Coach: Mike MacDonald 5 PPG
QB: Matthew Stafford 27 PPG
At the ripe old age of 35, Matthew Stafford looks as good as ever, posting another borderline 4,000-yard season. He did this without his #1 receiving weapon for much of the year, Cooper Kupp, so he turned 5th-round rookie Puka Nacua into a superstar, breaking numerous rookie records in the process. Stafford ranked right in line with the low-end QB1s – 12th in completions (326), 11th in passing yards (3965), 11th in touchdowns (24), and 10th in INTs (11). He of course provides nothing on the ground. Stafford is a bit of an injury risk, but if he’s on the field, he should be locked and loaded for another consistent campaign. He’ll be a top 16 option again.
RB/WR/TE: Raheem Mostert 21 PPG, Evan Engram 21 PPG, Mark Andrews 20 PPG, Saquon Barkley 18 PPG, DeAndre Hopkins 14 PPG 6th men: Chigoziem Okonkwo 10 PPG, Jaylen Wright 6 PPG, MarShawn Lloyd 5 PPG (*Nick Chubb 16 PPG)
Everyone and their mother talks about the demise of running backs around age 27, but I guess we throw Raheem Mostert into the dark depths of the fantasy toy box. At 31, he exploded for career highs across the board with 209 carries (20th), 1012 yards (10th), 18 rushing TDs (1st by 4 TDs), and finished tied for 6th in yards after contact (2.2, same as CMC). He provided marginally as a receiver, with 32 targets (41st), 25 receptions (42nd), and 3 passing scores. The Dolphins are thinking about a life without Mostert in 2025 with the selection of Jaylen Wright, but for now, Mostert is locked in as their 1a. Achane currently sits as the efficient runner on limited touches. Achane exceeded 14 carries only 3 times in 11 games and until we see otherwise, he’ll slot in as the boom/bust change of pace. Mostert is arguably the most undervalued 2024 asset in the IFL.
Evan Engram was the leading target and reception-getter for tight ends in 2023, pacing the position with 140 and 114. Known as incredibly athletic and a prolific receiver, this was noted in the range of outcomes when he was initially selected by the Giants in the 1st round back in 2017. He finished as the 34th RB/WR/TE, with 19.4 PPG, and is a massive benefactor in the Jags letting Calvin Ridley walk in free agency. Despite the heavy volume of targets, he only caught 4 TDs, which is fluky given the volume. JAG Gabriel Davis and rookie Brian Thomas Jr. have entered the receiving fold, but that shouldn’t stop Engram from at continuing his large target share. If Engram gets the same target volume, which feels likely and he can bump up his TD numbers, he has a profile to finish as the TE1 at season’s end.
It was an injury-marred season for Mark Andrews, who suffered a dramatic hip-drop tackle ankle injury that knocked him out for the most important time of the IFL season. (weeks 12-17) No matter, he’s back and better than ever paired with an MVP-level passer and returns as their #1 receiving threat. A 20.8% target share ranked 4th in the NFL for tight ends, while 9.07 yards per target ranked 2nd among the top 20 tight ends. There is still meat left on his upside bone, as we’re still waiting for an elite touchdown season, with his career-high sitting at 10. (His team touchdown market share sat at a massive 46.2%, so this is VERY much on the table!) He’s as elite as elite can get at the position and will flirt with 350 points if he can play a full 17 games.
2023 was the standard Saquon Barkley experience. He averaged a mediocre 3.9 YPA, missed 3 games, only scored four rushing touchdowns… and still finished as the overall 11 RB/WR/TE on volume. Barkley is entering an offense chock full of stud players across the offense, including a mobile quarterback who dominates redzone touches. I am very sus on Barkley’s prospects to maintain the volume he’s seen in Philadelphia, especially as a receiver. Jalen Hurts historically has one of the lowest RB target shares to running backs and I’ve detailed previously the history of a lack of targets for these backs. Here is a blurb from JT’s projection and why it matters to Barkley.
“A study was released in 2021 detailing running back opportunity tethered to a quarterback who had a minimum of 6.0 rush attempts per game and the results were, um, less than inspiring. In 37 seasons where a QB hits the 6.0 rush attempt mark, only 19 running backs finished as a top-24 back and 9 finished as 12-top options. 9 of the top 12 finishes belong to three backs as well, LeSean McCoy, Christian McCaffrey and Marshawn Lynch. To make matters even worse, running backs tied to high-volume QB rushers had ‘minimal to non-existent’ PPR upside, with only four teams in 37 seasons finishing top 10 in backfield targets per game. (Cam Newton led three of teams and two of them were with CMC) Taylor’s game has never been predicated around the receiving game, so that’s not a major factor anyway.”
