Coach: Frank Reich 6 PPG
QB: Trevor Lawrence 26 PPG
Trevor Lawrence was expected to be a surefire no-chance bust type of QB prospect, but not even he could overcome the Urban Meyer experience. In what may go down as the worst head coaching tenure of the decade, Lawrence’s rookie season can’t be viewed as anything other than an unmitigated disaster. He finished with a mindfuck 10/17 TD/INT ratio and finished 30th in competition percentage at 59.6%. Granted he was throwing to a band of receivers that couldn’t be 6th string options at Clemson, but there’s still pause for concern for being this bad. At 18 PPG in 2021, he was not startable, so moving him toward the 26 PPG mark is a bet that he’ll finally maximize on his potential. If TLaw struggles continue in 2022, he’ll be trending into one of the most shocking draft pick busts of our generation.
RB/WR/TE: Najee Harris 26 PPG, Austin Ekeler 23 PPG, Diontae Johnson 19 PPG, Miles Sanders 17 PPG and DK Metcalf 15 PPG 6th men: Jakobi Meyers 14 PPG, Parris Campbell 12 PPG, Skyy Moore 12 PPG, Garrett Wilson 12 PPG, Kenneth Walker III 11 PPG, Treylon Burks 11 PPG, Byron Pringle 10 PPG
Najee Harris received the largest workload given to a rookie back and he delivered with a RB2 overall season. His insane 296 carry, 70 reception season kept the engine revving on a sputtering offense. In what was regarded as the league’s worst offensive line and a barely moving Big Ben, Najee has received slack for not doing more with his opportunity. As someone who watched plenty of Najee, I would say his lack of success was more of a product of his rushing lanes versus his actual talent. With only 10 total touchdowns, it’s very possible that total creeps forward, even though it’s very possible the Steelers manage his workload a bit more in 2022. Najee is arguably the most valuable IFL asset south of Jonathan Taylor. He possesses league-winning upside if the Steelers’ offense can resemble an average unit.
It feels like it took 84 years, but Austin Ekeler finally stayed (mostly) healthy and was able to deliver on his RB1 ceiling. He was graced with the perfect blend of opportunity and touchdown luck. He notched 18 total touchdowns, which tied Jonathan Taylor for the league lead. (7 receiving and an incredible 11 TDs on just 190 carries.) Ekeler has only been a full-blown starter for a pair of seasons and has struggled a bit to stay healthy. Now heading into his age 27 season, there are some red flags that regression will be coming the way of touchdowns and perhaps additional injury issues. The Chargers have a heated competition for spelling Ekeler and spent a 4th round pick on Texas A&M star Isaiah Spiller. All that being said, he is undoubtedly a top 20 RB/WR/TE when healthy, but I wouldn’t bet on him finishing as a top 5 running back again when he’s only receiving 200ish carries.
I’m a bit surprised Diontae Johnson received a contract extension from the fickle Steelers organization. Perhaps it’s a pivot away from the frugal spending strategy they’ve operated in recent memory. That being said, they likely see the importance of providing their rookie QB ample weapons to develop. Johnson has quietly ascended into one of the elite receivers in the game as he’s been peppered with targets the last two seasons. At 169 targets, he tied Davante Adams for the most targets in the NFL in 2021. Granted, he gained much less yardage with his receptions compared to Davante Adams, Justin Jefferson and Stefon Diggs, but he was also playing with an inferior quarterback as well. Now with Trubs throwing him the ball, it can’t be any worse than 2021 Big Ben. He’s staying right in line with his high target PPR delux projection.
It was a wild year for Miles Sanders, who didn’t reach the endzone and missed a month’s worth of games. His grasp on the starting running back position is precarious at best, as there have been reports of Gainwell receiving 1st team love and head coach Nick Sirianni wearing a Kenneth Gainwell t-shirt. (Not sure how much you want to read into that, but it’s noteable.) With such a tragic 2021, we need to backtrack a bit and recognize that Sanders did not even score at all last year. So long as he remains the starter and that is certainly the most likely scenario at this point, he’s very much a fantasy option. There’s a wide range of outcomes and the floor is low, but Sanders is hanging onto that starting role for at least one more year.
