playoffs with Mahomes on their roster?
2024 – Josh & Jai
2023 – Josh (no) DJ (yes)
2022 – Brad (yes) DJ (no)
2021 – Nils (yes) Brad (yes)
2020 – Nic (yes) Brad (yes)
2019 – Brad (yes) Nic (no)
