Coach: Sean McDermott 8 PPG
QB: Lamar Jackson 35 PPG
Just gonna go out on a limb and say that Lamar Jackson did not receive the proper fanfare for the 2nd highest IFL scoring effort of all time. His 607-point output was stupid good and MVP-worthy in almost any season. He deserved his third and was undoubtedly better than Josh Allen in fantasy. (Who had a historically good season in his own right.) Lamar is the total package, finishing with 4,172 passing yards (6th in the NFL), 41 passing TDs (2nd in the NFL), and a video-game looking 915 rushing yards (1st in the NFL). His passing took a major step forward, particularly under pressure, resulting in a career high in passing yards. A conversation about Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson is going to start soon, and it will begin when their athleticism starts to decline. This recent passing development with Lamar points to a world where he can age gracefully, with less emphasis on his legs. When that day comes, which will be in 2-3 years, don’t be surprised that he will still post top 10 fantasy numbers. For now, he remains the best option at the position.
RB/WR/TE: TE George Kittle 24 PPG, RB David Montgomery 19 PPG, WR Davante Adams 19 PPG, WR Mike Evans 19 PPG, TE Evan Engram 15 PPG 6th men: WR DJ Moore 14 PPG, TE Jake Ferguson 13 PPG, WR Christian Watson 8 PPG, RB Blake Corum 7 PPG, WR Kendrick Bourne 6 PPG
We’re finally gonna get it – it being George Kittle as the #1 San Francisco receiving weapon over a full season. Over the 9ers’ recent glory days, he’s often been the tertiary option behind Deebo and Aiyuk, but the former was jettisoned across the country, and Aiyuk is coming off a major injury. We caught a glimpse of what world we live in now, and it resulted in the WWE star finishing 13th in receiving yards among WRs and TEs (1,106), 24th in receptions (78), and 15th in TDs (8). About to be 32 in October, he’s still well within his prime and a favorite to finish as the TE1. He’s locked in the top 12 RB/WR/TE in the IFL.
It finally happened… Jahmyr Gibbs passed David Montgomery as the main running back on the Detroit Lions. Granted, Monty still received more carries in close to 50% of the games, but this represents progress for the Gibbs’ Bros. Monty is one of the beneficiaries of our 0.4 points per carry rule, as he retained value as a physical, grind-it-out running back. He is a tone-setting rusher, one that the Dan Campbell Lions love. New Lions OC John Morton has emphasized explosive plays as part of his big picture plan in replacing Ben Johnson, which should not mean much of a change, as they were one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL. However, there is a very real risk Monty is not utilized as much, especially with Gibbs coming into his own in his third season. They may also want to keep him healthy by scaling back his workload, as he missed the end of last season with a torn MCL and is prone to annual injuries. At a 19 PPG projection staying at a 40/60 timeshare with Gibbs, but there is some risk of regression both from a carries and TD perspective. He’s an excellent 3rd or 4th option on a championship offense.
Time rolls on, but Davante Adams still produces elite receiving numbers. Forging his reputation with Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay, he’s oddly now three stops post his original home. He joins another veteran QB who is on the 18th hole of his career, Matthew Stafford, who must be downright giddy that he gets to play with the future Hall of Famer. The Rams expect Adams to slide into the high-target role Cooper Kupp vacated, although it won’t be a 1-1 replacement. One thing that has always benefited Adams’ fantasy value is his redzone prowess, as he’s wrangled over 8 receiving TDs in 8 of the last 9 years. With the Rams, he’ll continue to be a quality #3 option for a championship team, so long as there’s no decline of play snags from either Stafford or Adams.
Week 18 featured an incredible moment for the all-time best Bucs receiver, who missed the better part of 4 games after sacrificing his body for a TD in the back of the endzone. The Bucs were going to win the game, but that didn’t stop them from getting their star player over 1,000 yards for the 11th straight season with a last-second pass. Evans finished 23rd in receiving yards (1,004), 27th in catches (74), and 4th in TDs (11). The 32-year-old is going through another playcaller transition. Still, he’s endured so many offensive coordinator changes that the Bucs could throw out a pre-teen picking plays from a Madden playbook, and I’d be confident he’d still produce fantasy numbers. He’s confidently on the 3rd or 4th starter borderline, as he has been since I’ve been writing these.
