Coach: Matt LaFleur 7 PPG
QB: Joe Burrow 33 PPG
For the Bengals, it was another typical disappointing effort, where the team couldn’t really get out of its own way. The defense couldn’t get it’s footing and their typical early season struggles stopped their talented roster from even making the postseason. That didn’t stop Joe Burrow from going Supernova and putting the team on his back. While he wasn’t seriously in the MVP conversation, he probably should have been. He cleared the 2nd place finisher, Jared Goff, in passing yards by almost 300 yards (4918), 2nd place Baker Mayfield in completions by 53 (460), and 2nd in Lamar Jackson in passing TDs by 2 (43). With Ja’Marr and Tee locked up long-term, Burrow profiles as a top 5 annual QB in perpetuity. He’s one of the true set it and forget it options.
RB/WR/TE: Chase Brown 24 PPG, Brock Bowers 23 PPG, James Cook 21 PPG, David Njoku 18 PPG, Ladd McConkey 17 PPG 6th men: TreVeyon Henderson 14 PPG, George Pickens 14 PPG, Brenton Strange 13 PPG, Elijah Arroyo 11 PPG, Jaydon Blue 10 PPG, Isaac Guerendo 10 PPG, Dontayvion Wicks 7 PPG
We had many a breakout in 2024, but perhaps the one that throttled my cockles more than anyone else was Chase Brown. Dude displayed workhorse traits during his time with the Fighting Illini and found opportunity the moment Joe Mixon was shipped off to the oil and gas capital of the world. It took two weeks to be given the reins, but after week 3 on, he didn’t score under 13 points, including a staggering 11 games over 20 points. (only 3 games under 20 points too) That’s the definition of a franchise cornerstone, people. On a 2-year rookie contract to boot, Brown is arguably one of, if not the most valuable dynasty assets in the IFL. Statistically, he was an all-purpose back, with 229 carries (16th in the NFL), 990 rushing yards (17th), and 7 rushing TDs (17th). He’s also one of the best receiving backs in the league, with 54 receptions (5th), 360 yards (13th), and another 4 TDs (3rd). One thing to keep an eye on is his YPC, which sat at a below-average 4.32. He has limited competition behind him, but they may want to keep his legs fresh for a potential postseason run. He’s a top 10 RB/WR/TE and dark horse to finish as the #1 overall scorer.
While there were doubters at certain points during the 2024 offseason, Brock Bowers left no crumbs after he posted a 377-point effort. The #8 overall RB/WR/TE, he was demolishing defenses with the husks of Gardner Minshew, Aidan O’Connell, and Desmond Ridder. It’s worth noting he played in three more games, but he shattered Mike Ditka’s rookie TE receiving record by 118 yards. (1,194 versus 1,076 in 1961) Ditka, btw Mike did that on 56 receptions(!) with a 19.2 yards per reception. Bowers now has a slight upgrade at QB with Geno Smith manning the ship in LV. With little additional target competition to speak of, Bowers can replicate his numbers from 2024. Among all receivers, he finished with 112 receptions (3rd in the NFL), 1194 receiving yards (9th), and 5 TDs (tied for 48th). It’s worth noting he was not a frequent target within the redzone, tallying only 13 targets within the 20. There is a new coaching staff in town, so there’s a bit of variance with this projection, but color me optimistic that he can match his 23 PPG output as a sophomore.
James Cook was a questionable prospect a couple of years ago. He’s been a part of this wave of sub-200 lb running backs providing fantasy value. (Gibbs, Kyren, etc.) For the 2nd straight year, Cook received over 200 carries, 1000 rushing yards and 30+ receptions. 2024 saw a MASSIVE progression in the rushing TD category, tying for 1st in the NFL with 16 rushing tuddies. His 29 attempts inside the 10 ranked 9th pointing that this will not be something that will all of a sudden vanish either. Cook is locked in as an elite fantasy asset moving forward, but there likely will be a bit of a regression in the TD category. He’s a top 32 RB/WR/TE for a Bills team that’ll finish as a top 5 offense.
