Coach: Dan Quinn 6 PPG
QB: Matthew Stafford 28 PPG
I saw a stat last night on Twitter that Stafford was 5-40 against teams above .500. That doesn’t have anything to do with his fantasy value, but it’s striking. Stafford is one of the most undervalued QBs in the game, a quarterback that carried a below average Lions team to the playoffs. It’s a shame the Lions can’t form a competent defense, because Stafford can win a Super Bowl with proper help. Stafford’s situation didn’t change much, with additions on the offensive line before his left tackle Taylor Decker going down in OTAs. Decker may be back in time for the regular season, or he may end up on the PUP. I ranked Stafford right around where he was last year, which is certainly serviceable, but a not on par with the elites.
RB/WR/TE: Frank Gore 18 PPG, Cameron Meredith 17 PPG, Emmanuel Sanders 16 PPG, Jordan Matthews 14 PPG, DeVante Parker 14 PPG (6th men: Coby Fleener 14 PPG, Marvin Jones 13 PPG, Dwayne Allen 12 PPG)
You know you have a problem when Frank Gore is projected as your best offensive player. The workload is expected to take another step back, with Turbin impressing in OTAs and Marlon Mack going to take on all he can early on. The offensive line isn’t great and the workload will be scaled back, but Gore is still the lead dog, at least pre-training camp. A truly special player due to his consistency, Father Time has to catch up to him eventually. It may be this year.
Cameron Meredith came out of nowhere last year, a staple of every football season. An undrafted free agent out of Illinois State with an elite athletic profile, Meredith ran with his opportunity when given halfway through the year. I don’t think it’s crazy to think Meredith is Jai’s most valuable weapon by season’s end. Kevin White’s closer to bust territory than many would like to believe and Meredith has shown he can be a starter in the NFL, a trait White has yet to show. Going into the season, Meredith has WR2 written all over him.
Sanders is the perfect 4/5 option for a fantasy offense. You can usually plan for him to hit the 10 point floor, rarely busting. This season nothing is new for Sanders and should flirt with 1,000 yards with a splash of touchdowns. Watch who wins the QB job in Denver. Siemian targeted Sanders more than Lynch did in 2016, so bump Sanders up if Siemian wins the job again.
Matthews seems to be left for dead in many fantasy circles, which is a big mistake. A staple of Jai’s limited starpower offense, Matthews offers an intriguing floor as the Eagles’ #2 weapon going into 2017. Jeffery could take pressure off of Matthews, allowing him to get open more often. The 6’3 slot receiver appears to be the type that can’t be a team’s #1, but with good quarterback play, will make for a decent starting option. Matthews will go as far as Wentz takes him. With the former #2 overall pick expected to take a step forward, it’s reasonable to expect Matthews to as well.
DeVante Parker is the hype train conductor for the 2017 offseason, but can he direct the train to make him a fantasy starter? Parker showed flashes of dominance over the course of 2017, and I believe he’s talented enough to be a quality starter in the NFL. However, his opportunity doesn’t appear to project him as a startable receiver. During Tannehill’s reign as Dolphins’ QB, there has never been two receivers that I would want to start for my fantasy team, only one. If Jarvis’ targets take a step back, I could see Parker becoming better than just a back-end starter, but a solid WR2. Landry is one of the best slot receivers in the NFL and has a rapport with Tanny. The Dolphins also plan on being a run-heavy team, but Parker, if he stays healthy, will more than likely take that expected next step.
PK: Brandon McManus 9 PPG
PN: Dustin Colquitt 11 PPG
DT: Fletcher Cox 12 PPG
Cox wasn’t the greatest DT last year, being hit with more double teams than ever before. He signed a mega contract last offseason and offenses paid more attention to him. With a bevy of talent being added to Philly’s defensive line, it’s expected that Cox will progress back to a top 5 weapon at DT.
DE: Derek Wolfe 13 PPG, Andre Branch 10 PPG
Wolfe is a steady contributor and makes for a fantastic #2 DE. He’s not going to be winning Jai many weeks, but he will be a top 25 option. While Jai could use an elite defensive lineman, having Wolfe as his #1 guy isn’t the end of the world. On a team still rebuilding, this should be a position Jai looks to improve.
