Coach: Dave Canales 4 PPG
QB: Sam Darnold 27 PPG
One of the startling storylines of 2024 was Sam Darnold ending up as the QB7. Yes, ahead of guys like Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts. Kevin O’Connell brought the best out of him, spurring him into signing a 3-year $100 million contract, likely locking him into Seattle through 2027. Last season, Darnold finished 5th in passing yards (4319), 9th in completions (361), 5th in TDs (35), and 6th in INTs (12). He provided a bit on the ground, with 212 rushing yards. Now it’s time to see him do it again, with a new offensive scheme with Klink Kubiak. I fully expect a regression, but he should hopefully stabilize as a top 16 option.
RB/WR/TE: James Conner 23 PPG, Deebo Samuel 15 PPG, Najee Harris 15 PPG, Zach Charbonnet 14 PPG, Tyler Warren 13 PPG 6th men: Isaiah Likely 13 PPG, Adam Thielen 13 PPG, Tank Bigsby 12 PPG, Kyle Pitts 12 PPG, Marquise Brown 11 PPG, Jaydon Blue 10 PPG, Demario Douglas 10 PPG, Cedric Tillman 10 PPG
There was a time when James Conner’s career was on the brink. While in college at Pittsburgh, he was diagnosed with Hodgkin’s lymphoma, and it was actually discovered when he was recovering from a torn ligament. He entered the pros as a third-round pick for Pittsburgh and was a serviceable fantasy option most years when healthy. It wasn’t until he went to Arizona that a new level was unlocked, now profiling as an all-purpose workhorse. 2024 was a career high in carries (236) and rushing yards (1094), and he played in all 17 games. He is a very capable receiver, too, with 47 receptions and 414 yards. Even at 30 on the last year of his latest contract, he is one of the most unheralded fantasy gems in our game and can carry an offense any given week.
What’s left in the tank for Deebo Samuel? Was he cast off at the right time by San Francisco before he falls off a cliff, or can he be a quality receiver for a team that has championship aspirations? He wasn’t startable for much 2024, with 7 games under 11.50 points. He only scored 4 TDs on the year, while tallying a depressing 51 receptions, 670 receiving yards, 42 carries, and 136 rushing yards. The 9ers elected not to run it back, shipping him off for a 5th-round pick to a needy receiver-needy Washington squad. It didn’t appear he had much left last year, so this projection is reliant on opportunity. Keep a close eye on his carry numbers, as the Commanders don’t have a prolific back who dominates touches. If he can earn 4-7 carries a game like he has in San Fran, he should be back-end startable. For Deebo to work, he must be featured on screens and carries. Hopefully, the designed targets come hot and heavy.
4 years of Najee Harris and 4 1,000-yard seasons. The NFL seemed to sour on him, however, as he only signed a 1-year $5 million deal, and the Chargers subsequently drafted over him with 1st round pick Omarion Hampton. Harris’ 2024 concluded with a pathetic 3.97 YPC, buttttt he has been reliable and available. Najee has the opportunity to still post back-end startable numbers in the super run-heavy Greg Roman offense. If he can finally return from his July 4th fireworks accident that fucked up his eye, this’ll likely be a timeshare in the JK Dobbins/Gus Edwards days. (Harris being the Gus the Bus)
Zach Charbonnet’s stock is rising after a sketchy offseason for Kenneth Walker, who has missed practice time with a foot/ankle soreness. Charbs has provided a reliable backup when K9 is down, much like the guy I just wrote about, Najee Harris. Similar to Najee, Charbs wasn’t efficient with his carries (4.27 YPC), but he provides competency. Oftentimes, that can be something a team can rely on. If Walker misses time, Charbs has league-winning upside, but will be on the bye-week/5th starter border until that day comes.
Tyler Warren looked like the real deal in the preseason, which should be very encouraging for Colts fans, as their season isn’t shaping up to be great. The rookie joins the club as the Power 5 record holder for the most receiving yards from a tight end in a single season. Daniel Jones is his year 1 QB, and hopefully, he can provide competent play. We’ve seen some special TE seasons from rookies in recent years, and there’s a possibility Warren could follow suit. He has a decent amount of target competition in Pittman, Pierce, and Downs, however. For now, he’s still at a rather aggressive 13 PPG from the gate.
PK: Cameron Dicker 10 PPG
PN: Logan Cooke 10 PPG
DT: Derrick Brown 18 PPG, Tershawn Wharton 11 PPG
Just a tragic season for Derrick Brown, who was lost from the jump in week 1. The loss of the Panthers’ best defender was a major precursor to one of the NFL’s worst-ever defenses. Brown was primed for another historically good season, setting the all-time tackle record for a DT in 2023. Brown’s high motor sets him up for a Cameron Heyward-type career moving forward. He needs to stay healthy, and he profiles as a top 5 DT for our league, which provides 3.5 points per solo tackle and 2.5 per assist for DTs. If Brown could ever take a step forward in the sacks department (his career high is 3), he could break our scoring.
Tershawn Wharton is slated to be a starter for the Carolina Panthers after signing a 3-year $45 million deal. That is certainly starter money, and he’ll be given 700(ish) snaps in the middle of Ejiro Evero’s defense. Wharton hasn’t been a fantasy factor during his 5 years in the IFL, but he did finish out the year as the DT31 after scoring over 19 points in three of the last four weeks. Now in Carolina, their interior rotation is a bit precarious, but Wharton has some upside in this new scheme. If he can bump his tackle numbers up into the 40s, the UDFA from Missouri S&T could be a fringe top 16 DT.
