Coach: Jack Del Rio 6 PPG
QB: Matt Ryan 33 PPG
Matty MVP Ice! And to think I thought Jay Cutler was a better fantasy option than Ryan before the season started. Anywho, let’s talk about this poor guy for a second. Just a sack away from putting a golden bow on top the best season any player had last year, is 2017 a regression back his normal fringe top ten finish? Nope. That dude figured it out last year, and behind an above average line, the elite offense in Atlanta is going to keep chugging along. I believe following good coaching is a novel idea, but talent transcends. Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and Devonta Freeman will still be great without Shanahan. It may be preemptive and my track record doesn’t give me credibility, but it’s time to welcome Matt Ryan to the elite QBs in the NFL.
RB/WR/TE: Jordy Nelson 20 PPG, Ty Montgomery 17 PPG, Keenan Allen 17 PPG, Doug Baldwin 17 PPG, Michael Crabtree 17 PPG (6th Man: Kyle Rudolph 16 PPG)
One of the most fascinating offenses belongs to Aaron. The combination of six players strikes a weird chord. Nelson is the headliner, at least for another season. I don’t know if you’ve heard, but Jordy is the #1 option for the NFL’s best quarterback. Talk about opportunity, Nelson didn’t lose a step coming off a torn ACL. As we enter 2017, Nelson is a top 5 weapon at receiver. He’s dealt with some injuries, but he’s undervalued. If Aaron falls out of it, Nelson should yield a pretty return to a buyer.
I’ve got a lot to say about Ty. Firstly, the opportunity is fanfuckingtastic as Rodgers’ running back facing limited heavy-box situations. Montgomery also runs behind a quality offensive line that features three pro bowlers. He enters the season as the clear favorite and if he controls this backfield, he holds crazy upside…. Now here’s my problem… IF Montgomery was so good, like all these efficiency stats suggest, why the fuck was he not made a running back until last season when Green Bay lost their starter and backup? Stanford, his college of choice, used him as a hybrid weapon, but he profiled mostly as a receiver. Then obviously Green Bay didn’t make a switch until a year and a half into his career. Some of the brightest football minds didn’t think it was a good idea, why should I think he’s going to beat out a couple rookies who were uber productive and received some of the best reviews during the draft process? The red flags are everywhere with Montgomery, but he’s the incumbent. At the end of the day, I think Montgomery ends in a timeshare with Jamaal Williams, and eventually, it will be Williams who takes over. He is a physical back, although Montgomery weighs more, he tends to avoid contact more than Williams.
Aaron, you must remember the godly 1st half Keenan Allen displayed before he went down with his ACL. This dude was beasting out against the Chiefs and could have ended up as your #2 weapon behind Nelson. With a least a couple non-deserving teams making the AFC playoffs, maybe you could have joined the party with better injury luck. This year, Allen should be the clear #1, although top ten pick Mike Williams is expected to be the preferred red zone option. Allen is right there with Amari Cooper with me, but maybe a little more reception upside. If Allen goes down for the 3rd year in a row, I don’t know what will happen, but it will be hard to ever rely on Allen ever again. His injury history is long and dates back to early in college.
After two very volatile weapons, it’s nice to discuss Doug Baldwin, who’s been steady since becoming Seattle’s #1 receiver in 2015. Baldwin isn’t the biggest, most polished or fastest guy, but he does everything extremely well. Baldwin is an easy projection, as not much has changed opportunity wise. This season, it’s a matter of how much he will find the endzone, the yards and receptions will be there.
I love the Michael Crabtree redemption we’ve seen with his time in Oakland. One of the best #2’s in football, he’s the high(ish) floor you look for with a couple of your starters. Like Baldwin, I see little reason to change his stats from last year.
PK: Dan Bailey 9 PPG
PN: Matt Darr 10 PPG
DT: Malik Jackson 9 PPG
Jackson kind of died in Jacksonville. He was supposed to be this great defensive tackle. We never saw him return to dominance that earned him a huge contract with Jacksonville, but there’s some that think he’s going to come alive next to Campbell. Maybe Jacksonville is where players go to get their big money and die. Is Calais Campbell and Barry Church next? Will AJ Bouye be the corner to exploit this year? It’s not like Tashaun Gipson was very good last year either. Jackson isn’t going to be anything more than a borderline starter. Aaron can do better.
DE: Ezekiel Ansah 14 PPG, Frank Clark 13 PPG
Both Zeke’s are ballers. If Ansah didn’t fuck with a high ankle sprain that hampered him all season, he probably would have remained in the top 10. A year removed from his dominant campaign, there’s talk that Ansah needs help and he can’t produce on his own. We’ll find out this year, but he’s gonna return to his mid-range top 10 self if he’s healthy.
