Coach: Dan Campbell 6 PPG
QB: Brock Purdy 28 PPG
It’s simply incredible watching the 2022 Mr. Irrelevant light up the NFL world. In the eyes of fantasy owners, 2023 was a major leap forward as alluded to with his newly minted holdout IFL contract. (He’s being paid over 14 million in both conferences) The ‘Almost Tom Brady’ has been to an NFC Championship, lost a Super Bowl through two miraculous seasons, and now has a top 5 QB production season on his resume. His completion percentage ranked 3rd among consistent starters, finished 3rd with 31 passing TDs, and 5th in passing yards with 4,280. San Francisco was the third most run-heavy team in the league, so Purdy naturally finished 16th in completions and 20th(!) in attempts, making his fantasy success even more shocking. If Shanny begins to throw the ball more or passing becomes a game script necessity, it’s not out of the realm of possibility Purdy could flirt with overall QB1 numbers.
RB/WR/TE: Kenneth Walker III 20 PPG, Deebo Samuel 18 PPG, Mike Evans 17 PPG, David Njoku 17 PPG, Stefon Diggs 16 PPG 6th men: Mike Williams 12 PPG, Michael Wilson 11 PPG
A reincarnation of LeSean McCoy, Kenneth Walker is one of the most fun players to watch in the NFL. He can create a highlight reel run at any moment and his incredible vision provides big-play ability that few in the NFL possess. Walker falls into the 1a timeshare role (think 2023 Javonte, Singletary, Bijan) and will likely do so again with Zach Charbonnet a threat to siphon touches. In 15 games he ranked 16th in carries (219), 19th in yards (905), and 12th in rushing TDs (8). He’s in the realm of Derrick Henry as a receiver, with the old Seahawks regime not featuring him with 35 targets (38th) for 259 yards. A knock on K9 is his YPC, which came in at 4.13, including a 1.6 yards after contact, which ranked 37th. (tied with plodders Zeke, Kamara and Rachaad White) There’s a bit of uncertainty with Walker’s usage under a new regime, but incoming head coach Mike MacDonald will likely employ a run-heavy approach. This obviously will benefit Walker and should stay right in line with his usual top-40 RB/WR/TE production.
The dual-threat Deebo Samuel fits well into the IFL landscape as an offensive weapon. He isn’t the most targeted receiver in the 9er run-heavy system, but his 35-50 carries a year relieve any sort of potential production drawback. As a receiver, the tallied 89 targets, 60 receptions, 892 yards, and 7 scores, while on the ground notched 37 carries 225 rushing yards, and 5 TDs. Now 28, Deebo is possibly looking at a couple more years of quality production if his body can hold up. He’s consistently proved he can be trusted in the middle to the back-end of your lineup.
11 years in, Mike Evans continues to showcase why he’s one of the best receivers of our generation. Of course, we all know about his consecutive 10-year 1,000-yard receiving record and the fact that he’s a jump ball superstar (in Madden too, right Curt?). Tethered to both a passable QB and WR2 in Chris Godwin, Evans has just enough around him to continue his lengthy quality statistical run. It’s unlikely Evans will reach 13 TDs again, but his 132 targets and 1255 yards are both well in the range of outcomes. (Although, he’s snagged 13 or more TDs in 3 of the past 4 years.) One thing that lowers his floor a bit is his lack of reception upside, as he’s never exceeded 100 receptions in a season. (11 receivers did it last year) Either way, enjoy a quality mid-range starter for a playoff-caliber squad.
David Njoku hasn’t exactly lived up to expectations as a 2017 1st round pick, but he finally took another step forward in 2023. While he was barely startable through the first six weeks of the season, he finally turned it on in the second half. From week 7 on, Njoku only scored under 15 points once. That came with both Watson and Flacco as QB, giving hope that he can continue to provide quality numbers with pudding pop at the helm again. Njoku found the nuclear launch codes into PPG orbit when Flacco took over, posting a 38, 26, 21 and 24 during the fantasy playoffs, but again he was still serviceable before that point. His 120 targets ranked 3rd among tight ends and his 882 receiving yards ranked 6th. He should slot into a quality 4th RB/WR/TE on a playoff-contending team.
