Coach: Todd Bowles 6 PPG
QB: CJ Stroud 25 PPG
From a fantasy perspective, after a 28 PPG rookie season, it was incredibly disappointing when Stroud regressed into an unstartable 22 PPG, finishing QB24 in PPG. The regression was most notable in passing yards (4,108 to 3,727), TDs (23 to 20), and a significant INT (5 to 12) regression, all despite an increase in completions (319 to 336). There can be a litany of reasons to blame for this, including all three of his top WRs missing multiple weeks, his offensive line being deplorable, and his OC being inept, leading to his firing after the season. Stroud needs to return to his former rookie progress, at least for fantasy. They revitalized their wide receiver room and brought in a McVay acolyte, Nick Caley. 2025 is a critical season for his future prospects. We’ve seen what he’s capable of, but he must become consistent.
RB/WR/TE: Kyren Williams 24 PPG, De’Von Achane 23 PPG, Christian McCaffrey 23 PPG, DeVonta Smith 16 PPG, Tucker Kraft 15 PPG 6th men: Isiah Pacheco 17 PPG, Tyrone Tracy 15 PPG, Brenton Strange 13 PPG, Brandon Aiyuk 11 PPG, Elijah Moore 9 PPG
Back-to-back seasons of top 16 RB/WR/TE production from Kyren Williams have led him to some polarizing opinions, but there should be no doubt that, so long as he stays healthy, he’s going to be a beast. He finished with 316 attempts (3rd in the NFL), 1299 yards (7th), 14 rushing TDs (6th) on a disappointing 4.11 YPC. (2023 sat at 5.02 YPC, on 80 fewer carries, so volume likely played a factor.) Receiving-wise, he is a contributor, with 34 catches, 182 yards, and another 2 TDs. The Rams and Kyren are exploring an extension with the 4th year, 5th rounder out of Notre Dame, who has been one of the biggest surprises the NFL has seen over the past half-decade. As of this writing, it’s about 50/50 on whether an extension will be solidified before the start of the season. Blake Corum and Jarquez Hunter GMs await with great suspense.
De’Von Achane is in a bit of an interesting situation heading into 2025. The Dolphins’ offense is quietly undergoing a transition period. Former RB-mate Raheem Mostert is gonezo, and unproven 2nd year RB Jaylen Wright is expected to fill in. Waddle and Tyreek are both coming off tragic seasons, and Tyreek, in particular, is a lock to be cut in the spring because no one is paying that man a $51 million cap hit. Then there’s Tua… and we all know about his head. That leaves the pint-sized demon as arguably the best offensive weapon for Miami heading into this year. At the very least, he is the most consistent. Last year, he played every game, finishing with 203 carries (22nd in the NFL), 907 rushing yards (20th), 6 rushing touchdowns (26th), and 4.47 yards per carry. If you know anything about his fantasy profile, he is a top 3 receiving back, with 85 targets (2nd among RBs), 78 receptions (by far 1st), 592 yards (1st), and 6 receiving TDs. De’Von is not talked about enough as a member of the fantasy elite, and he no doubt belongs there. He’s a locked-in #1/#2 RB/WR/TE.
When you’re a Christian McCaffrey owner, you’re playing a game of Roulette. If you land on black, you’re in for an enjoyable fantasy season. If you land on red, good luck picking up the pieces when 15% of your total cap is allocated to a nothing burger. Thankfully, we’re trending in a positive direction, as CMC is fully healthy and no longer has Achilles tendonitis. Nope. Won’t hear it. Projecting his usage is a curious game. I don’t see the 9ers utilizing him as an 80-85% usage back anymore and expect him to make it through a full season. A more realistic scenario is he’s still the starter, but gets around 200-220 carries with his 50-60 receptions, along with a dozen TDs. That’ll put him in the Alvin Kamara tier of running backs, and at this stage, that’s probably where he belongs if he’s to remain fit. Tough projection tho, we all know he delivers cheat code type numbers at his best.
