Coach: Mike Tomlin 4 PPG
QB: Kyler Murray 30 PPG
It was a difficult recovery for Kyler Murray, who endured a late-season ACL tear in 2022, which made him unplayable as a starter entering the year. He did return for weeks 10-17, but was not an impact starter averaging a chill 26.7 PPG. Not what you expect from a dual-threat QB, but some flashes were encouraging. He was still rushing, with 44 carries, 244 yards, and 3 TDs, which ranked 12th in the NFL without even accounting for he missed half the year. Passing-wise, he was below average, ranking 23rd in the NFL with 224 passing yards per game, 42nd in yards per attempt with 6.71, and 26th in completion percentage with 65.7%. These are all not death knells to his value by any means, but it cites that Kyler is not an elite passer-by many measures. Thankfully, he now has a generational receiver in tow with Marvin Harrison which could change the Cardinals’ offensive efforts. Kyler has a top 5 QB ceiling, but it’s been 3 years since we’ve seen it. (he averaged 34 PPG back in 2020) Let’s hope the 27-year-old can keep his mobile prowess alive.
RB/WR/TE: Terry McLaurin 15 PPG, Amari Cooper 15 PPG, George Pickens 15 PPG, Jordan Addison 13 PPG, Jameson Williams 12 PPG 6th men: Luke Musgrave 12 PPG, Tyler Higbee 11 PPG, Darnell Mooney 11 PPG, Rome Odunze 10 PPG, Jonnu Smith 10 PPG, Tyrone Tracy 7 PPG, Adonai Mitchell 7 PPG, Dawson Knox 6 PPG
It’s a welcome reset for Terry McLaurin, who has been stuck in a middling offense for his entire career in Washington. That may not change in 2024, as there are questions about Kliff Kingsbury’s system, but the status quo has barely been startable anyway. F1’s usage numbers are all decent – 20th in targets (128), 39th in target share (39th), and 35th in yards per game (58.9). The main issue for his entire career is his touchdowns and red zone targets. He’s never eclipsed his rookie year total of 7, which is simply incredible for a #1 receiver. His redzone targets last year was 9, tying for 73rd in the NFL. Soon to be 29, this is likely the final season he’ll be featured as the main option of Washington’s passing attack. More likely than not, Scary Terry will stay right on that startable borderline like he has his entire career and if we set our expectations correctly, we can be happy GMs.
Amari Cooper is somehow only 30-years-old but keeps chugging along as an annual 1,000-yard receiving threat. Even in the unfriendly confines of Cleveland where they employ pudding-pop, Bill Cosby-esque Deshaun Watson, Cooper overcomes, still delivering startable IFL numbers. The ceiling on Cooper’s 2024 rides on Watson finally figuring out how to throw the ball again, which early indications cite he has not done. Still, he should provide half-decent numbers as a boom/bust option regardless of who they throw behind center. He’s 7 of 9 for 1,000-yard seasons and likely to do so again in an offense searching for playmakers.
Find a worse QB/OC combo than Pickens will have to endure to start his career. For the first two years, he endured Matt Canada and Kenny Pickett, both of which kept their jobs for too long. Now, he’ll deal with Russell Wilson and Arthur Smith, locking in a clock management, run-first offense. Pickens has displayed some of the best hands in the NFL and his route running has come a long way since his days in Georgia. He appears ready for a repeat WR1 workload as well, evidenced by the Steelers trading away former stud Diontae Johnson. As their WR, the Steelers provided him 105 targets (34th), 63 catches (47th), 1140 yards (16th) and 5 TDs on a mind-numbing 10 redzone targets (78th). There is certainly room for growth here for a year three leap, however, it’s more of a situation thing versus a talent issue. For now, he’ll get a slight uptick, but until we see those targets and redzone looks increase, he’ll stay as a decent 4/5 option.
Jordan Addison had a splendid rookie year and did so in precarious circumstances. He tallied up 106 targets (32nd), 70 receptions (38th), 911 yards (33rd), a whopping 10 scores (6th) on 18 redzone targets (27th). There are some issues projecting his value moving forward. Much of his production came in the first half of the year without Justin Jefferson and with Kirk Cousins at QB. When JJ returned and Cousins tore his Achilles, he only scored over 14 points once over the final 8 games. That greatly worries me on an offense that will employ a below-average QB and the expectation to funnel JJ targets. Addison has talent, but not sure this team can provide two startable receivers for the IFL. He’s a fringe option and startable only in good matchups.
