Coach: Dan Campbell 7 PPG
QB: Joe Burrow 33 PPG
For the Bengals, it was another typical disappointing effort, where the team couldn’t really get out of its own way. The defense couldn’t get it’s footing and their typical early season struggles stopped their talented roster from even making the postseason. That didn’t stop Joe Burrow from going Supernova and putting the team on his back. While he wasn’t seriously in the MVP conversation, he probably should have been. He cleared the 2nd place finisher, Jared Goff, in passing yards by almost 300 yards (4918), 2nd place Baker Mayfield in completions by 53 (460), and 2nd in Lamar Jackson in passing TDs by 2 (43). With Ja’Marr and Tee locked up long-term, Burrow profiles as a top 5 annual QB in perpetuity. He’s one of the true set it and forget it options.
RB/WR/TE: James Cook 21 PPG, Travis Kelce 19 PPG, Breece Hall 19 PPG, JK Dobbins 17 PPG, Christian Kirk 13 PPG 6th men: Travis Etienne 13 PPG, Braelon Allen 11 PPG, Romeo Doubs 11 PPG, DeAndre Hopkins 10 PPG, Darren Waller 10 PPG, Tre Harris 7 PPG, Michael Mayer 5 PPG
James Cook was a questionable prospect a couple of years ago. He’s been a part of this wave of sub-200 lb running backs providing fantasy value. (Gibbs, Kyren, etc.) For the 2nd straight year, Cook received over 200 carries, 1000 rushing yards and 30+ receptions. 2024 saw a MASSIVE progression in the rushing TD category, tying for 1st in the NFL with 16 rushing tuddies. His 29 attempts inside the 10 ranked 9th pointing that this will not be something that will all of a sudden vanish either. Cook is locked in as an elite fantasy asset moving forward, but there likely will be a bit of a regression in the TD category. He’s a top 32 RB/WR/TE for a Bills team that’ll finish as a top 5 offense.
Everyone and their mother is predicting the regression of Travis Kelce… I’m sadly here to tell you it’s far off base. Kelce received horrible TD luck, finishing 4th in the NFL with 25 redzone looks, but only scored 3 TDs. While he took a step back in the receiving yards department, finishing with the lowest yardage total of his career, it still equated to a 18 PPG production. Even if the yardage and targets don’t fall off a cliff, I don’t see a reason to think otherwise, Kelce is going to continue to be a mighty fine #3 for a championship caliber offense. Enjoy watching his numbers tally up during primetime games again this year.
Breece Hall is quite the conundrum. Once touted as the next elite fantasy football asset, an ACL tear in 2022 derailed his uber productive rookie season and he struggled to get his footing back in 2023. 2024 was, unfortunately, more of the same, as evidenced by a plodding 4.19 YPC. Hall’s value is now at a turning point, with a potential timeshare in the cards. Aaron Glenn comes from a timeshare running back approach and appears to be learning toward a three-running back room in the same mold as what they had in Detroit. Hall will certainly still be at the top of this committee but his upside in an offense with a rushing QB and a physical back possibly taking away goaline carries is concerning. For now, Hall slots in as a #3 RB/WR/TE in a lineup, but has a ceiling for more, especially if the Jets become one of the most run heavy teams in the NFL.
Injuries and overcoming adversity have marred JK Dobbins’ career. We finally got to see what he is capable of when he leads a running back room for an extended period of time. The 26-year-old was the RB1 for the run heavy unit in LA, averaging over 20 PPG before an MCL sprain derailed his season for 4 games. He was not retained by the Chargers, as they opted to select his replacement in the draft, but was picked up by the Broncos in May, a massive fantasy win for his 2025 prospects. Denver does not have an established running back, and training camp will decide what role each back serves this season. For now, Dobbins is a tough projection, but I think he edges out the incumbents and rookie RJ Harvey for the bulk of the carries.
