I know what you may be thinking “Why would I read a Hitman article when I could hear him say it in that smooth voice?”

I agree with you completely but some things are better put into article format rather than the best podcast to ever hit the IFL airwaves.

Last year the EG crew tossed out a phenomenal data drop about the previous draft and then the Hitman himself threw out one as well.

Well 2020 was not the end!

Let’s review how it works for those that don’t remember or are new…

Dynasty Guru and his Hit Rates

The idea for adjusted scoring came while the Hitman was reading an old article that he came across from The Dynasty Guru about how often rookie draft picks hit (article can be found here).

If you are too lazy to read the article here is the long and short of it:

• Based off how often rookies become fantasy starters
• Data used from 2012-2017
• Hit Rate = at least 1 season at a fantasy starter rank
• This means top 24 RB, top 30 WR, top 12 QB

Dynasty Guru found that the hit rate per round were as follows:

• 1st Round – 45.8%
• 2nd Round – 30.6%
• 3rd Round or After – 9.3%

This was obviously done for leagues that include no IDP players.

The Hitman and his Adjusted Scoring Metric

So looking to expand on this profound work, the Hitman took the guru’s data and expanded it to include IDP players. Since we have a mixed league it is natural to think that a doubling of the round should still rain true.

• 1st & 2nd Round – 45.8%
• 3rd & 4th Round – 30.6%
• 5th Round or After – 9.3%

Taking these hit rates a metric begins to form.

To adjust for actual skill of drafting we must account for how hard it is to find a player of value in each tier of the draft (Day 1, Day 2, Day 3). To do this the Adjusted Scoring metric was created.

Adjusted Scoring is done as follows:

Player points * (1-Round hit rate) = Adjusted Scoring

Example:

Based on 3 year Average Points:

Christian McCaffrey (AFC Pick 1.04)
437.73 pts * (1-.458) = 237.25

Blake Martinez (AFC Pick 5.05)
245.25 pts * (1-.093) = 233.63

Obviously we know that McCaffrey is worth more to a team than Martinez, but we are talking about draft skill here. These two actually rank as the 5th and 6th overall adjusted points respectively in the AFC.

This essentially takes into account that a player of superb caliber in McCaffrey at 1.04 takes the same skill to draft as Blake Martinez at 5.05. I’m sure we can find arguments against this but let’s move on to what all the metric accounts for…

Adjusted Scoring:

PROS of the metric:

• Total points of a player over their rookie contract
• The round the player was drafted in
• Consistent scoring

CONS of the metric:

• Hurts teams that have not been in the league for 3-4 years
• Doesn’t account for position depth
• Players with only 1-2 years of experience may have higher average points if they end up being a flash in the pan

Now that that is out of the way, let’s move on to the data

Historical Adjusted Scoring per Pick per Franchise

To see full size images, right click on it and click “Open in New Tab”

AFC 2020

AFC 2021 Update

NFC 2020

NFC 2021 Update

As you can see the adjusted scoring per pick represents that average amount of points over a 4 year period that a franchise can expect from each pick that they make.

Teams that miss in the first round get hurt worse than a team that misses in the 7th, and a team that consistently hits with mid-round picks is shown to be more fruitful than one that drafts a mediocre first round talent.

Overall Individual Player Adjusted Points

AFC TOP 25 Players Ever
(Based on Average Points in League Career)

Round	Pick	OVR	FRANCHISE	PLAYER	Average Real Points	Average Adjusted Points
3	6	37	Las Vegas Raiders – Craig	Herbert, Justin	486.80	337.84
3	10	42	Los Angeles Chargers – Decker	Watson, Deshaun	439.80	305.22
3	9	41	Miami Dolphins – Brad	Mahomes, Patrick	417.89	290.01
3	2	34	Buffalo Bills – Travis	Allen, Josh	405.80	281.63
3	14	46	Houston Texans – Peru	Wentz, Carson	384.79	267.04
1	11	11	Denver Broncos – David	Murray, Kyler	480.68	260.53
3	1	33	Miami Dolphins – Brad	Mayfield, Baker	356.07	247.11
5	5	69	Los Angeles Chargers – Decker	Martinez, Blake	257.59	233.63
1	1	1	Miami Dolphins – Brad	Elliott, Ezekiel	414.00	224.39
5	6	77	Cleveland Browns – Kyle	Bates, Jessie	242.12	219.60
2	15	31	Baltimore Ravens – Matt	Jackson, Lamar	404.08	219.01
1	7	7	New England Patriots – Mark	Kamara, Alvin	386.61	209.54
4	9	61	Buffalo Bills – Travis	Jones, Daniel	286.95	199.14
4	9	61	Jacksonville Jaguars – Nate	Trubisky, Mitchell	282.41	195.99
1	4	4	Jacksonville Jaguars – Nate	McCaffrey, Christian	358.68	194.40
3	5	37	Houston Texans – Peru	Jones, Aaron	268.58	186.39
1	6	6	Los Angeles Chargers – Decker	Thomas, Michael	326.78	177.11
4	14	66	Los Angeles Chargers – Decker	Watt, T.J.	255.10	177.04
2	6	22	New York Jets – Aaron	Goff, Jared	326.56	177.00
1	15	15	Pittsburgh Steelers – Spencer	Leonard, Darius	325.58	176.47
6	5	85	Los Angeles Chargers – Decker	Byard, Kevin	194.40	176.32
5	3	67	Cleveland Browns – Kyle	Bell, Vonn	193.19	175.22
6	10	90	Baltimore Ravens – Matt	Campbell, De’Vondre	192.45	174.55
6	15	105	Los Angeles Chargers – Decker	Brown, Jayon	191.69	173.86
1	1	1	Cincinnati Bengals – Danny	Jacobs, Josh	320.00	173.44
1	3	3	Jacksonville Jaguars – Nate	Chubb, Nick	319.17	172.99

