Coach – Jim Harbaugh 6 PPG
QB: Josh Allen 35 PPG
Before Josh Allen came to town, it was difficult to imagine a QB having an elite fantasy ceiling in the snowy and windy city of Buffalo. It took a freakish human to do so, one that isn’t necessarily built like a typical pocket passer, and more so like a doughy linebacker. Allen took his game to another level by subtraction of turnovers, which resulted in a by-far career best 28/6 TD/INT ratio. This turned in his first MVP trophy, although you could make an argument he’s deserved it 1-2 other times since 2020. Outside of INTs, Allen’s counting stats took a mild step back, finishing 14th in passing yards (3731), 5th in rushing yards (531), 8th in passing TDs (28), and 2nd in rushing TDs (12). Like many other QBs at the top of the fantasy pyramid, his rushing upside keeps him in the elite tier conversation, and his extreme use of his legs at the goal line raises his ceiling considerably. It’ll likely be a competition between him and Lamar for the top spot in fantasy again.
RB/WR/TE: TE Trey McBride 24 PPG, WR Justin Jefferson 21 PPG, WR Amon-Ra St. Brown 20 PPG, RB Omarion Hampton 17 PPG, WR Jameson Williams 16 PPG 6th men: TE Isaiah Likely 13 PPG, RB Tank Bigsby 12 PPG, RB Raheem Mostert 11 PPG, RB Jaylen Wright 9 PPG, WR Joshua Palmer 10 PPG, Adonai Mitchell 4 PPG, Ben Sinnott 3 PPG
Let me tell y’all something. Kyler Murray will need some witness protection from Trey McBride fantasy owners if it takes til week 17 for him to land his first TD!!! That didn’t stop him from averaging an incredible 22.9 PPG, but man, what last season could have been if Murray was the least bit accurate. It’s not like Trey wasn’t a target either (ala Evan Engram). McBride finished 3rd in TE redzone looks at 21, but wrangled a pathetic 47.6% (10) of those looks. The two who finished above him, Kelce and Kittle, had 73% and 86% respectively. With just a mild uptick in TD grabs, McBride is a screaming value for progression. Nothing has changed with his situation, and he should be a top 16 RB/WR/TE again.
We’ve seen Justin Jefferson progress through a litany of interesting QB situations, but even in the darkest days, he’s shown he’s QB-proof. The 26-year-old was one of the best receivers in the league from the jump and has consistently showcased a quality fantasy ceiling. Last year, under a resurgent Sam Darnold, JJ finished 6th in targets (150), 6th in receptions (103), 2nd in receiving yards (1533), and 8th in TDs (10), good for a 26th place finish among RB/WR/TEs. His numbers were a bit down from his heyday with Cousins (2022’s 1809 being the high point), but no one should be complaining for an over 20 PPG, full healthy year. With newcomer JJ McCarthy in the fold, expect him to be peppered with targets as a safety blanket when the thunder gets too loud. I don’t expect JJ to come close to exceeding his career highs unless McCarthy is a world-beater right away, but he’ll be a quality #2 for a championship offense. (like most elite WRs in our league are)
Amon-Ra St. Brown is simply an incredible success story. A 4th round pick, no one could have expected him to be such a dynamic receiver from the get-go. Even in his rookie year, he was peppered with 119 targets. 2024 saw him take a step back from an opportunity standpoint, but he still finished at the RB/WR/TE21 in PPG. He was 9th in targets (140), 2nd in receptions (115), 5th in yards (1263), and 3rd in TDs (12). One thing to keep an eye on is the target distribution, as OC John Morton has expressed interest in throwing the ball deep down the field, routes St. Brown isn’t often asked to run. 12 TDs was also a career high, so there’s potential for a small step back there as well. Still, this PPR dynamo will continue to be a stud muffin delux in every sense of the word.