Christian Kirk has seen some fantasy success as recently as 2022, when he posted a quality 84 target, 1108 yard, 8 TD year. Last year was not going that direction, averaging a middling 10.7 PPG through 7 ½ games before a broken collarbone ended the season. Kirk was signed to directly replace Dell, a role that has questionable fantasy value as we saw Dell take a step back from his rookie season, averaging 12.8 PPG over 14 games before the knee implosion. We’ve seen the #2 receiver in Houston under CJ Stroud have starting fantasy success, but there are many landmines for Kirk. He must beat out two tantalizing rookies in Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel. If the offense doesn’t take a step forward either, Kirk is best case a bye-week streamer. Ultimately, that’s probably where he lands.
PK: Evan McPherson 7 PPG
PN: Michael Dickson 11 PPG
DT: Jeffery Simmons 18 PPG (Calais Campbell 12 PPG, Grady Jarrett 10 PPG)
The Titans may have been absolute dog shit, but Jeffery Simmons had himself a career year. While he didn’t have many pressures (15) or many sacks (5), he stepped up in the tackles department, setting a career high 77 stops to go along with 2 forced fumbles. They transitioned to a 20 PPG output and exactly the type of DT to look for in a league that provides 3.5 points per solo tackle. I’m not sure Simmons can produce like this again tackle wise, but it’s good to see he’s capable. I think he’s in line for a small regression, but he’s still an elite asset.
DE:TJ Watt 18 PPG, Micah Parsons 18 PPG (Trey Hendrickson 16 PPG)
I really want to be ballsy and give Watt a large regression, but I don’t think we’re quite there yet. TJ’s pressure numbers last season ranked 20th in the NFL with just 31, slotting in between YaYa Diaby and Leonard Williams. That is not what we’ve come to expect from the perennial All-Pro, but his sack numbers still remained at a quality 11.5. His tackle numbers also remained stable with 61 total stops, and he posted an absurd 6 forced fumbles. At 18 PPG, that still ranks him well within the top 10 EDGEs, but I’m hesitant to post him close to the EDGE1 moving forward.
The Dallas Cowboys were hit big time by the injury bug, losing their QB and star pass rusher Micah Parsons for extended periods of time. Parsons missed 4 games due to a high ankle sprain, but balled out upon his return. Despite missing nearly a quarter of the season, he still finished with more pressures than Myles Garrett, with 46 (3rd in the NFL), and tallied 12 sacks. What keeps Parsons out of the Godly tier of EDGE-dom is his passable tackle numbers, which range from 60-70 over an entire season. We still haven’t seen the truly elite sack season from Micah yet, but at only 26, that is coming. Why not 2025?
LB: Fred Warner 22 PPG, Roquan Smith 20 PPG, Frankie Luvu 17 PPG, Akeem Davis-Gaither 13 PPG (Jerome Baker 7 PPG, Danny Stutsman 7 PPG, Eric Kendricks N/A)
Fred Warner continued to let the IDP world on fire with his combination of tackle and big play prowess. While we have schmucks who are a part of our game because of opportunity purposes alone, you can tell the impact Warner makes by looking at the box score. 2024 was no different, as Warner tallied, 4 forced fumbles, 2 INTs 1 sack and a tuddy. Curiously, ALL of those big plays occurred before week 7. Toward the end of the year, it was revealed what Warner had been playing with a fractured ankle since week 4, but he still toughed through it. If he continued on the torrid pace when he was healthy, it would have been circa 2018 when Darius Leonard was in his heyday. Give me Fred to finish as this year’s LB1. (Shame about his week 14 bye, tho)
Over the years, I’ve been pretty critical of Roquan’s abilities, particularly as a run stopper while in Chicago. Thankfully, that has not transitioned to his time in Baltimore, but his tackle numbers have taken a small step back. That has resulted in him being more of a mid-range LB1 versus at the top of the linebacker rankings, but he’s still a superstud. For Smith to reclaim the top of the rankings again, he’ll need to deliver additional big plays, as he’s only tallied three of them each of the past two years.