The Houston passing game was pretty balanced last year, with no one really dominating targets:
In a shocking turn of events, Stefon Diggs was traded to Houston for a 1st round pick. Many people speculated that Diggs lost a step in the second half of last year and the Bills were wise to move on when they did. Unlike Buffalo, there is hefty competition for looks and it’s unclear how things will shakeout. As I have with both Dell/Collins, here is my assessment of the Houston passing situation:
Nico Collins: 109 targets, 6.4 targets per game (17 games)
Dalton Schultz: 84 targets, 5.6 targets per game (15 games)
Tank Dell: 75 targets, 6.8 targets per game (11 games)
Bobby Trees: 74 targets, 5.2 targets per game (14 games)
Noah Brown: 53 targets, 5.3 targets per game (10 games)
Inserting Diggs in here, I’d assumeeee that he’d siphon up Woods’ looks with Collins, Schultz and Dell all losing a target or two a game? Diggs, if he still has the goods, which is up for debate depending on who you ask, is the alpha in this offense should command 130+ looks in this offense, which would still be a 30 target decrease from his polarizing 2023. This relegates Collins and Dell into more ancillary IFL fantasy pieces, but this situation is very fluid.
PK: Tyler Bass 8 PPG
PN: Jake Camarda 11 PPG
DT: Harrison Phillips 16 PPG, Javon Hargrave 13 PPG
Harrison Phillips was one of last year’s biggest surprises with his incredible 92 total tackles. This was wayyyy more than his previous career high (59), showcasing DTs in this Brian Flores defense has an incredible tackle upside. (Christian Wilkins got his start with Flores.) He finished as the DT5 and this came with just 3 sacks on 8 pressures. With no role or scheme change, it’s wheels up again for Phillips. At only 28, he could continue being a top 10 option for a minute too.
Javon Hargrave had massive expectations after his 60 tackle, 11 sack season in Philadelphia. In signing with the 9ers, expectations were set for a repeat performance, but he regressed to a DT21 finish. While some are expecting a bounceback, I’m a bit wary this 31-year-old is over the hill. Profootballreference cited Hargrave registering only 14 pressures with his 7 total sacks. If those pressure numbers stay consistent, he will likely regress even further. More will be put on Hargrave after they elected to not resign Arik Armstead, so keep a close eye on his tackle numbers in particular. That could be his fantasy saving grace.
DE: Joey Bosa 16 PPG, Za’Darius Smith 13 PPG (Zach Allen 13 PPG, Michael Danna 13 PPG)
Sad looking at Joey Bosa’s game log, as he’s missed significant time in 5 of his 8 seasons. Every season he’s managed to play 16 games, he made the Pro Bowl. (and one where he only played in 12) The older Bosa bro took the NFL by storm, with back-to-back double-digit sack campaigns in 2016 and 2017, making him well worth the #3 overall pick. Through the last two years, however, he’s barely played and he must get healthy if he’s to be finally relied on as a fantasy commodity again. Lock this man in for EDGE1 numbers if he can stay fit, as evidenced by having the highest-pressure rate in the NFL through 2020 and 2021, (his last two fully healthy seasons) but you must have a contingency plan if he’s on your roster.
Really strange season for Za’Darius Smith, who still profiles as a top 32 EDGE rusher. He finished 28th in the NFL with 29 pressures, but only actualized them into 5.5 sacks. (If you’ve been following along, many players have around a third or ever half of their pressures turned into sacks.) Even stranger, his tackle numbers took a massive tumble, but still played over 600 snaps. That isn’t the greatest number ever, but it should certainly snag him more than 27 tackles. That should progress back closer to 40 total snaps and around 10 sacks, getting him back to a bye-week filler type at EDGE versus bantha poodoo.