DeVonta Smith did his usual #4/5 RB/WR/TE thing we’ve seen over the past 4 seasons. He hovered around 1,000 receiving yards and 5-8 scores in the prolific offense of Philadelphia. His receiving totals were down just a touch, as he missed three games due to back and hamstring issues. What’s a blessing about his profile is that he’s one of the surefire projections our game has to offer. Smith could always ascend if AJ Brown were to miss significant time, but the Slim Reaper is arguably the best secondary target in the game today.
I am dying for Tucker Kraft to take a step forward into fantasy stardom. He gives off the George Kittle vibes of an all-purpose weapon that just needs opportunity to succeed in a significant way. The receiving weapons continue to disappoint year after year for the Packers, and it was a bit puzzling that Kraft couldn’t get more than 2-5 targets most weeks. Sadly, it’s a very balanced offense, and it appears that won’t change this year. For now, he’s gonna stay at 55-60 receptions, 750 yards, and a half a dozen TDs, but he has the talent to be so much more if they begin to feature him as a secondary option in their passing game.
PK: Tyler Bass 10 PPG
PN: Rigoberto Sanchez 10 PPG
DT: Christian Baremore 14 PPG (Adam Butler 13 PPG, Jarran Reed 12 PPG)
It’s been a hot minute, but Christian Barmore appears to be ready to return after a scary battle with blood clots. He’s been fully healthy through the offseason program and appears to be slotted to take over his old starting role with New England. Now there are many other aspects to overcome to become an ascending IDP talent again. Barmore only has one season of startability, where he recorded 69 total tackles, 1 forced fumble, 6 PDs, and 8 sacks, finishing as the DT7. He is also in a new scheme, with some uncertainty regarding his alignment and snap share. For now, he’s at a safe and productive 14 PPG with upside for more.
DE: Myles Garrett 19 PPG, Brian Burns 18 PPG (Derick Hall 12 PPG, Leonard Floyd 12 PPG)
It was another year of productivity for arguably this generation’s best pass rusher, Myles Garrett. He finished 4th in pressures with 44, 2nd in sacks with 14, 22 TFLs, and an underwhelming 47 tackles. More often than not, he was serviceable, but it’s notable 3 of his games he finished with 6 or less points and also missed a game. This marks the 7th straight year with over 10 sacks, and Garrett is entering his age-29 season. Fresh off signing a new contract with Cleveland, Myles will be handsomely paid into the back 9 of his prime. Even with one of the worst teams in the league, he’s a set-it-and-forget-it type of player for our game.
We saw Brian Burns continue to be a boss ass IDP bitch in 2024, just eating up the counting stats in New York. This year wasn’t necessarily an increase in pressures or sacks, which were still at a healthy 34 (13th in the NFL) and 8.5 sacks (22nd), but his total tackles significantly raised his floor. A career high 71 total tackles, along with 2 forced fumbles and 8 PDs, resulted in an EDGE4 finish for the star-studded pass rusher. Scheme-wise, nothing has changed for Burns, but we need to keep a close eye on his usage, as an asteroid-sized Abdul Carter is set to land in MetLife. Likely to affect Kayvon more, Burns may lose out on some snaps. For now, he stays within the top 10 EDGE finishers, but there’s some variance here.
LB: Jordyn Brooks 19 PPG, Terrel Bernard 17 PPG, Mack Wilson 16 PPG, Devine Deablo 15 PPG
Jordyn Brooks didn’t miss a beat in his new surroundings on the other side of the country, going from Seattle to Miami. Finishing as the LB14 in PPG, Brooks tallied 143 tackles, 3 sacks, and 6 PDs. The former 1st round pick will man the middle for Miami for the foreseeable future, and there aren’t many other quality players to steal away tackles from him either. He’s the type of player to build an IDP roster around and has proven over the last half-decade that he’s as consistent as they come. He’s a locked-in LB1.