Omarion Hampton earned a reputation as a quality back next to college super stud Drake Maye. After Maye left for the draft, it was expected Hampton’s production would scale back without him, and the opposite occurred. His YPC stayed at a robust 5.9, and his receiving usage also increased to 38 receptions for 373 yards. This earned him a mid-first-round selection by the run-focused Chargers. Unfortunately, they had already signed former 1st rounder Najee Harris, who is coming off 4-straight 1,000-yard rushing seasons with 29 receptions or more every year since 2020. The Big O is a very tough projection, as we don’t know how his role will be split between him and Harris. In particular, whoever gets the 3rd down and goalline carries is very much TBD. Hampton will have a role, but expecting him to be a 20 PPG player out of the gate is asking too much, given he’s playing alongside an established veteran. I expect the Chargers to ease him into action, while Harris is the primary back for much of his rookie year. (similar to Gibbs in 2023)
Jameson Williams is a tough projection, as I weigh a couple of competing factors. One, there’s the annual talk of the Lions excited about the steps Jame-0 has taken as a player, expressing interest in featuring more deep ball targets in their offense. Then there’s the loss of the league’s best offensive playcaller in Ben Johnson. Williams had a 16.7 PPG finish last year, providing a pretty stable floor for fantasy owners who stuck with him through the bad times. Despite missing three games, he wrapped up with 90 targets (46th), 58 receptions (56th), 1001 yards (24th), and 7 TDs (25th). I’m optimistic he stays in line with these numbers and forecasts him within the Jordan Addison/Devonta Smith type production. That’s mighty fine for a #5 option.
PK: Matt Gay 8 PPG
PN: Logan Cooke 10 PPG
DT: Dexter Lawrence 17 PPG
It’s hard not to root for the fat guys to be fantasy factors. Dexter Lawrence, all 340lbs of him, has become one of the best IDP assets in our game, behind an incredible display of pass rushing ability. He gives hope for all of us drafters who take players his size to produce at every facet. (T’Vdonre Sweat and Deone Walker come to mind) Lawrence was on an absolute tear to start the year, tallying 9 sacks before a dislocated elbow ended his season in week 11. The question becomes, can he continue this torrid pace of sacks, or was this a career best? Sexy Dexy is in the prime of his career, turning 28 in November, and has another 7-sack season to his name. Unfortunately, he tallied those 9 sacks on 18 pressures, and before the elbow issue, he came crashing back to earth with no sacks the month before the elbow. I still like Lawrence as a top 10 option, but signs point to regression.
DE: Gregory Rousseau 15 PPG, YaYa Diaby 14 PPG (Nolan Smith 13 PPG, Malcolm Koonce 12 PPG, Isaiah McGuire 10 PPG, Myles Murphy 9 PPG)
Ol’ Gregory Rousseau finally showcased the upside we knew he was capable of as a 1st first-round pick back in 2020. After receiving a career high 860 snaps, he delivered 53 total tackles, 3 FFs, and 8 sacks on 35 pressures, good for 11th in the league. These were career-high numbers across the board, so can he replicate them again? I worry that the EDGE room lacked depth, which was uncharacteristic for a Sean McDermott squad. He is known for his rotations, which have been an annual headache for IDP owners. (Ask Ed Oliver GMs) Buffalo replaced Von Miller and Dawaune Smoot with Joey Bosa, Michael Hoecht, and Landon Jackson, while AJ Epensesa is still in town. Hoecht is suspended to begin the year, and Bosa is a chronic injury risk, so hopefully Rousseau can continue his ample opportunity. That being said, I’m giving him a small downtick in production with the additions, but I’m hopeful he can continue to be a back-end EDGE2 for fantasy.
It’s been tough sledding for the Bucs EDGE room in recent years. Former first-rounder Joe Tryon didn’t pan out, but 3rd round pick YaYa Diaby has provided stable production. Last year did not provide the step forward many were expecting after a 7-sack rookie season, but 4.5 sacks on 32 pressures was bad luck. What is encouraging is to see him receive 841 sacks and log a full season. Diaby’s tackle numbers took a step forward with more opportunity as well, tallying 54 stops, along with a forced fumble. There will be a battle for snaps, as Diaby now has to contend with Haason Reddick, early day 3 pick David Walker, and last year’s day 2 selection Chris Braswell for playing time. For now, he’s a quality bye-week filler, but I wouldn’t want to trust him to be a starter until we see him finally produce startable numbers.
LB: Tremaine Edmunds 15 PPG, Trevin Wallace 14 PPG, Pete Werner 14 PPG, Trenton Simpson 12 PPG (DeMarvion Overshown 17 PPG PUP likely)
In theory, it was going to be a good transition for Edmunds to land in a spot for full-time snaps, but man, he’s still barely startable. Last year saw him take a step back, somehow only registering 110 total tackles on 1056 snaps. Edmunds has annually been an inefficient producer and rarely chips in big plays, so this is hardly a surprise. At just 27, entering his 8th year in the league, maybe this will be the year it finally clicks. He’s the Kyle Pitts of IDP and belongs in the LB4 starter tier.
