Coach: Dan Quinn 6 PPG
QB: Jameis Winston/Ryan Fitzpatrick 25 PPG
Famous Jameis is known for many things, most notably crab legs, shoplifting soda from a Burger King and his incriminating sexual assault allegations against a Florida State student. His immaturity has shown while in the pros as well, as he was recently suspended 3 games after it was proven he groped an Uber driver. Shitty aspects aside, his football mentality provides a boom/bust, Philip Rivers type quarterback that can provide some week winning or week losing performances. Winston needs to get himself together if he’s going to survive in the NFL. I think he will, but he’s one strike away from serious consequences.
RB/WR/TE: Todd Gurley 31 PPG, Leonard Fournette 27 PPG, Saquon Barkley 25 PPG, Michael Thomas 19 PPG, Devante Adams 18 PPG (6th men: Alvin Kamara 25 PPG, Vance McDonald 14 PPG)
This time last year, Todd Gurley was regarded by some as an overrated player. He was inefficient in Jeff Fisher’s scheme and was rarely utilized in the passing game. 2018 results changed everything. The All-Pro finished with an otherworldly 500 points which resulted in a cool $46 million contract in the NFC. McVay’s offense changed everything for him. The offensive line took a major step forward, led by left tackle veteran Andrew Whitworth. Gurley rarely left the field and even more importantly maintained his health. No running back has finished back to back seasons as the number one rusher, but Gurley is as good a bet as any to accomplish the feat. At only 24 when the season starts, he’s got a lot of points ahead of him.
Leonard Fournette came out of college one of the most unique prospects in a generation. The runs 4Net put on tape amazed the most seasoned scouts to the casual fan, and it was no surprise he went 4th overall to the Jags who wanted to emphasize the run game and hide their deficiency at quarterback. In 2017, he carried the rock 268 times in the regular season, despite missing 3 games. Heading into 2018, the key will be staying healthy and avoiding his reoccurring knee issues. He’s slimmed down to help his fitness and there is no sign that his workload will be dialed down. The ceiling here is massive if he’s utilized more in the passing game. The carries will always be there.
Somehow Mark’s third starter, Saquon Barkley entering the 2018 season with arguably the highest ceiling of any running back. A lock to never leave the field, impeccable injury history and supreme draft pedigree poise the #2 overall pick to rocket off into fantasy football orbit. Barkley is the epitome of the modern NFL running back, whose only weakness may be inside runs. Barkley possesses vice grip hands and can run routes like wide receivers. He’s extremely shifty and his highlights tapes are filled with making defenders looks silly with all kinds of jukes. (The hurdles are my favorite) The Giants will run their offense through him, giving them two of the most prolific weapons in the game. At 25 PPG, the only things holding him back will be the ineptitude of Eli Manning moving the football down the field and gamescript concerns. Hopefully he has some left in the tank.
Mark wisely traded away Derrius Guice for Michael Thomas a trade that helped both teams contrary to some people in the league. While Guice possesses a much higher ceiling than Thomas, Mark can’t start 5 running backs, so one had to go and he brought in a high floor option in Michael Thomas. Thomas is an annual lock for 100 receptions as the Saints #1 receiver, but will probably always be a touch below the elite level with the Saints penchant for spreading the ball around. The Saints have also moved into a run-heavy team, something that has affected the other Saint receivers’ production. Thomas’ touchdowns decreased from 9 to 5 in his sophomore year, so it’s possible we see Thomas take a step forward in that category. As one of the most physically imposing options at receiver in the NFL, we will be talking about Thomas for a long time. Even when Brees retires, Thomas’ high floor in PPR leagues will keep him relevant.
Devante Adams had some serious ups and downs in his career as it looked like he was heading for a benching in his second season. He turned his value around and showed off his physicality, particularly in the red zone the last couple of years. Adams is attached to the best quarterback in the NFL for the next half decade or so. While not a high reception player, Adams makes up for it by his annual double-digit touchdowns. While never exceeding 1000 yards, Adams moves into the #1 receiving option in Green Bay now that Jordy Nelson is in Oakland. Adams could absolutely erupt, but with consistency issues in his past, I would like to see him do it first before projecting a PPG increase.
The best 6th man in the IFL: While I was not a fan of Alvin Kamara coming out as a rookie, he found himself in the perfect situation in New Orleans with one of the best offensive minds in Sean Payton. Kamara entered a muddy situation behind Mark Ingram and Adrian Peterson. AP proved to be ineffective and was sent away, and Kamara took on more of a role as the season went on. He was unbelievable in every part of his game, resulting in a 2nd Team All-Pro selection his rookie year. Kamara will be a must-start weeks 1-4 while Ingram serves his suspension, but there will always be a worry splitting carries. What makes Kamara special in our league is his punt return and reception bonuses as one of the most prolific all-purpose players in our game.