Frankie Luvu joined the Commanders after earning his stripes under the Panthers’ flag, and man, did he make an impact for their defense in year one. Luvu is utilized as a hybrid player, playing about a third of his snaps along the dline. That caps his upside a bit, resulting in an old school style 3-4 EDGE rusher feel to him as a LBer in the IFL. When he sacks the quarterback, which he did 8 times in 2024, expect a boom week. On occasion, when he doesn’t, such as in week 17, he will post a 1.50 total. Last year, even out to the top 32 LBer numbers, and you’ll take that with an economical contract.
Tough projection here, as we just don’t know what Akeem Davis-Gaither’s role will be as of this writing. AKG signed a 2-year $10 million contract this offseason, which is now hilariously more than what previous teammate and starter Germaine Pratt signed with the Raiders ($4.2 APY) He will be tasked with proving he belongs on the field, perhaps full time as the green dot playcaller. He doesn’t have much competition, but the two main guys appear to be rookie Cody Simon and hybrid starter Mack Wilson. There is hesitancy from beat writers that Mack will transition to the green dot, as the Cardinals like his versatility along the dline, so AKG may actually be the favorite. That’s why he’s currently sitting at 13 PPG. If he lands the green dot, his PPG will shoot up.
CB: Cooper DeJean 12 PPG, Trent McDuffie 11 PPG (Ugo Amadi 10 PPG, Riley Moss 10 PPG, Renardo Green 9 PPG)
Cooper DeJean’s burst onto the scene with a pair of viral moments. One, was when he open field body slammed Derrick Henry and the other was his pick 6 on Mahomes in the Super Bowl. From a fantasy perspective, he provided a stable floor as the slot corner for the Eagles. This year, his role is a bit in flux as it appears he’ll play on the outside on base down and in the slot in nickel. There is a possibility, however, that he becomes a full-time boundary corner, which would depreciate his value. There is also talk of him playing some safety snaps, which wouldn’t hurt either. For now, he’s a quality corner prospect who will never be leaving the field moving forward.
Trent McDuffie was once one of the elite fantasy corners in the game, but unfortunately, he lost production when he became an exclusively outside option. Still, he plays for one of the most consistent teams in the NFL, and opposing teams will have to throw against them regularly. McDuffie, with the relegated fantasy role, still was a passable option, tallying 59 tackles, 1 FF, 2 INTs, and 13 PDs. He has developed quite a reputation for being a quality player, so it may be tough for him to regain serious fantasy value, but he’s not off the radar.
S: Tyrann Mathieu 12 PPG, Chauncey Gardner-Johnson 12 PPG (Chamarri Conner 12 PPG, Coby Bryant 10 PPG, Damar Hamlin 9 PPG)
It’s been a minute since the Honey Badger posted a quality IDP season, but there’s hope he can actualize some more value than last year’s mid-10 PPG. His 62 total tackles across 17 healthy games aren’t up to snuff, and there were far too many bust weeks. A new scheme is in town, but new teammate safety Justin Reid primarily plays a box safety role. That isn’t set in stone, and both may be utilized across the formation as many safeties do, but don’t expect Mathieu to become an elite option again.
Chauncey Gardner-Johnson has been a consistently mid fantasy safety over his career, and 2024 was no different. While in Philly, he was the typical, boom/bust safety, providing 6 INTs, most of which came toward the end of the year. He totaled only 59 tackles, which is in line with his career norms as well. Now in Houston, he’ll be tasked with replacing Jimmie Ward, mostly playing a deep alignment. He’ll be a fine bye-week option or big play hope.
Off: Cincinnati Bengals 13 PPG
PPG: 333
W-L: 11-6
X-Factor: Finding those pesky back-end starters to round out the stars before September.
Brad slayed free agency to put his team back into contention. Burrow, Warner, Watt, Kelce, and CMC all somehow found their way to South Beach. Additionally, his recent trade of shipping off CMC for JK Dobbins, Roquan, and Hendrickson balanced out his roster. On the flip side, the Deepfuckingvalue guy is gonna have to really dig deep to find a 5th starter, but Kirk has received positive buzz as a potential #2 in Houston, and we’ve seen Tank Dell (RIP) succeed as a fantasy factor with that opportunity. This is a very modern-day Brad team and he’ll find himself in the thick of it come December.