If you cover your left eye, squint, and turn your head 20 degrees to the left, you can see Brock Bowers when looking at David Njoku. Yes, there’s hair on Njoku’s head and more melanin, but the receiving profile and situations are pretty similar! Even through an injury-marred campaign and playing with the league’s worst QB situation, the former 1st round pick out of Miami posted a compelling 20 PPG season. He wrapped up with 64 receptions on 97 targets, 505 receiving yards, and 5 TDs, all while missing 6 games. Now 29, Njoku is looking for a new contract and as of this writing hasn’t received it yet, but he has every incentive to post another stellar season along the Erie. With limited target competition to speak up, this man is a stellar option for our league. He costs less than $9 million in both conferences too!
If you had to guess where Ladd McConkey was from and didn’t guess Georgia, Alabama, or South Carolina, you should return to 4th-grade geography. I mean, the name McConkey is the most southern thing I’ve ever heard since watching Steel Magnolias hearing Dolly Parton say “The higher the hair, the closer to God!” Unfortunately, his professional fate found him in Los Angeles, but at least he did make the most of it, becoming an instant fantasy starter. While there were some hickups along the way, it was a quality introduction to the league, compiling 82 receptions (19th in the NFL) on 110 targets (25th), 1155 yards (10th) and 7 TDs ( 21st). The man profiles as the perfect #4 RB/WR/TE, who can be a PPR cheat code on any given week. His upside will always be tapped due to the run heavy scheme and his lack of redzone usage (8 targets within the 20), but he’s this era’s Jarvis Landry/Adam Thielen.
PK: Brandon Aubrey 11 PPG
PN: AJ Cole 10 PPG
DT: Zach Allen 18 PPG, Leonard Williams 16 PPG
I bet without looking, you wouldn’t have guessed that Zach Allen finished 2nd in pressures in 2024. Even with missing one game, he finished ahead of many of the game’s elite pass rushers. Granted, some of the best names, Parsons, Bosa, and Crosby missed time, but this is notable nonetheless. Allen only notched 8.5 sacks on his 47 pressures, which is a fantastic sign that there is still plenty of meat on the bone here. Allen is a dark horse to finish as the overall DT1, especially if he gets off to a strong start again, as he did in 2024. The Broncos seem to think he’s elite as well, recently signing him to the third-highest interior defender contract in the NFL.
It was a career year for Leonard Williams, who put it all together for the Seahawks. They desperately needed his presence, too, as the defensive line went through their annual injury soap opera. Not big Leo tho, who only missed one game, while tallying 64 tackles, 11 sacks, 1 INT, and a TD. That was good for DT1 numbers, which were surprising given his career numbers. Williams has done this before, notably in 2020 with New York, but he has primarily been a low-end DT1. In 2023, he finished with similar tackle numbers, with only 5 sacks. This projection has him finishing with between 11 and 5 sacks, ranking him as a top 10 option.
DE: Jonathan Greenard 18 PPG, Carl Granderson 14 PPG (Jaelan Phillips 13 PPG)
Jonathan Greenard did the ol’ switcharoo with Danielle Hunter, and he didn’t miss a beat. In fact, it resulted in a career year, with the Vikings masterfully moving on from Hunter, who cost much more for less production. Greenard finished 5th in pressures (42), tallying 12 sacks, 4 forced fumbles, and 59 tackles. In a hyper-aggressive Brian Flores scheme and partnered with elite pass rush partners, he’s tapped in as a top 10 EDGE option again in 2025.
It was a bit of a regression for Carl Granderson, who saw his sack totals scale back from 8 to 5.5. That came with a quality 32 pressures, which was good for 18th in the NFL. The 28-year-old UDFA out of Wyoming has been a full-time starter for the Saints over the past couple of seasons, becoming very IDP-relevant in the process. Now in a new scheme, Granderson will need to figure out what his role is in a 3-4 defense. He’s a bit miscast and may be tasked with doing more interior work as a 260lb player. For now, he’s slotted in as a low-end EDGE2, and probably best served as a bye-week filler on a team that will find themselves in game scripts that won’t ask him to rush the passer late in games.
I want to note I’d love to rank Jaelan higher, but we didn’t see it come together during his brief healthy period in 2024. Let’s see him do it before ranking him back into the top 16. (Even 13 PPG feels a bit aggressive)
LB: Kaden Elliss 20 PPG, Patrick Queen 16 PPG (Kenneth Murray 16 PPG, Denzel Perryman 13 PPG, Devin Bush 12 PPG)
For the second straight year, it was the Kaden Elliss show in Atlanta. The 30-year-old 7th-round pick out of Idaho has turned into one of the most consistent IDP options across our game. The last two years have seen him post over 122 tackles and 4 big plays or more. One thing that sticks out in his profile is his ability to get after the QB, with 16 sacks over the last three seasons. That will likely always be a part of his game, giving him an elite ceiling when the sacks and tackle numbers come together. If you rostered him during the fantasy playoffs, you came away impressed as he didn’t score under 27 points. He’s a foundational piece for any defense.
