Coach: Sean McVay 7 PPG
QB: Jayden Daniels 29 PPG
It was a season of horrors for sophomore QB Jayden Daniels, who just couldn’t stay healthy. He suffered a left knee sprain, right hamstring strain, and dislocated elbow. His loss ruined the chances of the Commanders fielding a competitive team, and the squad regressed back into irrelevancy after a shocking NFC Championship appearance. Daniels was an incredible dual-threat weapon, but I’m a bit hesitant to just copy/paste his 2024 stats, as what got him in trouble early last year was issues with his legs. Will he regress a bit as a runner? I think it’s probable to stay healthy. He’s so slight and injury concerns will likely be an issue through his career. For now, he’s a top 10 projection, but the ceiling here is a 33-35 PPG outcome.
RB/WR/TE: Derrick Henry 24 PPG, D’Andre Swift 21 PPG, Bhayshul Tuten 18 PPG, Carnell Tate 15 PPG, Jayden Reed 13 PPG 6th men: TreVeyon Henderson 16 PPG, Jordan Mason 13 PPG, Mark Andrews 13 PPG, Jaylin Noel 11 PPG, David Njoku 8 PPG, Braelon Allen 8 PPG
Death, taxes, and Derrick Henry rushing for over 1,000 yards and double-digit TDs. It’s what he’s done in 7 of the past 8 years since overcoming the overwhelming shadow of DeMarco Murray. Henry has found a home in the run-friendly confides of Baltimore for the back half of his carrer, and he’s kept on trucking, finishing 6th in the NFL in carries (18 per game), 3rd in rushing yards per game (94), and 4th in TDs per game (.94). One thing that did stick out, however was his evaded tackle numbers, which sat 24th in the NFL on a per game basis. (3.41) On his large workload, that sticks out as well below average and something to keep an eye on as he’ll be 33 in January. Perhaps peak Henry is gone, but I’d trust him to still hold the line as a #1 RB/WR/TE for my fantasy team.
Many of us had questions on what Swift’s opportunity would be given that Ben Johnson saw him traded away back in Detroit. He performed admirably in his first year, providing starter-worthy numbers across the board. Swift was the 1a in the Chicago backfield, posting 58% snap share (19th in the NFL), 14 carries per game (21st in the NFL), 68 rushing yards per game (14th), while sprinkling in some passing game work with 19 receiving yards per game (19th in the NFL among RBs). Swift is still king in the Windy City until proven otherwise and should keep a steady flow of carries and receptions coming the way of his fantasy owners. He’s a quality dual-threat RB.
Bhayshul Tuten had some moments in 2025, but he quietly bided his time behind Travis Etienne as a rookie. Tuten is currently projected to lead a committee in Jacksonville as the explosive option in the rushing game. Athletically, we’re looking at one of the most explosive backs in the league (9.56 RAS), but there are questions about his opportunity heading into training camp. It will be a battle for carries with Rodriguez, who has worked with HC Liam Coen during their time at Kentucky. Rodriguez has always been one of the most efficient runners, but he lacks the big-play ability Tuten has. I think this’ll end up being a 1a/1b split with Tuten possessing 55% or so of the carries, a tick below what we saw from Etienne last year. Tuten will be utilized in the passing game, but the projectable opportunity is TBD, with LeQuint Allen in the mix as well. (Tuten has legit questions as a pass blocker) For now, Tuten is a top-25 RB with a wide range of outcomes.
Cam Ward needed help. The Titans have given him a new OC with a track record of developing young QBs in Brian Daboll and selected Carnell Tate with the 4th overall pick. We’re in complete mystery box territory on how Tate and the Titans will perform, but their offense was pathetic in limited time during the preseason. This projection is based on opportunity alone, and Tate is likely to be very volatile week to week. We’ll see how the target distribution shakes out, but Tate’s ceiling will likely increase as the season wears on and development becomes a higher priority. Tate’s value is co-dependent on this offense being functional, which we won’t know until the games start counting. For now, he’s best served as a high-end bye-week filler.
We’ve seen flashes from 4th-year Pro Jayden Reed, but there’s hope he can take a step forward with less target competition. I’m not sure we’re there, as Reed may be a slot-only player and 3rd or 4th on the target order. Reed started his career off well with a 793-yard, 8-TD season, but has trickled down in each season since. Last year, he missed most of the season due to a broken collarbone and played through a Jones fracture he suffered in training camp. For now, we’re kind of in wait-and-see mode with the Packers’ offensive personnel until we see how the target distribution plays out. Until we get new info, he’s best suited to be on the bench.
PK: Harrison Butker 8 PPG
PN: JK Scott 9 PPG
DT: Jeffery Simmons 21 PPG, Jalen Carter 16 PPG (Dexter Lawrence 13 PPG, Aaron Donald 13 PPG)
Despite missing 2 ½ games, Jeffery Simmons slayed the DT rankings, finishing as the DT1 by almost 60 points (347 to 288). He did so with an astounding 24.8, putting a career year on tape in his age-28 season. It was the first time he hit double-digit sacks, 3 forced fumbles, and tallied a quality 67 total stops. Simmons, like most interior DTs, has a high variance when it comes to actualizing sacks, and we’ve often seen talented DTs have high pressure ratios, only for it not to translate to IDP production. (Owners of Big Q and Jalen Carter can attest) While Simmons isn’t going to be anything but my DT1 heading into 2025, it should be noted that it may be difficult for him to hit 11 sacks again, if the other 6 seasons of his career are any indication. There has been talk of scaling back his snap count a bit in new HC Robert Salah’s scheme, keeping him fresh for critical pass rush downs.