Frank Clark may be the scum of the Earth, but he’s still a talented player ready to take a 3rd year leap for the league’s premier defense. Clark’s floor is low, as he’s not much of a tackler, but his double digit sack upside is a perfect recipe for a low-end DE1. If he can ramp up the tackles and avoid the bust games, Clark could ascend.
LB: Kwon Alexander 21 PPG, Mark Barron 15 PPG, Deone Bucannon 14 PPG, Craig Robertson 11 PPG
If Kwon was a better NFL player, he would slot right in where Lavonte was right behind Kuechly in the LBer rankings. He’s just as productive of a player as David was, super young and there is no end in sight for his role. Kwon isn’t injury prone either, however, he was suspended for the last four games of 2015 because he drank an excessive amount of an energy drink that had a banned substance. While Kwon is not an elite NFL player, he’s perfect for fantasy. Kwon is the perfect example of it’s not always about talent, but opportunity.
Mark Barron is moving into the 2nd inside linebacker spot in Wade Phillips’ 3-4 scheme. The history of this position is a mixed bag, as Danny Trevathan and Brandon Marshall were very useful for fantasy purposes, but last season Brandon Marshall and Todd Davis were not. 2017 is a season of transition for this defense, so there is some volatility, however, Barron is a safe bet as a 3rd or 4th linebacker on a defense that will be on the field more than they would like.
Deone Bucannon is expected to start the season on the PUP and there’s some questions on where he will be used when he returns. Reddick is expected to fill his role while he’s out, as evidenced by practices in OTAs. Bucannon was not very good last year, regressing to an unappealing asset. 2017 could be a huge year for his future value. If he comes back midseason and returns to 2015 form, it would help justify his $14 million contract.
Writing about Craig Robertson bores me. He’s the epitome of a player who lacks talent but is projected for an opportunity. He’s in a battle for the middle linebacking role with AJ Klein, or potentially the WLB role against Danelle Ellerbe. He may end up as a SLB or even a backup, so it’s too early to tell what his usage will be. His value could fluctuate throughout the season and in training camp if he gets past by more talented players on the depth chart. Manti Te’o is in New Orleans after all.
CB: Ronald Darby 12 PPG, Brent Grimes 12 PPG
Darby was benched for part of last season. That’s going to benefit Darby this year for targets. Darby was teetering on elite status in 2015, but encountered a down year. The Bills like a slow paced game, however they own one of the best stat crews in the NFL. Darby should flirt with CB1 numbers.
Was Brent Grimes good last year? Sort of. Miko stayed out of our business, I never heard about her all year, so maybe his past drama was just Dolphin luck. Grimes is really getting old, and I have to think he’s going to lose a step soon. The opportunity isn’t going away, however, he’s starting next to Vernon Hargreaves and our sophomore should still be targeted more. Grimes is a safe corner to target, especially for juicy NFC South games.
S: Kurt Coleman 15 PPG, Karl Joseph 13 PPG
I didn’t like Kurt Coleman going into last season and boy was I wrong. He balled out again for the 2nd straight season, and turned his career around after a couple rough years. 2017 should be more of the same, as the strong safety on another stellar defense. Coleman isn’t great in coverage, but he’s asked to play in the box more than most safties which plays to a high floor. Hovering between 90-110 tackles should be within reach.
Is Karl Joseph overrated? The last two years have been terrible. An ACL tear in college comboed into a disappointing, injury-riddled rookie season. These guys from West Virginia… maybe they just grow them soft. His usage was promising when he was on the field and his opportunity behind a garbage linebacking corps is what you look for. However, I can’t shake the suspicion we are going to see more injuries from the WVU product.
Off: Houston Texans 9 PPG
Total PPG: 304
2016 Total PPG: 317
Prediction: 7-9
2016 Prediction: 8-8
Aaron owns the worst team in the AFC’s best division. It’s a tough spot, as Aaron probably doesn’t have much hope going into the season. He reminds me of the Atlanta Hawks, a team that always is competitive, but knows it won’t win a championship. What’s great about this league, is Aaron is doing the right thing to make his team better, by not blowing it up. Being one of the best non-playoffs teams reaps a big benefit If you keep your draft picks. Unfortunately, Aaron traded away his 1st round pick for Kwon Alexander, a selection that is a heavy favorite to be in the top five. To summarize Aaron’s team, it’s a wild card level offense, with a non-competitive defense. It’s possible he runs with only one startable linebacker. In a division full of killers, I’m not sure if the basement behemoth is going to get out of the… well basement.