All aboard the struggle bus for DK Metcalf. After two ascending seasons for the Seahawks star, he took a step back with Russell Wilson dealing with a broken finger. Now with the league’s worst QB situation, it’s looking like he will be posting barely startable numbers. The biggest focus needs to be on his target numbers. Metcalf is not a reception monster by any means, as his career high came in 2020 with 83 catches on 129 targets. In a run-heavy offense, I would be surprised if we saw him eclipse that total. Fingers crossed he’ll be utilized in the red zone at a higher clip, as he barely finished in the top 30 in the NFL in targets inside the 20. Until he receives a new QB, there’s not much hope for anything more than a 5th starter/bye-week fill-in.
PK: Greg Zuerlein 7 PPG
PN: Riley Dixon 9 PPG
DT: Larry Ogunjobi 14 PPG
Larry Ogunjobi’s success out of the football powerhouse Charlotte is Cinderella-esque. He proved he belonged in the league by balling out a bit in Cleveland before taking his talents to Cincinnati on his second contract. There he posted a career-high seven sacks and 49 total tackles, resulting in a DT7 finish. The Bengals elected to not resign him and he was going to join the Bears before a failed physical. He recently signed with the Steelers to form a competent interior tandem with Cameron Heyward. (An incredible solution to the Stefon Tuitt retirement.) This was arguably a best-case scenario landing spot for Larry, who will likely receive all the snaps he can handle, and Steelers interior players have a lengthy history of IDP success. I like him to repeat as a top 10 option.
DE: Matt Judon 17 PPG, Josh Allen 15 PPG
The IDP position changes benefitted a select few and Matt Judon is near the top of the list. The pass rusher from Grand Valley State was arguably the best defender on the Patriots last year and was a key cog in the machine that returned them to the playoffs. Judon’s 42 total pressures ranked 9th in the NFL and he converted 12.5 of them into sacks. With the tackle bonus caked in, he’s locked and loaded for a top 10 DE season. He was one of the best buys in the IFL this offseason. I hope you were paying attention. (Erik and Nils were.)
It was a delicious season for Josh Allen, whose high tackle numbers spearheaded a top 10 EDGE season. That being said, his 7.5 sacks were less than stellar, and only finished 60th in total pressures with 23. I’m a bit concerned regression is going to come this year unless he can bump those pressure numbers back to his rookie year heights of 39. (Which ranked 11th in the NFL.) He’s staying in the low-end DE1 conversation, but on a bad team, those pass rush situations may be few and far between.
LB: Blake Martinez 19 PPG, Nicholas Morrow 17 PPG, Devin Bush 12 PPG
Let’s talk about arguably the best buy low of the offseason, Blake Martinez. The LB5 in 2020, LB10 in 2019 and LB5 in 2019 sadly tore his ACL early on in 2021 which threw one of the elite linebackers off the board. Returning to form has been the goal this offseason and has been practicing without restriction since training camp began. Prior to the injury, Martinez had been one of the most durable players at LBer, with four straight seasons of sixteen games played. The only thing that gives me pause is the defensive scheme change, with more man coverage looks projected to have him take a small step back in the PPG department. (Baked into his projection.) That being said, there are few bets for guaranteed production than Martinez and he’ll slide right back into the elite tier of the IDP ranks.
Nicolas Morrow didn’t even play in 2021, but he now finds himself in an incredible situation for IDP success. Almost guaranteed a full-time role before training camp began, Eberflus hasn’t held back praise when talking about the former Raider. Every offseason, there are 3-4 linebackers that find IDP relevancy due to increased opportunity. (Cody Barton also comes to mind.) Morrow slides right into Bobby Okereke’s old role in this defense. It’s an easy projection and if he stays healthy, he’ll likely hit over 1,000 snaps. A high-floor option and high-end LB2 season are in his future on opportunity alone.