Unlike JT, Barkley has relied on passing volume his entire career. (His career low is 57 targets in 13 games in 2021, sans the 2-game 2020 season) There is potential for Barkley to become the next long line of running backs who busted on their second contract. He’s one of my biggest fades (at his perceived value) in the preseason.
Quietly, Hopkins still ranked among the top 16 in the NFL in targets but just wasn’t tethered to a quality QB. He was very inconsistent, providing 7 weeks of 9 points or below. He barely cleared 1,000 yards, despite receiving 133 targets. (That’s Adam Thielen/Calvin Ridley level bad.) Such is life when Tannehill and Will Levis are your QBs. Now 32 and with Calvin Ridley in the fold, Hopkins’ target share is very likely to decrease. Ridley himself received 134 targets in Jacksonville, so both could cancel each other out for fantasy viability in the IFL. Hopkins comes with upside, but he’d be best to throw in your lineup against weak secondaries at this stage. *Update Hopkins went down with a knee injury in early August and will miss the rest of the preseason. He is expected to be back by September 8th for the season opener.
PK: Wil Lutz 8 PPG
PN: Jamie Gillan 11 PPG
DT: Christian Wilkins 17 PPG (*Christian Barmore 17 PPG*)
Wild career arch for 1st round pick Christian Wilkins. After two largely unproductive seasons (not uncommon for young DTs), he exploded onto the startability scene in 2021 with a 91 total tackle season, which set a record for most by a DT all time. He then broke that record the following year with an insane 98 total stops, which cemented his status as one of the best interior defenders in the game. Wilkins changed to a much different scheme under Vic Fangio in 2023, which decreased his tackle production significantly, but for the first time was a major pass rush threat. He landed 9 sacks, on 30 pressures, ranking 24th among defenders. That landed him a massive new contract with the Las Vegas Raiders, joining an ascending defensive line. Now 28, we’ve seen this charismatic big man put together three straight quality seasons and 2024 should mark a fourth.
Christian Barmore took his game to another level in year three and his fantasy managers kindly thank him. There were underlying pressure metrics through his sophomore year that pointed to a breakout and he delivered across the board. While his numbers are skewed a bit with a massive 90-point two-week stretch during the fantasy playoffs, you won’t see his owners complaining. (Travis made the Super Bowl off his greatness.) Heading into 2024, I have no doubt he’s in line for a borderline double-digit sack campaign and if he can recreate 50+ tackles, he could stay in the top 10 of DTs for a very long time. UPDATE* Barmore was shockingly hospitalized late last month due to a blood clot issue and is out indefinitely. He’s since been seen with the team through practices, but it not actively participating in drills. These issues can be tricky and another Pats player David Andrews dealt with the same issue in 2019 which cost him the entire season. For now, I’m leaving him out of Wade’s projections because of this diagnosis.
DE: Trey Hendrickson 16 PPG, Boye Mafe 16 PPG (DJ Wonnum 13 PPG)
Trey Hendrickson continues to fly under the radar in Cincinnati as a studly pass rusher. Last season saw him notch a career-high 17.5 sacks, on 35 pressures (15th among defenders), along with 3 forced fumbles and 43 tackles. Hendrickson has rarely been a tackle machine, often relying on getting to the quarterback to post a viable fantasy line (and he did it every week except twice). That likely won’t be the case again, but double-digit sacks should be the expectation for this annual EDGE2.
Quietly, Boye Mafe brokeout in year 2 along a defensive line that was desperate for pass rushing help. Espcially after Uchenna Nwosu was lost, Mafe stepped up as the Seahawks’ number one passrusher, tallying 9 sacks, 25 pressures (39th in the NFL), 52 totals tackles and 1 forced fumble. Only 25, Mafe’s arrow is pointing up, but keep an eye on the snap distribution with Nwosu coming back and sophomore 2nd round pick Derick Hall taking a step forward.
LB: Kyzir White 18 PPG, Nick Bolton 17 PPG, Trenton Simpson 17 PPG (Dee Winters 12 PPG)
Kyzir White has bounced around a bit, playing on three different teams in seven years. (Chargers, Philly, Arizona) He’s performed at each stop when given opportunity and that was certainly the case with the Cardinals. Through 11 games, he was the LB17, with 18 PPG, 90 total tackles, 1 INT, and 2 sacks. He tore his bicep and missed the rest of the season at that point, but there’s little doubt he will be a must-start once the 2024 season gets underway. He’s an elite option for a #2 LBer spot.