It was a bit of an up-and-down season for Terrell Bernard, who missed multiple weeks over the season with a pectoral strain and an ankle issue. Thankfully he worked through both issues and still finished the season with over 100 tackles, 2 INTs 1 sack and 3 PDs. Those are LB2 numbers over a full season, but his tackles and big plays both regressed after his second year as a full-time starter. I’m encouraged that the big plays will continue in the 5-8 range, and he’s the linebacker the Bills have elected to build around. He’s slotted in as a fringe top 32 option, but there is upside for more.
Mack Wilson has taken his time to develop as a linebacker, moving around from Cleveland to New England to Arizona. Last year, he played a hybrid middle linebacker/edge role for DC Nick Rallis’ defense. While his alignment/usage is still up in the air, there’s little doubt he’ll be playing 100% of the snaps, as it’s been confirmed he is the playcaller for the Cardinals this year. In an ideal world, Wilson will play more inside backer snaps with his new responsibilities, and that’s trending to be the case with incoming help at EDGE. He’s primed for a breakout year at linebacker, as we see year after year when a player is given additional opportunity. Treat him as a high-end LB3.
I think we were foolish to consider anyone other than Devine Deablo to be a near full-time linebacker for the Atlanta Falcons. He’s receiving the same APY as Kaden Ellis in 2025 (7-million), and the rookies are being paid a seventh of his cost. If they had any faith in Tory Anderson or JD Bertrand, they would have allocated those resources elsewhere. That being said, I do not think Deablo is a good player and a major factor for IDP. He’s at 15 PPG for opportunity alone, has struggled to stay on the field, and has chipped in two big plays in four years in Vegas. There is also a possibility of Deablo wearing the Green Dot this season, locking him into a full-time role, however, that hasn’t been confirmed, yet. He’s a fringe starter on opportunity alone, but I’ve written about him like this for many years. High on potential, low on impact.
CB: Kenny Moore 12 PPG, N/A 10 PPG (Ennis Rakestraw 8 PPG)
Every year, I write about the glorious IDP value Captain Kenny Moore provides. He’s such a stable and consistent corner that he’s been an annual safe bet to be startable since 2018. There aren’t many corners that could be considered for an IFL HOF, but Kenny may have a moment or two to bring him into consideration. The UDFA out of Valdosta State will continue to be the slot corner for Indy and play outside in base defense. He’ll eclipse 70 total tackles, and throw in 4-5 big plays with a 50% chance for a touchdown. He’s a top 16 option, no matter the matchup.
S: Josh Metellus 15 PPG, Talanoa Hufanga 13 PPG (Tykee Smith 13 PPG, Will Harris 12 PPG, Julian Blackmon 11 PPG)
What’s fun about Josh Metellus is that he plays almost all of his snaps within the box. There are very few safeties who play strong safety, linebacker, and slot corner alignments like he does, without the drawback of playing deep. While his 2023 showcased a major breakout with over 115 tackles and 7 big plays, he came crashing back down to Earth with only 103 tackles and 3 big plays, good for a S18 finish. That is still adequate, but not what one would expect with this incredible usage. I’m hoping for a bit more from Josh, who could progress back into a top 10 option.
Talanoa Hufanga began his career as a high-potential prospect, as he was a big-play machine during his time at USC. He quickly proved himself in San Francisco, leading to a full-time role in 2022, which ultimately resulted in an incredible All-Pro selection. The two years after were marred by injuries to his ACL and wrist. The 9ers elected not to resign him, and he signed a multi-year deal with the Broncos. From a fantasy perspective, it’s about the worst-case scenario. They already have box safety delux in Brandon Jones and tackle hog linebacker Alex Singleton. Unfortunately, I don’t expect great things here from a fantasy perspective. Hopefully, he can finally stay healthy, but he’s shaping up to be one of the litany of opportunity options at safety.
Off: San Francisco 49ers 12 PPG
PPG: 332
W-L: 10-7
X-Factor: Better injury luck to your top options.
Dave has assembled another solid squad that can compete for the AFC crown. The running back unit is absolutely stacked, and the EDGE/linebacker room fields playoff units, too. I’ve come away really impressed with his offseason work, notably the key signing of Christian McCaffrey. In a hyper-competitive AFC West, this team could easily be at the top as we head into December.