It was another frustrating year for Jameson Williams, who missed 4 contests due to gambling on games. This came after he was recovering from a torn ACL during his rookie year, so it’s been a tough start for the talented 1st round pick. Jameson finished behind both Josh Reynolds and Kalif Raymond on the target pecking order, only wrangling in 42 looks versus their 61 and 43. Now heading into year three, he’s certainly expected to take over that WR3 Z-role that Reynolds has occupied for the past two years. The main issue here is the Lions have soooo many weapons, many of which have displayed consistency and developed a strong rapport with Goff. Being 4th on a target list (St. Brown, LaPorta and Gibbs) makes it difficult for even the most talented receiver to make a fantasy impact. There will be boom weeks where Jameson has a 50-yard TD bomb, but disappearing acts as well. He’ll finally start to develop some relevancy in our league, but it’ll probably be another couple of years until we can seriously begin to consider him as a starter.
PK: Ka’imi Fairbairn 9 PPG
PN: Riley Dixon 10 PPG
DT: Ed Oliver 16 PPG, Vita Vea 14 PPG (Calais Campbell 13 PPG, DJ Jones 12 PPG, Byron Murphy 12 PPG)
It took five longggg years, but we finally saw Ed Oliver turn in a startable IDP season! It was a top-10 finish to boot, providing a 17 PPG output. He rallied for 51 tackles, 9 sacks, 19 pressures and an INT. The pressure/sack ratio scares me a bit as does the notorious Buffalo rotational defensive line, but Oliver is their best player along the front. Moving forward, he should be treated as a top 16 option on a team that will be chock full of pass rush opportunities.
The man, the myth, the 6’4” 347 mountain Vita Vea is a legend in Tampa. The mammoth has been the focal point of an elite-run defense. Since Vea was drafted in 2018, the Bucs have ranked 1st in run defense twice (2019 and 2020) 3rd in 2021, and 4th in 2023. Vita can provide a bit as a pass rusher, notching 5.5 sacks on 13 pressures. (had 6 sacks and 4 sacks the in ’22 and ’21 as well) He leaves a bit to be desired on the tackle front, with his career-high in tackles coming last year with 43 total stops. He’s a decent bye-week option, but there’s upside to be had at DT like never before.
DE: Denico Autry 15 PPG, Uchenna Nwosu 14 PPG (Bradley Chubb 16 PPG IR)
Denico Autry is one of the most underrated players in the IDP world. The dude has continued to produce as a top 32 clip and provides fantasy owners bargain bin contract value. (He’s signed for less than 2.3 million in both conferences.) Autry quietly delivered 11.5 sacks for a bad Titans team, which was a career-high at his age 32 season. He finished 47th in the NFL in pressures with 24 and wrangled in 50 total tackles, 2 forced fumbles, and 12 TFLs. These tackle number is what bumped him up into the high-end EDGE2 range and snagged him a new contract with the Houston Texans. Now 33, but playing along perhaps the best defensive line of his career, it’s tough to gauge what his opportunity and production will be in a new environment. The Texans used a heavy interior rotation, but they did not have a talent like Autry. He will likely be playing most of his snaps as a 3-tech, so I’m erring toward a slight regression but should flirt with low-end EDGE2 numbers.
Absolutely brutal start to the season for Uchenna Nwosu, who was expected to retake the EDGE1 spot for Seattle, but he’s now going to miss 2-6 weeks with a sprained MCL. This comes after a 2023 where he tore his pectoral in late October, resulting in another lost season. After four quality seasons as a backup with the Chargers, he took his game to the next level starting for the Seahawks in 2022, compiling 66 tackles, 9.5 sacks, 3 forced fumbles and 28 pressures (24th in NFL). It’ll take some time for him to recoup the trust in his knee upon return, so it may be close to midseason before we see the old Nwosu again. Once he returns to full capacity (and full-time starter snaps) he’ll make for a fine EDGE2.
LB: Fred Warner 19 PPG, David Long 14 PPG (Junior Colson 7 PPG, Edgerrin Cooper 5 PPG)
Good ol’ Fred Warner has been an IDP mainstay from the moment he joined the NFL and has never missed a game. He’s a 3-time All-Pro and statistically, he hit career highs in forced fumbles (4), INTs (4), and PDs (11). This upgraded him from his usual LB2 production into the overall LB4, which was a boon to anyone who bought into him as a reliable, but unspectacular IDP option. Moving forward, I’m not sure he’ll continue to hit the big play ability to that extent, but he’s well on his way to Canton. Slot him in as a low-end LB1 for 2024.