NFC TOP 25 Players Ever
(Based on Average Points in League Career)

Round	Pick	OVR	FRANCHISE	PLAYER	Average Real Points	Average Adjusted Points
6	14	94	New York Giants – Djordan	Prescott, Dak	424.575	385.089525
3	11	43	Detroit Lions – Nate	Herbert, Justin	486.8	337.8392
3	19	51	Los Angeles Rams – Andy	Mahomes, Patrick	417.8875	290.013925
4	14	66	Detroit Lions – Nate	Allen, Josh	405.8	281.6252
3	3	35	Detroit Lions – Mac	Wentz, Carson	384.7875	267.042525
1	7	7	San Francisco 49ers – Josh	Murray, Kyler	480.675	260.52585
2	13	29	Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Luke	Watson, Deshaun	439.8	238.3716
5	7	71	Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Luke	Martinez, Blake	257.5875	233.6318625
1	1	1	Dallas Cowboys – Brian O.	Elliott, Ezekiel	414	224.388
5	8	79	Carolina Panthers – Nils	Bates, Jessie	242.1166667	219.5998167
2	13	29	Seattle Seahawks – Will	Jackson, Lamar	404.0833333	219.0131667
1	1	10	Arizona Cardinals – Jai	Kamara, Alvin	386.6125	209.543975
6	3	83	Chicago Bears – Nic	Schobert, Joe	220.0625	199.5966875
3	8	40	Atlanta Falcons – Floyd	Jones, Daniel	286.95	199.1433
4	9	61	New Orleans Saints – Carlos	Trubisky, Mitchell	282.4125	195.994275
1	3	3	Los Angeles Rams – Andy	McCaffrey, Christian	358.675	194.40185
1	15	15	San Francisco 49ers – Josh	Mayfield, Baker	356.0666667	192.9881333
3	1	42	Arizona Cardinals – Jai	Jones, Aaron	268.575	186.39105
5	3	74	San Francisco 49ers – Josh	Hubbard, Sam	198.7833333	180.2964833
1	7	7	Green Bay Packers – Barry	Thomas, Michael	326.775	177.11205
4	12	64	Green Bay Packers – Barry	Watt, T.J.	255.1	177.0394
2	1	17	Los Angeles Rams – Andy	Goff, Jared	326.5625	176.996875
1	11	11	Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Luke	Leonard, Darius	325.5833333	176.4661667
5	12	76	Seattle Seahawks – Will	Bell, Vonn	193.1875	175.2210625
6	6	86	Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Luke	Campbell, De’Vondre	192.45	174.55215

As you can see QBs tend to have high value when they hit later (3rd round on). Let’s take out QBs to get another look.

AFC TOP 25 Players Ever excluding QBs
(Based on Average Points in League Career)

