Coach: Ron Rivera 5 PPG
QB: Matt Ryan 26 PPG
Two years ago, Matt Ryan took over the NFL world, hoisting the MVP trophy and almost winning the Super Bowl barring a historic collapse. While Ryan didn’t take home the Lombardi, he did endear himself to fantasy owners after years of mediocrity. 2017 came fast and so did Ryan’s regression as he went from 38 touchdowns to a doleful 20. Many blamed Steve Sarkisian, who was a huge downgrade from league-best offensive mind Kyle Shannahan, but Ryan clearly wasn’t the same QB that led Atlanta’s historical charge the year prior. Ryan’s weapons return healthy and upgraded, as Calvin Ridley will provide a huge upgrade from Taylor Gabriel in the slot. Ryan should return to 30 touchdowns, as the 20 from last year was the lowest since his rookie year.
RB/WR/TE: Royce Freeman 18 PPG, Doug Baldwin 17 PPG, Kenyan Drake 16 PPG, Pierre Garcon 16 PPG, Rex Burkhead 15 PPG (6th men: Buck Allen 15 PPG, Cameron Brate 12 PPG, Allen Hurns 12 PPG, Calvin Ridley 11 PPG, Hayden Hurst 11 PPG, Ty Montgomery 10 PPG)
All things considered, Royce Freeman enters a solid situation for touches for a third round selection. Devontae Booker hasn’t been a reliable back as a 3.6 YPC just isn’t going to get it done. Freeman showed he can handle a huge workload in college and be extremely physical while doing it. Freeman is a superior back to Booker and I think it’s only a matter of time until he becomes the starter for the Broncos. I’m predicting him handling the 1st, 2nd and goaline work, while Booker spells Freeman and receives most of the receiving touches. That equates to a pretty solid 18 PPG.
Doug Baldwin has been the model of consistency the last few years in Seattle, being Russell Wilson’s go-to option since emerging in 2015. Baldwin provides one of the safest floors in the NFL and can be counted on weekly for a solid point total. This year will be interesting to watch as the Seahawks didn’t resign red zone threats Jimmy Graham or Paul Richardson. That opens up looks for Baldwin, who could see double-digit touchdowns for the second time in his career. Baldwin isn’t someone who is going to wow you with points, but he’s your prototypical solid 4/5 starter.
To say I was unimpressed with Kenyan Drake coming out of college is an understatement. Certain of his demise as he was just a gadget player going to a horrible offense in Miami, I was certain Drake wasn’t long for the NFL. Welp, by the end of 2017, Drake entered workhorse status and came alive against the Broncos week 13 on. Much more physical than originally thought, Drake enters 2018 with a complete skill set, as he’s also an above average receiver. Drake is a back to watch in preseason games as we have to see how Frank Gore and Kalen Ballage’s presence will hinder Drake’s production. Will Drake surprise again and can he carry a full workload? It’s very possible, but his projection has him splitting carries with Gore and losing goaline looks as well.
People are sleeping on Pierre Garcon has a threat to enter the WR1 conversation. Unfortunately for IFLers, that doesn’t mean insane production due to our scoring, but he’s still a serviceable 4/5 option. Garcon is getting up there in age, but he’s entering arguably the best offense he’s played in since his days in Indianapolis. Jimmy G is going to hone in on Garcon’s elite route running ability as a solid possession receiver and rely on Goodwin to stretch the field. In our league, you want a guy like Garcon to rack up the receptions. At 16 PPG, he’s in line for a career year.
To rely on a Patriots’ running back is asking for trouble. With Sony Michel selected in the first round, I’m having a hard time wrapping my head around Burkhead being a startable option, but with Michel taking over the Dion Lewis role, Burkhead should still have a role in the Patriots offense, especially around the goaline. Burkhead is a very versatile player, as he had 8 touchdowns in 2017, three of which came from receptions. I’m curious to see how many carries Burkhead receives, as it probably will be around 100 or so which is what he was on pace for if he didn’t miss 5 games. Usually, he would just be a bye-week flier type in fantasy leagues, but in IFL he’s a solid back-end starter with boom/bust tendencies.
PK: Dan Bailey 7 PPG
PN: Pat O’Donnell 11 PPG
DT: Malik Jackson 13 PPG
Malik Jackson is one of the most underrated players in the NFL. He is one of the best all-around interior players and players cite his ability to make other lineman’s jobs easier. Jackson is annually a double-digit sack threat, which is one of the few defensive tackles that can say that. He’s one of the premiere members of Sacksonville, and is rearing to go for another excellent campaign. He’s going to ball out again and a top 5 option.
DE: Ezekiel Ansah 15 PPG, Frank Clark 13 PPG
Ezekiel Ansah’s career is defined as up and down. On a yearly basis or even a weekly basis, it’s hard to project what you’ll get from the athletic freak. Ansah has an amazing 6’5, 275-pound stature and a very unique background after attending BYU. He’s struggled with injuries the last two years and was placed on the PUP list at the beginning of training camp, restricting his ability to get ready for the regular season. The train needs to come back on the tracks and stabilize, with more consistency across games. 9 of his 12 sacks came in three games last year, which doesn’t really help fantasy owners. The 15 PPG projection comes with a huge boom/bust asterisk.