Devin Bush is holding onto a starting role by a thread. He’s in a heated battle with Robert Spillane for the 2nd linebacker job in Pittsburgh. The Steelers declined his 5th-year option, pointing to divorce after the season. Bush just hasn’t been able to translate his athleticism to the NFL level and has been inconsistent in every facet of the game. It’s not like the Steelers didn’t want to give him every opportunity to succeed after trading up for him in 2018. He’s just no good. Sell him for whatever you can before it’s too late. Fingers crossed he can reclaim some value in 2022 and perhaps be a near full-time backer. At a bye-week filler 12 PPG, I’m not holding my breath.
CB: Derek Stingley Jr. 11 PPG, Jaycee Horn 11 PPG
The Texans needed desperate help in their overmatched secondary and hopefully, they got some from perhaps the best player in the draft. Singley didn’t play at all in 2021, but from what we saw early in his college career, he’s primed as the next elite corner. He’ll be tasked to be a starter from day one. There’s a wide range of outcomes and hopefully, he’s closer to Jalen Ramsey than Jeff Okudah. On opportunity alone, he’ll be a startable option.
Jaycee Horn’s foot issues keep plaguing him from playing heavy snaps. Reports out of Carolina speak of his insane skill and it’s very possible he breaks out in 2022. Activated off the PUP list early in training camp, the arrow is pointing up for him to being to produce as a full-time option. Look for him to be a near-top 32 corner right off the jump and keep an eye on how his tackle numbers shake out.
S: Kevin Byard 15 PPG, Budda Baker 15 PPG, Kyle Hamilton 14 PPG
Every year, Kevin Byard continues to deliver elite safety seasons despite playing the majority of his snaps at free safety. He’s a turnover and big play machine and his two touchdowns last year propelled him to a stellar S3 finish. Byard is an annual 80-100 total tackle player and chips in 4-8 INTs for good measure. While he lacks the upside of Derwin James’ usage, Byard slides nicely into your S1 role for your IDP squad.
Budda Baker continues to deliver the goods as one of the most reliable options at safety. His consistency in the tackle department and wide variety of sacks, INTs and forced fumbles annually provide a competent floor and 30+ point ceiling. While Baker’s tackle ceiling doesn’t match his buddy Jalen Thompson, they both are tasked with plenty of box snaps. Baker may be the more talented of the two and plays a wider variety of roles, limiting his statistical opportunity. Regardless, Budda will eat.
The Kyle Hamilton conundrum. Arguably the most hyped IDP rookie safety of all time, we saw him go in the 1st round in both the AFC and NFC. Hamilton has astronomical expectations to perform as a linebacker right from the get-go and I am very worried his GMs may come away disappointed. To perform to his draft status, 250+ points is the expectation. Box snaps need to be plentiful and he must play 100% of the snaps. If Hamilton struggles, it’s very possible Chuck Clark and Marcus Williams play 100% of the snaps, with Hamilton coming in on certain packages. There is also the playcalling battle that is currently underway in Baltimore and it’s very possible Chuck Clark continues to call the plays in 2022. Tough projection and a bit of year one risk.
Off: Indianapolis Colts 14 PPG
PPG: 322
W-L: 10-7
This is a very Erik team. It’s good, but not great. He has quality options across the roster but falls flat at linebacker and quarterback. Erik’s flexible and can instantly upgrade almost any position with 4 1s, 5 2s and 5 3s in the 2023 draft. As it stands now, he’s likely in the thick of the wild card hunt, with a chance to become a championship contender if things break right for the IFL veteran. It’s hard to bet against Erik, whose success in the league rivals the best of us. I think he has his team right where he wants it.