Trevin Wallace enters training camp in a battle for snaps against incoming signing Christian Rozeboom. Wallace, who saw starting snaps after Shaq Thompson went down, was unsurprisingly inconsistent through his first taste of action. He was immediately thrown into full-time snaps, which were scaled back as the season wore on. His season ended in week 14 after a shoulder injury. Wallace is still only 22 and has plenty of time to acclimate to the pro game. He’s a tough projection as there were flashes of good and bad in 2024. I wouldn’t want to have him as a trusted starter, but he could end up as a top 40 option if they trust him to play full-time snaps again.
Pete Werner stans have been patiently waiting for some uptick in production, and unfortunately, he’s just not been consistent from a snap or tackle efficiency perspective and has never posted a complete season in 4 years of IDP. Under a new scheme, there is renewed hope Werner can take that fruitful step forward many have been patiently waiting for. Personally, I’d be surprised. A tackle increase, sure. But he has 1(!!!!) INT, sack, and forced fumble through 4 fucking years. Only 5 total PDs too. He’s best suited as bye-week filler.
It was liftoff time for Trenton Simpson, whose runway was cleared after Patrick Queen left for Pittsburgh. Expected to take over full-time snaps, that ended up not being close to the case in 2024, as evidenced by a middling 58.7 PFF grade, ranking 124th out of 189 linebackers. Now, another year wiser, he must prove to the Ravens he can handle a larger workload. Thankfully, Malik Harrison and Chris Board are no longer with the team, replaced by free agent Jake Hummel and promising rookie Teddye Buchanan. It’s possible Simpson carves out a full-time role, but the opportunity came last year and he couldn’t capitalize. Treat him as a bye-week option as a quality dynasty prospect.
CB: Kamari Lassiter 12 PPG, Will Johnson 11 PPG (Sauce Gardner 10 PPPG, Terrion Arnold 9 PPG)
It was a stellar rookie season for Kamari Lassiter, who proved to the NFL that he could be a full-time starter. Playing opposite one of the best corners in the game in Derek Singley, Lassiter can expect to be peppered with targets. Last year saw him wrangle 58 tackles, 3 INTs, and 10 PDs in only 14 games. I’m treating him as an annual top 20 option moving forward.
Rookie Will Johnson received some 1st round love, but fell in the draft due to injury concerns. There’s little doubt, however, he’ll be a starter sooner rather than later. I like the opportunity for targets in this offense as well, with his corner buddy Garrett Williams being a competent option across the field. For now, he’s a decent option as a #2.
S: Kevin Byard 14 PPG, Jordan Battle 13 PPG (Calen Bullock 11 PPG Ji’Ayir Brown 10 PPG)
Kevin Byard feels like he’s been a part of our game forever, and well, he has. He started with us in 2016 and has posted many, many quality IDP seasons. Last year was arguably his best, with a career high 130 total tackles, 2 sacks, 1 forced fumble, an INT, and 7 PDs. A bit different than his 80 tackle, 8 INT days early in his career, but when inefficient linebackers like Tremaine Edmunds play in front of you, you have the ability to soak up the stats. I don’t expect Byard to land those lofty tackle stats again, but he still makes for a mighty fine top 20 option at 32-years-old.
It’s wheels up for Jordan Battle, who should finally receive full-time snaps in Cincinnati. A new defensive chief is in town in Al Golden, and no one behind him should vie for the starting gig. Battle is a tough projection as this is a new DC in the professional ranks, and the presence of Von Bell handcuffed last year’s snaps. The 13 PPG projection comes with 100 total tackles and 3-4 big plays.
Off: Minnesota Vikings 12 PPG (Los Angeles Rams 12 PPG)
PPG: 320
W-L: 7-10
X-Factor: Brown Dot U and the EDGE guys produce much higher returns than their projections.
There are just too many what-ifs, particularly on the defensive side, to be comfortable projecting a playoff team. The cards could fall in Kyle’s favor with this offense being in a good place, but he’ll likely need to offload additional draft capital to improve defensively. It takes a full roster of 22 players, and as of this writing, this team is incomplete to be a championship contender.