Frank Clark is a huge asshole who would be one of the last people I would want to get to know. He’s been accused of domestic violence, repeatedly threatening women across social media and in person. That won’t stop Clark from being a more than a serviceable option in fantasy as he’s expected to take a step forward and be the premier pass rusher for Seattle. His upside has shown through in part-time work, but I’m not sure he will be an elite option at the position as we haven’t seen Seattle’s line produce an elite option in a long time. Clark’s floor will increase, but like many prospects that haven’t produced elite numbers before, I’m not going to project a steep increase in production until he does it.
LB: Mark Barron 15 PPG, Demario Davis 15 PPG, Preston Brown 13 PPG, Patrick Onwuasor 12 PPG
Mark Barron just keeps chugging along with solid, but unspectacular production. Last year he entered as the #2 linebacker in Wade Phillips’ scheme which is usually not a productive place to be for an IDP. Still producing back-end starter numbers, Barron proved that he’s pretty much scheme-proof as long as he’s given the opportunity. Heading into 2018, he should provide 15 PPG again.
Demario Davis’ 2017 was nothing short of amazing, with over 130 tackles and 4.5 sacks. Those top 10 numbers will be hard to replicate, especially in a new 4-3 scheme that has struggled to produce elite IDP backers in recent years. That’s more indicative of the players out there than anything, as the Saints’ MLBers have struggled for the last several seasons. Davis is expected to provide stability and an above average option. A regression, unfortunately, is a near certainty, as Davis isn’t a top 10 real-life player, but his opportunity in New Orleans should make him serviceable on a weekly basis.
As a big Preston Brown fan, it’s disappointing to see him move away from the comfortable confines of Buffalo. He’s produced in a 4-3 and 3-4 scheme admirably, so it’s disappointing to see him go to a scheme I don’t believe will give him the same type of opportunity to produce. The biggest issue that will hold Brown back is whether or not he will be taken off the field on passing downs. We will not know that until Burfict, Brown, and Vigil (or Evans who is challenging for the SLB spot) are all healthy or not suspended. In 2017, it was Burfict and Vigil who stayed on the field. Brown isn’t great in coverage, so I’m worried he’s going to lose ample snaps, which is why he’s barely a startable asset at 13 PPG.
I love Patrick Onwuasor’s story of overcoming a position battle and becoming the starter in Baltimore. It seems like they churn out productive linebackers out of UDFA annually, and Onwuasor is the next out of the lineage. He enters training camp in another roster battle with 4th round rookie Kenny Young, a player many IDP GM’s hope will overtake the 3rd year pro. It’s a position battle to watch, but it’s not for a very valuable spot in the IDP world. Whoever wins the spot will be a 4th option at best.
CB: Darius Slay 13 PPG, Ronald Darby 13 PPG
Darius Slay had an incredible year from both a fantasy and NFL aspect, being an elite option despite still being targeted heavily by offenses. That likely won’t be the case heading into 2018, as the Lions will have a very unproven option starting next to him in Nevin Lawson, Teez Tabor or Deshawn Shead. Still, Matt Patricia’s defense annually produces top 16 options at corner, and Slay is probably in line for another solid season.
Ronald Darby is placed in a situation to succeed, as he’s on a stud muffin team that will be ahead in most games, giving Darby more opportunities for tackles. While he suffered a brutal ankle dislocation that displaced him for over half of 2017, Darby has annually been a top producer at the corner position. He’s not an elite corner, but an above average real-life player that is always on the field. He’s a solid top 16 option.
S: Justin Evans 12 PPG, Lamarcus Joyner 12 PPG
Justin Evans rolled with a rough rookie year with its typical ups and downs, but showed promise that made him a 2nd round pick in ‘17. Playing free safety in a cover 2 scheme limits his upside, but Evans should provide S2 numbers most weeks.
Lamarcus Joyner moved full-time to safety and he produced admirable numbers. Problem is he’s in Wade Phillips purgatory and will constantly be moving around the field with different responsibilities. Joyner recently failed his conditioning test at the beginning of training camp and Joyner’s attitude toward football has been questioned in year’s past. While he’s playing on the franchise tag after a career year, I could see a very disappointing campaign, particularly from a fantasy perspective. He’s entering the season as a precarious S2.
Off: Minnesota Vikings 12 PPG
PPG: 289
Outlook: Cory’s done a fantastic job in his short time in IFL, making savvy trades and producing top-notch content. He enters the 2018 season in a nearly impossible situation to field a quality roster as Aaron had the knowledge base for football comparable to an evangelical’s understanding of evolution. Cory’s team sadly forms one of the worst teams in the AFC and building for a strong 2019 postseason push would be wise. Like Aaron before him, he’s placed in a division with two of the best GM’s in the IFL and will always have stiff competition for the division. I’m very excited to see what he can do.
W-L: 5-11