I’m so f$cking tired of hearing the word Joker when it comes to Sean Payton’s offense. Evan Engram is now their Joker, I guess, the do-it-all offensive playmaker who will be featured in their offense. Or maybe it’ll be RJ Harvey. Or Pat Bryant. Bleh. Anyway, Engram revitalized his career in Jacksonville, where he occasionally was their primary option in the passing game. 2023 saw him catch 114 targets and hit 963 yards, so a 300+ point season is within reach. 2024 saw him miss half the year with hamstring and shoulder surgery, and he was subsequently released by the Jags in March. I’m a bit skeptical about what his role will be in this offense. Perhaps he can be a secondary option in the passing game, but he’s never been a red-zone weapon (6 TDs in his rookie year was his career high). I’d bet he’ll be a stable #5 when healthy.
PK: Ka’imi Fairbairn 10 PPG
PN: Riley Dixon 11 PPG
DT: Cameron Heyward 17 PPG
2024 was another trademark year for Cameron Heyward, who just did his normal, high-tackle, high-sack-type season. He noted 71 total stops, 8 sacks, and a career-high 11 PDs, slotting in as DT8 with a 291-point effort. At 36, the end could come at any time, but it feels like he’s past the point where a decline would sharply reduce his fantasy production. Outside his injury-marred 2023, he’s been a stalwart of consistency through the 2020s. He’s precisely what any championship contender would want at DT; an economical IFL contract and a high likelihood of production.
DE: DJ Wonnum 15 PPG, Nick Bonitto 15 PPG (Will McDonald 13 PPG)
DJ Wonnum was an afterthought to start 2024 after he dealt with a long recovery from a torn quadriceps to end the year prior. When he did return, he quickly made folks remember he is perhaps the most underrated IDP EDGE in the game. He played significant snaps for a defense desperate for any assistance, averaging 18.4 PPG in the IFL. Nothing is stopping Wonnum from again being the #1 EDGE on this below-average team, with no significant free agent signings and the two day 2 rookies baking in the oven. Wonnum is the ideal EDGE2 to provide a stable floor.
It was a full-on breakout for 25-year-old Nik Bonitto, who received DPOY love for his 13.5 sack effort for a resurgent Broncos’ defense. Bonitto finished 10th in pressures with 36, along with 48 tackles, 2 FFs, 1 INT, and 2 TDs. There are a couple of flags that give me pause in projecting him to take another step forward as an IDP asset. The tackle numbers are ok, but not great. The other is the highly unlikely event that he replicates another 2 TD season. Still, his role is only to grow as he continues to develop, so he’ll stay as a mid-range EDGE2.
LB: Logan Wilson 19 PPG, Alex Singleton 19 PPG, Nick Bolton 17 PPG, Jaylon Carlies 17 PPG
Logan Wilson was having another typical, quality season before a knee injury pumped the breaks in week 11. The 2020 3rd round pick out of Wyoming has been the mainstay in Cincinnati’s defense since 2021, and has been the linebacker they’ve elected to build around through the decade. Now 29, Wilson will be expected to lead the unit through a defensive transition and continue to be a tackle-eater. He routinely put up top 20 tackle numbers, and there’s no reason to expect anything different.
Alex Singleton has been one of these bums who somehow keeps getting opportunities through his tackle-eating prowess. Last year saw him tear his ACL in week 3 against the Bucs, which left a hole for his lovely IDP owners. The UDFA is quite the success story, as a UDFA from Montana State, and continues to lead the Broncos’ linebacker room. The two years prior saw him eclipse 160 tackles, but he rarely chips in big plays. Still, with the tackle volume, he’s likely to finish near the top 10 in the linebacker rankings with his incredible consistency.