I’ve had my doubts about Jalen Carter as a fantasy asset, but I think we’re gonna see him fully put together to be a consistent fantasy starter. After an insane spitting incident that led off the 2025 season, Carter posted decent numbers through week 13. He missed 4 more games and had shoulder issues, which reportedly restricted him to being 100% as a run defender. Still, even in 11 games, he was a serviceable pass rusher. I think we’re possibly in the territory of a player like Quinnen Williams, who will have 1-2 career years where it all goes right and he’s a fantasy force. I worry we won’t get the tackle-heavy numbers to warrant a top-5 option. (especially in the current scheme) In year 4, we could finally see a breakout, and the hope is to get him over 6 sacks for the first time in his career.
DE: Byron Young 18 PPG, Montez Sweat 16 PPG (Khalil Mack 13 PPG)
Byron Young has floated on the outskirts of EDGE1s since he was selected in the 3rd round in 2023, but he took his game to another level last year. The 28-year-old posted stellar stats, finishing as the EDGE4 with 82 tackles, 12 sacks, and 1 FF on 40 pressures (7th among defenders). There is no reason to think he can’t be a force again, especially with an upgrade playing opposite him in Myles Garrett, who is taking even more attention away. Look for Young to absolutely feast in this rich IDP environment.
We got some delicious production from Montez Sweat, who has proven to be a top 20 EDGE across the NFL. He posted top 10 IDP production too, with a 53-tackle, 10-sack, and 3 FF campaign. He’s about to be 30, so this is about his ceiling, and that is perfectly fine for a mid-to-low-end EDGE1. If he says around 27 pressures again, it may point to a small regression, but 10 sacks are in the range of outcomes, as are 6-7.
LB: Blake Cashman 20 PPG, Payton Wilson 16 PPG, Drake Thomas 15 PPG (Dre Greenlaw 14 PPG)
Blake Cashman (iconic name), has been an elite IDP producer for us when he’s healthy. That’s often the rub with Cash$$$, but he loves to soak up tackles when he’s on the field. Despite missing 4+ games, he still finished 9th in total tackles. He added 2 sacks and 1 FF on top, producing at a top-5 PPG clip. He’s slated to be the man in the middle in Minny for one more year and then will take his talent to free agency for his age 31 season.
Payton Wilson was an incredibly frustrating linebacker to rely on in 2025. His snap counts were all over the place, ranging from 88% all the way down to 40%. It was a weird season, but he has shown quality tackle efficiency when he has the opportunity. There is certainly hope that Wilson will be a full-time backer next to Patrick Queen, as there is a DC in Patrick Graham coming over from Vegas. He was not known for using two full-time backers, however, so we’ll need to see it before we believe it. At the very least, Wilson has stayed relatively healthy through two NFL seasons, an issue that plagued him in college. The range of outcomes is high for Wilson, but I believe he’ll be startable as a near full-time player.
Every year, we get some fun surprises, one of which was Drake Thomas’s emergence. The 3rd year UDFA out of NC State overtook Tyrice Knight for the 2nd LBer spot for the Seahawks, eventually becoming a mostly part-time player starting in week 6. From there, it was a high-variance journey: 4 weeks over 20 points and 4 under 10. The Seahawks committed to him this offseason as well, as he inked a 2-year $8 million deal. (hardly guaranteed start money, tho) My money is on Thomas being a part-time player again, seeing around 80% of the snaps. He’ll have some boom weeks and should be trusted in tackle-heavy matchups.
CB: Quincy Riley 10 PPG, Denzel Burke 10 PPG
The history of the Saints and IDP cornerback production is littered with studs, and Quincy Riley has the potential to be in the next line of them. He’s projected to play as a boundary option in a full-time role. Riley played limited snaps during his rookie season and didn’t show much, but did come away with a forced fumble and an INT. He’s probably best served as a starter in good game scripts, but makes for an excellent flyer or taxi stash.
It was a roller coaster of opportunity during Denzel Burke’s rookie season, but he provided some excellent production at various times. Burke was a 5th-round pick out of Ohio State and is slated to be a full-time boundary corner for the Cardinals. On limited snaps, he finished with 49 tackles, 3 INTs, and 11 PDs. With an uptick in opportunity, he could end up being a top 20 corner for fantasy purposes. He’s a priority flyer for our builds, but let’s see if he can consistently produce before anointing him to CB1 territory.
S: Quentin Lake 15 PPG, Josh Metellus 13 PPG
Quentin Lake was balling out before the elbow injury knocked him out for weeks 11-18. For a second straight year, he was on track for a 100+ tackle season on a squad that doesn’t have many tackle eaters. Lake employs a full-time, box-heavy role, and the vast majority of his snaps occur in the slot/box. He’ll be back to his stud muffin delux ways and should be in line for another top 10 finish.
Someone has to play safety for the Vikings, and Josh Metellus will continue to provide competent play. After a 2023 season, which saw him break out with 116 tackles and 7 big plays, he’s regressed every year since, and I have my worries he’ll be playing further away from the line of scrimmage without Harrison Smith/Cam Bynum-like talents backing him up. He often played linebacker in Flores’ hybrid scheme, which has greatly helped his tackle numbers. I’d love to see Metellus wrack up the big plays again, but 2023 may have been a mirage. I’m hopeful he’ll stick in the top 32, with upside for a top 16 season.
Off: Minnesota Vikings 11 PPG
PPG: 325
W-L: 9-8
X-Factor: Backend starters.
Titus has 70,000 depth pieces, and it’s hard to know who will be startable at the start of the season. Offensively, it’s very likely that 1-2 will break out to join his regular starters in Swift, Henry, and Tuten. Defensively, the team has quality front-end starters, led by the superstar DT Jeffery Simmons and tackle aficionado Blake Cashman. The same depth blurb applies defensively. It’s gonna take some time to figure out who’ll be consistent starters in the second half of the lineup.