LB: Shaq Thompson 16 PPG, Germaine Pratt 16 PPG, Tyrel Dodson 14 PPG (Jahlani Tavai 14 PPG, Kyrs Barnes 12 PPG)
It’s been an admirable career for Shaq Thompson, who’s been a part of the IFL for as long as the league has been around. A 2015 1st round pick out of Washington, he began his playing career with Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis, developing under two of the best backers of the 2010s. That didn’t necessarily translate into becoming a quality player himself, but he’s been a solid asset from 2019-2022. Last year, Thompson fractured his fibula week 2, which ruined his season. It appeared he was ticketed for his usual full-time role and he should slide right into low-end LB2 numbers again. On the last year of his deal, keep a close eye on if he resigns as they selected Trevin Wallace on Day 2 of the draft. Shaq wants to retire a Panther.
The lesser-known quality Bengals linebacker, Germaine Pratt is a superb player in his own right. Consistently doing his best Dre Greenlaw impersonation. Pratt is excellent in coverage but struggles with tackle efficiency. He’s never exceeded 120 total tackles in a season and last year’s 118 was a career high. He also took a step forward in the big play category, with 2 forced fumbles, 2 sacks, and 2 INTs. Only 27 and full-time snaps, we’ve seen profiles like his continue to improve in their late 20s. He’s a solid LB3 with upside.
Tyrel Dodson has made quite a career for himself as a former UDFA. Yes, he’s worked as a reserve through the first five years of his professional career, doing next to nothing before a Matt Milano injury, but he performed well enough to earn a second contract as a fringe starter for the Seahawks. Dodson will be tasked to replace one of two quality backers Bobby Wagner and Jordyn Brooks, who elected to sign elsewhere. It’s possible that Dodson isn’t a 100% snap player, similar to how he was in Buffalo. He’s slotted as a low-end IDP starter for IFL purposes.
CB: Camryn Bynum 16 PPG, L’Jarius Sneed 11 PPG
Camryn Bynum was a tackle machine! The dude notched an incredible 137 total tackles, which paced safeties and corners. Bynum played most of the time at free safety alignment but did spend a good deal at slot corner and in the box as well. He didn’t pitch in many big plays, so I skew a bit to a regression from his 18 PPG 2023, but this man should continue to be very efficient with opportunities.
L’Jarius Sneed has been one of fantasy’s best corners over the past few seasons in Kansas City, posting a 300-point season in 2022. After being traded to Tennessee, it’s likely we will never see the same type of efficiency as his slot corner days with the Chiefs. Sneed will fill the outside spot for the Titans, as he mostly did last season with McDuffie manning the inside. The Titans likely have Roger McCreary tabbed for the slot corner role, but it may interchange as the season wears on. For now, Sneed lands in the JAG tier for corners, but we all know what his upside is.
S: Jordan Whitehead 14 PPG, Jordan Fuller 14 PPG (Brandon Jones 13 PPG, Kerby Joseph 12 PPG)
It was a solid, but unspectacular 2-year stint for Jordan Whitehead with the Jets, who never quite took a step forward. He decided to return to Tampa, where he won a Super Bowl back in 2021. Whitehead has been pretty consistent with his tackle numbers with 6 straight years of tackles between 71 and 97 stops. He usually throws in 4-5 big plays, so a fringe top-32 season will continue.
Jordan Fuller is largely a forgotten man after he finished as the S16 in 2023 with the Los Angeles Rams. The 26-year-old signed a 1-year $3.25 million deal to start for the Panthers, relegating himself to the worst team in the NFL. Fuller’s last two full seasons have been very startable, with last year’s stats coming in at 94 tackles, 3 forced fumbles and 3 INTs. He’ll likely be playing a hybrid box/deep role in Carolina, remaining in the running for top 20 production.
Off: New York Jets 10 PPG
PPG: 310
W-L: 7-10
X-Factor: A 2-3 breakout defensive performance.
Offensively, Shayne has built a quality team. Purdy is a solid and stable QB1. The starting 5 of K9, Deebo, Mike Evans, Njoku and Diggs can get him to the playoffs. Defensively, there is depth, but there isn’t much star power to get him into serious championship conversations. Overall, that is what is lacking here for a true next step. Whether it comes from a trade or happens organically, that is the key to a potential Rams playoff berth in 2024.