Round	Pick	OVR	FRANCHISE	PLAYER	Average Real Points	Average Adjusted Points
5	5	69	Los Angeles Chargers – Decker	Martinez, Blake	257.59	233.63
1	1	1	Miami Dolphins – Brad	Elliott, Ezekiel	414	224.39
5	6	77	Cleveland Browns – Kyle	Bates, Jessie	242.12	219.6
1	7	7	New England Patriots – Mark	Kamara, Alvin	386.61	209.54
1	4	4	Jacksonville Jaguars – Nate	McCaffrey, Christian	358.68	194.4
3	5	37	Houston Texans – Peru	Jones, Aaron	268.58	186.39
1	6	6	Los Angeles Chargers – Decker	Thomas, Michael	326.78	177.11
4	14	66	Los Angeles Chargers – Decker	Watt, T.J.	255.1	177.04
1	15	15	Pittsburgh Steelers – Spencer	Leonard, Darius	325.58	176.47
6	5	85	Los Angeles Chargers – Decker	Byard, Kevin	194.4	176.32
5	3	67	Cleveland Browns – Kyle	Bell, Vonn	193.19	175.22
6	10	90	Baltimore Ravens – Matt	Campbell, De’Vondre	192.45	174.55
6	15	105	Los Angeles Chargers – Decker	Brown, Jayon	191.69	173.86
1	1	1	Cincinnati Bengals – Danny	Jacobs, Josh	320	173.44
1	3	3	Jacksonville Jaguars – Nate	Chubb, Nick	319.17	172.99
7	8	114	Oakland Raiders – Mark Prendo	Johnson, John	190.56	172.84
5	7	78	New York Jets – Cory	Payne, Da’Ron	190.52	172.8
2	5	21	Indianapolis Colts – Erik	Allen, Josh	405.8	172.06
1	2	2	New York Jets – Cory	Taylor, Jonathan	312.2	169.21
7	13	119	Miami Dolphins – Brad	King, Desmond	186.49	169.14
5	15	86	Cincinnati Bengals – Danny	White, Tre’Davious	185.46	168.21
5	18	89	Cincinnati Bengals – Danny	Crosby, Maxx	185.15	167.93
3	18	50	Cleveland Browns – Kyle	Baker, Jerome	237.92	165.11
7	7	113	Oakland Raiders – Mark Prendo	Jackson, Eddie	181.95	165.03
7	7	113	Kansas City Chiefs – Curt	Willis, Khari	181.83	164.92

NFC TOP 25 Players Ever excluding QBs
(Based on Average Points in League Career)

Round	Pick	OVR	FRANCHISE	PLAYER	Average Real Points	Average Adjusted Points
5	7	71	Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Luke	Martinez, Blake	257.588	233.632
1	1	1	Dallas Cowboys – Brian O.	Elliott, Ezekiel	414	224.388
5	8	79	Carolina Panthers – Nils	Bates, Jessie	242.117	219.6
1	1	10	Arizona Cardinals – Jai	Kamara, Alvin	386.613	209.544
6	3	83	Chicago Bears – Nic	Schobert, Joe	220.063	199.597
1	3	3	Los Angeles Rams – Andy	McCaffrey, Christian	358.675	194.402
3	1	42	Arizona Cardinals – Jai	Jones, Aaron	268.575	186.391
5	3	74	San Francisco 49ers – Josh	Hubbard, Sam	198.783	180.296
1	7	7	Green Bay Packers – Barry	Thomas, Michael	326.775	177.112
4	12	64	Green Bay Packers – Barry	Watt, T.J.	255.1	177.039
1	11	11	Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Luke	Leonard, Darius	325.583	176.466
5	12	76	Seattle Seahawks – Will	Bell, Vonn	193.188	175.221
6	6	86	Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Luke	Campbell, De’Vondre	192.45	174.552
7	7	113	Washington Redskins – Brian G.	Brown, Jayon	191.688	173.861
1	1	1	Washington Redskins – Dan	Jacobs, Josh	320	173.44
1	9	9	Detroit Lions – Nate	Chubb, Nick	319.167	172.988
5	7	78	San Francisco 49ers – Josh	Payne, Da’Ron	190.517	172.799
1	2	2	Washington Football Team – Dan	Taylor, Jonathan	312.2	169.212
7	13	119	Detroit Lions – Mac	King, Desmond	186.488	169.144
6	8	98	Atlanta Falcons – Floyd	White, Tre’Davious	185.463	168.214
5	11	82	New Orleans Saints – Carlos	Crosby, Maxx	185.15	167.931
4	12	64	Carolina Panthers – Nils	Baker, Jerome	237.917	165.114
6	15	105	Detroit Lions – Mac	Jackson, Eddie	181.95	165.029
5	8	79	Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Luke	Willis, Khari	181.825	164.915
7	11	117	New Orleans Saints – Carlos	Holcomb, Cole	180.25	163.487

The Wrap Up

Listen the Hitman could go on forever with these stats and compare players and values such as how these two values and draft skill levels are equal:

Round	Pick	OVR	FRANCHISE	PLAYER	Average Adjusted Points
1	1	1	Chicago Bears – Nic	Fournette, Leonard JAC RB	157.5774667
5	7	78	San Francisco 49ers – Josh	Payne, Da’Ron WAS DT	157.477875

But we must move on.

I thank you all for reading and feel free to drop me any suggestions that you feel may help the process.

Also here is the link to view the entire spreadsheet so that you all can dig into it as much as you would like:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vR3qqnOm_MyPzJhrSD1o-tDDXTluP2lhXFJjMrSul6fHtEsdOOq4QO2qAegZM6wEA/pubhtml?widget=true&headers=false

Thanks,

The Hitman