Nick Bolton is an interesting case heading into 2024, as he regressed massively. He dislocated his wrist and missed 8 games, but even when he played, he wasn’t productive. Even worse, he was tragically bad during their postseason run, winning despite him. That sets up a puzzling contract year, especially after the Chiefs signed Drue Tranquill to a long-term deal. There are signs Bolton could be on the way out but is only one year removed from finishing 2nd in total tackles and having a dominant Super Bowl performance, which culminated with a pick 6. This could go several ways for Bolton, but on opportunity alone, he should be an easy weekly start for all fantasy teams. (Keep an eye on his snap share early in the season. If it creeps under 80% regularly, it’s time to panic.)
This year’s typical ‘wait a year linebacker’ is Trenton Simpson, who was drafted on Day 2 in 2022 to replace contract year Patrick Queen. That day has arrived and Queen himself endorsed Trenton Simpson as his replacement! (Never seen that before.) Simpson was an athletic freak out of Clemson, with a 9.84 RAS score. He was ranked by many draft analysts as their #1 LBing prospect, but raw. Hopefully a year behind arguably the best LBing duo in the NFL did the trick. 17 PPG puts him in the LB2 range.
CB: Rasul Douglas 12 PPG, Darious Williams 11 PPG (Jaylon Johnson 11 PPG)
T’was another successful IDP season for Rasul Douglas, whose career has rocket launched when he was plucked via waivers by the Green Bay Packers in 2022. He spent 2023 with the Bills, who started him from the jump and provided 5 weeks over 18-point production. (including two during the IFL playoffs) This’ll likely continue as a member of one of the best and most pass-happy teams in the NFL, requiring their opponents to strike back through the air. The Bills have annually been one of the best teams to target for corners and Douglas is a safe top 16 option.
Darious Williams is coming home to Los Angeles, where he got his start as a UDFA out of UAB. Signing a 3-year 22.5 million contract, Williams will certainly be tasked with one of the starting roles there. He’s posted two quality seasons in three years including a CB19 finish in 2023. He finished with 53 total tackles, 2 FF, 4 INTs, and 19 PDs. While his tackle numbers leave a bit to be desired, Williams is elite at deflecting passes. He’ll be tested again in pass-heavy scripts on what should be a very competitive Rams team.
S: Budda Baker 15 PPG, Rayshawn Jenkins 14 PPG, Alohi Gilman 14 PPG (Quandre Diggs 12 PPG)
Budda Baker has been an IDP darling for a long time. Last season saw him miss 5-weeks, but when he returned, he was a top-32 option on tackles alone. What was insane was he didn’t produce any big plays OR pass deflections. Zero. None. The man is known for big plays, so WTF happened??? Anywho, willing to look past it as a fluke once and there is a good chance we still have some progression in his PPG. He splits his time down the middle between playing deep and in the box.
After a successful stint with Jacksonville, Rayshawn Jenkins flew across the country to Seattle, to play in a Mike MacDonald-led defense. Now 30 years old, Jenkins has shown what he’s capable of, which is S1 production. He’s finished as a top 17 option back-to-back years and played the majority of his snaps in the box, but MacDonald plays his safeties deeper than his former DC Mike Caldwell. A tough projection, I expect a regression in the new scheme, with the potential to return to his free safety days with the Chargers.
Alohi Gilman turned into one of the best free safeties in the NFL last year. PFF charged him with an 89.2 coverage grade, ranking 5th in the NFL. He provided 73 total tackles, 3 forced fumbles, 2 INTs, and 10 PDs AND missed 3 games. I’m very curious to see how his production responds to a scheme change, but he’s one of the most undervalued options in the IFL. Even with playing the vast majority of his snaps at free safety alignment, Gilman appears safe(ish) from that opportunity.
Off: Atlanta Falcons 11 PPG
PPG: 323
W-L: 8-9
X-Factor: Is there a world Nick Chubb is a top 32 player again this season?
Wade had an uphill climb to build a quality squad in the offseason and did so through savvy trades and pickups through free agency. Offensively, he has established veterans in Stafford, Mostert, Andrews and Engram. Defensively, there are quality defenders at all three layers, but losing 3rd-year breakout star Christian Barmore is arguably the worst loss of the preseason thus far. The wild card here is Nick Chubb and what he can provide as a fantasy asset. If he can even garner opportunity, he should likely be startable. Wade is two years removed from an NFC Championship appearance and this team has the potential to make some noise if the pieces align.