David Long Jr. was a fledgling IDP asset in a defense that hasn’t been known for LBer production in recent years. Playing second fiddle to Jerome Baker, it wasn’t surprising that Long was barely startable, averaging 13.3 PPG. There’s renewed hope with Baker gone and new DC Anthony Weaver in town, but Jordyn Brooks signed a sizeable contract to be the leader of the unit. I’m wary he won’t amount to much more than what we say last season, but hopefully his snap share will consistently stay above 80%. (It fell under 80% six times last season.) This is the final year of Long’s 2-year deal.
CB: Byron Murphy 12 PPG, Benjamin St-Juste 12 PPG (DJ Reed 12 PPG)
Byron Murphy has always teetered on the fringe top of the corner rankings, but never was quite noticeable enough to make a major impact. He’s slightly better than the JAG tier, but still is prone to the occasional bust weeks. He joined the Vikings after 4-years with the Cardinals and proved to be capable again, with 57 total tackles, 3 INTs, 13 PDs, and 1 forced fumble. He’ll be mostly outside corner with occasional slot snaps.
DJ Reed has the distinct privilege of playing opposite of one of the best cornerbacks of our generation. That isn’t to discount his talent in his own right, of which he has ample amount. The 27-year-old former 5th-round pick out of Kansas State began as a starter in 2020 and has never looked out of sorts for a defense that has asked him to cover elite receivers who were trying to shy away from the Sauce. This has provided Reed 3-straight years of CB1 fantasy numbers, including last year’s 76 tackles, 1 forced fumble, 1 INT, and 9 PDs. (14 games) Now one of the safest bets at a volatile position, Reed should be locked into your lineups weekly with a safe floor.
One of the best positives a corner can have (or any position, really) is consistency. Benjamin St-Juste isn’t the most talented or high-profile player, but he provided a stable floor of points at a position not known for it. For 11 out of 13 weeks (weeks 3 through 16) St-Juste only scored under 10 points once. As a whole, he provided 67 total tackles 2 forced fumbles, 1 INT, 1 sack, and 17 PDs. Certainly starting again for Dan Quinn’s defense, he’ll be tasked with leading one of the worst secondaries in the NFL. Godspeed, St-Juste – handle all the tackles you can muster.
S: Derwin James 18 PPG, Harrison Smith 12 PPG (Nick Cross 11 PPG, Bryan Cook 10 PPG)
It was the typical stud muffin delux season for Derwin James… and he only missed one game! He played the entirety of the IFL postseason too, delivering a stellar week 17, 36-point outburst. Now entering a new scheme, there will be a bit of a question on how he’ll be utilized, but it would be foolish for Harbaugh to not utilize his best defender in optimal situations. His annual 100+ tackles and 5-10 big plays are to be expected.
It was more of the same from Harrison Smith, who at 34 years old is still producing quality seasons. While the end is near for the 2012 1st round pick, he’s likely Canton-bound when he calls it quits. Last season, he averaged 13.5 PPG, including a massive 60-point outburst in week 4 with 3 sacks. For most of the season, however, he wasn’t serviceable as he played next to tackle eaters Camryn Bynum and Josh Metellus. Smith played all over the field, so he’s worth a flyer as a back-end option, but is not someone I’d want to trust in my lineups to provide quality PPG weekly.
Off: Los Angeles Chargers 10 PPG
PPG: 279
W-L: 2-15
X-Factor: Learning the nuances of a very complicated game.
After taking over the Panthers, Blake has been slowly building this team back up. Granted it will be an arduous task that will take a couple more years, but it is leaps and bounds ahead of where it was this time last year. There are young pieces across the roster, including an impressive rookie crop of Rome Odzuze, Trey Benson, Adonai Mitchell, Byron Murphy, Junior Colson, and Edgerrin Cooper. While many of these guys need a bit of seasoning on the opportunity front, it’s hard to argue about their talent. This year will be one of development for the incoming GM, previewing how our game’s intricacies work in-season. (player valuations in season and how our scoring operates compared to “normal” leagues come to mind) This time next year, he could be in a very different position.