Nick Bolton experienced a bit of a regression for his IDP owners after dealing with a litany of injuries in 2023. There was also the 2-year long contract concern in Kansas City, but they decided to lock him up long-term. Bolton wasn’t the tackle hog he’s been in years past, but few owners will complain about his LB30 finish, so long as the expectation isn’t top 5 production anymore. Perhaps that’s still in the range of outcomes, but he’ll need to beef up the big plays a bit more to get there. Bolton should finish as back-end LB2, which is very valuable in our shallow LB league.
This spring, Jaylon Carlies walked through a minefield within a Vietnam jungle and came out the other side ready to eat some Pho. While he still needs to earn the starting role in training camp, he hasn’t been drafted or signed over by the Indy front office. It makes sense too, as he impressed in limited snaps, particularly in coverage. (83.1 PFF coverage grade) We’ve seen this weakside role provide quality fantasy value from EJ Speed, and his fantasy owners would be mighty happy if they could get three years of LB2 production on a rookie contract.
CB: Zyon McCollum 11 PPG, DJ Reed 11 PPG
The corners in Tampa’s scheme love themselves some tackles, and Zyon McColuum is no different. In a full-time role, he notched 82 total tackles, 2 INTs, and 17 PDs, resulting in a top 14 corner effort. Zyon will have to earn his role again as the Bucs drafted corners in rounds 2 and 3, but he’s well worth a flyer if he can remain a full-time starter.
It didn’t take long for DJ Reed to sign as one of the premier free agents of the 2024 class, joining the Detroit Lions’ pursuit of a Super Bowl. Fantasy-wise, I’m not so sure this will be much more than a streaming option, but Reed has consistently posted high tackle numbers in the former zone-heavy defense of New York. New Lions’ DC Kelvin Sheppard was an in-house promotion, so I’d bet we won’t see an upgrade for corners on this team. Outside of the slot CB, Lions corners haven’t been fantasy factors.
S: Quentin Lake 15, Reed Blankenship 14 PPG (Donovan Wilson 13 PPG, Ifeatu Melifonwu 13 PPG, Malik Mustapha 13 PPG PUP likely, Jason Pinnock 12 PPG starter until Mustapha returns?)
Outside of week 18, when the starters were rested, Quentin Lake didn’t miss a snap for the Rams. That’s an incredible feat for any player, especially one who logged 1,207 snaps. Lake’s usage is ideal, with well over 50% of snaps coming in the box and at slot corner. Last year’s 14.6 PPG with these numbers is ripe for progression, as he only delivered 2 sacks for big plays (0 INTs) and only 5 PDs. He’s a dark horse for a top 5 safety finish and a locked-in top 16 option.
After finishing as a S1 in 2023, Reed Blankenship took a step back in the counting stats, but it was oddly a down year for safeties across the board. The UDFA from Middle Tennessee tallied 78 tackles, 4 INTs, and 6 PDs for a S31 finish. The regression likely stems from a dramatic improvement in linebacker play, as Zack Baun and Nakobe Dean were tackle machines. With the DC Vic Fangio retained and Baun staying in the middle, we’ve likely seen the best of Blankenship for IDP purposes, but he’s a decent bet to stick around the S2 ranks in a full-time role.
Off: Baltimore Ravens 15 PPG
PPG: 345
W-L: 13-4
X-Factor: What’re we doing at the deadline to increase the ceiling?
This is perhaps the best team Matt has ever gone into the season with. Matt’s roster has all the tools for a deep postseason run, and it stems from focusing on building out a quality 22. Of course, there’s star power at the top in Lamar and Kittle, but savvy, economical vet contracts like Cameron Heyward and DJ Wonnum. Once an annual weakness, the linebacker room is now stocked with four quality options and a few cheap flyers, including Nate Landman, Anthony Walker, and Malik Harrison. Clearly, a GM who did his homework in the offseason, don’t be surprised if Matt comes out of the AFC.