DE: Maxx Crosby 18 PPG, Josh Hines-Allen 15 PPG
It felt like only a matter of time for Maxx Crosby’s body to need a break after playing over 900 snaps in 4 straight years. A season-ending ankle injury in week 14 put an end to his worst year since 2020. Like some of the other worst teams in the NFL, the Raiders were plagued by horrible injury luck, including to their defensive linemen, Malcolm Koonce and Christian Wilkins. Crosby is known for his high tackle numbers to ballyhoo his reputation as a top option at EDGE. Fingers crossed he can return to the 80+ total tackles and double-digit sacks his fantasy owners are used to.
2024 was a very discouraging season for Josh Hines-Allen, whose tackles and pressures regressed. There is hope that this was a mirage due to a poor scheme under now-fired Ryan Nielsen. JHA finished 24th in pressures (29) and tallied 8 sacks, while delivering 45 total tackles in 17 games. These were career low numbers, resulting in an EDGE24 standing. This projection is slotting him back in the low-end EDGE1 conversation, but we shouldn’t forget he is one year removed from a 17-sack performance. I’d be shocked if that happened again, but he has top 10 ability.
LB: Jamien Sherwood 19 PPG, Trevin Wallace 14 PPG (Elandon Roberts 8 PPG)
Jamien Sherwood provided a level of consistency the Jets needed in last year’s shitshow. While the former leader of their defense, CJ Mosley, struggled with a back issue, leading to his retirement, Sherwood thrived in the vacating role, notching 158 total tackles, 2 sacks, and 3 PDs. The LB5 in total points, Jamien, appears to be a future mainstay in the IDP landscape. There is a scheme change, so there’s a bit of variance that could take place, but the former safety has the coverage skills to play all three downs. He’s slotted in as a top 16 option for 2025.
Trevin Wallace enters training camp in a battle for snaps against incoming signing Christian Rozeboom. Wallace, who saw starting snaps after Shaq Thompson went down, was unsurprisingly inconsistent through his first taste of action. He was immediately thrown into full-time snaps, which were scaled back as the season wore on. His season ended in week 14 after a shoulder injury. Wallace is still only 22 and has plenty of time to acclimate to the pro game. He’s a tough projection as there were flashes of good and bad in 2024. I wouldn’t want to have him as a trusted starter, but he could end up as a top 40 option if they trust him to play full-time snaps again.
CB: DaRon Bland 12 PPG, Dax Hill 12 PPG (Ja’Quan McMillan 11 PPG, Charvarius Ward 11 PPG)
After DaRon Bland broke the pick-6 record with five in 2023, it was downright tragic that we didn’t get an encore performance, as Bland missed most of the season due to injury. He returned in week 12 in time for the fantasy playoffs, averaging a robust 14 PPG despite not catching an INT. His tackle numbers were quite encouraging, as he spotted 41 in just 7 games. He was one of those rare wide boundary corner guys who loves to tackle, but the IDP landscape could shift a bit with new DC Matt Eberflus. Bland is penciled in as the starting nickel for the new scheme, but that isn’t set in stone. For now, I’m betting on Bland continuing his relevancy for our game, but the variance is a bit higher than I’d like.
Daxton Hill has endured a fascinating IDP journey. He started as a safety for the Bengals, and later transitioned to an outside corner role for the team. Last year’s start was exceptional, posting 59 points through 4 games. Unfortunately, an ACL tear ended his season, resulting in a lengthy rehab process he’s still going through. He’s on track for the season opener and should face no restrictions. The Bengals are certainly a team to target corners for IDP, and Dax has a solid opportunity to be a top 16 player. He’s on the fringe of the CB1 ranks.
S: Jeremy Chinn 15 PPG, Kevin Byard 14 PPG, Nick Emmanwori 14 PPG
Man, Jeremy Chinn was on death’s door a couple of years ago in Carolina, but he pulled up his bootstraps and resurrected his career in Washington. He ballyhooed last season into a 2-year $16 million contract with the Raiders, locking him into a box safety role for the Raiders. Holy tits, does the linebacking corps stink in Vegas, too, so he’s gonna be locked and loaded for another 100+ tackle season. Chinn has a penchant for tackles and burst onto the scene after his 116-tackle rookie season in 2020. He returned to those numbers last year and is firmly back in the good graces of IDP managers. Fire him up in your starting lineups for the next two years and be proud if you believed. (Will)
Kevin Byard feels like he’s been a part of our game forever, and well, he has. He started with us in 2016 and has posted many, many quality IDP seasons. Last year was arguably his best, with a career high 130 total tackles, 2 sacks, 1 forced fumble, an INT, and 7 PDs. A bit different than his 80 tackle, 8 INT days early in his career, but when inefficient linebackers like Tremaine Edmunds play in front of you, you have the ability to soak up the stats. I don’t expect Byard to land those lofty tackle stats again, but he still makes for a mighty fine top 20 option at 32 years old.
The best safety prospect for fantasy football since Kyle Hamilton, Nick Emmanwori is in line to be another super stud. I was a bit skeptical his opportunity would be enough for startability out of the gate, but he’s been insane during training camp, and it feels like he’ll be a near-full-time player from the jump. That’ll come with plenty of box safety and outside linebacker features, inducing a high-tackle floor. I’m not ready to project him as anything more than a top 20 safety, but that is a very aggressive PPG from the jump.
Off: Baltimore Ravens 15 PPG
PPG: 308
W-L: 6-11
X-Factor: The PPGs on offensive pieces increase.
Led by stud muffins James Conner, Derrick Brown, and Maxx Crosby, Will’s team has some quality pieces to build a squad around. It just doesn’t have the oomph with the youngsters needed this season to compete seriously. There are guys like Trevin Wallace, Jaydon Blue, and even Kyle Pitts who have a reasonable chance to outperform their PPG. For now, Will is on the outside looking in for the playoff picture, but he could certainly be a dark horse team to be playing in December if a piece or three surprised.