Patrick Queen keeps chugging along as ol’ reliable. Yes, he’s not the flashiest player, and some IDP analysts are calling for his head with the shiny new toy Payton Wilson waiting in the wings, but that’s not going to happen with him being paid $17 million this season. The 26-year-old (still young!) posted his 5th straight season over 100 tackles and tallied 2 forced fumbles and a sack, good for the LB26 finish. That’ll get it done for our game, and he’s slotted into another full-time workload. Hopefully, he can bump the big plays back up, as he’s tallied anywhere from 3-8 in any given season.
CB: Keisean Nixon 13 PPG, Paulson Adebo 12 PPG (Jaylon Jones 11 PPG, Christian Gonzalez 11 PPG, Storm Duck 11 PPG, Tarheeb Still 11 PPG)
It was a questionable choice for Keisean Nixon to mention he won’t be returning kicks anymore, as that’s not what CB1s do.’ Granted, he’s walked back that statement during training camp and is routinely being cited as their primary kick returner on the depth charts coming out of Green Bay. With added incentive for additional kick returns this year, that bodes well for Nixon’s chances to continue to be an elite corner for our game. Combined with his high tackle volume, which sat at 88 despite playing wide corner, makes him one of the favorites to be this year’s CB1. Fire him up with confidence.
Paulson Adebo was having a stellar season before he broke his femur in week 7 against the Broncos. He was far and away the CB1 up to that point, with an incredible 21.4 PPG. That largely came from high tackle numbers, which may be difficult to replicate in the Giants’ scheme. Still, he loves to muck it up in the run game, so I’m not regressing him back into the duldrums of opportunity options. Adebo slots in as a top 16 option, but it’d be best to have a backup play in case the scheme deters him from quality numbers.
S: Antoine Winfield 17 PPG, Budda Baker 16 PPG, Jessie Bates 16 PPG (Amani Hooker 14 PPG)
Antoine Winfield’s physical nature was bound to get him into injury trouble, and that’s exactly what happened in 2024. He missed 9 regular season games due to ankle and knee injuries, but still was a stud muffin delux while playing. He’s been an elite option pretty much from day 1 as a starter for the Buccaneers, and they seem to think so after inking him to a large contract after the 2023 season. Winfield is a big play machine as well and is one of the few safeties that can win weeks. He’s a must-start when he’s active.
A masterclass in soaking up tackles on a below-average defense, Budda Baker was the man! Even though he also had a league-high broken tackle rate, that didn’t deter him from stellar IDP numbers. He posted 155 total stops, with only 2 big plays to speak of. A bit concerning, especially given that he hasn’t been posting more than 3 big plays since 2021. Baker is primed for regression, but not much has changed for him to drop below elite S1 status. It’ll be tough to replicate the S1 score, but he’s likely a top 5-10 option for 2025.
There’s been some ups and downs to Jessie Bates’ IDP game, especially during his time with the Bengals. Since he’s joined the Falcons, however, he’s been nothing short of stellar. Last year was no exception, putting together the perfect blend of tackle upside and big play ability. Bates rallied for 102 tackles, 4 forced fumbles, 4 INTs, 1 sack, and 1 TD, finishing as the S5. The year prior, he did more of the same, with a 20 PPG finish as the S2. The Falcons continue to overhaul various positions on their defense, but they have a piece they can certainly rely on in Bates. His IDP owners should feel the same.
Off: Buffalo Bills 15 PPG
X-Factor: Fill dem holes when they appear.
PPG: 355
W-L: 14-3
It took almost til the end of the AFC projection series, but we finally found our first dominant team. Find someone more dialed in than Jason. I came away incredibly impressed with this roster build, having quality depth on both sides of the ball. In a very balanced AFC, there is one team that stands out as a tier above, and that is the four-time AFC pennant winner. There is room for growth here, too, especially offensively if TreyVeon Henderson can get out of the 3rd down back role he’s currently slotted for. Overall, there aren’t many holes to speak of here, and when one pops up, Jason will be sure to fill it for Winning Time.