PK: Graham Gano 8 PPG
PN: Brett Kern 10 PPG
DT: Jarran Reed 9 PPG
Jarran Reed’s potential resides in his opportunity to rack up a lot of tackles. Reed is slated to be the 3-tech for Seattle, but it’s not a position that proved to be particularly valuable for fantasy purposes. He’s not known for his pass rush ability, relying on solid run defense to make himself valuable. He’s a bye-week fill-in option.
DE: JJ Watt 19 PPG, Trey Flowers 17 PPG
It’s been a long two, lonely years for IDP players since JJ Watt has been an elite option. Watt was as valuable as almost any player in the league, somehow eclipsing 400 points in our format. Two devastating years and issues with Watt’s back and knees have many worried, including Watt himself that his best days are behind him. Unfortunately, I don’t think we will ever see 22.5 sack JJ Watt again, but it’s more than safe to assume Watt will be an annual double-digit sack threat until the wheels fall off. He is surrounded by two of the most talented pass rushers in the NFL in Clowney and Mercilus.
Trey Flowers was given a full-time role in New England last year and provided a stud muffin of a season. Despite missing two games, Flowers still amassed 6.5 sacks and over 60 tackles. Moving forward, Flowers is one of the highest floor ends in the game, similar to Olivier Vernon’s years at defensive end. He’s an annual top 10 end moving forward.
LB: Zach Brown 20 PPG, Alec Ogletree 17 PPG, Eric Kendricks 16 PPG, Leighton Vander Esch 15 PPG
Zach Brown was on track to finish as the #1 linebacker in our scoring before not playing the last two games of our season. Brown is an uber-athletic backer that mans the middle of a below average defense. The Redskins couldn’t stop the run last year, which resulted in Brown’s ample tackle opportunities as naturally, offenses would want to run against them. Brown has always been an intriguing talent and has put it together in Washington. Finally getting the extension he was hungry to receive in Buffalo, his value has solidified moving forward. He’s a top 5 option and a criminally underrated asset.
Alec Ogletree exited purgatory as an ILB in Wade Phillip’s defense. Now in New York, it’s assumed that his PPG will rocket up to pre-Wade Phillips days. What we will probably see is something in between, his top 5 backer days and LB2 2017 season. James Bettcher’s defense hasn’t provided stud muffin backers in the past, but Tree is probably the best option he’s ever had. A 17 PPG is a safe projection after his down year.
Eric Kendricks is your typical boring linebacker that just racks up tackles. He’s exactly what you look for in a linebacker in that he’s going to provide you a solid amount of points weekly. While he’s not the highest floor guy due to playing in a stacked defense, Kendricks is put in the best positions to make the tackles most run plays. He’s a solid LB2.
Leighton Vander Esch (LVE) was one of the most athletic prospects coming out of the draft and landed in a fantastic situation in Dallas. Slated to be the WLB in Dallas, LVE’s projection stems from the production Anthony Hitchens has provided the last couple of years. Once Sean Lee is out of the picture, which could happen as early as 2019, LVE’s stock is going to shoot up, but for 2018 he should be more than a viable option. There is a possibility of Lee, LVE and Jaylon Smith being used in an unorthodox way where all three players are used interchangeably.
CB: N/A 10 PPG, N/A 10 PPG
S: Reshad Jones 16 PPG, Barry Church 13 PPG
Reshad Jones has been the best safety for fantasy the last few years and that’s not going to change as long as Miami provides a weak linebacking corps and defensive line ahead of him. Jones is tasked with regularly cleaning up the ineptitude of the players in front of him and regularly plays in the box. A small concern was when TJ McDonald returned from injury, Jones moved to free safety. With Minkah Fitzpatrick and TJ McDonald in the fold now, it’s important to watch how Jones is used in the preseason. He could be in line for a regression, but we don’t know until his role is defined.
Barry Church has been a mainstay for the IDP community dating back to his days with Dallas. Now in a stacked Jacksonville defense, he’s not as prolific as he once was, but Church still gets the job done as a solid S2 with upside. Church will be pushed by Ronnie Harrison and could be out of the picture this time next year, but 2018 we get to see him take people to Church on Sundays.
Off: Washington Redskins 10 PPG
PPG: 341
Outlook: Mark hasn’t lived up to his high expectations that last couple of years after failing the initial veteran auction. Through savvy first year trades, he was able to overcome his tough start and set himself up for an annual championship run. Mark arguably amassed 6 top 32 assets in our league, an unprecedented feat never seen before in this format. He has the highest upside team in the IFL, and now with Mark getting his quarterback situation figured out, he’s a lock for the playoffs and potentially IFL’s favorite heading into the season.
W-L: 13-3