Andre Branch is that little known #3 lineman on the Dolphins that makes for a perfect bye week fill in at DE. He’s not an elite player, however, he’s a decent bet for mediocre fantasy production. Branch was a top 25 fantasy option last season and he’s coming into 2017 with the same role. His snaps may be cut back a bit with Charles Harris expected to be heavily involved in pass rush situations, Branch’s role is one to watch in the preseason.
LB: Kamalei Correa 17 PPG, CJ Mosley 17 PPG, Brandon Marshall 13 PPG, Sean Spence 13 PPG
I don’t believe Correa and Mosley will both average 17 PPG. Whoever takes over Orr’s role will average around 18-19 PPG and if Mosley stays pat, he will be around 14-15 PPG. Mosley is an elite talent, but like Lavonte David, he’s not utilized in ways to produce elite production. If he is put into more situations to be the lead tackler instead of taking on blockers, his numbers are bound to go up. If Correa slides right into Orr’s role, Correa turns into a must start weekly.
Brandon Marshall was God awful for fantasy owners last year, busting big time after he was expected to take a step forward after Danny Trevathan’s departure to Chicago. Many are expecting a rebound for Marshall, but after averaging 9 PPG, it’s hard for me to project him to bounceback. Vance Joseph is expected to retain a similar 3-4 defense and his usage should remain the same.
Sean Spence is in the shitshow that is the Colts’ linebacking corps. It seems like there’s 7 options that are vying for the old D’Qwell Jackon role that propelled him to fantasy dominance. Spence could be that guy, and some exclaim him as the favorite pre-training camp. He could end up averaging 5 PPG and his ceiling is near 20. We just don’t know his role, so he’s extremely difficult to project.
CB: Casey Hayward 12 PPG, Logan Ryan 11 PPG
Hayward was a beast last season, leading the NFL in interceptions. Jason Verret has turned into an elite NFL corner, and Hayward can hold his own as well which leads to great fantasy production. His 2017 projection expects a regression of INTs and no pick sixes. He still has a good chance to take one back for a touchdown, and his upside calls for another top 3 campaign.
Logan Ryan was the #1 corner in our league last year. He was a Pats corner, which equates to great fantasy success. Ryan is now the #1 corner for a run heavy, clock killing team, so his upside is way lower. He still will be on the field every snap, but he is projected to start opposite a rookie corner. I don’t like his prospects and expect a heavy regression.
S: Jabrill Peppers 15 PPG, Su’a Cravens 13 PPG
One of my regrets of the rookie draft is not selecting Jabrill Peppers. He’s projected to be a strong safety in a scheme that gives him top five upside. Peppers is also expected to be heavily involved on special teams, a bonus that will lend him a couple PPG. I worry a bit about Calvin Pryor and how he impacts Peppers’ usage, but Peppers should be able to beat him out.
Su’a Cravens wasn’t useful last year, but he’s expected to take over the starting strong safety role in Washington. With a linebacking corps and defensive line that ranks in the bottom half of the league, Cravens should be startable this season. Washington’s starting strong safeties last year hovered around the S2 range, and I expect the same from Cravens. There’s upside for more.
Off: Washington Redskins 14 PPG
Total PPG: 293
2016 Total PPG: 291
Prediction: 3-13
2016 Prediction: 5-11
I’m disappointed I don’t have nicer things to say about Jai’s team. His team features next to no stars, and his draft for next season features just two picks in the 1st three rounds. Jai’s free agency and draft period filled some holes, but Jai hasn’t come close to leaving the rut he dug himself during the initial year. I fear Jai is rudderless. He doesn’t make a lot of trades and doesn’t work hard enough to drastically improve his team. He’s shy in making big moves, and while this can be a good thing, if you look at the best teams in IFL, they are also the most active on the market. If Jai wants to turn his team around, it will start on the trade front in 2017. If not, we could see a repeat SMOF performance.
